The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[mistertim]

Kirk is going to be looking for a big money contract and there's no way he goes somewhere that's drafting a QB #2 overall, which likely means he's just a one year placeholder at the most. This is his last big hurrah and he's going to want to go somewhere that he's "the guy"

 

Plus, Kirk is basically the polar opposite of what our coaches have indicated they want in a QB. They want mobility and the ability to extend plays and improvise when need be. Kirk is a statue who can be really good when playing within the system successfully but once things go off-script he falters. 

Edited March 5 by mistertim

[skinny21]

Just now, rumplestilskin said:

I think Wilson won't have many options where he can be super picky.

I bet Sean Payton wants Wilson to take his Let's Ride train to the Raiders and ruin them for a few seasons. At least he is cheap cheap because his season is basically paid for.

Super picky?  No, you’re right.  However, as you know there are a group of teams that aren’t in the top 3 (ie liable to get a rookie to thrust into a starting role and relegating Wilson to a backup/mentor role), and they arguably have better rosters than ours - NYG, ATL, MIN, LV, PIT, and then potentially TB/TEN.  And of course supply is limited to basically Kirk, Fields, Mayfield and Wilson and some rookies with pretty serious question marks.  I’d be willing to bet one of these teams will find the pairing of Wilson with a McCarthy/Penix/Nix/Rattler/etc pretty appealing.  I suppose there’s an outside chance WAS and/or NE replaces one (or two) of those qb needy teams via trading down.

[WEARE1554]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I expect Maye to be up and down. He's gonna have games where he lights it up, and he's gonna have games where he pushes his luck and ends up throwing 3 picks. Ideally, we see growth and improvement from the first half of the season to the second but QB growth isn't often linear. 

 

My dream scenario is that by November ish he's humming and we lose a bunch of close hard fought shootouts so we're optimistic about the future of our QB while also landing another high pick to add another blue chip talent.

Because he sucks and honestly I don't see him as being a good vet mentor type. And as someone else mentioned, you'd have to run a completely different offense with a guy like Wilson compared to Maye so the benefit of the rook sitting and learning is lessened.

So basically a new version of Sam Howell.  People forget how good Howell was in college until he lost literally every weapon and running back he had. EB did no favors for the offense last year and the line was Swiss cheese.  So you want a taller Sam Howell 

[mh86]

1 hour ago, mistertim said:

 

Purely out of curiosity, are you planning on sticking around when we likely draft Maye or will you disappear?

[DogofWar1]

10 minutes ago, WEARE1554 said:

So basically a new version of Sam Howell.  People forget how good Howell was in college until he lost literally every weapon and running back he had. EB did no favors for the offense last year and the line was Swiss cheese.  So you want a taller Sam Howell 

 

I think it was on the Paulsen/Hoffman/guy who I forgets podcast and they talked about how different the game is when you're 6'4" compared to when you're shorter.

 

Or maybe it was Hoffman on Keim.  I forget.  I think Hoffman was involved somehow.

 

But basically they were talking about 6'4" guys have actual vision of the field from the pocket.  If you're shorter, you gotta move around to get that same vision.  And if you're not moving it's all anticipation and timing.  You aren't actually seeing things, you're throwing on the trust that downfield will be as the play is drawn up.  They then talked about how with Purdy they are likely writing up plays saying "you get the ball to X location at Y time" and he does, whereas with a taller guy you can sorta read things as they happen from the pocket.

 

And so "he's a taller Howell" may not be a knock.  If Howell was 6'4", well that a whole different human being.  The game is completely different.

[samy316]

29 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Money. We have the most cap. It’s all about dollars nothing more particularly with Cousins. 

 

Dollars don't matter to guys like Cousins and Wilson.  Both have earned enough, and are straight as far as their finances go.  Cousins wants to win, and we're about the furthest team outside of that winning bubble.  If you're talking about a player who is just finishing up their rookie contract, and looking for their big payday, sure, but Cousins & Wilson are not in it for paydays.  They want to compete for SB's.

 

Cousins could easily go to a team like Atlanta, and make them a serious NFC contender with the weapons they have on offense and their young, improving defense.  He would rather take less to win with a team like Atlanta, then go to a dump like Washington, where we're at least a few years away from winning AND we've drafted a QB waiting in the wings.

Edited March 5 by samy316

[DiscoBob]

3 minutes ago, samy316 said:

Dollars don't matter to guys like Cousins and Wilson.

 

Wait til Kirk signs his contract and then make that claim 

[samy316]

Just now, DiscoBob said:

 

Wait til Kirk signs his contract and then make that claim 

 

He's getting paid regardless.  We're the one team where it won't matter how much cap space we have.  If we offer 2 Years $60 Million, and the Falcons offer 2 Years $50 Million, Kirk will take that ATL deal in a hear beat.  Why would he want to sign with a team that's a dumpster fire as far as talent goes, and on a rebuilding plan?

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

2 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

He's getting paid regardless.  We're the one team where it won't matter how much cap space we have.  If we offer 2 Years $60 Million, and the Falcons offer 2 Years $50 Million, Kirk will take that ATL deal in a hear beat.  Why would he want to sign with a team that's a dumpster fire as far as talent goes, and on a rebuilding plan?

And Atlanta isn't a dumpster fire? That team has found more dumb ways to lose in recent years than the rest of the league combined.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

 

The player can sign immediately after being released even if a June 1st designation. It's actually why they created that designation. This allows the player to sign early. Also, the team opens a roster spot however the CAP hit stays until June 1. So it provides the team long term CAP relief but not immediate relief. I do NOT want to sign RW but he could sign anywhere once released, even if designated June 1st. 

Yeah, I meant to go back and correct myself.  I was wrong about that. 

 

But there is a team related cap thing, they don't actually get the savings until June 1, I think.  And on this, I'm pretty sure I'm right about...

 

1 hour ago, goskins10 said:

I want no part of RW or KC. If they are not in love with Maye/Daniels then trade back and look at Nix or McCarthy, someone in that tier. Let Sam H compete with them or bring Jacoby Brissett back as a mentor. 

If they don't like Maye or Daniels, then they have 2 options:

 

1. Trade up for Williams if they like him

2. Trade down and don't pick a starting QB at all, or at least not one you think is going to be a future franchise guy.  Because if you don't like Maye/Daniels because you don't have a good enough feeling they could be a franchise guy, there's just no world in which there is a higher likelihood one of the next tier is going to be that guy.  It COULD happen.  It happens about 4 times in a decade when a player picked outside the first round becomes a franchise QB.  Wilson, Cousins, Hurts (second round), Dak, Purdy.  I might be missing somebody, but I'm not missing many.  What has to happen is basically every team has to blow the evaluation, and then you have to get lucky.  

 

Something interesting about the late round guys who became starters:

- Russell Wilson: He was drafted to be the backup, maybe compete for the starter... The Seahawks had just signed Matt Flynn to be the starting QB, signing him to a 3 year, $19m deal.  In 2012, that was a pretty good sized contract. Russell won the job, but he wasn't drafted to be the starter.

- Cousins: He was drafted to be the backup to Griffin

- Hurts: He was drafted while they had Wentz.  He wasn't forced to play right away, and there was no thought he would be the immediate starter.  

- Dak: Dallas still had Romo when they drafted Dak.  He wasn't drafted to be the immediate starter.

- Purdy: He was drafted as Mr. Irrelevant when the 49ers still thought they had a guy in Trey Lance as the starter.  

- Brady: going way back, they had Bledsoe as the starter.  Brady wasn't drafted to start.  He was drafted to be a backup.

 

The only second round QB I can think of who was definitively drafted to be a starter pretty quickly was Drew Brees.  And that didn't go well for a few years.  To the point where he was bad enough the chargers picked Eli, and then traded him to the Giants to get Rivers.  Then Brees blossomed, got hurt, went to New Orleans, won a SB and has hotel reservations for his HOF induction in 2026.  

 

But the whole "trade down and get a guy" thing hasn't worked.  I'm sure there's somebody I'm missing, and somebody is going to post "but you forgot about THAT GUY!"  But the point is, it's not very likely.

 

And we don't have a starter penciled in to pick the later round QB.  So history would tell us, trading down and expecting tier 2 QBs like McCarthy, Penix or Nix to pan out as a starter, not going to happen.  

[samy316]

Just now, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

And Atlanta isn't a dumpster fire? That team has found more dumb ways to lose in recent years than the rest of the league combined.

 

They're not a dumpster fire.  The only reason they didn't win the NFC South last year, was because they had a dumb coach AND they had two terrible QB's in Desmond Ridder and he who shall not be named.  ATL is LOADED with offensive talent.  They have a great rookie RB, 2 legitimate WR's and a superstar TE in the making in Kyle Pitts.  We don't have any of that.  ATL's defense is better than ours as well.  If they get a QB like Cousins, they will win that division for sure next year.  They might even get to a Divisional Round or better, depending on who they play.  We're far, far away from being that kind of team.  Cousins wants to compete, and we're the least likely team to do that, compared to the other list of options he has.

[SoCalSkins]

15 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

Dollars don't matter to guys like Cousins and Wilson.  Both have earned enough, and are straight as far as their finances go.  Cousins wants to win, and we're about the furthest team outside of that winning bubble.  If you're talking about a player who is just finishing up their rookie contract, and looking for their big payday, sure, but Cousins & Wilson are not in it for paydays.  They want to compete for SB's.

 

Cousins could easily go to a team like Atlanta, and make them a serious NFC contender with the weapons they have on offense and their young, improving defense.  He would rather take less to win with a team like Atlanta, then go to a dump like Washington, where we're at least a few years away from winning AND we've drafted a QB waiting in the wings.

 

Cousins is all about money and is super frugal. He’s not leaving money on the table. If he calculates winning will translate into more dollars he will go that route but he is 100% about the money. 

[Est.1974]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Cousins is all about money and is super frugal. He’s not leaving money on the table. If he calculates winning will translate into more dollars he will go that route but he is 100% about the money. 

Yep Cousins wants 45m PY fully guaranteed.

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

7 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

They're not a dumpster fire.  The only reason they didn't win the NFC South last year, was because they had a dumb coach AND they had two terrible QB's in Desmond Ridder and he who shall not be named.  ATL is LOADED with offensive talent.  They have a great rookie RB, 2 legitimate WR's and a superstar TE in the making in Kyle Pitts.  We don't have any of that.  ATL's defense is better than ours as well.  If they get a QB like Cousins, they will win that division for sure next year.  They might even get to a Divisional Round or better, depending on who they play.  We're far, far away from being that kind of team.  Cousins wants to compete, and we're the least likely team to do that, compared to the other list of options he has.

They went 7-10 in that train wreck of a division, which matches their highest win total since 2017 when they cracked double digits. This goes beyond just a bad coach and quarterback. Not saying Washington doesn't also suck, but there's no way I think Atlanta is better.

Edited March 5 by Professor_Nutter_Butter

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

You can basically have Wilson for nothing in 2024, as long as we draft a QB I don’t see the problem. He’s is also very close with Quinn. 

We'll see.  I don't think that's true.  I think he's going to get more than Jacoby got for sure. My guess is the $15-20m range.

 

Frankly, if he doesn't get that, he might retire.

 

Also, him being close with Quinn is great, but I don't think it would fit the "build sustainable winner through the draft" mold Peter has talked about since day 1.  And it leaves a huge hole for QB next year.  

 

There's nothing I like about signing Wilson.  He's past his prime, things haven't gone extremely well for him the last several years, the coach who drafted him and he won a SB with was more than happy to trade him without a backup plan, the next team is taking a historic cap hit to get rid of him.

 

If you thought Wentz had red flags, my goodness, this is Wentz times 6,293,042.

1 hour ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

So what you're saying is CJ Stroud is a complete anomaly

I mean, rookie QBs who have immediate success at that level are the anomaly.  Most struggle early. 

 

1 hour ago, Hiker said:

Why would any free agent QB (Cousins, Wilson,etc) want to come to Washington?  We have one (1) offensive lineman.

I promise we will have 10 offensive linemen on the roster after free agency and the draft.  

 

I appreciate you both spelling the word AND putting the numeral to make sure we got the point, though.  

44 minutes ago, tmandoug1 said:

Why on earth would we want either of those two? A "Retread" Cousins and a "has never been" Wilson. We literally have a clean slate from top to bottom, let's run it that way and start this **** fresh! 

I wouldn't classify Wilson as a "has never been."  There was a stretch early in his career when he was one of the most dynamic QBs in the game.  Definitely top 5.  And he did win a SB and played in another.  He's probably a borderline HOF player.  

 

I don't want him, but you can't take away his past success.

 

[samy316]

Just now, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

They went 7-10 in that train wreck of a division, which matches their highest win total since 2017 when they cracked double digits. This goes beyond just a bad coach and quarterback. Not saying Washington doesn't also suck, but don't think Atlanta is better than the two. 

 

Exactly.  They went 7-10 with an awful coach and no QB.  They're much closer to 10-11 wins then we are.  We went 4-13 with our roster intact for the entire year.  You're damn right we're worse.  All ATL has to do is get a QB, and they could be off and running.  We lack the talent and the QB to do that.  Their roster is so much better than ours,

[Chris 44]

7 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

Cousins is all about money and is super frugal. He’s not leaving money on the table. If he calculates winning will translate into more dollars he will go that route but he is 100% about the money. 

If Cousins wasn't about the money he would have already re-upped in Minny

[BayouBrave86]

Anyone paying big money to Kirk Cousins coming off a major injury deserves to be stuck with that contract for a while. He doesn’t turn any team into a contender. If I were Atlanta I’d roll with Fields before Cousins. Credit to Cousins though, he has played the system extremely well for maximum money. 

[Est.1974]

3 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't think that's true.  I think he's going to get more than Jacoby got for sure. My guess is the $15-20m range.

 

Frankly, if he doesn't get that, he might retire.

He’s already guaranteed nearly 40mil from Denver. That’s what he’s getting in 2024. Whatever his new team pay him gets offset from his Denver payout. There is no incentive for a new team to pay more than 1.2m vet min. Denver then pick up the tab for the rest.

 

2 minutes ago, BayouBrave86 said:

Anyone paying big money to Kirk Cousins coming off a major injury deserves to be stuck with that contract for a while. He doesn’t turn any team into a contender. If I were Atlanta I’d roll with Fields before Cousins. Credit to Cousins though, he has played the system extremely well for maximum money. 

Agree. Massive risk. I read a projected 3 year 135mil fully gtd deal with ATL.

Edited March 5 by Est.1974

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

3 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

Exactly.  They went 7-10 with an awful coach and no QB.  They're much closer to 10-11 wins then we are.  We went 4-13 with our roster intact for the entire year.  You're damn right we're worse.  All ATL has to do is get a QB, and they could be off and running.  We lack the talent and the QB to do that.  Their roster is so much better than ours,

Agree to disagree, my friend. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

12 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

He’s already guaranteed nearly 40mil from Denver. That’s what he’s getting in 2024. Whatever his new team pay him gets offset from his Denver payout. There is no incentive for a new team to pay more than 1.2m vet min. Denver then pick up the tab for the rest.

He's being released.  Which means he's a FA. Denver has to pay him what it has to pay him under the terms of his current contract.  And then that contract is null and void.  The new contract is going to pay him whatever the terms of the new contract.  I don't think there is an offset where one contract offsets another contract between teams.  Is there anywhere where that has been reported or clarification of rules?  

 

If you're saying he will just be happy with the $40m from Denver, and take the vet minimum, I'd say he won't.  If he can get Denver to pay him $40m, and then another team to pay him $15m, he gets more money, and why wouldn't he go for that?

[Est.1974]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

I don't think there is an offset where one contract offsets another contract between teams.

Yeah offset was reported. 

[DogofWar1]

I wonder if the Wilson situation will have a cooling impact on vet signings.

 

Certainly it scares the crap outta me, as a lay person.

[Voice_of_Reason]

Just now, Est.1974 said:

Yeah offset was reported. 

Where and by who?

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Where and by who?

All over the place, trying to track down some now…

 

They’ll make the move a post-June 1 transaction. It could result, based on our understanding the payments made and still owed and per a source with knowledge of the situation, a cap charge of $35.4 million for 2024, and another cap charge of $49.6 million for 2025.

 

If/when Wilson signs elsewhere in 2024, the Broncos would get a dollar-for-dollar credit against his $39 million guaranteed compensation package in 2024. That credit would apply, we’re told, in 2025.

 

It’s a massive cap obligation, to be sure. It would have gotten worse, however, if the Broncos had kept Wilson beyond March 17, when his $37 million salary for 2025 would have become fully guaranteed.