The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

A playoff win would absolutely change things and sentiment about the team. It would probably dispel the narrative of Wentz (at least the one where he's as bad as it gets for a starter in the league). But I think more importantly, for sentimental reasons, it would start building our home grown stars in the national spotlight.

 

People would start to realize that Jon Allen, McLaurin, Kam Curl, etc are better players.

 

McLaurin gets lots of love for playing well with bad QB's, but people still generally think he's not close to top half of the league WR1 guy.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

 

 

[Conn]

This is what needs to change. I posted about this in every single gameday thread. To an annoying degree I’m sure for some. But running on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion is not only among the least efficient offensive plays in football—it’s a give up play and a sign of extreme lack of belief in your QB. 
 

 

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 minute ago, Conn said:

This is what needs to change. I posted about this in every single gameday thread. To an annoying degree I’m sure for some. But running on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion is not only among the least efficient offensive plays in football—it’s a give up play and a sign of extreme lack of belief in your QB. 
 

 

 

 

Maybe we should consider changing our head coach's nickname to "Riverboat Ron Except On 2nd and Long)"

[Warhead36]

Yep if you look at it the teams at the top all either had crappy QBs or really good RBs that would kinda justify it(Dallas being the exception to both but McCarthy is an idiot as we all know).

 

Be aggressive. Running on 2nd and 10 is a coward's way to play.

[FootballZombie]

19 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Yep if you look at it the teams at the top all either had crappy QBs or really good RBs that would kinda justify it(Dallas being the exception to both but McCarthy is an idiot as we all know).

 

I was about to say something similar. What if you actually don't believe in your QB, or have a stud in the backfield, or both?

 

Is the guy calling plays for Carolina wrong for running the ball on 2nd n 10 when his options are Sam Darnold and CMC?

Everyone does not have the luxury of having Brady or Mahomes. A lot of teams probably should be playing the conservative game in such a situation. Furthermore, most of the teams on that list that do so are the ones that absolutely should have been operating in such a manner and the teams that don't just so happen to be a collection of upper echelon QBs.

 

I think as great as it is to be aggressive you can't just choose to play like a top flight passing offense for the sake of it. Gotta have the personnel and coaches. If you don't have that, your better off running the ball in that spot.

[Warhead36]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

I was about to say something similar. What if you actually don't believe in your QB, or have a stud in the backfield, or both?

 

Is the guy calling plays for Carolina wrong for running the ball on 2nd n 10 when his options are Sam Darnold and CMC?

Everyone does not have the luxury of having Brady or Mahomes. A lot of teams probably should be playing the conservative game in such a situation. Furthermore, most of the teams on that list that do so are the ones that absolutely should have been operating in such a manner and the teams that don't just so happen to be a collection of upper echelon QBs.

 

I think as great as it is to be aggressive you can't just choose to play like a top flight passing offense for the sake of it. Gotta have the personnel and coaches. If you don't have that, your better off running the ball in that spot.

Agreed, but in that case you've basically already failed from a team building perspective. Significant resources should not be spent on the RB position.

[TheShredder]

34 minutes ago, Conn said:

This is what needs to change. I posted about this in every single gameday thread. To an annoying degree I’m sure for some. But running on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion is not only among the least efficient offensive plays in football—it’s a give up play and a sign of extreme lack of belief in your QB. 
 

 

Bingo!

SF is a rushing offense, 2nd and Long is play action pass, bootleg, or screen. Tricky thing Shanahan does is they can run all these plays from similar formations. TB you're getting a quick read, then dink or dunk.

[TheShredder]

9 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

I think as great as it is to be aggressive you can't just choose to play like a top flight passing offense for the sake of it. Gotta have the personnel and coaches. If you don't have that, your better off running the ball in that spot.

Throwing a slant, dig, or curl for 10 yds is far from aggressive.

Conservative & Predictable play calling is a loser. Time to pull the pampers off and party!

[zCommander]

2 hours ago, Warhead36 said:

Be aggressive. Running on 2nd and 10 is a coward's way to play.

 

I thought it was so that you end up with a more manageable 3rd down. Most OC probably do that to move the sticks. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

2 hours ago, Conn said:

This is what needs to change. I posted about this in every single gameday thread. To an annoying degree I’m sure for some. But running on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion is not only among the least efficient offensive plays in football—it’s a give up play and a sign of extreme lack of belief in your QB. 
 

 

 

To be fair to the Giants, if you remove QB sneaks near their own endzone, that stat probably looks better for them.

[TheShredder]

8 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

To be fair to the Giants, if you remove QB sneaks near their own endzone, that stat probably looks better for them.

Giants ran that sneak because the HC didn't want to risk giving up points with an inept offense that turns the ball over regularly. That got Da Judge fired. Giants over drafted the wrong QB and hired bad coaches. They ran 70% because they couldn't do anything else.

[Conn]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

 

I thought it was so that you end up with a more manageable 3rd down. Most OC probably do that to move the sticks. 

It’s a fallacy, but that’s the thought behind it yeah. In reality two separate attempts at a 10+ yard completion has a higher success rate than one attempt at a 6-7+ yard completion after a predictable (almost 65% of the time!) 3-4 yard run into the teeth of the defense. That’s the thing that makes it such an egregious sin. By trying to hide your QB and make things more “manageable” for him you’re actually making it harder. It’s akin to settled science at this point, running the ball on 2nd-and-10 after an incompletion on 1st down is one of the worst plays in football.

[Voice_of_Reason]

4 hours ago, Conn said:

This is what needs to change. I posted about this in every single gameday thread. To an annoying degree I’m sure for some. But running on 2nd and 10 after an incompletion is not only among the least efficient offensive plays in football—it’s a give up play and a sign of extreme lack of belief in your QB. 

I have an idea: just don't run the ball on first down, second down, or third down.  

 

 

(I found this annoying also. But we also had a crap QB who had a REALLY limited chance of completing a 3rd and 10, especially because those throws in those situations require tight-window throws which TH can't make.  So, as I've said before, they hid TH to the best of their ability.  A lot of runs on first down, a lot of runs on second and 10, etc.  

 

PS: I don't think I replied to whoever posted the stat about the fact we were middle of the road in terms of run/passes on first down.  That stat was surprising, candidly, because I remember complaining about it in the game day threads repeatedly, (as I am one to do).  And if I was complaining about it, it was happening, because I wouldn't post "5th run on first down out of 7" if that wasn't actually the case.  So, I wonder if there is more context to it.  We passed more on first downs when we were behind, in second halves, there were a few games (probably early in the season) which were outliers which skewed the numbers?  I don't know and I'm not going to research it.

 

But what I do know is successful offenses in today's NFL pass heavily on first down, and very rarely on second and 10.  Then they mix in tendency breaks to make sure it's not all in one direction of the other.  

 

The one caveat I'd have to this, if you are Tenn and you want to hand the ball off on 2nd and 10, and you have Henry in the backfield? I wouldn't fault that approach for that team with that player.  I still probably wouldn't do it as much as they do it, but he's likely to get you close-ish to the average pass yards.  In fact, let me look at that up because I'm curious:

 

Yeah, Derrick Henry's career Yards per Attempt is 5.  And in 2019 and 2020 he was over 5 yards a carry.  If you have a RB (and running game) that can give you THAT kind of production, I'll hear you out if you want to run the ball in just about any situation.  Tannehill, fwiw, has a career average yards per attempt of 7.3 with a completion percentage of 64%.

 

The numbers would tell you you're probably still better off with a pass, but.... (and I'm not going to go into the exact math here) but if you pass, 36% of the tie on 2nd and 10, you will find yourself in 3rd and 10.  On the 64% which are complete, you're in a really good spot. Tanny also has a yards per completion over 11, so chances are, if he completes the pass on second down, you're either getting a first down or close to it. 

 

Contrast that with Henry, where you're almost assuredly looking at 3rd and 5.    Is it better to be in 3rd and 5 most of the time, or 3rd and 10 36% of the time? I dunno.  But that's probably why the are run heavy, they like their odds on 3rd and 5 more than being in 3rd and 10 1/3 of the time.  

[Voice_of_Reason]

2 hours ago, zCommander said:

 

I thought it was so that you end up with a more manageable 3rd down. Most OC probably do that to move the sticks. 

Jay would call these "get back on schedule" plays. It's stupid.  

 

But all it does is almost guarantee that you will have a 3rd down.  

 

Whereas if your QB has a completion percentage of ~64% and a yards per attempt of >10, the stats would say 64% of the time, you will complete a pass for a first down ON second down, and not face a 3rd down.  Whereas if you run, you're almost 100% assured to get a 3rd and 6 to 3rd and 8, which is a known passing situation, and is harder to pick up.

 

We did it with TH a lot.  Why?  Because they desperately were trying to limit his attempts, and they were betting on Gibson rather than TH.  Which is fine, Gibson is a starter and TH is a backup.  

 

All of the modern stats (and I'm not even saying advanced stats) show that the most likely way to pick up a first down from 2nd and 10 is to pick it up on second down, rather than putting yourself in a known 3rd down passing situation.  If you fail on the second down and 10, you are unlikely to pick up a 3rd and `10, sure.  But you're much more likely to pick up a first down either ON second down, or you're in a shorter 3rd down than with a run.  

 

All of this is "on average." Context is everything, so there are times when you would run on second and 10.  And sometimes you mix it up just to keep the defense off balance.  

[Koolblue13]

6 hours ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

 

 

PS: I don't think I replied to whoever posted the stat about the fact we were middle of the road in terms of run/passes on first down.  That stat was surprising, candidly, because I remember complaining about it in the game day threads repeatedly, (as I am one to do).  And if I was complaining about it, it was happening, because I wouldn't post "5th run on first down out of 7" if that wasn't actually the case.  

Yes you do and yes you did. 

[Skinsinparadise]

lol, I think I am braced for the wild swings -- hopefully and I think we will get it -- more ups than downs. 

 

 

Zangaro, a reporter for NBC Sports Philadelphia who was once prepared to write a book about the Eagles' selection of Carson Wentz, knows the now-29-year-old quarterback more than most. So, in a recent Washington Football Talk podcast episode, Zangaro was kind enough to share his thoughts about Wentz.

In doing so, he passed along a warning to those who care about the Commanders: Be ready for ups and downs, and in his mind, likely more of the latter than the former.

 

"The most frustrating thing about him is you still see the glimpses of a special player," Zangaro told the podcast. "He's still big and strong, he still has a rocket of an arm, he can throw on the run about as well as anybody in the league, he can still buy time and he teases you with all that. 

"You'll probably see it this year, there will be moments where you look at him and go, 'All right, that guy has top-10 talent,' and then it feels like he just can't get out of his own way. It's tough to watch."

 

During his time on the show, Zangaro recounted how joyous it was to cover Wentz's early days with the Eagles.

According to him, the organization first fell in love with the North Dakota State product at the Senior Bowl, and from there, the franchise cared about one question: "How are we going to get this guy?"

Eventually, Philly of course shipped away serious capital in a trade to acquire him second overall, and the initial returns on the move were spectacular. In Zangaro's mind, Wentz's 2017 MVP-type season that ended with a torn ACL has faded too quickly from many memories, while he remained "relatively consistent" aside from other injuries in 2018 and 2019.

 

What's caused Wentz's downfall since, at least per Zangaro, is that he has immense trouble avoiding, well, immense trouble.

"It's like he thinks he's Brett Favre," Zangaro said at one point of the interview.

"Even as we saw last year in Indy, the mistakes are just the worst mistakes ever," he later added.

And the fact that Wentz couldn't get right with the Colts, where he teamed up with his ex-Eagles offensive coordinator in Frank Reich, has made Zangaro skeptical that Wentz will suddenly correct his flaws with the Commanders.

In all, Zangaro is still bewildered at how rapidly Wentz's reputation has crumbled. Like Charles Barkley said in a separate chat on the podcast, the "fall from grace" has been jarring.

 

Therefore, even if Wentz logs a couple of strong performances for Washington to begin 2022 or catches fire for a month halfway through the schedule, Zangaro — and he likely won't be alone — will be waiting for the other side of Wentz to reveal itself.

"There are still moments when you see it in him," Zangaro said, "but they're fleeting at this point."

 

 

 

[Warhead36]

Meh Ill take wild swings. It beats the consistency of 150 yards passing 1 TD 1 Int at best. 

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

lol, I think I am braced for the wild swings -- hopefully and I think we will get it -- more ups than downs. 

I listened to the podcast this article was based on, it was actually pretty balanced overall.  
 

On Wentz. I think it was just basically the normal narrative.  But what I found interesting is the guy gave Wentz a lot of credit for a lot of things then still came back to “but it didn’t work out and he can’t help himself with some stupid plays.” 
 

What is an undisputed fact is Wentz had a really good 2019, they made the playoffs in large part because Wentz played really well down the stretch, and they might have won the playoff game but he took a dirty hit and got a concussion after 9 plays. And even he admitted history might have been different and Wentz might still be in Philly if not for that hit.

 

JP said he throws out the 2017 season because after the back and knee injuries, that guy doesn’t exist.  And he also throws out the 2020 season because that was a confluence of terrible events.

 

If yiu take the other seasons, Wentz is good for about 4K yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  
 

And we’ll take that if that’s the floor.

 

But getting back to the Eagles guy, it was interesting because he said a lot of good things about Wentz.  But then he brought up the left handed interceptions and hero ball as if that was “end of story, he’s doomed.”  
 

We’ll see. 

As an aside he also said the entire Eagles season rests on Hurts because minus the Brown addition, they’re basically running back the entire offense.  Brown is a big addition, but Hurts is going to have to take a major step forward as a passer if they have a chance to be competitive for what they want to be competitive for. 

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I listened to the podcast this article was based on, it was actually pretty balanced overall.  
 

On Wentz. I think it was just basically the normal narrative.  But what I found interesting is the guy gave Wentz a lot of credit for a lot of things then still came back to “but it didn’t work out and he can’t help himself with some stupid plays.” 
 

What is an undisputed fact is Wentz had a really good 2019, they made the playoffs in large part because Wentz played really well down the stretch, and they might have won the playoff game but he took a dirty hit and got a concussion after 9 plays. And even he admitted history might have been different and Wentz might still be in Philly if not for that hit.

 

JP said he throws out the 2017 season because after the back and knee injuries, that guy doesn’t exist.  And he also throws out the 2020 season because that was a confluence of terrible events.

 

If yiu take the other seasons, Wentz is good for about 4K yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  
 

And we’ll take that if that’s the floor.

 

But getting back to the Eagles guy, it was interesting because he said a lot of good things about Wentz.  But then he brought up the left handed interceptions and hero ball as if that was “end of story, he’s doomed.”  
 

We’ll see. 

As an aside he also said the entire Eagles season rests on Hurts because minus the Brown addition, they’re basically running back the entire offense.  Brown is a big addition, but Hurts is going to have to take a major step forward as a passer if they have a chance to be competitive for what they want to be competitive for. 

 

I'll check it out.  I've listened to a ton of narratives about Wentz.

 

I am braced and the stats back it up of a high and low type of season.  But as I said i think the stats are clear that the highs trump the lows.  Plus I do think this is the best supporting cast he's ever had.

 

Also i like at least in theory, Zampese's apporach or so it seems which is to embrace Wentz and just ride his style -- highs and lows.  

 

I am not a big believer in changing a QB's approach radically because I think it makes them think too much.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

Meh Ill take wild swings. It beats the consistency of 150 yards passing 1 TD 1 Int at best. 

 

Ironically that part in bold describes Wentz' last 8 games last season.

 

Six of his last 8 games were 185 yards or less, and in all 6 of those games he threw one TD (in one of the games he threw no TDs).

[Koolblue13]

Wentz hasn't been surrounded by a roster this talented since '17 and ours is better. He just needs to trust the team and the system and not feel like hes all they have, like his '00 season. 

 

I'm not in the least bit worried about him and I'm pretty sure I was the first to bring him up, despite being told Trubs is better.

[mistertim]

I had already prepared myself for up and down play with Fitz last season, so I'll just carry that over with Wentz this year. Difference between them (besides age) is that Wentz has the talent to be a top 10 or even top 5 QB. Fitz was never in that ballpark.

[skinny21]

Generally speaking, I’m all for a team passing far more than they run on 2nd and 10.  It’s statistically the better option.  I’d lean toward spreading the offense out, motioning a player to (try to) ascertain man vs zone, have quick hitters with deeper routes over the top.  And just in case, have a run play out of the same formation your qb can audible to.  Obviously I’d mix in tight formations, play action, draw plays, you name it (depending on the factors below).

 

There’s so much nuance to consider though:

 

Defensive tendencies - do they blitz in that situation?  Play quarters?  Etc.

Defensive statistics - how they perform vs run/pass on 2nd and 10, vs spread, etc.

Matchups

Is your oline better at pass pro or run blocking?

Do you feel your qb needs the run game established to succeed?

How many defenders are in the box?

Are defenders playing tight or off?

Situational factors - time on the clock, placement on the field, score, etc.

How has the offense performed to that point - is your qb facing a lot of pressure?  Is the D shutting down your ground game (or short/long pass game)?  Are you running the ball at will?

And so on

 

Can’t say I envy OCs trying to distill all of that info (and more) in seconds and making the right call in the moment.  When in doubt though, I’m leaning toward the players I trust the most.  Obviously you hope that’s your qb, but as others have pointed out, that’s not the case with every team.

[Mrshadow008]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I listened to the podcast this article was based on, it was actually pretty balanced overall.  
 

On Wentz. I think it was just basically the normal narrative.  But what I found interesting is the guy gave Wentz a lot of credit for a lot of things then still came back to “but it didn’t work out and he can’t help himself with some stupid plays.” 
 

What is an undisputed fact is Wentz had a really good 2019, they made the playoffs in large part because Wentz played really well down the stretch, and they might have won the playoff game but he took a dirty hit and got a concussion after 9 plays. And even he admitted history might have been different and Wentz might still be in Philly if not for that hit.

 

JP said he throws out the 2017 season because after the back and knee injuries, that guy doesn’t exist.  And he also throws out the 2020 season because that was a confluence of terrible events.

 

If yiu take the other seasons, Wentz is good for about 4K yards and a 2:1 TD:INT ratio.  
 

And we’ll take that if that’s the floor.

 

But getting back to the Eagles guy, it was interesting because he said a lot of good things about Wentz.  But then he brought up the left handed interceptions and hero ball as if that was “end of story, he’s doomed.”  
 

We’ll see. 

As an aside he also said the entire Eagles season rests on Hurts because minus the Brown addition, they’re basically running back the entire offense.  Brown is a big addition, but Hurts is going to have to take a major step forward as a passer if they have a chance to be competitive for what they want to be competitive for. 

If you look at every season Wentz has had 2 bad seasons. His rookie year and 2020. I Know you like to point to 2019 but 2018 as well coming off the acl tear 11 games 3074 yards 69.4% completion 21 TDS 7 Picks. Wentz even including the outliers in Ints in his rookie season and 2020 is 7th all time in TD/INT ratio at 2.46. Here's my favorite stat though vs the nfc east 42 Tds to 14 ints a 3:1 td to int ratio