The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

I wouldnt take Howell over Allen right now. Simply because Allen can do things no other QB on earth can do. Now lets see where Sam is 3 years from now.....

 

What is it that Allen can do that no other QBs can do? Not even Mahomes as well?

[RandyHolt]

Beating a dead horse by repeating myself but I LOVE that Sam has been utilizing touch and loft to his arsenal.

 

With crappy pass pro, deep balls will only be completed in 1 of 3 ways. Fleas/trick plays, bail out of the pocket, or loft passes.  Sam has bailing and loft in his repertoire now. Lofts makes it easier to complete and catch those lower percentage deep balls, IMO.  Especially for WRs with drop issues.

 

There is little to complain about with Sam right now. Cut down on the turnovers and try to avoid big hits when running. Some may say he is bailing pressure too soon but its FAR better than being a bug eyed deer in the headlights taking sacks over and over. Especially when you excel at throwing on the run.

 

Howell's floating TD passes

 

Edited November 14, 2023 by RandyHolt

[Going Commando]

11 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

In yesterday PC, Rivera pretty much confirmed what local media have been reporting.  He said in interviewing OC's last year (I'm paraphasing) the quickest way to evaluating a QB was throwing the ball. 

 

We've wondered about why they aren't running the ball more.  1) EB likes to throw more - he's stated that  2)  This year has, at least offensively, been a referendum to see how Howell will develop like literally "throwing" him in to the fire

 

Side note - I'm sure Howell like all QB's loves throwing the ball

 

 

 

If it's true that they are sacrificing wins to test Howell, then that is flat out bad coaching.  QBs don't earn and secure their jobs by throwing it a ton and putting up stats.  They do it by winning.  Other later draft pick QBs like Jalen Hurts and Russell Wilson and Tony Romo and Dak Prescott and Tom Brady didn't lock in their jobs by throwing the ball 40+ times a game.  They became franchise QBs by winning first, and along the way developing great habits, mastering their coverage reads, developing great feel for their timing and placement, etc.  The proven method for developing young QBs is to keep things simple, support them with a great defense and run game, get them winning and competing at the top of the sport, and then steadily increase their role as they master the job.  They have to learn to buy in to playing team football and develop that patience and trust.

 

I didn't see the comments, but if Rivera meant them in the way you are saying, that would feel like an attempt to spin a coaching failure.

[Warhead36]

Rivera knows he's toast and the only way he can secure his job is if by Howell develops. The fastest way for him to develop is to throw him into the deep end and see if he sinks or swims. Right now, he's Michael Phelps-ing this mother effer despite being weighted down by 2 ton ankleweights that is our defense and OL.

[The Consigliere]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I think the WRs are good, could be better. But the rest I agree with 

 

I'm kind of off with the WR's. McLaurin's great, but the rest of the group is below average or worse. Samuel's solid when healthy, but he's rarely healthy. Dotson had an intriguing rookie year but has been awful this season. Looking like another silly reach like most of our day 1 and day 2 picks. Hope I'm wrong, it's definitely too early to say bust, but not too early to say he's having a terrible season in '23. 

 

The target separation hovering between 29 and 30 is just flat out embarrassing, and probably explains the utterly bizarre passing distribution last week. Next year's WR class is quite good, so maybe we can peel off some talent there and/or look at FA options, McLaurin aint getting younger, can't count on Dotson, Samuel is a '17 if memory serves with a litany of injury issues and may be a FA, I can't remember. We need to rebuild his tool box with OL, pass catchers, a legit special athlete RB, and a difference making TE (though Thomas was a fantastic signing considering how bad we've been otherwise, at the position). 

[Warhead36]

I'm not even sure I'd classify McLaurin as great. I think he's good, at times very good,  but he never completely dominates a game the way a real great WR does. He got completely shutdown by a rookie in WItherspoon(granted a talented rookie, but still). I'm not a McLaurin hater, he's a good WR, but he's not an A1 alpha dawg.

[Darrell Green Fan]

Not sure it was address, and I can't remember where they were in the game but I believe it was late.  He threw a pass to Gibson on the flat as he was running away from him.  That was a difficult throw and he hit him in perfect stride and that was enough for Gibson to get by the defender and get the first down.  I backed that play up over and over again, realizing that virtually every other QB we have had would have put that pass a few feet high/low or behind him by just a touch and that would have been just enough to cause Gibson to break stride and be tackled short.  That was one of the plays that really jumped out at me by Sam Howell.

[NoCalMike]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

 

I'm kind of off with the WR's. McLaurin's great, but the rest of the group is below average or worse. Samuel's solid when healthy, but he's rarely healthy. Dotson had an intriguing rookie year but has been awful this season. Looking like another silly reach like most of our day 1 and day 2 picks. Hope I'm wrong, it's definitely too early to say bust, but not too early to say he's having a terrible season in '23. 

 

The target separation hovering between 29 and 30 is just flat out embarrassing, and probably explains the utterly bizarre passing distribution last week. Next year's WR class is quite good, so maybe we can peel off some talent there and/or look at FA options, McLaurin aint getting younger, can't count on Dotson, Samuel is a '17 if memory serves with a litany of injury issues and may be a FA, I can't remember. We need to rebuild his tool box with OL, pass catchers, a legit special athlete RB, and a difference making TE (though Thomas was a fantastic signing considering how bad we've been otherwise, at the position). 

 

Yeah the Cowboys basically aged Ezekial Elliot 10 years in 3 seasons in order to protect Dak and slowly bring him along before they were ready to make him a bigger focal point of the offense. 

[Llevron]

17 minutes ago, lovemaskins said:

Yeah, that’s why I think a lot of the funk of the offense is these guys still learning real time where they’re  supposed to be. We want to blame EB for everything but it takes time for a young QB and receivers and lineman to gel in an offense and this is what we don’t see or understand a lot of weeks that’s happening behind the scenes. It’s why I’ve been a proponent of bringing EB back next year because if not it’ll be the same learning curve again with a new everything. Continuity is really important, but it may be too late now. Just hope we don’t ruin our new QB in the process…

 

Terry even said out loud its a hard offense to learn because of all the choice routes WRs have. I remember him saying they have to make reads in coverage and change the routes accordingly. Its conceivable to me that they individually can make mistakes that result in this.  

 

That's a lot of trust in the WRs and personally i think it sounds like a mistake. I doubt that is really what's happening but who knows maybe its more common than I think. 

[Warhead36]

Guys change systems all the time across the league and have no problem. We just always seem to have guys that are confused learning a slightly new way to play. Its football, not rocket science.

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, Stadium-Armory said:

If you were starting a team right now would you take Sam Howell or Brock Purdy?

Howell because of the profile. He had a lot of data from '19 and '20 suggesting he was much better than his final season based evals. I have heard Purdy had a similar late college swoon that screwed up his capital and so I'm being lazy but I still don't recall him being at the top of boards heading into '22, Howell was consistently ranked inside that 5-15 overall area in the summer of '21. So Howell would be my guy. '22 was always a weird class because it basically mixed a bad class rating with a plethora of guys who could go anywhere in that 10-50 area. The problem with it at the time was that while it lacked top end prospects, like '13 and '14's notorious garbage classes, it had a plethora of second and third tier guys (guys that would typically go in late round 1 or round 2 or 3 in good classes). As such it was hard as heck to evaluate, then you had Pickett suddenly waking up as an overrage prospect and flying up boards (needless to say, that was a guy most of us nailed in terms of not having it). 

 

But anyway, going into that draft, I liked Willis, Howell, and the guy Carolina took who got hurt, and had Howell as my 2A. Looks like I'm dead wrong on Willis and probably wrong on the Carolina dude, but probably right on Howell. One happy thing to note for board camaraderie is that pretty much everyone celebrated his selection in '22, while people had concerns, I think most of the board viewed him as one of the best QB prospects in the class, and a must draft if he was there in round 2, so to get him in round 5 was spectacular, if risky as hell. 

[Warhead36]

After all these years, to finally hit on a possible franchise QB in the fifth round is some crazy luck, but luck we are definitely due.

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, Tyler Spiers said:

I think they are both winners but I would take Howell because of his improvisation and because he's built like a tank and will hopefully not get injured that much.

 

Purdy already got injured and really crapped the bed in the playoff game against Philly, which he also got injured in.

 

Purdy basically had an injury that destroys pitchers careers, he literally could not throw the ball downfield which was both why Philly was a lock to that game AND why he was bad in it. He looks like a "hit". I don't view him as "found out" at all, I think he's a good, solid QB, maybe better, I just think Howell has more raw talent, period. Will be funny if both become perennial All Pro types. 

[RandyHolt]

Choice routes explains why we sometimes see 2 WRs in the same spot. It doesn't seem to happen very often so I am not concerned. We see WRs run wrong routes likely weekly and never even know it. Carr blew a fuse a few weeks ago when Olave did.

 

Regardless one of my complaints over the years has been an overly complicated playbook. I think our OL's plates are overloaded.  Maybe they will learn how to pick up stunts before the seasons over. Its tough for an OC to know his players collective IQ lets call it and seem to defer to loading up their plates and working back vs spoon feeding.

[Warhead36]

NFL football isn't that difficult. If your players are having this much trouble picking things up then either your players are dumb or your coaching sucks.

 

Josh Dobbs literally came in not knowing the playbook at all and engineered a game winning TD drive and a week later lit up a good Saints defense. WITHOUT Justin Jefferson to boot.

 

It ain't that hard.

[The Consigliere]

12 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

 Except Allen didn't start showing he is the man until his junior year. This year Allen has one more TD than Howell. They both have 9 INTs before MNF. Howell is doing things his 1st year as a starter that Allen started doing his 3rd year. I would take Howell over Allen based on the fact that Howell has also been sacked 44+ times and had to do more behind our wonderful OL and is still standing upright. You have to be real special if you can do that. 

 

Edit: Allen threw 2 INTs on MNF. So now has 11 INTs. 

 

 

Allen always struck me as a dart throw QB, with a lot of Will Levis too him. Both guys are mega armed types with flaws in their throwing games, and running chops with legit athleticism. They were basically "if they get it, they're stars, but there's a really low floor and a real high chance of being the floor rather than the ceiling". Josh Allen was legit bad in terms of accuracy in an utterly bunk conference. Getting better as the competition got harder made zero sense, and yet that's what happened. It's why he was the one '18 class QB that I wanted no part of. I collected a bunch of Baker (my #1), Darnold (my #2), and Rosen (my #3) in dynasty leagues, got Lamar in one, and got Allen simply because he was too good to pass up in one (fell to the early 3rd round, pretty crazy in retrospect, but then again this year I consistently could find levis in round 2 of superflex and round 3 of 1QB rookie drafts). 

 

So to me anyway, Allen is just an alien. Not worth really building a draft philosophy on beyond, "be open to betting on betting on tools". 

[Darrell Green Fan]

11 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Howell because of the profile. He had a lot of data from '19 and '20 suggesting he was much better than his final season based evals. I have heard Purdy had a similar late college swoon that screwed up his capital and so I'm being lazy but I still don't recall him being at the top of boards heading into '22, Howell was consistently ranked inside that 5-15 overall area in the summer of '21. So Howell would be my guy. '22 was always a weird class because it basically mixed a bad class rating with a plethora of guys who could go anywhere in that 10-50 area. The problem with it at the time was that while it lacked top end prospects, like '13 and '14's notorious garbage classes, it had a plethora of second and third tier guys (guys that would typically go in late round 1 or round 2 or 3 in good classes). As such it was hard as heck to evaluate, then you had Pickett suddenly waking up as an overrage prospect and flying up boards (needless to say, that was a guy most of us nailed in terms of not having it). 

 

But anyway, going into that draft, I liked Willis, Howell, and the guy Carolina took who got hurt, and had Howell as my 2A. Looks like I'm dead wrong on Willis and probably wrong on the Carolina dude, but probably right on Howell. One happy thing to note for board camaraderie is that pretty much everyone celebrated his selection in '22, while people had concerns, I think most of the board viewed him as one of the best QB prospects in the class, and a must draft if he was there in round 2, so to get him in round 5 was spectacular, if risky as hell. 

 

For a team who announced prior to the draft that they would be drafting a developmental QB I have no idea why they waited until the 5th round. Glad it worked out but what a stupid risk to take.  

[The Consigliere]

20 minutes ago, NoCalMike said:

 

Yeah the Cowboys basically aged Ezekial Elliot 10 years in 3 seasons in order to protect Dak and slowly bring him along before they were ready to make him a bigger focal point of the offense. 

It didn't matter though, historical trend lines the past 15-20 years suggested Zeke would hit the wall anyway following his 2020 season. You might as well run him into the ground if you wasted a top 5 pick on Zeke and got insanely lucky hitting on a QB you didnt even intend to draft with a day 3 pick (can't remember which guy they wanted, but their targets were the bust Denver took in round 1, and I think the Michigan State guy the Raiders took ahead of him in round 3 or 4). Paxton Lynch and Connor Cook. At least that's my memory. Dak was a favorite of Irvin apparently who kind of whispered in the teams ear to take him, so they can thank him for the insight. 

39 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not even sure I'd classify McLaurin as great. I think he's good, at times very good,  but he never completely dominates a game the way a real great WR does. He got completely shutdown by a rookie in WItherspoon(granted a talented rookie, but still). I'm not a McLaurin hater, he's a good WR, but he's not an A1 alpha dawg.

 

Oh I'm fine with that. He's not in the same universe as the Chase/Jefferson/Lamb/AJ Brown/Tyreek Hill Tier 1, Tier 1A cohort. He has fit firmly into probably the back end of Tier 2 guys. Guys like Diontae, DK Metcalf, Keenan Allen, Waddle, etc, but w/o the high end upside (to me anyway) of the Waddle's and Metcalf's of the world. If he had competent Quarterbacking, which he never had, he probably would have routinely finished seasons in that 8-18 zone amongst WR's, instead he was usually more like 14-28. He's been good to very good with utter garbage around him and now that we've found a QB, he's exiting his prime. It's unbelievably frustrating. He should still be above average to good through the bulk of the contract, but we blew his prime which was always gonna be short because he was an overage prospect. 

[Going Commando]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

NFL football isn't that difficult. If your players are having this much trouble picking things up then either your players are dumb or your coaching sucks.

 

This is just not true at all.  There are at least 20 different coverages you're going to see each week and 20 pressures, and every team runs their own philosophy.  You have HoF bound 10+ year vets like the Kelce brothers telling you it's still really hard for them to read these things, do you think they're wrong?  If it were easy, do you think QBs would spend an ungodly amount of hours just studying coverages and running their plays for the week through them?  Did you watch QB on Netflix?  Did you see how much time Kirk spends meticulously drawing up all of his plays in his notebook just to establish his comfort level with them for the huddle?  They prepare more for a game each week than most of us will prepare for anything in our professional lives, and then they get into the games and it's still hard to decide what to do.

 

There are probably less than five coaches in the NFL capable of walking their QBs through a complete game and reading it for them and O'Connell is one of them.  But as good as he is, doing that is not sustainable.  NFL defenses prepare just as much, and they adapt and change rapidly.

 

The NFL game is incredibly difficult, and that's not even considering how difficult it is from the physical and emotional perspective.  It's an ultra competitive meat grinder.

[The Consigliere]

19 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

After all these years, to finally hit on a possible franchise QB in the fifth round is some crazy luck, but luck we are definitely due.

Sneaky factoid about it. In terms of drafted and developed elite QB's, we've basically drafted and developed zero since the Great Depression. Grading on a curve, you can give Mark Rypien some above average to good seasons (1989-1992), and you can give us Cousins, who was developed in house, but only ours from '15-'17 as a full time starter. 

 

If Howell hits and we keep him, he'll be the first since Baugh. Williams was the Bucs, Theismann was the Dolphins and that World League, Sonny was the Eagles, Kilmer was a Saint and a Niner, Snead was our draftee, but we traded him after his first 3 years.

 

It's reasonable to argue that no NFL team has ever been as bad as we've been at drafting, developing and holding onto franchise QB's, period, bar none, especially when you add the years involved. Some expansion teams from the last 25+ years have been pretty crappy, hell maybe all of them, but they've all drafted and developed solid starters over the past 25-30 years with the occasional franchise guy (Cam, Watson, Stroud, Lawrence, Brunell are a few examples). Meanwhile our best drafted and developed QB's since the Great Depression that stuck around for a second contract were, "drum roll," No One. We did have Cousins and Rypien as previously mentioned, but basically we have not drafted, developed and kept a franchise QB in nearly 100 years. We are BEYOND due. 

16 minutes ago, Darrell Green Fan said:

 

For a team who announced prior to the draft that they would be drafting a developmental QB I have no idea why they waited until the 5th round. Glad it worked out but what a stupid risk to take.  

Oh yeah, 1000%. The Niners get credit for Purdy, our squad gets credit for Howell, Cowboys get credit for Dak, Patriots get credit for Brady, Rams get credit for Warner. Periodically these low to no draft capital guys hit, but it's not necessarily genius at work to land them, hell Walsh admitted he had Steve Dills ahead of Montana on his draft board in 1979, but the Vikes took Dills, so he waited, and then took Montana at a more reasonable price considering his concerns in that draft. If the teams were geniuses, those guys would've been selected in round 1. We took freaking Phidarian JAG Mathis, and Percy Butler over Howell. That is the absolute height of idiocy. We were LUCKY and stupid for four rounds, then smart in one. 

[RandyHolt]

57 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

....

 

The NFL game is incredibly difficult, and that's not even considering how difficult it is from the physical and emotional perspective.  It's an ultra competitive meat grinder.

Well said. Just looking at plays as they are drawn up looks like a lot to digest. OL calls on the fly vs blitzes and stunts seems very difficult to always get right. The pressure? Yeah don't **** up again and get the QBs clocked cleaned. Play names seem complex to us Biff Laymans.

 

The fist and pounder sure seems... an intriguing play lets call it. For all except the TE...

 

 

This half back better not forget the difference between 24 and 74 on this one play.

Edited November 14, 2023 by RandyHolt

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Warhead36]

Well he's basically under pressure like 90% of the time so... "lolol"

[BatteredFanSyndrome]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

I'm not even sure I'd classify McLaurin as great. I think he's good, at times very good,  but he never completely dominates a game the way a real great WR does. He got completely shutdown by a rookie in WItherspoon(granted a talented rookie, but still). I'm not a McLaurin hater, he's a good WR, but he's not an A1 alpha dawg.

I’ve seen you refer to “A1 Alpha Dawg” as some sort of knock of Terry and I don’t think it’s really fair.  He’s never been the physical specimen that the handful of truly elite WR’s are, hence him being available to us in the 3rd round.  I also don’t see an emphasis by our OC to scheme him open.  But my primary point is that many other teams somehow survive without the this A1 alpha dawg you speak of.  It’s nice to have, but not necessary.

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, BatteredFanSyndrome said:

I’ve seen you refer to “A1 Alpha Dawg” as some sort of knock of Terry and I don’t think it’s really fair.  He’s never been the physical specimen that the handful of truly elite WR’s are, hence him being available to us in the 3rd round.  I also don’t see an emphasis by our OC to scheme him open.  But my primary point is that many other teams somehow survive without the this A1 alpha dawg you speak of.  It’s nice to have, but not necessary.

Actually pretty much all of the playoff contender type teams have one...

 

Chiefs: Kelce

Dolphins: Hill

Bengals: Chase

Bills: Diggs

49ers: McCaffery and Samuel

Eagles: Brown

Lions: St. Brown(Gibbs could be too)

Cowboys: Lamb

Vikings: Jefferson(though he's hurt at the moment)

Seahawks: Metcalf(Walker could be too)

Saints: Kamara(possibly Olave)

 

The only ones that don't are the Ravens and Jaguars. For the Ravens Lamar is such a game changer that he kinda is the team's de facto A1. Jags I think Etienne is kinda on his way there but not quite yet.

 

In today's NFL its imperative not only to have a good QB but to have that omega weapon that can just take over a game. Someone who can win you a game without having to rely 100% on scheme/execution all the time.