The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[samy316]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't understand what Wins Above Replacement means for a NFL team. Not saying that it's wrong to say Heinicke/Wentz weren't elevating team play. Just don't understand how they could possibly calculate it.

 

Also one of our 8 wins was Sam Howell. That that only accounts for 7  wins. 

 

Justin Fields doesn't surprise me because Chicago was so bad that I'm not sure how he'd have any wins above replacement. 

 

The best way to calculate WAR is factoring in total points versus wins.  For example, if Wentz or Heinecke started games, and they scored less than 20 points in their starts, you would factor in what that would translate to versus wins.  The more points you're responsible for, the more that victories would be credited to you.  Let's use Mahommes as an example, since he's at the top of the WAR chart.  The Chiefs won 14 games, and in the games that Mahommes started, he was responsible for getting them to average 31 PPG during the season.  This website below breaks down how they calculate WAR for QB's:

 

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2021/05/04/a-primer-for-siss-nfl-wins-above-replacement-war-metric/

 

I couldn't link PFF's writing on how they calculate WAR, but it's similar.  Basically, if you're not putting up points that lead to wins, you're WAR is going to be lower than someone who is.  Wentz & Heinicke were almost negligible in the way that their stats and points lead to no real wins.  They were just passengers for a great defense this year.  Literally anyone who was even marginally better than both those QB's would've netted us 2 extra wins or more.  That's why we have the worst QB situation in the league.  All we need is an average QB to get to 10+ wins and win a playoff game or two.

Edited January 23, 2023 by samy316

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, samy316 said:

 

The best way to calculate WAR is factoring in total points versus wins.  For example, if Wentz or Heinecke started games, and they scored less than 20 points in their starts, you would factor in what that would translate to versus wins.  The more points you're responsible for, the more that victories would be credited to you.  Let's use Mahommes as an example, since he's at the top of the WAR chart.  The Chiefs won 14 games, and in the games that Mahommes started, he was responsible for getting them to average 31 PPG during the season.  This website below breaks down how they calculate WAR for QB's:

 

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2021/05/04/a-primer-for-siss-nfl-wins-above-replacement-war-metric/

 

I couldn't link PFF's writing on how they calculate WAR, but it's similar.  Basically, if you're not putting up points that lead to wins, you're WAR is going to be lower than someone who is.  Wentz & Heinicke were almost negligible in the way that their stats and points lead to no real wins.  They were just passengers for a great defense this year.

 

But points are overall a product of an offense.

 

So it's saying without Mahomes the Chiefs would still win 9 games?

 

I think he's worth more than 5 wins. 

[samy316]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

But points are overall a product of an offense.

 

So it's saying without Mahomes the Chiefs would still win 9 games?

 

I think he's worth more than 5 wins. 

 

As with all things, it depends on the team/and or the defense.  The Chiefs have an average defense, so removing Mahommes from the lineup would probably knock KC down to 6-7 wins.  Chad Henne wouldn't be getting the Chiefs to a #1 seed with the #1 offense.  Mahommes, Herbert and Allen are all extremely valuable to their teams, since all three teams have an average defense at best.  You would rather have an elite QB and an average defense, rather than an average to below average QB and a great to elite defense.  Of the 4 teams left in the playoffs, 3 of them are good to great QB's and Brock Purdy (who we don't know much about yet in 8 starts).

Edited January 23, 2023 by samy316

[redskinss]

Usually when someone comes up with a new way to measure quarterbacks or anyone for that matter there are outliers.

It's a way to show how different statistics can show how players can have hidden value beyond the obvious. 

This war seems pointless, I sure as hell didn't need a new statistical chart to tell me mahomes was good and Wentz and Heinicke suck.

[Skinsinparadise]

I think any new stat that showed that Heinicke and Wentz sucked isn't a revelation of any kind.

 

It's part of my optimism for next season.  They went 500 with abysmal QB play and bad pass protection.

[Skinsinparadise]

I don't think he's better than Mahomes but I do agree he's probaby the next best right now.

 

The other part of it for me with Burrow is I compare him to Montana in that they play big in the biggest moments.

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Est.1974]

I conclude from that chart that both Wentz and Heinicke suck and neither should be anywhere near our roster next season. Oh wait, I’d already come to that conclusion 

 

Carr is a strange one to work out.

[Skinsinparadise]

3 hours ago, Est.1974 said:

I conclude from that chart that both Wentz and Heinicke suck and neither should be anywhere near our roster next season. Oh wait, I’d already come to that conclusion 

 

 

yep besides trusting our own eyes, we can put up stat after stat to back the point, too.   the verdict is in on that point.

 

Brissett did decently on that chart as he did on some others last year.  I don't love Brissett but I like him as a backup-insurance. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

6 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't think he's better than Mahomes but I do agree he's probaby the next best right now.

 

The other part of it for me with Burrow is I compare him to Montana in that they play big in the biggest moments.

 

 

 

For me it’s:

 

Mahomes

Burrow

Allen

Hurts

Rodgers

Herbert = Lawrence

 

Dont think I forgot anyone. But yeah.

 

EDIT: Forgot Rodgers

Edited January 23, 2023 by KDawg

[Warhead36]

Burrow will have more lasting power. Mahomes will drop off faster and harder, but he'll still have a great career first ballot HOF type. Think Favre where once the arm fell off he was dunzo. Burrow I could see being great until he's 40 like Brady.

[Koolblue13]

I know a bunch of Bill's fans and they view Allen a lot like Dak, but worse. It kind of soured me on him a bit.

[Warhead36]

3 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I know a bunch of Bill's fans and they view Allen a lot like Dak, but worse. It kind of soured me on him a bit.

That's crazy. Allen is elite. I don't think he's on Burrow or Mahomes tier as a passer but he's got incredible physical gifts.

 

Honestly the Bills supporting cast is pretty bad compared to the Chiefs and Bengals. Knox is an average at best TE. Their OL is meh. They have no run game. Diggs is a stud WR but their others are geriatric Cole Beasley and super inconsistent Gabe Davis. Their entire gameplan is hope the D dominates and Allen makes amazing plays.

[Skinsinparadise]

Some talk here about the Giants.  They got a really interesting off season ahead because the one thing they really did well IMO is run the ball -- both Barkley and Jones.  But doing the math, if they just want to keep them and their interior O line/depth and lets say 1 of their best 2 Wrs -- they are likely up against the cap. 

 

On defense its their two DTs that get the love and justifably so.  But Lawrence is about to get a Payne like payday, he's a bargain now but that's about to change, his contract is up after this coming season. 

 

An ESPN writer speculated yesterday they will let Barkley go.

 

As for the O line. Thomas got off to a slow start his rookie season but he wasn't awful then, he was just ok and played some of his better games towards the end of the rookie seaon.  Neal wasn't just OK, he was bad, and he wasn't trending up as the season was ending.  And yeah I am rooting against Neal, don't want the Giants to be good. 

 

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Skinsinparadise]

As for the O lines.  At least by PFF metrics its interesting to go through.  I noticed there is good overlap though with DVOA ratings too on the O line.

 

Some of the teams in the playoffs not hot at O line according to PFF.  From worse to best below

 

30th Giants

28th Bengals

27th Seahawks

23rd Bills

22nd Dolphins

19th Jaguars

17th Chargers

13th Vikings

12th Cowboys

9th Tampa

7th 49ers

4th Chiefs

2nd Ravens

1st Eagles

Edited January 23, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Fat Stupid Loser]

43 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I know a bunch of Bill's fans and they view Allen a lot like Dak, but worse. It kind of soured me on him a bit.

Allen seems to be a living cheat code for miraculous plays, but he chokes a lot as well. 

[KDawg]

57 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

I know a bunch of Bill's fans and they view Allen a lot like Dak, but worse. It kind of soured me on him a bit.

I live in Bills country and the Bills fans you know aren’t the same as from the Buffalo market. 
 

[Conn]

1 minute ago, KDawg said:

I live in Bills country and the Bills fans you know aren’t the same as from the Buffalo market. 
 

Yeah Allen is a GOD to local Bills fans. You couldn’t catch them comparing him to Dak 

[ntotoro]

5 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I live in Bills country and the Bills fans you know aren’t the same as from the Buffalo market. 
 

 

My ex-wife is from Amherst. The one thing I've learned is there is a big difference between the Western NY diaspora and those still there... 🤣

[Koolblue13]

10 minutes ago, KDawg said:

I live in Bills country and the Bills fans you know aren’t the same as from the Buffalo market. 
 

The ones around me are on a tropical island and probably a lot happier.

[Captain James]

2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't think he's better than Mahomes but I do agree he's probaby the next best right now.

 

The other part of it for me with Burrow is I compare him to Montana in that they play big in the biggest moments.

 

*TEARS* That's my quarterback...

 

LSU fan.

[KDawg]

17 minutes ago, Conn said:

Yeah Allen is a GOD to local Bills fans. You couldn’t catch them comparing him to Dak 

 

14 minutes ago, ntotoro said:

 

My ex-wife is from Amherst. The one thing I've learned is there is a big difference between the Western NY diaspora and those still there... 🤣

 

9 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

The ones around me are on a tropical island and probably a lot happier.

They all think he’s top 3. Turns the ball over too often but they have an awful OL, no running game. So he doesn’t look as good. I actually overall agree with their sentiments.

 

They have (we’ll see) Diggs and Knox. Other than that there’s inconsistency everywhere and have an OL equally as terrible as ours.

 

They are big time turning on Frasier, though.

Edited January 23, 2023 by KDawg

[Professor_Nutter_Butter]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

That's crazy. Allen is elite. I don't think he's on Burrow or Mahomes tier as a passer but he's got incredible physical gifts.

 

Honestly the Bills supporting cast is pretty bad compared to the Chiefs and Bengals. Knox is an average at best TE. Their OL is meh. They have no run game. Diggs is a stud WR but their others are geriatric Cole Beasley and super inconsistent Gabe Davis. Their entire gameplan is hope the D dominates and Allen makes amazing plays.

So then what are Burrow and Mahomes if Allen is elite but not on their level? I think Allen is a pretty good quarterback, but I bet he comes back down to earth a little now that Brian Daboll isn't there.

[skinsfan66]

3 hours ago, samy316 said:

 

The best way to calculate WAR is factoring in total points versus wins.  For example, if Wentz or Heinecke started games, and they scored less than 20 points in their starts, you would factor in what that would translate to versus wins.  The more points you're responsible for, the more that victories would be credited to you.  Let's use Mahommes as an example, since he's at the top of the WAR chart.  The Chiefs won 14 games, and in the games that Mahommes started, he was responsible for getting them to average 31 PPG during the season.  This website below breaks down how they calculate WAR for QB's:

 

https://www.sportsinfosolutions.com/2021/05/04/a-primer-for-siss-nfl-wins-above-replacement-war-metric/

 

I couldn't link PFF's writing on how they calculate WAR, but it's similar.  Basically, if you're not putting up points that lead to wins, you're WAR is going to be lower than someone who is.  Wentz & Heinicke were almost negligible in the way that their stats and points lead to no real wins.  They were just passengers for a great defense this year.  Literally anyone who was even marginally better than both those QB's would've netted us 2 extra wins or more.  That's why we have the worst QB situation in the league.  All we need is an average QB to get to 10+ wins and win a playoff game or two.

In Washington its always the QB? Worth less Metric?  How about Wentz, Smith, Fitz, others, where all better before they came to DC. How about a metric for before and after. OL metric with different QB's behind them?  Why does a QB that moves to Washington drops off the earth as a legit QB? What is the metric for that.  What was Wentz, metric last year in Indy. If it was better, then you need to look at other things too. 

[skinsfan66]

36 minutes ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

So then what are Burrow and Mahomes if Allen is elite but not on their level? I think Allen is a pretty good quarterback, but I bet he comes back down to earth a little now that Brian Daboll isn't there.

What about WR's the Bengals have? A top 3 in the whole NFL with Chase and the others they are big and athletic.  Makes running that much easier, they have a all-purpose back and a castoff RB who looks great behind that line when getting the tuff yards. TE's who get the job done with no need for a superstar there. WR's do the receiving. And a top QB. Mahomes needs his TE's and his All -purpose backs get the job done too in all weather.  Foe me I like Mahomes first, Herbert or Burrows next.  

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Professor_Nutter_Butter said:

So then what are Burrow and Mahomes if Allen is elite but not on their level? I think Allen is a pretty good quarterback, but I bet he comes back down to earth a little now that Brian Daboll isn't there.

Allen has better pure physical tools than Burrow and Mahomes. Burrow is the best pure passer of the three. Mahomes is kinda in between. All in all I'd say he's the best of the three but there's something about Burrow that I just absolutely love.