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RichmondRedskin88

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May be an image of map and text that says "NORA All Disturbances Five-Day Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook National Hurricane Center Miami, Florida WEATHE hurricanes. gov IDA 45N JULIAN 35N TEN 2:00 am EDT Mon Aug 30 2021 100W 90W 50W 40W Current Disturbances and Five-Day Cyclone Formation Chance: x < 40% Tropical or Sub- -Tropical Cyclone: o Depression Storm Post-Tropical Cyclone or Remnants 5N 30W × 40-60% Hurricane 20W 60%"

 

Looks like I've got one coming my way and the track is extremely conducive for development. A little too early in the season for them to be rolling off Africa so far south. There are already two right behind this one, too. Guessing I'm getting my ass kicked again this season.

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1 minute ago, Koolblue13 said:

Hope you're right and the forcasters are wrong, but it's not following 10.

What forecasters? The forecast only shows where it might form not where it will go afterwards.

 

check tropicaltidbits.com 

 

ECMWF, CMC, GFS all show a recurve in the long range. Not that that sill happen 7-10 days out but that’s what it shows.

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1 minute ago, CousinsCowgirl84 said:

What forecasters? The forecast only shows where it might form not where it will go afterwards.

 

check tropicaltidbits.com 

 

ECMWF, CMC, GFS all show a recurve in the long range. Not that that sill happen 7-10 days out but that’s what it shows.

There's a bunch of stuff I follow. Living in the caribbean keeps you on your toes. We'll see.

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5 hours ago, TryTheBeal! said:

It would seem, at least for the city of New Orleans, that the levees held.  Thank heavens for that small miracle.


One did overflow and they had to tell people to leave and head for high ground during the storm because the area would flood but yeah it seems most held.   I don’t know though that was a 4 and it would seem with global warming (The gulf is 85 degrees. That’s crazy.) and hurricanes getting stronger that areas like NO and South FL as well as other places on the gulf are just playing a game of frogger that seems to be inevitably going to end bad.  I mean how many times can you test Mother Nature no matter how many walls, pumps, etc you put up?  Honestly I wonder how VA and MD have been so lucky.  We’re not prepared for a category 4 heck even a 3 if it came this way. 5 well everybody better be running.

Edited by RichmondRedskin88
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Don’t think it’s possible for a hurricane of Cat3-5 to make it up here to the DMV, there probably aren’t enough sources of energy to sustain a hurricane all the way up to us at that level of intensity. But even residual aftermaths of hurricanes are probably bad for this area.

Edited by No Excuses
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Ida Updates: The Latest on Damage, Power Outages and Other News

 

Hurricane Ida's catastrophic crawl across Louisiana inundated miles of roadways and neighborhoods, ripped apart buildings and trapped hundreds of residents who can't call 911 because service has been knocked out and cannot be rescued because conditions are still too treacherous to reach them.

 

More than 1 million customers in Louisiana alone were without power, including all of New Orleans, where catastrophic damage occurred to the city's transformers.

 

Below, we're updating this page with the latest information as it comes in so check back frequently for the most recent updates.

 

Click on the link for more

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Will Ida affect gas supply and prices?

 

Hurricane Ida Shuts Down More Than 90% of Oil and Gas Production in the Gulf of Mexico

 

As if reversing the course of the Mississippi River, forcing hospitals to hunker down with patients that couldn’t be moved, and nearly shutting off the power and internet in New Orleans wasn’t enough, Hurricane Ida has also disrupted oil and gas production.

 

The Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement on Sunday said that 95.6% of current oil production and 93.7% of the gas production in the Gulf of Mexico had been shut down in response to Hurricane Ida, which made landfall as a powerful Category 4 storm in Louisiana. Offshore Gulf operators had to evacuate personnel due to Ida and as of Sunday had moved workers off 288 production platforms, or 51.4% of manned platforms in the area, and 11 rigs, or 100% structures in the area.

 

In addition, the BSEE reported that 10 dynamically positioned rigs—which are not moored to the seafloor and can change locations in a relatively short period of time—had moved out of the storm’s projected path. They represent 66.7% of the total dynamically positioned rigs in the Gulf of Mexico.

 

A hurricane making landfall in this area is the one of the worst things that could happen to the oil industry, experts told CNN, and could impact the pipelines that ferry fuel to the East Coast. Andy Lipow, president of the Houston-based consulting firm Lipow Oil Associates, told the outlet that six refineries in New Orleans are currently shut down. These refineries—which include PBF, Phillips, Shell, Marathon, and two Valero refineries—produce 1.7 million barrels per day, or 9% of the country’s total.

 

Click on the link for the full article

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35 minutes ago, No Excuses said:

Don’t think it’s possible for a hurricane of Cat3-5 to make it up here to the DMV, there probably aren’t enough sources of energy to sustain a hurricane all the way up to us at that level of intensity. But even residual aftermaths of hurricanes are probably bad for this area.

New York area has been crushed a few times because they couldn’t handle the smaller storms. Va beach area also has been crushed (not like New Orleans obviously…) but we went weeks w/o power and it was real bad one year. 
 

we’re sort of naturally protected. Based on years of watching hurricanes, and no real expertise, it seems like there’s a 99% chance it lands in the Carolinas (or va beach today worst), or it skips by us to the north. 
 

seems pretty low chance it would come up the bay and land in dc or the surrounding area. 
 

but we can’t handle the rain. It causes problems. Just don’t think storm surge wil ever be an issue…

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3 hours ago, RichmondRedskin88 said:


One did overflow and they had to tell people to leave and head for high ground during the storm because the area would flood but yeah it seems most held.   I don’t know though that was a 4 and it would seem with global warming (The gulf is 85 degrees. That’s crazy.) and hurricanes getting stronger that areas like NO and South FL as well as other places on the gulf are just playing a game of flogger that seems to be inevitably going to end bad.  I mean how many times can you test Mother Nature no matter how many walls, pumps, etc you put up?  Honestly I wonder how VA and MD have been so lucky.  We’re not prepared for a category 4 heck even a 3 if it came this way. 5 well everybody better be running.

I live in Virginia Beach.  It would beyound devistate us.  It would be horrific.  Yes, I would head to WV immediately.  We are not prepared for that, at all, and we need to be going forward.

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1 hour ago, Riggo'sRangers said:

I live in Virginia Beach.  It would beyound devistate us.  It would be horrific.  Yes, I would head to WV immediately.  We are not prepared for that, at all, and we need to be going forward.


Gaston wrecked Richmond with the flooding.  You had cars floating down the street.  Entire buildings vanished under water.  Now given that led to the flood wall being built but the city is very susceptible to major flooding even without the river involved.  I think Central VA is just very low lying in general. I mean in theory if say a 3-4 hit VA beach that’s crushing the eastern shore too.  Central VA and Williamsburg would probably get about the same without the surge of course.  I mean if we were thinking horrible scenarios if it came up the Chesapeake mouth that would be just catastrophic(That bay is quite warm so I don’t think it would do much to throw it off.).  VA beach would get crushed and then all the little towns/suburbs on either side would be wiped by the surge and winds. Hampton and Newport News would be trashed (Imagine the tunnels.) Richmond would take a head on collision so all the areas which are more run down or not structurally sound are gone. The flooding would be awful.  When you think about we’re quite lucky that the Carolinas take our hits. 

Edited by RichmondRedskin88
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Yeah I was in Newport News when whatever it was hit in 2003. Power was out for weeks. Water wasn’t drinkable for large areas for weeks. Because it was that area, there were a lot that didn’t evacuate. And I don’t recall deaths being an issue, but people obviously didn’t realize they’d have to live without drinkable water and power for multiple weeks. 
 

Our college parties were by candle light for a week or so. 

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I remember Hurricane Agnes. We were returning to DC from a youth beach trip (about 30 of us). It was in the evening and we were approaching the beltway exit at Rockville Pike on the outer loop. Up ahead we could make out people standing in the middle of the beltway. As we got closer, we saw it was people standing on their cars which were in 4-5 feet of water. Nothing we could do as we got off the exit safely. Worst rain & wind I've ever experienced. No idea how we made it home. 

 

Agnes, 1972: While not a hurricane when it reached the DMV, it was one of the most destructive and memorable storms in our region's history. 10 to 14 inches of rain fell over the DMV in late June of 1972. The storm cost over $2 billion worth of damage in the U.S. Additionally, 13 people were killed in Virginia, and 19 died in Maryland.

 

https://www.wusa9.com/article/weather/every-hurricane-to-ever-hit-dc-maryland-virginia/65-14f8191d-9eb6-4e30-9d6a-f45307f44df4

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Maybe it was 2004. Memory is quirky. 
 

they have these giant retention ditches everywhere because drainage sucks in the Norfolk/Hampton roads/va beach/ Newport News area

 

and I know they are retention ponds now because, well, duh. 
 

but. When I was 18. And the entire city was jacked. And we were under mandatory evac orders from the university. And there was immense rainfall. These retention ditches turned into swimming pools for me and all my dumb and fun friends. 
 

 

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Man attacked by alligator in flooded Louisiana waters after Hurricane Ida

 

Hurricane Ida has destroyed homes, left millions without power and killed at least two people. But perhaps most ominous, it's brought danger in the water that's flooding into communities. 

 

b6c939e851b3a91888fc10ae46923aa9

 

Officials say a man was attacked by an alligator in some of those flooded Louisiana waters Monday. The man's wife witnessed the attack that happened near the city of Slidell, which is just across Lake Pontchartrain from New Orleans, Jason Gaubert, a spokesman for the St. Tammany Fire District No. 1, told USA TODAY. 

 

Gaubert said the attack took the man's arm off and his wife went to call for help. When she returned, he had disappeared in the flood waters. The man's body hasn't been recovered and officials were investigating. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

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5 hours ago, China said:

Man attacked by alligator in flooded Louisiana waters after Hurricane Ida

 

Hurricane Ida has destroyed homes, left millions without power and killed at least two people. But perhaps most ominous, it's brought danger in the water that's flooding into communities. 

 

b6c939e851b3a91888fc10ae46923aa9

 

Officials say a man was attacked by an alligator in some of those flooded Louisiana waters Monday. The man's wife witnessed the attack that happened near the city of Slidell, which is just across Lake Pontchartrain from New Orleans, Jason Gaubert, a spokesman for the St. Tammany Fire District No. 1, told USA TODAY. 

 

Gaubert said the attack took the man's arm off and his wife went to call for help. When she returned, he had disappeared in the flood waters. The man's body hasn't been recovered and officials were investigating. 

 

Click on the link for the full article

 

 

So many questions

 

- Gators attacks on people are rare.  Like only one death ever in LA due to gator and that was like someone provoked it.  That’s so strange for one to attack people.  I’ve kayaked next to them.  They bump up against your kayak like hey what’s up got any food?  People literally feed them marshmallows and such. You can make them jump out of the water dolphins style honestly.

 

-  If your husband got his arm ripped off why would you leave him in the water to get help?  Wouldn’t you find somewhere to atleast have him lay above the water?  I mean leaving a person bleeding from their arm in water full of gators seems like a terrible idea.  Like sharks to blood terrible. 

 

Edited by RichmondRedskin88
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23 hours ago, tshile said:

Maybe it was 2004. Memory is quirky. 
 

they have these giant retention ditches everywhere because drainage sucks in the Norfolk/Hampton roads/va beach/ Newport News area

 

and I know they are retention ponds now because, well, duh. 
 

but. When I was 18. And the entire city was jacked. And we were under mandatory evac orders from the university. And there was immense rainfall. These retention ditches turned into swimming pools for me and all my dumb and fun friends. 
 

 

You're most likely referring to Isabel in 2003.  We were without power for a solid 10 days, and missed two weeks of school my senior year that fall.  Luckily like it has been stated earlier in this thread, Hampton Roads is pretty well protected from taking a direct shot from a massive hurricane because of the Outer Banks and the water temperature in the Atlantic Ocean isn't nearly what it is in the Gulf of Mexico.  Hopefully Ida isn't the start of a terrible hurricane season for the next 6-8 weeks.

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