The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[HailtotheClarets]

I still think that the age difference between Maye and Daniels is being underplayed by some as a factor. There are lots of articles with analysis showing how younger draftees tend to fare better in their careers than older prospects, and it's even more clear at QB in particular. I don't have the stats but it always felt to me like Ron did the opposite and leaned more towards older prospects (often quoting their "character"), maybe favoring older players who he felt he could more relate to. Whilst it's obviously hard to predict growth, you can't ignore the fact that the younger players are, the more opportunity there is for growth and development as a player both mentally and physically.  

 

I like both QB prospects we are likely choosing between, and scheme fit may trump everything, but consider me in the Maye camp based on that additional growth potential, as well as my fear around Daniels surviving as a long term QB (the RG3 experience has scarred me, but there are plenty of running QB's who didn't have longevity in the NFL). 

 

Here's an older article on the subject, but it highlights the QB impact of drafting younger age versus older: 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

[seantaylor=god]

30 minutes ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

If Daniels was significantly shorter, I am sure someone would have mentioned it at the combine since he was walking around for days and talking to media

I was more concerned with the weight, if he’s 6’2.5-6’3 that’s fine. If he’s 200, that’s not.

Edited March 8 by seantaylor=god

[Skinsinparadise]

poll just started but so far

[NewCliche21]

24 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

The thing about Keim, as Cooley used to joke, he doesn't talk unless he has like 7 sources on something.  He doesn't want to be wrong so its rare that he spitballs based on just one souce.

 

Speaking of Keim he wrote an article on the subject today

 

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39668487/what-washington-do-no-2

 

 

One of the few in the industry, sports or otherwise, who does as such.

I know he still can't predict the future, but he's the gold standard.

Also a very nice guy in person. What you see on TV and his podcast is what you get.

[Skinsinparadise]

24 minutes ago, NewCliche21 said:

 

One of the few in the industry, sports or otherwise, who does as such.

I know he still can't predict the future, but he's the gold standard.

Also a very nice guy in person. What you see on TV and his podcast is what you get.

 

I used to send emails to him way back when he was with the Examiner and he'd respond.  Responds often on twitter, too.  Nice guy.  Classy.  Great reporter.

 

lol, maybe I am too Keim centric but no one has let me down less than him, he's been almost perfect

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Warhead36]

8 minutes ago, HailtotheClarets said:

I still think that the age difference between Maye and Daniels is being underplayed by some as a factor. There are lots of articles with analysis showing how younger draftees tend to fare better in their careers than older prospects, and it's even more clear at QB in particular. I don't have the stats but it always felt to me like Ron did the opposite and leaned more towards older prospects (often quoting their "character"), maybe favoring older players who he felt he could more relate to. Whilst it's obviously hard to predict growth, you can't ignore the fact that the younger players are, the more opportunity there is for growth and development as a player both mentally and physically.  

 

I like both QB prospects we are likely choosing between, and scheme fit may trump everything, but consider me in the Maye camp based on that additional growth potential, as well as my fear around Daniels surviving as a long term QB (the RG3 experience has scarred me, but there are plenty of running QB's who didn't have longevity in the NFL). 

 

Here's an older article on the subject, but it highlights the QB impact of drafting younger age versus older: 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

Youre 💯 correct. Early breakout age has a really strong correlation to success. And those two extra years make a huge difference.

 

id like Daniels so much more if he were 21

[The Consigliere]

11 minutes ago, HailtotheClarets said:

I still think that the age difference between Maye and Daniels is being underplayed by some as a factor. There are lots of articles with analysis showing how younger draftees tend to fare better in their careers than older prospects, and it's even more clear at QB in particular. I don't have the stats but it always felt to me like Ron did the opposite and leaned more towards older prospects (often quoting their "character"), maybe favoring older players who he felt he could more relate to. Whilst it's obviously hard to predict growth, you can't ignore the fact that the younger players are, the more opportunity there is for growth and development as a player both mentally and physically.  

 

I like both QB prospects we are likely choosing between, and scheme fit may trump everything, but consider me in the Maye camp based on that additional growth potential, as well as my fear around Daniels surviving as a long term QB (the RG3 experience has scarred me, but there are plenty of running QB's who didn't have longevity in the NFL). 

 

Here's an older article on the subject, but it highlights the QB impact of drafting younger age versus older: 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

I think Ron liked the idea of targeting high floor guys, rather than depending upon upside/ceiling guys who had less college experience. The data is in though (at least with the playmaking postions) breakout age matters, overage prospects that produce systematically have worse outcomes than younger ones, even age of declare is relevant. 

 

Its undersold, for sure, and I can't be sure why Ron went the way he did, it could be he was more comfortable with more experienced prospects, could be he just liked the Alabama helmet prospects (a real pitfall there, as generally Alabama prospects have not shown a lot if any growth in the NFL on average, they tended to be maxed by Saban)....

 

But yeah, I do not, for the life of me, understand why guys evaluating the QB in the league would not be taking seriously the fact that Maye broke out at 20, and Daniels took several more years. Could be that Herm Edwards OC sucked, that's an underrated argument, as that team was loaded at ASU with top end talent, and they did not come close to maxing it. 

[Skinsinparadise]

The wave of negativity from certain quarters on Maye from the media.  Its been one big wave give or take the last month.  it's certainly not everywhere, I'd say Maye is still #2 in give or take half the mocks and has a large share of believers -- but he's generated some intense haters somewhat out of the blue and agree with Monson its sort of built momentum

 

The irony for me is as someone who subscribes to just about everything, listens to a zillion podcasts both local and national so I am not bad at getting a pulse on things.  It feels much more from some in the media then about leaks from scouts -- yet they love to say its not them its the scouts. 

 

From my observation its mostly some in the media which has turned on Maye.  It's not really scouts-personnel people as to these leaks with some straggler exceptions but most of the scout-personnel leaks has been positive on Maye.  Not all of them but most. 

 

I think its a great dig by some in the media who perhaps want to take a deeper dig at Maye by saying its like hey we think he sucks but you know what -- we are much higher on him than the scouts who really think he's awful 

 

Some hyperbole there from me to make a point.   It's not dramatic to that scale.  I just find some irony in it.

 

I am Maye over Daniels.  But I want one of the two.  I'd say if I am going purely on media rumors versus mocks, Daniels right now has the slight edge.  If I am going purely on people who cover the team, Maye has the slight edge as for who is taken.  But as I said I doubt this team decided.

 

I am actually also one of the rare people here who are good with McCarthy.  But as far as he goes I've heard zero rumors of this team being hot for him.  It's still early though.

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

While he has plenty of hype, I'd say the most divergent opinions on a QB in this draft is still Mccarthy

 

 

 

[JMURedskins]

1 hour ago, seantaylor=god said:

I’m prepared to eat crow, but I think Daniels is CB sized at his pro day and he isn’t going in the top 3.

 

Take a look at the photo at Heisman ceremony. Penix is 6.2 and a half, 216.

 

He looks bigger than Daniels. 
 

If you’re looking at the height, it’s all about the  angle the picture is taken…and yes I know this picture is a little deceptive as well.  I think height wise, Daniels will measure between 6’3”-6’4”.  Just going based on him standing next to Brian Thomas JR(I believe 6’3” in the combine) in another picture.

Edited March 8 by JMURedskins

[NOLA2DC]

33 minutes ago, HailtotheClarets said:

I still think that the age difference between Maye and Daniels is being underplayed by some as a factor. There are lots of articles with analysis showing how younger draftees tend to fare better in their careers than older prospects, and it's even more clear at QB in particular. I don't have the stats but it always felt to me like Ron did the opposite and leaned more towards older prospects (often quoting their "character"), maybe favoring older players who he felt he could more relate to. Whilst it's obviously hard to predict growth, you can't ignore the fact that the younger players are, the more opportunity there is for growth and development as a player both mentally and physically.  

 

I like both QB prospects we are likely choosing between, and scheme fit may trump everything, but consider me in the Maye camp based on that additional growth potential, as well as my fear around Daniels surviving as a long term QB (the RG3 experience has scarred me, but there are plenty of running QB's who didn't have longevity in the NFL). 

 

Here's an older article on the subject, but it highlights the QB impact of drafting younger age versus older: 

 

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/age-played-a-bigger-role-in-the-nfl-draft-its-about-time/

The article is from 2018. I am just saying that I don't think age has anything to do with quarterbacks' success, whether you're talking about Nix, Penix, or Daniels this year. Mahomes didn't start until his second year, and Burrow was a grad student, just to use recent examples. 

[FootballZombie]

1 hour ago, seantaylor=god said:

 

 

I'm over here trying to figure out hand size using Penix as a reference point...

 

Dang, I could use some Free Agency news...

 

[Skinsinparadise]

Edit from my previous post, apparently Maye is higher than what i thought in most mocks.   but i don't know what mocks these guy tracks.  it felt 50-50 to me of late.  But the football gods spoke back 

 

I gather I had some recency effect in my head reading the Albright comments and watching recently Simms, Kiper and McShay opine on this

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

12 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

While he has plenty of hype, I'd say the most divergent opinions on a QB in this draft is still Mccarthy

 

 

 

I'll say Cosell has missed badly on QB's an absolute ton of the time historically. I like his breakdowns, but it doesn't change the fact that there are no QB evaluation guru's, over a large enough sample size, we all suck, the fans, the media guys, the ex players, the scouts, everyone. QB is impossible to consistently evaluate well and effectively. Cosell is like anyone else.

 

As for JJ, for a while there I had him above Penxi, but I have Penix above him against. But Penix is a guy I'd only draft if I was a good to go playoff team or close, because he's crazy overage, and barely escaped any season w/o an injury. He's not a long term answer, if you're lucky, you get 5. I think he's ready to play now which is the good news, loads of experience, not raw at all. But he doesnt make sense for teams like ours. 

[DogofWar1]

How the heck do 17% of mocks have Caleb at 2?

 

And where can I get whatever those dudes are smoking?

[The Consigliere]

8 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

The article is from 2018. I am just saying that I don't think age has anything to do with quarterbacks' success, whether you're talking about Nix, Penix, or Daniels this year. Mahomes didn't start until his second year, and Burrow was a grad student, just to use recent examples. 

It does. Breakout age is one of the most important indicators of future success. Doesn't mean players produce and star anyway as overage prospects, some do, but the hit rate on guys is definitely higher for guys that breakout younger rather than later. 

[FootballZombie]

29 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Could be that Herm Edwards OC sucked, that's an underrated argument, as that team was loaded at ASU with top end talent, and they did not come close to maxing it. 

 

We don't know how teams leverage Covid years. That could play a major role here.

 

There was the feeling a couple years ago that teams were doing everything in their power to avoid that specific draft class, trading for future picks and whatnot. We don't know how they evaluate prospects that didn't come out then but had to go thru it. Would some teams see that as a free pass or mulligan? Who knows, but we do know the "fear" teams felt at the time was palpable.

[Skinsinparadise]

5 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I'll say Cosell has missed badly on QB's an absolute ton of the time historically. I like his breakdowns, but it doesn't change the fact that there are no QB evaluation guru's, over a large enough sample size, we all suck, the fans, the media guys, the ex players, the scouts, everyone. QB is impossible to consistently evaluate well and effectively. Cosell is like anyone else.

 

As for JJ, for a while there I had him above Penxi, but I have Penix above him against. But Penix is a guy I'd only draft if I was a good to go playoff team or close, because he's crazy overage, and barely escaped any season w/o an injury. He's not a long term answer, if you're lucky, you get 5. I think he's ready to play now which is the good news, loads of experience, not raw at all. But he doesnt make sense for teams like ours. 

 

Agree, only showcasing Cosell because he's far from a straggler on it, I notice meda types and ditto leaks from personnel a bit all over the map about McCarthy but certainly more positive than negative, he's gotten hot but not everyone seems to be on board with it

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[The Consigliere]

8 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

I'm over here trying to figure out hand size using Penix as a reference point...

 

Dang, I could use some Free Agency news...

 

I will freely admit, i was alarmed and bummed at Maye's measurement, definitely was not expecting him to be 9 and 1/8 inch if memory serves, was hoping for 10 or close to it, hand size does actually matter, especially at the small tail side of the spectrum. Maye is definitely on the small side of the size spectrum when it comes to hands from what I recall. 

[Conn]

4 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

That’s irrelevant, ES isn’t a popularity contest.

If that’s true then why does Jumbo have me Venmo him $19.99/month for quarterly assessments of my likability? Explain that! 

[DogofWar1]

I would love big mitts but my understanding is anything above 9 inches will work.

 

Jow Burrow and Jared Goff are both 9 inch hands.  Carr and Fields are 9 1/8.  Mayfield and Mahomes are 9 1/4.

 

I'm not too panicked about it.

[Skinsinparadise]

13 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I will freely admit, i was alarmed and bummed at Maye's measurement, definitely was not expecting him to be 9 and 1/8 inch if memory serves, was hoping for 10 or close to it, hand size does actually matter, especially at the small tail side of the spectrum. Maye is definitely on the small side of the size spectrum when it comes to hands from what I recall. 

 

Good wingspan though.  Some thought previously he's 6 '3 or 6'4.  And he measured almost 6 4 1/2.

 

 

 

Edited March 8 by Skinsinparadise

[Command The 414]

11 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

I will freely admit, i was alarmed and bummed at Maye's measurement, definitely was not expecting him to be 9 and 1/8 inch if memory serves, was hoping for 10 or close to it, hand size does actually matter, especially at the small tail side of the spectrum. Maye is definitely on the small side of the size spectrum when it comes to hands from what I recall. 

I wouldn’t look to far into all this hand size stuff…for me if these guys have been slinging the ball around at QB at a high level as they have the size of their hand won’t matter at all in the NFL just another useless stat to talk about

Edited March 8 by Command The 414

[DogofWar1]

Michael Penix wingspan at 81 inches that is a wide man.

 

[FootballZombie]

I don't know how Kenny Pickett manages to have a normal functioning life if we are being honest here.