The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[RWJ]

With the immense talent that CW has I hope he doesn't cry if his Pro Day is not what he expects it to be.  Just saying.  

[The Consigliere]

3 hours ago, Koolblue13 said:

With one of the greatest defenses ( I think the 91/92 Eagles D was better than the 85 Bears), HoF QB and WR and still couldn't win a SB.

I've never seen anything like the '85 bears defense, not the '00 ravens, '03 Bucs, or any after or before, maybe the '89 niners, but even they had a few ugly games (or was it '84?). The '85 Bears literally frightened players on the field ALL the time, the only guy it didnt frighten was Marino, so Marino and the Dolphins choking against the Patriots really screwed us out of a potentially great super bowl. 

But yeah, the '85 bears was easily the most frightening team I've ever seen, but I also caveat it, with something I think people undersell a lot when talking about dynasties, and great teams, namely, when did you do it, because sometimes, when you did it is very illustrating.

 

The Bears peaked exactly after the Great Niners/Cowboys/Redskins teams of the early eighties faded out, and after the great Raiders and Dolphins teams of the early eighties also faded out. It was basically a transition year, 1985:

Niners Down

Redskins Down

Cowboys Decline about to begin

AFC was totally crap

A year before the peak of the Giants era (Peak Giants was if I remember right, 1984-1990, but 1985, they weren't quite the monsters they'd be the next year). 

 

There are Super Bowls where you can tell this happened, 1985 is a year like that, 2000 when the Ravens smashed the Giants was also one. The AFC was transitioning to the Post Elway/Marino/Kelly period, and was weak, a year before Brady hit, and the Raiders and Ravens were the only great teams, in the NFC, the entire conference was largely dog----, so the Ravens dominating the league defensively was not a surprise. These kinds of years definitely happen, which sometimes illustrate why a title isn't as impressive as one might think. The Colts winning in '05 wasn't terribly impressive for instance, the NFC was weak, and the Patriots build had aged out. 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Est.1974 said:

Very clever 

And who might our RG3 2.0 be in 2024  @Redskin21502?

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

Good point.

 

 

What I found most interesting was  Warner's belief that despite the countless hours he's spent analyzing the all 22 film of Maye, and Daniels, they're still so close that he can't choose between them.

 

He needs to first be in a room with each of them independently; so that he can use video and the white board, to interrogate them about their thinking process on individual plays, before he can make a decision.

 

My bigger rhetorical question is:

If someone with Warner's experience, expertise, and knowledge, can't decide which qb he prefers, without first meeting with each of them, how can the talking heads on TV, or for that matter, any of us, make a conclusive determination with any confidence that we're correct?

 

 

.

 

Nobody can, the best we can do is sniff out busts, and find metric/analytic traits that "hits" share in common and that misses "lack", you can also create sim's like rotoviz just did, to come up with comps. I thought Curtis' approach was pretty lazy but his partner came up with a better one (the matches for Maye were somewhat exciting, especially compared to Williams and Daniels), but truth be told, tape grinders can't figure it out and neither can analytics types like me, even the S2 test, all the rage after Brock Purdy's performance in '22, was flushed down the toilet and not even mentioned after Stroud was horrible on it, and then one of the best rookies ever last fall. We just don't know, but I think some of us are actually half way decent at sniffing out warning signs suggestive of likely failure, that's the best I've seen anyone do. Sniff out likely failures. 

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

I have a pretty good history of QB analysis on here. It was close to perfect until Howell fell off a cliff right after I declared him the QB of the future 😞

[CommanderInTheRye]

10 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I have a pretty good history of QB analysis on here. It was close to perfect until Howell fell off a cliff right after I declared him the QB of the future 😞

 

Hold fast.

 

While we made the right decision in trading him, it remains to be seen whether or not the book on Howell is complete, or if there's a second act of consequence yet to be written.

 

Edited March 20 by CommanderInTheRye

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

42 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

Hold fast.

 

While we made the right decision in trading him, it remains to be seen whether or not the book on Howell is complete, or if there's a second act of consequence yet to be written.

 

True dat. I think it's safe to say that my prediction of him retiring as our all time passing leader isn't going to work out though.

[Koolblue13]

58 minutes ago, Sacks 'n' Stuff said:

I have a pretty good history of QB analysis on here. It was close to perfect until Howell fell off a cliff right after I declared him the QB of the future 😞

I predicted drafting Cousins and knew he'd be our starter.

 

*He whispers under his breath for the 1,000 time pretending it makes him right about every draft pick*

[The Consigliere]

52 minutes ago, CommanderInTheRye said:

 

Hold fast.

 

While we made the right decision in trading him, it remains to be seen whether or not the book on Howell is complete, or if there's a second act of consequence yet to be written.

 

Currently I'd put my bet on him becoming a league average starter over time, with the worst case scenario, a premium backup with low end starter ability like Minchew. He's the most successful QB out of the '22 class and I'd bet on him becoming a top 15-22 caliber QB going forward, but, he's got to beat out Geno Smith, whose staked out similar territory when used as a starter. 

[Warhead36]

Damn Caleb is kinda small. Not even 6'1''.

Edited March 20 by Warhead36

[clskinsfan]

Chase Daniel breaks down Maye. Says his comp is Phillip Rivers. Loves his athleticism. One of the first breakdowns to talk about how poor his WR's and OL really were. Says he is very raw. Which we would expect from a 21 year old with two years of college starting experience. Says his ability to roll left and throw is elite. Reads his progressions well when given time to do it. Deep ball accuracy is elite. Thinks NFL formations will help him. Everything is there but experience he says. WIll be dangerous in the NFL with the right coaching staff. 

 

[Warhead36]

Rivers with more mobility/athleticism is my comp for Maye as well.

[Skinsinparadise]

Bears even have Keenan Allen on the ruse

 

 

 

[RWJ]

N/M

 

 

 

 

Edited March 20 by RWJ

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

Youre gonna want to delete that

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Bears even have Keenan Allen on the ruse

 

 

 

LOL. Yeah. Nothing obvious about who the pick is going to be at all.

[actorguy1]

Only source for live coverage of USC pro day is NFL+ 

Anyone else got a source?

[clskinsfan]

Just now, actorguy1 said:

Only source for live coverage of USC pro day is NFL+ 

Anyone else got a source?

Nope. They are shutting down Youtube channels as fast as they come up. It will reair tonight at 8 on NFLN. 

[WashingtonRedWolves]

I was told that it would be airing on NFL+ at 1:30PM ET. This is some bull****

 

NVM I got it

Edited March 20 by WashingtonRedWolves

[RWJ]

I SO hope that Chicago drafts CW.  

Edited March 20 by RWJ

[SoCalSkins]

2 minutes ago, WashingtonRedWolves said:

I was told that it would be airing on NFL+ at 1:30PM ET. This is some bull****

Probably not until Caleb’s dad gets the thumbs up from Magic to start the proceedings. It’s a power move to show who is in charge. 

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

LOL. Yeah. Nothing obvious about who the pick is going to be at all.

 

Bears just playing it to the hilt.

 

Sending their brass to pro days and bringing their new star WR along

New story about having Caleb come to to Chicago to do testing

Teasing their fans with all the stories of him being the guy

Getting every major national and local Bears reporter in on this too.

 

It's like the Seinfeld episode when George pushed it right to the limit about making up having a home at the Hamptons.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SoCalSkins]

So if Covid hadn’t happened, Chase might have been off the board and we might have drafted Herbert who one of the Marty’s liked. 
 

 

[Est.1974]

16 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Bears even have Keenan Allen on the ruse

 

 

 

He’s still looking for the Washington contingent after that short exchange with Allen….

[skinny21]

3 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Currently I'd put my bet on him becoming a league average starter over time, with the worst case scenario, a premium backup with low end starter ability like Minchew. He's the most successful QB out of the '22 class and I'd bet on him becoming a top 15-22 caliber QB going forward, but, he's got to beat out Geno Smith, whose staked out similar territory when used as a starter. 

Sort of building on this, my guess is that the next two years with Seattle will be like we envisioned his past two years would be - a year to get comfortable in the system and with the squad, and then get a chance to start in year two.  I think the main handicap he faced here was Ron changing offenses/coordinators going into his 2nd year, though you have to imagine a shaky oline and truly terrible defense messed with Howell quite a bit.

 

 

Going back to internet prognosticators/analysts, I think there are generally speaking 4 facets that matter - 1) analyzing stats/data points, 2) analyzing film, 3) learning/figuring out all of the more intangible stuff, and 4) making predictions.  These guys generally don’t have much insight to the intangibles, and that, combined with the inherent difficulty in “figuring out” the qb spot, makes their predictions mostly worthless (unless its a prediction as to who goes where, particularly once reports start emerging, but even that is fraught).  The benefit these types provide though, to us fans, is offering us more info to synthesize with what we’ve seen on tape or in the stats.  

 

In other words, I don’t think it makes sense to just push them into buckets like “they don’t know what they’re talking about” or “they’ve gotten plenty wrong” (though there are some lazy, clueless blowhards out there obviously).  To be fair though, all of these guys are in it for the clicks.  It’s incumbent on us to parse who’s putting out content they (the “experts”) believe in - the ones that are putting the work in vs the guys just shooting for a juicy tagline.  JMO obviously.