The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

If our D had played like a top 5 defense, like they were supposed to, and the way Sam is playing we could have easily been 8-1 right now. 

 

I am really hating Del Rio right now...even more.

[Ball Security]

18 hours ago, Stihl89 said:

If you’re choosing Howell over Caleb I’m sorry but you’re being a homer. Caleb IMO is the 3rd best QB prospect since the Luck class. He has Mahomes level talent. Sam does not. 
 

Let’s live in the real world guys 

Why settle for Williams? Why not just trade for Mahomes? Yeah Williams is younger than Mahomes, but Mahomes is a proven winner. He still has a decade of elite QB play in him. We should just trade for him. 

[Going Commando]

17 hours ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Howell is probably in the Dak, Carr, and Cousins category right now those Qb are 40 million and up. I think Howell makes 900k. You could get alot of top players at other positions with that money.

 

What would be your long term plan with Howell then?  What would you do when it's second contract time and Howell costs 30+ million too?

[Thinking Skins]

 

 

[Going Commando]

11 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

The passing yards are just a mere reflection of how well or good Sam is doing even with our OL, and to put up numbers like these is just not normal. Sure we throw the ball a lot but you still have to complete them to count towards a total. Lawrence never had a rookie year as good as Sam is having but Burrow wasn't bad though. Trevor completed less than 60% of his passes his rookie year. 

 

I look at Howell as a preview to what is to come. The movie has been released but we are not done watching it quite yet. But so far it looks pretty good to me barring any twists towards the end of the movie.

 

As for Caleb, did you know what he said? He said, "I always said even in high school that I don't think there's anything—obviously, he's special, but I don't think there's anything that I can't do that he's doing out there." He already thinks he is at the same level as Mahomes perhaps even better. Is this the guy one should really want? Ego will end your career sooner than one thinks. When you can't live up to the potential you said you have then that is a bust in the making with that attitude. Sam on the other hand is out there trying to prove people who are wrong about him and not who are right about him. I rather have a QB with that kind of mentality because I know they are going to work their butt off and not think they are already better than a SB winning QB (Mahomes hadn't won his 2nd SB yet when he said that).

 

If you think Sam is avg. that is cool. He has played beyond anyone thought he would. Before the season started NFL had him ranked 32 on the QB list. Which is where he supposed to start. Right now they have him listed at 9 in their QB rankings. This is only after 9 games. To you he is avg. But in reality he has done more with less. Pretty sure avg. QBs can't jump that high on the rankings like that after only 9 games. Also an avg. QB won't have over 66% completion or throw for that many yards. I will give you that in the Bills game he played below avg. But even the high and the mighty have bad games too. It is okay to have an off day. Josh Allen did against the lowly Jets. 

 

Let's assume there were no stats - if you evaluated QBs based on just your eyes then what would you say about Howell? Would you say he doesn't have a strong arm or can't make a play from anywhere on the field or twist his body in the opposite direction while jumping up in the air and throwing for over 20+ yards for a completion or make improbable passes to probable or run for 24 yards while knocking defenders down? Would that be considered avg. in your eyes? Do all the avg. QBs play like that?

 

Would you agree then since Josh Dobbs is avg. that means Howell is at the same level as Dobbs? 

 

 

Hokay... so you do believe that Sam is better than Lawrence, and what, at least as good as Burrow?  That was me testing the wind in the thread, and now I realize now that it's gotten really fanciful.

 

BTW, Trevor Lawrence played as a rookie.  Sam is not a rookie, this is his second year.  What did Trevor Lawrence do in his second year?  And me introducing the argument about Josh Dobbs was a reductio ad absurdum, not an indication that I love Josh Dobbs.  It was to demonstrate how specious your logic was, showing that if you followed it to it's conclusion, you get to awful takes like "Josh Dobbs must be greater than any college prospect."

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

If our D had played like a top 5 defense, like they were supposed to, and the way Sam is playing we could have easily been 8-1 right now. 

 

I am really hating Del Rio right now...even more.

It’s not just Del Rio.  It’s also player acquisition, they keep screwing up the secondary.  Counting on a 160lb rookie to be a starting CB from day 1 was a mistake.  
 

A lot of it is Del Rio not being able to get the unit to work together though.  

[Redskins 2021]

2 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

What would be your long term plan with Howell then?  What would you do when it's second contract time and Howell costs 30+ million too?

 Got to wait and see. To early to say.I think it is 2-3 year till we have to pay him. See what team looks like then and see how he plays.

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

 Got to wait and see. To early to say.I think it is 2-3 year till we have to pay him. See what team looks like then and see how he plays.

 

No we'd have to pay him after next season when he becomes extension eligible. I imagine the team and staff will indeed look very different by then, though.

[clskinsfan]

23 minutes ago, CapsSkins said:

 

No we'd have to pay him after next season when he becomes extension eligible. I imagine the team and staff will indeed look very different by then, though.

Thank goodness we have some time to make a decision than. And with the way he has been after 10 starts we are going to end up paying him imo. He will earn it. 

[KDawg]

3 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

Hokay... so you do believe that Sam is better than Lawrence, and what, at least as good as Burrow?  That was me testing the wind in the thread, and now I realize now that it's gotten really fanciful.

 

BTW, Trevor Lawrence played as a rookie.  Sam is not a rookie, this is his second year.  What did Trevor Lawrence do in his second year?  And me introducing the argument about Josh Dobbs was a reductio ad absurdum, not an indication that I love Josh Dobbs.  It was to demonstrate how specious your logic was, showing that if you followed it to it's conclusion, you get to awful takes like "Josh Dobbs must be greater than any college prospect."

Anyone saying he’s Burrow is high. Same to Lawrence but a lesser degree. But he can be.

 

Also, Sam didn’t play his rookie year because our coach admitted he didn’t know he was good. 
 

Yup.

[Ball Security]

31 minutes ago, KDawg said:

Anyone saying he’s Burrow is high. Same to Lawrence but a lesser degree. But he can be.

 

Also, Sam didn’t play his rookie year because our coach admitted he didn’t know he was good. 
 

Yup.

Yeah, but when you have Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke ripping it around in camp and are set at the position, you tend to overlook any in house upgrades.

[Thinking Skins]

Sam Howell played LB. That's something new

[zCommander]

6 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Sam Howell played LB. That's something new

 

Actually old news. He did that in high school.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, but when you have Carson Wentz and Taylor Heinicke ripping it around in camp and are set at the position, you tend to overlook any in house upgrades.

Taylor Hallock can’t rip anything but his pants. 

38 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Sam Howell played LB. That's something new

He’s the backup to Davis.  

[Skinsinparadise]

I lean strongly that Howell is the guy.

 

Though, I don't mind the Caleb and Drake arguments on a superfical basis.   But that's what it feels to me -- a superfical and likely meaningless discussion.  I get the idea of enternaining it if we are headed for a top two pick but we clearly aren't.

 

So for the Caleb-Drake discussion to have any meaning.  These two things likely have to happen.  And the odds are almost zero IMO that they do.

 

A.  The teams who end up with a top 2 pick end up dealing the picks away.  How often does that happen?  It's very rare.  Prospects like these who are ballyhooed to the same extent as Andrew Luck, Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, yet those teams decides "meh" lets build the rest of the roster instead.  It very rarely happens.   I guess if the Bears end up with both pick #1 and #2, it would happen but otherwise I don't see it as even a little bit of a plausible sceanrio

 

B.  What are the odds that a new regime even on the wild off chance have an opportunity to trade up would make their first move to be to discard the most promising QB (if he keeps on this path) we've had arguably since 2012 RG3 AND trade three number ones to move up -- in other words, the first thing the GM would do would be to dump most of their draft capital for the next 3 years.

 

We are talking about 1% or so scenarios.  To me its more mindless entertainment discussion that anything serious.

Edited November 11, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

It’s not that difficult, If Howell was looking like dog **** we’d be after a QB.

 

He isn’t. So we’re fine.

[Koolblue13]

Unless the 3 or 4 other QBs not names Williams or Maye rocket up the board on draft day, like they tend to do, I can definitely see us taking a shot at a day 2 QB and I wouldn't be mad.

 

I think a lot of better OCs are seeing what Howell is doing in a bad offense with bad coaches and have to think they can improve his game, because he has every tool and them some.

[FootballZombie]

I don't watch college football, and I don't do any research on high end prospects unless I feel like we are in position to be picking near the top or have a strong likely-hood of trading up.

 

I don't think we end up with a high pick this year and until the new staff is both in place and signals that trading up is a possibility, I don't put much stock into that idea either. We don't know who will be running the team, what their window to competitiveness looks like, or their general philosophy. We might tear it down and suck by design next year. We might swing to be competitive. Who knows.

 

 

I don't know diddly squat about either of the high end QB prospects, but neither is really on my radar right now.

[goskins10]

38 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I lean strongly that Howell is the guy.

 

Though, I don't mind the Caleb and Drake arguments on a superfical basis.   But that's what it feels to me -- a superfical and likely meaningless discussion.  I get the idea of enternaining it if we are headed for a top two pick but we clearly aren't.

 

So for the Caleb-Drake discussion to have any meaning.  These two things likely have to happen.  And the odds are almost zero IMO that they do.

 

A.  The teams who end up with a top 2 pick end up dealing the picks away.  How often does that happen?  It's very rare.  Prospects like these who are ballyhooed to the same extent as Andrew Luck, Burrow, Trevor Lawrence, yet those teams decides "meh" lets build the rest of the roster instead.  It very rarely happens.   I guess if the Bears end up with both pick #1 and #2, it would happen but otherwise I don't see it as even a little bit of a plausible sceanrio

 

B.  What are the odds that a new regime even on the wild off chance have an opportunity to trade up would make their first move to be to discard the most promising QB (if he keeps on this path) we've had arguably since 2012 RG3 AND trade three number ones to move up -- in other words, the first thing the GM would do would be to dump most of their draft capital for the next 3 years.

 

We are talking about 1% or so scenarios.  To me its more mindless entertainment discussion that anything serious.

 

Thank you! I was about to do something very similar. But you beat me to it and said it better than I would have. Just to build on this: 

 

The only way we should be looking at the top 2 picks is if we have one of them, or maybe, just maybe if we are 3 or 4. For that to happen, the following teams would have to pass us: 

1 - 8 - Carolina and Arizona

2 - 7 - Giants and NE

3 - 7 - Bears

3 - 6 - Rams

3 - 5 - Titans, Broncos, Green Bay, Tampa Bay

4 - 5 - Atalnta since we beat them they pick higher. 

Of those, while we lost to the Bears and Giants, we beat AZ, Atl, aa NE and the Broncos. I get that demonstrates we have only basically beaten ****, they are worse than us. The chances of all those teams winning enough games to pass us and us losing enoguh games is virtually nonexistent at this point. Teams are who they are. 

 

So right now we are 12th. Lets say we get to 6th. From #6 to #2 in 2012 the team traded 2 additional #1s inculding 2012 #6 and the 2012 2nd. BTW - Salt on the wound 2014 turned out to be #2. Had we just drafted Cousins to would not have needed a QB and well you can do your own what ifs from there. If you want to get to #1 then it gets even more expensive, and as SIP said, that's even if anyone will trade with us! 

 

Those currently ahead of us likely needing a QB would be NY,NE, TB amd Atl at the very least. Some of the others like the Rams and even AZ may be in need. So if any of those team are in that 5 above us - exztermely likely - then the price gets even higher. 

 

And that all assumes Sam ****'s the bed. So far he has shown very good growth as the season goes on. His last 2 games have been his last - although you could also argue that when the line started at least playing like and NFL line, not like they just finished rec league football. But still, he is seeing the field better and avoiding so many sacks. A sign of maturing. 

 

I will admit I like Sam. But not just his numbers. I like the attitude, I like his approach. I like all the intangibles that I can see. And the team seems to like him too. He has ise in his blood viens, a cannon for an arm that's poretty accurate and a very short memory. I new regime kicking him to the curb just to do so would be a red flag for me.  

 

Point is you martgage the future. If Sam ****s the bed the rest of the season then I guess you probably have to look at it. But even then it may likely cost you way more than you handle and that's assuming there is a seller. 

 

Roll with Sam in 2024. Get some quality Oline and TE stud if you can maybe a big physical WR #2. See what the kid does. We can talk defesce on another thread. 

[KDawg]

Williams and Maye are pipedreams.

 

Not even worth the convo at this point.

[zCommander]

Commanders' Sam Howell could challenge for being best late-round QB since Tom Brady

Washington's young quarterback has quietly emerged in his second season

 

...And now we get to Howell, a fifth-round selection by the Commanders in 2022. Clearly, based on history, most Day 3 quarterback selections aren't too fascinating. Howell's an exception because before his final season at North Carolina, he was universally regarded as a future first-round pick, and to many, the finest quarterback prospect to be available in the 2022 draft. 

 

This season, Howell has made "the leap." Does that mean he's been absolutely perfect or should be in the MVP race. No. But he's clearly taken a sizable step forward and has routinely connected on throws the vast majority of young quarterbacks simply cannot make. Check how Howell stacks up in the Big-Time Throw (BTT) department with these, let's say, rather well-known passers: 

 

	BTTS THROUGH FIRST 10 NFL STARTS	BTT RATE
Deshaun Watson	25	7.5%
Patrick Mahomes	26	7.3%
Baker Mayfield	26	7.3%
Sam Howell	23	5.9%
Jalen Hurts	20	5.8%
Josh Allen	16	5.7%
Justin Herbert	19	4.7%
Trevor Lawrence	16	4.4%
Joe Burrow	15	3.7%

 

Attention-grabbing, isn't it? And Jalen Hurts is the only other quarterback in that chart who wasn't selected in the first round over the past 10 years. 

 

Of course, quarterbacks shouldn't only be measured by big-time throws and the rates in which they generate them. But, with increasing prevalence of easy, schemed open throws in every NFL offense, it's becoming those BTTs that play a key role in separating the bad from the good, and the good from the great at the quarterback position. 

 

In short, if my quarterback isn't capable of ripping a few big-time throws per game, I'm probably going to need a nearly perfect outing from my offensive coordinator, offensive line, receivers, and running backs to win in most occasions and especially against the most challenging competition. That's a big ask. From the quarterback's perspective, if he can't make those high-degree of difficulty throws, he'll need to be surgical with his accuracy and process like a brand new Mac computer to succeed in the NFL. Another big ask. 

 

And sure, Howell has taken an absurd amount of sacks. His current 11.2% sack rate is high but not unprecedentedly high for a quarterback this early in his professional career. Also, it's common for quality quarterbacks to decrease their sack rate drop as they move forward in their development process. And Howell has certainly proven to be developing in 2023. 

 

Like the sacks, the interceptions and/or turnover-worthy plays have to come down too. Those turnover problems can linger longer than sacks for young quarterbacks, but let's not forget Howell has just completed playing half a regular-season worth of games in the NFL. If he finishes the 2023 season with somewhere between 13-17 interceptions, it won't be overly concerning, particularly if he counters those with 40-plus big-time throws, which is where he's tracking. 

 

Based on what he's shown to date, I believe Howell can be the best Day 3 quarterback since Brady. His competition for that title is most notably Cousins and Prescott. Staying with the BTT theme, Prescott registered nine of them with a tiny 2.8% rate as a rookie in Dallas in 2016. Cousins didn't start his 10th game until his fourth professional season. At the completion of that contest, he had 23 BTTs to his name at a sizable 6.3%, a percentage point higher than Howell. 

 

And the Commanders youngster is a better athlete than Cousins, a physical skill set probably in Prescott's range yet he's already shown more wherewithal and willingness as a runner than either of the veterans. 

 

With Terry McLaurin and former first-round pick Jahan Dotson installed in the offense, Patrick Mahomes long-time offensive coordinator calling his plays, and his team set to have the third-most cap space in football next season (plus a new owner), Howell appears to have all the necessary environmental factors to foster his big-time throw capabilities to eventually cement himself as the shiniest Day 3 gem at quarterback since Tom Brady. 

 

More here: https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/commanders-sam-howell-could-challenge-for-being-best-late-round-qb-since-tom-brady/

 

 

[Thinking Skins]

Yo be fair, I think they should compare Cousins 2015

[Redskins 2021]

 It looks like we may not be even picking top 10. We will be lucky to get one of the top two OT. Forget about the Qb. 

 

Is it worth trading up for the top OT?

Edited November 12, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[Voice_of_Reason]

32 minutes ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yo be fair, I think they should compare Cousins 2015

Absent the sacks, the seasons could end up virtually identical from a statistical perspective.

 

If Howell improves, it could be an even better season.  

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, Thinking Skins said:

Yo be fair, I think they should compare Cousins 2015

 

But to be fair, Cousins played after RG3 got hurt and then some. He had logged 14 on field starts before his 2015 season as a full starter. Howell only played 1 game last year.