The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Redskins 2021]

I dont think K. Murray will get that extension this year. If it goes poorly this year Arizona will fire the coach and he may become available. 

There are more potential franchise Qb available next year but that does not help us now. A team probably would be more willing to deal a Wilson or Rodgers if they thought they could draft a replacement with the pick they acquire. We would need to acquire picks in order make a trade like that.

We really should have traded for Stafford last year.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Koolblue13]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I very much dislike this option.

 

But I think this is the route we're going to go when we strike out on the big names.

 

I could see them taking a Zappe or a Ridder late.

 

I don't like it at all and it's going to bother the **** out of me. But I think you're right that this is how its going to go. 

Ridder is my guess as well.

[mistertim]

14 minutes ago, MartinC said:

I am now squarely in the sign a vet guy like Winston/Mariota/Trubisky to a prove it type deal. Give them next year to see if you can catch lightening in a bottle with Heinicke as the backup.

 

This draft I try to trade back (which might be easier said than done) to pick up extra picks next year to give us ammunition to bet the farm on trading up to get a QB next season. If I cant trade back I take a BPA approach and continue to build the roster. There are some good receivers, its a deep group on the O'line and it's a good corner class. Take value let's not reach for a QB in a weak class.

 

I just don't think this is the year to take a QB high - it feels like if we did we are just going to waste a couple more years finding out we swung and missed or getting an average starter at best.

 

The problem here is that unless something drastic happens I seriously doubt we're going to be in a position to draft a top QB in 2023. We had a tough schedule this season and poor to mediocre QB play and we still ended up winning 7 games.

 

If we get a so-so upgrade like Mariota/Winston/Trubisky and add the easier schedule then I'm guessing we'll be able to win 8 or 9 games, which means we'll probably be picking in the mid to late teens.

 

So yeah, 2023 will probably be a better draft for consensus top tier QB talent, but we're not going to be in a position to get one of those guys unless we literally give up our next 2 drafts to move from ~18 to top 2.

[Skinsinparadise]

Keim's latest podcast.  

 

A.  Before the Senior Bowl, Pickett was the Commanders top QB in this draft.   He's hinted at that before but flat out said it this time.  By saying before the Senior Bowl, it suggests to me he hasn't talked to anyone there since the Senior Bowl to see if anything changed. 

 

B.  He has a hard time seeing them take Wilis at 11 but that's not based on anything he's heard as for their take on him -- more based on being pro ready.  He didn't rule him out though.

 

C.  Ridder, they see him as inconsistent but as to other pocasts he mentioned they are intrigued with his skill set.  On the table in round 2 but probably not in round 1. 

 

D.  Sam Howell -- he doesn't see him coming here, he said certainly not at 11, pretty much hinted they aren't big on him compared to the others in this group (this again I assume is their take pre Senior Bowl)

 

E. Carson Strong.  Live arm, inconsistent accuracy.  Along with Ridder, they are likely interested in Strong in round 2.  

 

F. If they trade for Jimmy G or sign Trubisky he expects them to draft a QB too

 

G.  He knows they have interest in Jimmy G (though I know from other podcasts he's not Plan A for them)

 

In previous podcasts,(and he said nothing to contradict that today) his mantra has been.

 

A.  Swing for a Big QB, if they miss...

B.  Swing of a 2nd tier QB, if they miss...

C.  Sign a FA, trade for Jimmy G and draft a QB in the 2nd round (Ridder or Strong)

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

The problem here is that unless something drastic happens I seriously doubt we're going to be in a position to draft a top QB in 2023. We had a tough schedule this season and poor to mediocre QB play and we still ended up winning 7 games.

 

If we get a so-so upgrade like Mariota/Winston/Trubisky and add the easier schedule then I'm guessing we'll be able to win 8 or 9 games, which means we'll probably be picking in the mid to late teens.

 

So yeah, 2023 will probably be a better draft for consensus top tier QB talent, but we're not going to be in a position to get one of those guys unless we literally give up our next 2 drafts to move from ~18 to top 2.

 

Prepare yourself for this being the check swing and pray attempt that the Commanders make. Because they are going to talk themselves out of a QB for some other position with a guy who looks elite in college yet again. I can feel it happening. It's like that bad gut feeling you get when you know something is off... I feel it.

[Redskins 2021]

4 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

The problem here is that unless something drastic happens I seriously doubt we're going to be in a position to draft a top QB in 2023. We had a tough schedule this season and poor to mediocre QB play and we still ended up winning 7 games.

 

If we get a so-so upgrade like Mariota/Winston/Trubisky and add the easier schedule then I'm guessing we'll be able to win 8 or 9 games, which means we'll probably be picking in the mid to late teens.

 

So yeah, 2023 will probably be a better draft for consensus top tier QB talent, but we're not going to be in a position to get one of those guys unless we literally give up our next 2 drafts to move from ~18 to top 2.

Move down this year get as many picks as possible 

[Dark Acre]

5 hours ago, KDawg said:

He's right about the floor and ceiling. However, I'm not sure the floor being disregarded is at all smart from a strategic point of view.

Floor matters if it's high enough and is position-adjusted.  That's why Dallas took DT Russell Maryland with the #1 overall in the 1991 draft (which turned out to be pretty bad top to bottom).  They had no consensus #1 pick and figured that of all the positions they drafted, if he turned out to be mediocre, a DT would still provide them with some return.  If you're going to be stuck with a mediocre player, DT in a 4-3 will still get some results, clogging the OL, forcing the run, etc.  A mediocre QB, you might as well start playing draft simulator.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

 

[DWinzit]

3 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

A.  Swing for a Big QB, if they miss...

B.  Swing of a 2nd tier QB, if they miss...

C.  Sign a FA, trade for Jimmy G and draft a QB in the 2nd round (Ridder or Strong)

If we end up at #3 looking in the Jimmy G, Mariota, Trubisky pool. we may also promise not taking a QB at 11 to entice them coming to Washington. If that happens I could see waiting until the second round. My guess is there will be a small run on QB's late in the first of the beginning of the second round. They will need to trade up from 42 to grab one. At this point I no longer see Zappe better than 3rd rounder with little starter ability...I lost some faith in the Senior Bowl although his OL sucked

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Dark Acre said:

 A mediocre QB, you might as well start playing draft simulator.

 

I see this take all the time and I think it's wrong. Sorry, I do.

 

Of course, there's nuance.

 

Doing what the Packers did with Love is a bad play. They drafted a mediocre QB before Rodgers was even close to his end and now they have a situation where they may get stuck with that mediocre QB.

 

However, when you are trying to improve from Taylor Heinicke a mediocre QB on a 5 year deal is not always a bad decision.

 

If that QB is even JUST mediocre, this team is vastly improved. Super Bowl contender? No. But respectable. That gets free agents in the door. That gets positive attention. That puts the spotlight on and gets the franchise in player's minds. Without a QB... you have absolutely nothing. Which is where we are.

 

The key though is to be able to pull the trigger and move on from the mediocre QB to a much better QB when the roster is performing well but not a true contender. The Titans with Tannehill is an example, but they can't because of the enormous deal). The Browns would be wise to do that with Mayfield right now. He helped bring that team back from the absolute pits of despair to being a scrappy underachiever that is talent laden. Now they need the top end QB to get them to the next level. 

 

There are levels to building. The Bengals hit the lottery with Burrow and their other decisions. 

 

But that's a very rare hit. You have to plan for the build differently based on where you are.

 

Right now I don't think any of the QBs in the draft are going to turn out to be top 10 or 5 guys in this league. But I think there's 3-5 of them that could improve this franchise in the short term long enough for us to draw guys in... Including a better QB via trade.

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Prepare yourself for this being the check swing and pray attempt that the Commanders make. Because they are going to talk themselves out of a QB for some other position with a guy who looks elite in college yet again. I can feel it happening. It's like that bad gut feeling you get when you know something is off... I feel it.

 

National reporters and local, heck even pessimist Ben Standig expect big swings, not check swings.  Rivera himself hinted at it. The question is clearly do they connect on that swing.  But I'd be stunned if its not a big swing.  I wouldn't be stunned at all if its a miss.

 

Right now, I think it ends up either Trubisky, Mariota or Jimmy G with either Ridder or Strong.  And in turn they get better play than they did compared to Heinicke but at the same time realize they still need a Qb in 2023.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[Redskins 2021]

It looks like Trubisky or JimmyG.  

[DWinzit]

5 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

National reporters and local, heck even pessimist Ben Standig expect big swings, not check swings.  The question is clearly do they connect on that swing.  But I'd be stunned if its not a big swing.  I wouldn't be stunned at all if its a miss.

 

Right now, I think it ends up either Trubisky, Mariota or Jimmy G with either Ridder or Strong.  And in turn they get better play than they did compared to Heinicke but at the same time realize they still need a Qb in 2023.

While not exciting, a Trubisky, Mariota or Jimmy G with either Ridder or Strong plus TH would put this team in a far better place moving forward

 

Oh and forget about your Davis Webb dreams, the Giants signed him 

Edited February 7, 2022 by DWinzit

[mistertim]

9 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

Prepare yourself for this being the check swing and pray attempt that the Commanders make. Because they are going to talk themselves out of a QB for some other position with a guy who looks elite in college yet again. I can feel it happening. It's like that bad gut feeling you get when you know something is off... I feel it.

 

Yeah I have a sinking feeling about this as well. Another issue is Ron being on the hot seat. If we go through his first 3 seasons without a legit QB then how much rope is he really going to have left going into his 4th season with no QB and just hoping that they can figure out a way to move up for a top prospect in 2023? I have a feeling it won't be much. 

 

8 minutes ago, Redskins 2021 said:

Move down this year get as many picks as possible 

 

Probably won't matter because moving down this year will probably only net us an additional 2nd unless some team tries to move up to 11 from way down at the bottom of the 1st and I don't see why anyone would do that considering teams usually only do that for QBs and this QB class doesn't have clear cut studs.

 

An additional 2nd and 3rd round pick will almost be meaningless if we're talking about potentially moving up from mid to late teens to top 2 in 2023. So in 2023 we'll still likely be looking for a guy who falls farther than expected. Meaning it doesn't matter if there are consensus blue chip prospects in 2023. We won't be getting one of them unless the team completely implodes.

[RabidFan]

I know Corral wasn't playing at the SB but why didn't Keim mention him in any scenarios of interest or pecking order?

[Skinsinparadise]

2 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

If we end up at #3 looking in the Jimmy G, Mariota, Trubisky pool. we may also promise not taking a QB at 11 to entice them coming to Washington. If that happens I could see waiting until the second round. My guess is there will be a small run on QB's late in the first of the beginning of the second round. They will need to trade up from 42 to grab one. At this point I no longer see Zappe better than 3rd rounder with little starter ability...I lost some faith in the Senior Bowl although his OL sucked

 

I get the impression that they don't see a lot of seperation between the top Qbs in the draft so they are comfortable taking QB 5 or 6 whomever that ends up.  

 

Keim isn't always right but he usually is.  And he couched his podcast at least when he talked about Pickett as pre Senior Bowl.  Piecing together his podcasts.

 

A.  They like Pickett.  Don't get the impression they love him.  But pre Senior Bowl saw him as the safest pro ready pick.

B.  Willis -- not sure, outside of not at 11 probably.  But again that was pre Senior Bowl

C.  Corral -- also not sure, he hinted in one podcast maybe in a trade down in the first but otherwise he hasn't elaborated on him

D.  Howell -- for the Howell people here they'd hate today's podcast, he was pretty much saying he's not one of their guys, there are others here they like better (but again that might be pre Senior Bowl)

E.  Ridder -- intrigued but sounds like purely in the 2nd.

F.  Strong -- same as Ridder.

G.  He hasn't said a word on Zappe

[RWJ]

13 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim's latest podcast.  

 

A.  Before the Senior Bowl, Pickett was the Commanders top QB in this draft.   He's hinted at that before but flat out said it this time.  By saying before the Senior Bowl, it suggests to me he hasn't talked to anyone there since the Senior Bowl to see if anything changed. 

 

B.  He has a hard time seeing them take Wilis at 11 but that's not based on anything he's heard as for their take on him -- more based on being pro ready.  He didn't rule him out though.

 

C.  Ridder, they see him as inconsistent but as to other pocasts he mentioned they are intrigued with his skill set.  On the table in round 2 but probably not in round 1. 

 

D.  Sam Howell -- he doesn't see him coming here, he said certainly not at 11, pretty much hinted they aren't big on him compared to the others in this group (this again I assume is their take pre Senior Bowl)

 

E. Carson Strong.  Live arm, inconsistent accuracy.  Along with Ridder, they are likely interested in Strong in round 2.  

 

F. If they trade for Jimmy G or sign Trubisky he expects them to draft a QB too

 

G.  He knows they have interest in Jimmy G (though I know from other podcasts he's not Plan A for them)

 

In previous podcasts,(and he said nothing to contradict that today) his mantra has been.

 

A.  Swing for a Big QB, if they miss...

B.  Swing of a 2nd tier QB, if they miss...

C.  Sign a FA, trade for Jimmy G and draft a QB in the 2nd round (Ridder or Strong)

 

 

Right now, unless I am misunderstanding Pickett is their #1 and if available, they take him at #11?  

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, RabidFan said:

I know Corral wasn't playing at the SB but why didn't Keim mention him in any scenarios of interest or pecking order?

 

Because he was talking about the Senior Bowl.  He didn't really go full pecking order he just mentioned some thoughts that could lead to a pecking order.

3 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Right now, unless I am misunderstanding Pickett is their #1 and if available, they take him at #11?  

 

In a different podcast, he hinted they'd take Pickett at #11 but don't expect him to be there at #11 but also hinted he didn't think they'd trade up to go get him.

 

Today he doubled down on Pickett but also said that was pre Senior Bowl.  I took that as if he didn't have a current conversation with his sources.   Should be interesting to see if anything changes when he does have a post Senior Bowl conversation. 

Edited February 7, 2022 by Skinsinparadise

[RWJ]

10 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Right now, I think it ends up either Trubisky, Mariota or Jimmy G with either Ridder or Strong.  And in turn they get better play than they did compared to Heinicke but at the same time realize they still need a Qb in 2023.

IF this is what they ended up with I'd be ok with it.  

[88Comrade2000]

1 hour ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

I'm not entirely sure why, but I think Wilson is just done with Seattle.  He said something about "evaluating his options."  You NEVER hear a QB under contract say something like that unless there's something going on.  I don't know what it is.  You'd think they could work it out, but it appears as though they haven't. 

 

I think he was really hoping Carroll would retire, and he could go to the brass, and at least make recommendations as to who he would like to work with, both at the HC and OC level.  That doesn't mean they HAVE to hire those folks, but if it were me, I would at least solicit input from my most important employee.  

 

But Carroll stuck around.  It could be Wilson thinks Carroll has lost his fastball (he is 70), and they're never going to get over the hump with him now.  I also think Wilson would NEVER say that publicly, or even have it leaked.  

 

Things just don't seem right.  Which doesn't mean anything.  Wilson would still have to ask out.  I kindof think he is going to.  I also think Rodgers/Adams to Denver is about as much of a bet as you can get.  They want him, they have the cap room and the draft capital to make it happen.  So I think it will happen.  

Russ wants to cook. He dislikes the run focused offense Pete runs.  If he asks to be traded; that will be the reason why.

[slinky]

41 minutes ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

If Dan was drafting, I could see this.

If? ha. we know he will.

[Redwards]

32 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Keim's latest podcast.  

 

A.  Before the Senior Bowl, Pickett was the Commanders top QB in this draft.   He's hinted at that before but flat out said it this time.  By saying before the Senior Bowl, it suggests to me he hasn't talked to anyone there since the Senior Bowl to see if anything changed. 

 

B.  He has a hard time seeing them take Wilis at 11 but that's not based on anything he's heard as for their take on him -- more based on being pro ready.  He didn't rule him out though.

 

C.  Ridder, they see him as inconsistent but as to other pocasts he mentioned they are intrigued with his skill set.  On the table in round 2 but probably not in round 1. 

 

D.  Sam Howell -- he doesn't see him coming here, he said certainly not at 11, pretty much hinted they aren't big on him compared to the others in this group (this again I assume is their take pre Senior Bowl)

 

E. Carson Strong.  Live arm, inconsistent accuracy.  Along with Ridder, they are likely interested in Strong in round 2.  

 

F. If they trade for Jimmy G or sign Trubisky he expects them to draft a QB too

 

G.  He knows they have interest in Jimmy G (though I know from other podcasts he's not Plan A for them)

 

In previous podcasts,(and he said nothing to contradict that today) his mantra has been.

 

A.  Swing for a Big QB, if they miss...

B.  Swing of a 2nd tier QB, if they miss...

C.  Sign a FA, trade for Jimmy G and draft a QB in the 2nd round (Ridder or Strong)

 

 

C. isn't a viable plan if this FO truly wants to compete and win a SB.   Ridder and Strong are very, very lukewarm prospects in a lukewarm prospect draft.  Jimmy G isn't getting this team to a SB.  SF and NE knew that.  Hard pass.

 

If A. doesn't work out, I sign a FA and then trade far down or out of the first round completely, pick up an extra 1st rounder next year to use as ammo on a much better prospect.  (This FO needs to be more forward-thinking like the Giants and Eagles are).  Anything less is just wasting time, IMO.  

 

Ron's grand plan backfired on him.  He did what he thought was right, so I'm not fuming at him, but the absolute worst thing he could do this offseason is force himself to settle for a mediocre QB situation because of the pressure of the rebrand and the dwindling fans.  There is zero point in this.  It gets us nowhere.  Suck it up for one more season if necessary, procure the ammo for next year and then take the huge swing that a strong QB class warrants.  

 

I just have the feeling that this FO is going to force itself into a less than stellar QB situation, bypass much stronger candidates next year, and then be in no man's land again 3 years from now.  I truly feel that's what is going to happen.  Man...I hope I'm wrong as can be about that though.  

32 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

The problem here is that unless something drastic happens I seriously doubt we're going to be in a position to draft a top QB in 2023. We had a tough schedule this season and poor to mediocre QB play and we still ended up winning 7 games.

 

If we get a so-so upgrade like Mariota/Winston/Trubisky and add the easier schedule then I'm guessing we'll be able to win 8 or 9 games, which means we'll probably be picking in the mid to late teens.

 

So yeah, 2023 will probably be a better draft for consensus top tier QB talent, but we're not going to be in a position to get one of those guys unless we literally give up our next 2 drafts to move from ~18 to top 2.

Trade out of the first this year, get a 1st and change next year.  There's your ammo.  Get creative.  We need to be forward-thinking for a change.  I'd rather us take a big swing in a talented QB class than waste a pick on one of the QBs i the draft.  And I REALLY want a QB.     But if we gotta suck it up for one more year, I don't care.  We aren't sniffing the SB this coming season anyway, IMO.

Edited February 7, 2022 by Redwards

[skinny21]

4 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

National reporters and local, heck even pessimist Ben Standig expect big swings, not check swings.  Rivera himself hinted at it. The question is clearly do they connect on that swing.  But I'd be stunned if its not a big swing.  I wouldn't be stunned at all if its a miss.

 

Right now, I think it ends up either Trubisky, Mariota or Jimmy G with either Ridder or Strong.  And in turn they get better play than they did compared to Heinicke but at the same time realize they still need a Qb in 2023.

I could be wrong, but I think that’s @KDawg’s point - they’ll try for the big swing, but it won’t work.

 

In my eyes, we have 2 advantages in terms of going with a rookie (and bridge) qb - we have some talent on the roster, and we have some cap space (and draft picks) to improve the roster.  And that’s why I’m against going with Garoppolo - we lose most of the cap space (and this could be a multi-year impact if we extend him) and likely give up a decent draft pick to do so.  Even worse if we draft another position in the 1st, and give up our 2nd for Jimmy (hopefully it would be less though), leaving us without a qb with potential on the roster… ie hope for the future.  It would be a repeat of this past year - bringing in Fitz and not landing a guy in the draft.

 

With that said, the above won’t preclude them (necessarily) from targeting/moving up for a qb next year, even though we likely have to give up more to get them.  It does diminish our ability to add other talent or re-sign guys though.

[MartinC]

31 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

 

 

So yeah, 2023 will probably be a better draft for consensus top tier QB talent, but we're not going to be in a position to get one of those guys unless we literally give up our next 2 drafts to move from ~18 to top 2.

 

Thats the 'bet the farm' bit. If we do opt out of taking a QB high this year and bring in a vet who proves to be meh at best then we have to go all in next season. It will be a three first round picks and change type trade up. 

[KDawg]

9 minutes ago, Redwards said:

 

 

Ron's grand plan backfired on him.  He did what he thought was right, so I'm not fuming at him, but the absolute worst thing he could do this offseason is force himself to settle for a mediocre QB situation because of the pressure of the rebrand and the dwindling fans.  There is zero point in this.  It gets us nowhere.  Suck it up for one more season if necessary, procure the ammo for next year and then take the huge swing that a strong QB class warrants.  

 

 

This is a great plan.

 

As long as the top picks in the draft are had by someone that doesn't need a QB so that we CAN trade in.

 

And then we still have to actually win the trade by having the best offer.

 

Or we could be bad enough to get the top pick in the draft.. But this team always finds a way to win just enough to get out of range of a QB. 

 

SO I don't have high hopes for this approach.

 

 

Edited February 7, 2022 by KDawg