The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[zCommander]

 

 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Fan since a Fetus]

When Christ speaks you listen. Although, I never knew his last name was Rapasso. Weird. 

[El Mexican]

9 minutes ago, Fan since a Fetus said:

When Christ speaks you listen. Although, I never knew his last name was Rapasso. Weird. 

 

He be half Italian.

[Going Commando]

3 hours ago, zCommander said:

Please help me find Joe and Trevor on this list. 

 

3 hours ago, zCommander said:

Howell is > Maye or Williams. Why? Because he is already in the NFL and playing really well. Some of you keep on forgetting many had Howell as a 1st rounder maybe a 2nd rounder. If we have had selected him instead of Dotson would you be so eager to dump him and go after Maye or Williams?

 

Normally I don't respond to arguments like this because it genuinely feels like they were made in bad faith, but you seem to be getting some encouragement from the room so I want to ask you, do you seriously think that passing yardage volume demonstrates that Sam is better than Burrow and Lawrence?  Do you really think that being an average player in the NFL automatically makes a player better than any upcoming prospect?  And not just better today, but a player with more potential and more value.  Would you accept this argument if I say that it'd be stupid to waste a draft pick on Olu Fashanu or Joe Alt because Andrew Wylie is already here and > than them because he's got average production against NFL competition?  Would you agree that Josh Dobbs is better than Caleb Williams and Drake Maye because of the same reasoning?

 

Those arguments remind me of the homer "Jamin can't be a reach because draft reaches can't exist," takes from May, 2021.

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

Howell right now has to be seen as a top 10-15 QB in the league after only 10 starts, with a high ceiling because of his arm talent and ability to extend plays and use his legs.

 

He's also on a 5th round rookie contract for one more year.

100% - and he has not come close to hitting his ceiling. No guarantee he will hit that ceiling but positive signs about sack rate the last two games - needs to avoid the bone head plays we see from time to time, but then so did Brett Favre ... it kind of comes with the package of a guy who wants to throw the ball down the field. 

 

2 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Personally, I wouldn't move up for Maye or Williams because neither has played a snap in the NFL, and the first several QBs taken in the draft who come in with a lot of hype, well, the hit rate isn't great:

 

 

Me neither. I also dont think we will be realistically in a range we could make the move up at a cost which is feasible. Then you are into Penix, McCarthy territory and no way would I bring them in over Howell. Still football to be played but I fully expect us to build around Howell at least through next season - and then we will see.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Add a WR, TE and RB….plus 2 OL, I would do all of that via the draft. Howell is going to ****ing ball for us. 

I actually think WR is going to work itself out.  I think Dotson is having a bit of a sophomore slump, which happens, but is a very good WR who gets open a lot.  He's also in the second year of a rookie contract, he's here no matter what, as is Terry.  If you have Terry/Dotson as #1/#2, that's fine.  

 

#3 they can find.  They actually did reasonably well with the combination of Crowder, Brown and Pringle last year.  You can draft a mid-round guy or you can sign a guy.  My assumption is Samuel will not be back.  

 

I think Logan Thomas is a "fine" TE.  But I think he's a FA.  I really want to see more of Turner.  I think the reason we don't see him is his blocking is "meh."  If Turner can't be the guy, then yeah, they need another TE.

 

I would argue they need to completely overhaul the OL room.  Leno is ok, but old.  Gates probably gets cut in the off-season.  Charles won't be re-signed.  Stromboli and Daniels are rookies.  Wylie is ok until he isn't.  Unless Paul shows out significantly in the next 8 games, I think you have openings at LT, LG and RT at a minimum.  Stromberg should damn well be the starting center next year.  

 

RB: I never understood the Rodriguez draft pick.  He's basically a clone of what Robinson does.  I like him.  But I'm not sure what you do with him.  Robinson is good, but not a game breaker and Gibson will not be re-signed.  I think they need a 3rd down back.  But Robinson and Rodriguez are fine as 1st/2nd down backs.  

 

This could change if we bring in another OC, but in the Reid system, with the amount of emphasis on getting the ball to receivers and backs in space, having faster, good receiving backs is more important than powerful/straight ahead types.  Which is a reason why I found it weird we drafted Rodriguez.  

[Stihl89]

If you’re choosing Howell over Caleb I’m sorry but you’re being a homer. Caleb IMO is the 3rd best QB prospect since the Luck class. He has Mahomes level talent. Sam does not. 
 

Let’s live in the real world guys 

[woodpecker]

2 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

Add a WR, TE and RB….plus 2 OL, I would do all of that via the draft. Howell is going to ****ing ball for us. 

I like that plan a lot. Draft young weapons to grow with him. Use your FA dollars to fix LB and add a DE. Address OL in the draft and FA

[Voice_of_Reason]

18 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

If you’re choosing Howell over Caleb I’m sorry but you’re being a homer. Caleb IMO is the 3rd best QB prospect since the Luck class. He has Mahomes level talent. Sam does not. 
 

Let’s live in the real world guys 

The literal only good prospect since the 2012 draft that's hit has been Burrow.  

 

Prospects don't matter.  Results matter.  Luck was a great prospect, and while he was good, he wasn't Peyton Manning level good, and then he was out of the league in a flash.

 

Also, Mahomes went 10th to the Chiefs.  Behind Mitch Trubisky.  MITCH FREAKING TRUBISKY was seen as a better prospect than Mahomes.

 

Josh Allen went with the 7th pick behind Baker and Darnold.

 

There was another poster, Zim89 or something like that, which had a very similar viewpoint to yours, it was all about the prospects.  But he, nor you, could seem to grasp that a prospect is just a prospect.  There is a significant failure rate.  Even for the best prospects.

If you have a guy who could be a top-10-ish guy, you don't try and upgrade for the top-5 guy because there are 3 possible outcomes:

 

1. They fail entirely

2. They end up about the same

3. They are better

 

The odds of hitting the "they are better" are BY FAR the lowest odds.  

[samy316]

33 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

The literal only good prospect since the 2012 draft that's hit has been Burrow.  

 

Prospects don't matter.  Results matter.  Luck was a great prospect, and while he was good, he wasn't Peyton Manning level good, and then he was out of the league in a flash.

 

 

I wouldn't be so sure regarding that Luck take.  Luck was outstanding his rookie season, when you look at the Colts record that year (11-5).  Luck's 6 seasons were the best of any QB since Dan Marino.  He had three 30TD seasons, including one 40 TD season in 2014.  He was definitely on his way to breaking passing records at his trajectory, but the Colts did him no favors by giving him a horrific OL to play with his first 5 years.  The OL was actually getting better right before Luck retired in 2018, so we'll never know if he would've stayed in the NFL had he been more patient.  The only QB's that have matched or will exceed Luck's first few seasons statistically are Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.

 

As a note, the Colts had an 11-5 record in each of Luck's first 3 seasons.  They also went to the playoffs for all but 2 seasons that Luck played in Indy, including an AFC Championship.  Luck was a phenomenal QB, that had a chance to be an all-time great had he played with a better OL.

Edited November 10, 2023 by samy316

[ColonialWBSkinsFan]

2 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

If you’re choosing Howell over Caleb I’m sorry but you’re being a homer. Caleb IMO is the 3rd best QB prospect since the Luck class. He has Mahomes level talent. Sam does not. 
 

Let’s live in the real world guys 

 

I don't think anyone is saying that they would choose Howell over Caleb, in a vacuum.  But the reality is that in order to get up to #1 to draft Caleb it will likely require the next three year's #1 picks.  And that will immediately handcuff a new GM/Coaching staff for their first two years.

[CapsSkins]

3 minutes ago, ColonialWBSkinsFan said:

 

I don't think anyone is saying that they would choose Howell over Caleb, in a vacuum.  But the reality is that in order to get up to #1 to draft Caleb it will likely require the next three year's #1 picks.  And that will immediately handcuff a new GM/Coaching staff for their first two years.

 

But it's more than that. Caleb hasn't proven himself to be elite against elite CFB teams whereas we have data on Howell against NFL competition. There has to be a risk-adjustment "discount" rate on any prospect, Caleb included.

[Redskins 2021]

After watching last night's game and seeing B. Young play I am very happy to have S. Howell. 

 The cost of Sam Howell contract and with all the holes on this team makes me think this should be are Qb till at least his rookie contract is up. 

 For all the great Qb taken in the first rd there is twice as many bust. Howell seems like he is good enough especially with all the holes on the team.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[Voice_of_Reason]

26 minutes ago, samy316 said:

 

I wouldn't be so sure regarding that Luck take.  Luck was outstanding his rookie season, when you look at the Colts record that year (11-5).  Luck's 6 seasons were the best of any QB since Dan Marino.  He had three 30TD seasons, including one 40 TD season in 2014.  He was definitely on his way to breaking passing records at his trajectory, but the Colts did him no favors by giving him a horrific OL to play with his first 5 years.  The OL was actually getting better right before Luck retired in 2018, so we'll never know if he would've stayed in the NFL had he been more patient.  The only QB's that have matched or will exceed Luck's first few seasons statistically are Justin Herbert and Joe Burrow.

 

As a note, the Colts had an 11-5 record in each of Luck's first 3 seasons.  They also went to the playoffs for all but 2 seasons that Luck played in Indy, including an AFC Championship.  Luck was a phenomenal QB, that had a chance to be an all-time great had he played with a better OL.

Ok, I kidof forgot how good Luck was early, and remembered more when he started to have health issues.  I’ll concede the point Luck was great early.  But he was out of the league quickly due to injury.  
 

1 minute ago, Redskins 2021 said:

After watching last night's game and seeing B. Young play I am very happy to have S. Howell. 

 The cost of Sam Howell contract and with all the holes on this team makes me think this should be are Qb till at least his rookie contract is up. 

We have one more year on his rookie contract.  He will need an extension after next year.  They can use “Cap Math” to keep the cap hits down for about 2 years after that.  Then he’s going to be expensive.

 

Assuming he continues on this trajectory.

[Stihl89]

He’s not worth 30-40 mil 

6 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

After watching last night's game and seeing B. Young play I am very happy to have S. Howell. 

 The cost of Sam Howell contract and with all the holes on this team makes me think this should be are Qb till at least his rookie contract is up. 

 For all the great Qb taken in the first rd there is twice as many bust. Howell seems like he is good enough especially with all the holes on the team.

Now would you rather have Stroud?

[Redskins 2021]

14 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

Ok, I kidof forgot how good Luck was early, and remembered more when he started to have health issues.  I’ll concede the point Luck was great early.  But he was out of the league quickly due to injury.  
 

We have one more year on his rookie contract.  He will need an extension after next year.  They can use “Cap Math” to keep the cap hits down for about 2 years after that.  Then he’s going to be expensive.

 

Assuming he continues on this trajectory.

We got more then enough holes on this team to fill see how next year go's. We are not bad enough to move up to get the top Qb without mortgaging the future. See what he can do next year. I use to think Qb was this team problem, now I see it's alot more then that alone.

10 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

He’s not worth 30-40 mil 

Now would you rather have Stroud?

 Would I rather have Stroud probably, but a Qb who can be top 10 to 20 is probably enough. We have alot of other problems on this team. I think if we make the team stronger at other positions he may be enough.

 

The price for Howell the next two year will be relatively cheap see what we can do fix the other hole. Stroud may be better but he costs alot more money.

 

Howell is probably in the Dak, Carr, and Cousins category right now those Qb are 40 million and up. I think Howell makes 900k. You could get alot of top players at other positions with that money.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[Stihl89]

25 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

We have alot of other problems on this team.

I think if you don’t have an elite, top 5-7 type of QB none of the other problems matter. That’s the biggest one there is. It’s step one. 

[Redskins 2021]

7 minutes ago, Stihl89 said:

I think if you don’t have an elite, top 5-7 type of QB none of the other problems matter. That’s the biggest one there is. It’s step one. 

 Matt Stafford won a super bowl. Do you think Howell could be on par with him? Nick Foles won a superbowl.

 

Would having a top 5/7 Qb be nice, of course. It would be very difficult to get that you can win with a functional to upper middle Qb. Howell could fall on his face but so far he looks to be in that upper middle.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Redskins 2021

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, Stihl89 said:

I think if you don’t have an elite, top 5-7 type of QB none of the other problems matter. That’s the biggest one there is. It’s step one. 

This sounds so much like that Zim poster.  Complete blinders except get a top 5 prospect.  Paying no attention to the bust rate of top 5 prospects.

 

He also was really hung up on trading up for Fields, as an attempt to get a top 5 QB, and could never acknowledge the cost to get there.

 

And as for Howell not being worth or being worth something, it’s been 10 games so far, it’s too early to tell anything.  

[KDawg]

Just now, Voice_of_Reason said:

This sounds so much like that Zim poster.  Complete blinders except get a top 5 prospect.  Paying no attention to the bust rate of top 5 prospects.

 

He also was really hung up on trading up for Fields, as an attempt to get a top 5 QB, and could never acknowledge the cost to get there.

 

And as for Howell not being worth or being worth something, it’s been 10 games so far, it’s too early to tell anything.  

I had theorized it is him for awhile now. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I had theorized it is him for awhile now. 

I’m not making any accusations or assumptions, just noting parallels in posting philosophy….

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I’m not making any accusations or assumptions, just noting parallels in posting philosophy….

I’m not, either. That’s why I said I theorized.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I’m not, either. That’s why I said I theorized.

Both screen names ending in an 89 is oddly coincidental…