The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[sinews]

We're all just spinning the wheels at this point and I appreciate all the discourse. I've learned a lot from this thread. 

 

Admittedly I'm going on feels and vibes here but I truly think GMAP will go against the grain, the dominant narrative, which means not drafting JD. In my eyes, taking JD will tell me they're more interested in immediate returns rather than building and from everything I've heard thus far they sound a lot more future-oriented than that. Perhaps they can do both and that's what they're hoping?

 

Nothing is finished here, Keim specifically said that these 30 visits next week are super important and can be the "x" factor. They may be leaning but it's not decided, I don't believe at all that it's settled which is why I'm still very skeptical of all this noise, especially the intensity of it all. In my contrarian mind, the more Daniels smoke, the more likely it *won't* be him. Of course, I could be totally wrong. 

 

But here's the thing to keep in mind: we're all fans of the team before individual players, or ideally that's what a fan should be about (if they're serious about a particular team). So if it's Daniels I will certainly find a way to be excited and look forward to what he brings. It won't be a difficult task but parts of his game will still concern me, unless and until proven otherwise. 

 

But this has all been fascinating and as others have mentioned, this debate will likely follow into the season and beyond, for better or worse.

 

All of this heated discussion has me longing for the simpler days of Russell Okung vs. Trent Williams lol. Who would have thought way back then that one would end up a HOF? 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, mac8887 said:

If the pick is Daniels then that probably has something to do with it. It does fascinate me how Maye can make these amazing throws and then miss a wide open quick out. With the way the league is being more driven by analytics I can see why this would be concerning to teams. In baseball, which is the most analytically driven league by far, consistency is king. It’s one of the reasons you never see a knuckleball anymore.

 

The analytics stuff would cut both ways though. You can't (or I should say shouldn't) rely on analytics for one QB and then ignore them for another. Daniels has a lot of red flags in his analytics. Breakout age, pressure to sack ratio, percentage of times he runs vs throws when pressured. 

[SoCalSkins]

12 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Because Dan Quinn got lit up by a mobile/athletic QB in the playoffs and sees the same in Daniels and is saying I WANT ONE

I think he looks back at his most success when he had Matt Ryan. He also looks at the guy that carved him up when the score was 28-3 in the Super Bowl.  He wants one of those guys. 

[CommanderInTheRye]

1 hour ago, Idaho fan said:

...OR they will go to a commercial and just let us know when they come back before talking about the Patriots.  lol

 

 

For once, I believe, circumstances are in our favor and we will not be forced to endure a replay of our seemingly perpetual draft day indignities of the past.

 

This year, for the first time in recent memory, the biggest remaining drama in the top ten selections is who we will pick. 

 

It will effect everything that comes afterward. Including whether or not the Patriots decide to trade their pick and who is most interested in moving up-- be that the Vikings, Giants, Raiders, or some mystery team.

 

It's in the network's and the NFL's best interest to pander to this national obsession, by keeping the cameras rolling and the prognosticators talking, right up until some lucky young man walks across the stage, shakes Goodell's hand, and dons a burgundy and gold Commanders cap.

 

Should be great tv.

 

 

Edited April 11 by CommanderInTheRye

[jg77]

9 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

The analytics stuff would cut both ways though. You can't (or I should say shouldn't) rely on analytics for one QB and then ignore them for another. Daniels has a lot of red flags in his analytics. Breakout age, pressure to sack ratio, percentage of times he runs vs throws when pressured. 

A poster here already debunked this.

[RWJ]

Maye 1A, McCarthy 1B.  No to stick man.  

[mistertim]

2 minutes ago, jg77 said:

A poster here already debunked this.

 

Nobody has debunked anything. It's a factual number. Replying to it and basically saying "well, I don't buy it" doesn't count as "debunking".

Edited April 11 by mistertim

[mac8887]

Just now, mistertim said:

 

The analytics stuff would cut both ways though. You can't (or I should say shouldn't) rely on analytics for one QB and then ignore them for another. Daniels has a lot of red flags in his analytics. Breakout age, pressure to sack ratio, percentage of times he runs vs throws when pressured. 

I agree, though Kiem said you have to look at Jayden’s P2S rate with context, and also said that he doesn’t feel it’s for the same reasons as Howell or Fields. He doesn’t believe that teams are to worried about that with Jayden. At minimum, even if it does remain high, it’s still consistent and should be able to be game planned around, though admittedly, that wouldn’t be great.
 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

I don't think Daniels pressure to sack rate has been debunked.  Keim-Sheehan though have tried to explain context to defend that number as not being as egregious as it looks.

 

I think the best defense for Daniels on this is he improved his last year, 20.2 which almost the identical score to Maye's 19.5.  Both clearly need to improve on this.    With Maye its he needs to stop drifting to pressure (often on the right) and hero ball, for Daniels he needs to throw the ball off platform versus hero ball things.

[The Consigliere]

55 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

Simple, some guys are so entrenched in their guy that no other pathway is an option. Everything else becomes a mistake.

It's more some of us know the warning signs of future busts because we overresearch the hell out of it. Daniels is deeply connected to an absolute ton of bust list trademarks:

1. Doesn't throw with anticipation/not much tight window throwing: Check

2. Health risk due to the way he plays: Check

3. Had breakout year only after he'd been in college a thousand years and was playing primarily against players several years younger: Check

4. Surrounded by far more talent than his peers (the alabama/SEC halo effect): Check

5. Runs when early reads aren't open: Check

6. god awful pressure to sack ratio: Check

7. Excuse making sold as positive: "he really grew/improved each year" ie: he didn't break out and play like an elite player until the elite players from his graduating class had long since left for the pro's and he was playing against kids/ie we aren't worried about why 2019-2022 disappointed, we're celebrating the Kenny Pickett Glory of his final year. He clearly GETS IT NOW!!!

 

And there's a lot more. 

 

He checks SO MANY alarm bells of bust boxes its ridiculous, and the way his boosters quoted in the media, igore all of it, or flip the criticism to become a positive as in "its not important that he totally failed to breakout at ASU, what matters is that in one of his five years, the most recent one, he was finally better than Maye (1 of his 5 years better than Maye's 2 years, 4 of the 5 worse, but somehow that's inexplicably a positive?!?!?!).

 

I'm not here crapping on Penix or Caleb, I get their strengths and worries and why people are both entranced or worried about each. It's the Daniels stuff that just reads like classic predraft bull---- that everyone is gonna pretend they didn't say 2-3-4 years later like with Picket, like with Howel in comparison, like with Lance, Wilson and Fields and Mac Jones, like with Herbert. 

 

The bull---- meter is raging off the hook the same way it was when mediots tried to explain why taking Barkely at QB at the 1.02 in '18 wasn't idiotic, which it was. like it was when the mediots were trying to tell us why Zach Wilson was the next Patrick Mahomes in '17, or Trey Lance the next Randall in '21, or why Mac Jones could go #3, or why the fact that Pickett who was a nothing burger for nearly half a decade in college, proved he was ready for the NFL with his sterling final year performance at age 57 in 2021. 

 

We've all walked this road before, and the Daniels boosting is so very much of a piece with that stupidity, even to the same extent that quoted fired execs, scouts and gm's are pretending they liked Burrow in '20, when they were ripping him, and quietly not mentioning that their failed QB evals are precisely why they are "unemployed GM #3" and "unemployed coach #4".

 

Again, feels like crazy pills. And its worth noting, some of us, certainly me, aren't even arguing Maye is gonna hit, and Daniels is gonna bust. It isn't that, it's that Daniels cv has a ton of warning signs for QB's, and Maye has far fewer and the one's he has tend to be in the eyes of the beholder, rather than clear, factual, data, period. I don't know if even any of these guys will hit, they could all bust, I just know which ones have the most alarming bust bells in terms of historical trend lines and traits, and those are Daniels for what he does on the field, Penix for the time he's sent off of it, JJ for how little he did on it, and Caleb for his personality being a problem, Nix for all things Nix, and Maye for concerns with how many games he played (not a lot), and mechanics which both can be a problem, and can be much ado about zilch. They all have warts, but Daniels and Penix and JJ are the guys w/the warts that are blaring warning signs and patently obvious ones at that.

 

For anyone that doesn't see that, just seems like your probably not paying attention to QB's that hit and didn't the last 25 years. There are clear and coherent trend lines associated with miss rate. Hit rate? That's impossible, but miss rate? There are clear things virtually all of the busts have in common w/at least some of the traits and statistical modeling and #'s. 

[ntotoro]

24 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Because Dan Quinn got lit up by a mobile/athletic QB in the playoffs and sees the same in Daniels and is saying I WANT ONE

 

It was more Dak giving up some pretty bad pickles to start the first half and the Packers' D holding Dallas than Love. 

[mistertim]

Just now, mac8887 said:

I agree, though Kiem said you have to look at Jayden’s P2S rate with context, and also said that he doesn’t feel it’s for the same reasons as Howell or Fields. He doesn’t believe that teams are to worried about that with Jayden. At minimum, even if it does remain high, it’s still consistent and should be able to be game planned around, though admittedly, that wouldn’t be great.
 

 

 

This is an issue. 

 

"Doesn't feel like"  "Doesn't believe" 

 

It's basically people acknowledging the problem but then hand waving it away without a second thought. 

[Ghost of]

7 minutes ago, jg77 said:

A poster here already debunked this.

Who debunked the advanced stats? I know there was an error in third down stuff at some point but what do you mean? who? when? where?

[Skinsinparadise]

@The Consigliere with your long posts-diatribes -- you should find a way to distress.   Aren't you in California?  Just came back from a short trip from there, always strikes me how chill they are versus the NE.  

 

They haven't taken Daniels.  They can still take Maye.  Why exhaust yourself with angst when we don't even know it happens.

 

 

[mac8887]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

This is an issue. 

 

"Doesn't feel like"  "Doesn't believe" 

 

It's basically people acknowledging the problem but then hand waving it away without a second thought. 

I’m just saying, both Jon Kiem and Logan Paulson have talked about this subject and have said that there is more to it than just the high number.

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, mac8887 said:

I’m just saying, both Jon Kiem and Logan Paulson have talked about this subject and have said that there is more to it than just the high number.

 

I think there is more to it, but it ties in with another problematic issue, which is how often he immediately looks to run when pressured vs. pass. That probably contributes to the pressure to sack ratio. So there may be more context, but IMO it's not actually good context.

[Ghost of]

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

They all have warts, but Daniels and Penix and JJ are the guys w/the warts that are blaring warning signs and patently obvious ones at that.

 

I agree with just about your entire post, including the earlier part about JJ but I don't know that there's a blaring warning sign with him.  He performs better under pressure and "high leverage" situations and over the middle than Maye. Ourlads had a video on this maybe 3 weeks? a month ago.  It's not even close actually. Now, of course, who the hell knows, maybe they're all lying or fudging these stats. But I'd say the guys who handle "high leverage" situations are always someone you take another look at, then when you add in having the right mindset. If he's a wiz at the whiteboard/film breakdown, is good in pressure situations, takes things "personal" (a la Jordan) He went to Michigan after Ohio State's Ryan Day lied to him and went with McCord) and wins. It's not true that he doesn't elevate his team, there's a reason he took the job from McNamara and he was one of the few 5 star players on Michigan's roster (thus somewhat less of the SEC/Halo effect you mentioned.)

 

There are definitely warts but being the youngest guy in the draft and having some of the performances/metrics and physical gifts (he's probably the best moving in the pocket of anyone in the draft not named Caleb) means that "projecting" means something.  

[jg77]

On 4/8/2024 at 6:55 PM, Number 44 said:

 Like all stats, STP ratio has a purpose, but it isn't the be all, end all.  PFF doesn't claim that it is.   My point was, and remains, we need to look at stats with an understanding  of the context.  For example, if a QB has a propensity to throw the ball up for grabs when being pressure to avoid sacks, his STP  ratio might look good, but he's likely to have bad outcomes.  The whole reason I even looked into this was the obvious fact that 22 sacks is by no means a high number for a QB to have in a season, and he certainly isn't throwing a lot of interceptions, either.  The 24%  STP ratio that folks kept throwing out there seemed odd, given the sack number.  It then became clear that, in Daniels' case, the guy was doing an outstanding job avoiding pressure.  Again, I can't see any reason to buy an argument that sacks are a problem for Daniels.

 

I think this was a pretty good explanation of the pressure to sack ratio. For those who are worried about...I mean the kid was only sacked 22 times. 

[Ghost of]

1 minute ago, jg77 said:

 

I think this was a pretty good explanation of the pressure to sack ratio. For those who are worried about...I mean the kid was only sacked 22 times. 

Was that because he wasn't pressured as much as other guys? 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, BMagic said:

 

I agree. The Commanders had the chance to move on from Haskins to take Tua/Herbert and didn’t pull the trigger. Few understand the law of diminishing returns. The Bears should have gotten out of the Justin Fields business in the Stroud/Young/Richardson class, if not earlier, and are very and I mean very fortunate to be in the position to pick Caleb Williams. For Kliff to walk into a new situation and convince them to move on from the dude they just took in the very last draft still took some stones.

The problem with the Bears and Fields was that he improved dramatically in '22 from '21. He climbed from the bottom of regular league starters based upon a threshold of snaps in '21, to the upper middle in '22 (I think 14th) in QBR. The Bears could ignore that, and take their toss up between Young and Stroud, and lets be straight, they weren't automatically taking Stroud, Stroud was getting hammered for his S2 score and soundly behind Young on a ton of boards last. If they had moved on last year the most likely scenario was they would have taken another bust at 1.01. Instead, they decided to give their league average starter from '22 another year to lock in the job while getting a ton of draft capital for moving down. It wasn't all that crazy. This wasn't the same thing as the Browns passing on QB in '18 because Manziel or Kizer still made them feel happy inside, or the Cardinals not taking Kyler because they had Rosen, or the Jets holding off on Wilson because Darnold was a stud etc. Fields was already understood to be an elite athlete back there, and as a thrower he was league average in '22. Do you move on, or take another shot? And additionally, they knew the Panthers roster was ---, the trade up would cost them the ability to add weapons and so the pick would probably be high again in a stacked '24 class.  

 

The Cardinals its different. Kyler was considered the best prospect from that '18-'19 combined cohort, Rosen looked like a bust, and even Kyler, for a long while people were worried he would bail and play baseball, but once he was all in? That was a no brainer. Seems like teams get that more now too. The Jets understood they whiffed on Wilson, they just couldn't do anything about it. Patriots took 2 years to realize they were screwed with Jones, Bears took 3 years with Fields but he gave them a good year, same with mac and the apts so they took longer....Teams know now, there's a much better understanding of threshold production metrics and what not associated with "he gets it/he may get it/this is hopeless". 

[Fan since a Fetus]

Did I just read “potential future Hall of Famer like Matt Ryan.” 🥹😅😂🤣

[TheGoodBits]

I've been on the Maye bandwagon for awhile but starting to come around to the idea of Daniels. I think a lot of the reason I've been scared of him, to the point I basically have written him off, is because both his body type, running style, and honestly his highlight tape too remind me so much of RG3. And I still have PTSD. I think it comes down to intangibles and coachability. RG3 did not do well here. How's Daniels? We don't and won't know. Hopefully the front office and coaches are all aligned if they take him. 

But I want to be a devils advocate about one knock I keep hearing about Daniels. "He's old,", been in college for 5 years, didn't have a true breakout season until yr 5. These are valid criticisms and you can make an argument that this means he's not as projectable (ie what will/could he be in 5 years). He's closer to a finished product. Because we've had such a trend of QBs coming out early in the past few decades, we don't really have a great sample size of 4+ year players who are taken in upper end of the 1st round. But we do know there is a trend that young QBs who sit have better outcomes. IMO there couple be two things to this. One being that they are not tossed into the fire WAY before their athletic peak (let's call it age 26) and, for some of these guys, with only a few years of QB experience post-high school. Maybe a QB's "development" can take place in college just as well as in the pros. Maybe the tremendous level of experience he has will help him with his transition to the NFL, rather than limit his upside. I honestly don't know the answer to these questions. But it will be REALLY interesting to see if Daniels is successful, whether that's here or elsewhere. 

[mistertim]

1 minute ago, jg77 said:

 

I think this was a pretty good explanation of the pressure to sack ratio. For those who are worried about...I mean the kid was only sacked 22 times. 

 

You're going back to the same argument he had, which was "well, he didn't take many sacks"

 

Who cares? The entire point of the statistic is the number of sacks relative to the number of pressures. The raw number of sacks is definitely a number with no context.

 

As I mentioned, the context can also be thought about in terms of how little he passes when pressured compared to running. So if he runs a lot when pressured, obviously he's not throwing it up for grabs to avoid sacks and obviously he's not going to throw a lot of INTs since...well, since the ball is never in the air.

 

That's why those are two problematic stats that are IMO intertwined and will potentially cause a lot of problems in the NFL.

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

47 minutes ago, mac8887 said:

Why else would they pass on him then? I don’t see any other major issues

Exactly 

[Warhead36]

4 minutes ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

Did I just read “potential future Hall of Famer like Matt Ryan.” 🥹😅😂🤣

He probably doesn't get in but if 28-3 doesn't happen, he does. He made a bunch of Pro Bowls and won an MVP.