2022 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I just ran about 20 simulations and Olave is gone between 10 and 22 in almost every one. I played through one of the double-trade back scenarios and still liked what I got. It's hard to trade back more than once since it seems so unlikely to unfold on draft day, but in this scenario I traded 11 to Minnesota for 13 and then down to 25. Ended up with this ...

 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Here's one where I traded down once and still had access to Olave ...

 

[Est.1974]

Myself and @skinny21think Del Rio, who is attending the PITT pro day, may well be there to watch Damarri Mathis, slot CB option. Runs sub 4.40. Very physical.

[Inigo Montoya]

I've used this one at PFF and PFN, Hopefully the chance for a 3-10 pick drop presents itself, I regularly get the option at a WR in Round 1 and Muma in Round2. I've been trying to leave with one of 3-4 different RBs, either Purdy or Zappe at QB and it was a plus to leave with a good G prospect, I end up with Parham after trading back a lot. 

 

[Inigo Montoya]

•  
  18.
  Drake London

  WR USC
   
•  
  46.
  Desmond Ridder

  QB Cincinnati
   
•  
  47.
  Christian Harris

  LB Alabama
   
•  
  76.
  Jalen Wydermyer

  TE Texas A&M
   
• 79.
• Rachaad White
• RB Arizona State

  189.
• Thayer Munford

  OG Ohio State

  230.
•  
  Logan Bruss

  OT Wisconsin

  240

  Eyioma Uwazurike
• DT Iowa State
   
• 2023 NO 4th

Edited March 21, 2022 by Inigo Montoya

[KDawg]

You'd have to do a lot of convincing for me to think trading back is a viable option. A lot.

[Koolblue13]

Hamilton looks like an Ed Reed/Brian Dawkins type of game influencer. Easily my top get. If he's not there, I'd slide back a bit. 

[Commander_N_Chief]

15 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You'd have to do a lot of convincing for me to think trading back is a viable option. A lot.

You and I are opposite on this one...you'd have a hard time convincing me based on our needs and what this draft has, hat we should stay put.

11 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Hamilton looks like an Ed Reed/Brian Dawkins type of game influencer. Easily my top get. If he's not there, I'd slide back a bit. 

Hamilton looks good but I've watched enough tape to see he's beatable in man.  I'd have rather drafter Reed or Dawkins coming out(not accounting their pro careers).

[KDawg]

1 minute ago, Commander_N_Chief said:

You and I are opposite on this one...you'd have a hard time convincing me based on our needs and what this draft has, hat we should stay put.

 

 

I don't believe drafting in the first should ever be strictly based on need.

 

Further, I think what we need has some high end talent at 11 that may not be available later.

 

Third, a small caveat to my stance is just how far back we go. Not interested in falling into the 20s.

[Est.1974]

If we stay at #11 then we’ll be backing out from #47. No chance we go through the draft without a 3rd and 5th.

 

[Warhead36]

My realistic dream scenario is trade down with the Saints and pick up their 2nd and 4th or something along those lines. At 18 we get Olave and with our two 2nds we get a LB and some OL depth or one of the two stud RBs.

[KDawg]

3 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

If we stay at #11 then we’ll be backing out from #47. No chance we go through the draft without a 3rd and 5th.

 

I’d be more inclined to go with this.

 

Or trading someone for picks.

[PlayAction]

33 minutes ago, KDawg said:

You'd have to do a lot of convincing for me to think trading back is a viable option. A lot.

The early analysis from the league was that the number of top end talent players was limited but that the draft was deep in starter quality players.  Do you agree?  How many players are in the top tier?  If the number of top tier players is exhausted before the Commanders pick, I don't see why anyone would trade up with us.  If another team wants a particular QB then they might trade up one slot before the Commanders.  If we aren't in the market for a first round QB then other teams leaping ahead might improve a trade down scenario.  But we would still be looking at only a few top end players left and that limits the number of teams willing to pay the price for a trade up.    

[Redskins 2021]

It looks like are draft pick my be alittle more valuable with car and atl needing a Qb now. Problem now is a great player will probably drop to us. Do we pick him or trade down?

[KDawg]

5 minutes ago, PlayAction said:

The early analysis from the league was that the number of top end talent players was limited but that the draft was deep in starter quality players.  Do you agree?  How many players are in the top tier?  If the number of top tier players is exhausted before the Commanders pick, I don't see why anyone would trade up with us.  If another team wants a particular QB then they might trade up one slot before the Commanders.  If we aren't in the market for a first round QB then other teams leaping ahead might improve a trade down scenario.  But we would still be looking at only a few top end players left and that limits the number of teams willing to pay the price for a trade up.    

 

I think Hamilton, a WR out of London (my pick)/Williams/Wilson, Jordan Davis are all game changers.

 

If we get to 11 and no one we like is on the board... fine. But planning to trade ahead of the draft is a big time mistake that bad franchises make. Having a trade plan is a good idea. Doing it before we see the board is not. 

[Redskins 2021]

If two Qb go top 10 we will either get a great prospect or will be able to move down for more picks.

 

 

Edited March 21, 2022 by Redskins 2021

[Inigo Montoya]

 

My perfect scenario for staying put and accepting no trades just played out... out of I can't tell you how many simulation though this almost never happens 

[KDawg]

Just now, Redskins 2021 said:

If two Qb go top 10 we will either get a great prospect or will be able to move down.

 

You don't pass on a game changing prospect. Even if you draft 8 slots later you are missing out on a good amount of them, if not all of them.

 

Imagine you have:

 

Williams

Davis

London

Wilson

Lloyd

Hamilton

Stingley

Sauce

KThib

 

As your top prospects (this is an example... it's semi close to what I think but not complete)

 

That is 9 prospects. We are at pick 11.

 

You get to 11, 5 are left. You trade back to 18.

 

There's a damn good chance those 5 are gone. Now what? Trade back for the sake of it? Get more middle rounders that have a lower overall hit rate?

 

Or stay at 11 and take a game changer?

 

I think 11 is a dangerous spot to trade back too far. I think you're better trading #2, #3, #4, #5 with shorter drops to the low teens than you are trading 11 to 20. 

 

There is still high end talent likely available. As you get in the 20s there is certainly talent, but its riskier and not necessarily game changing. Though, if you get lucky, scout well and make the most of it you could hit there.

 

I don't rule it out. I just don't want to mess with fate. 

[Redskins 2021]

2 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

You don't pass on a game changing prospect. Even if you draft 8 slots later you are missing out on a good amount of them, if not all of them.

 

Imagine you have:

 

Williams

Davis

London

Wilson

Lloyd

Hamilton

Stingley

Sauce

KThib

 

As your top prospects (this is an example... it's semi close to what I think but not complete)

 

That is 9 prospects. We are at pick 11.

 

You get to 11, 5 are left. You trade back to 18.

 

There's a damn good chance those 5 are gone. Now what? Trade back for the sake of it? Get more middle rounders that have a lower overall hit rate?

 

Or stay at 11 and take a game changer?

 

I think 11 is a dangerous spot to trade back too far. I think you're better trading #2, #3, #4, #5 with shorter drops to the low teens than you are trading 11 to 20. 

 

There is still high end talent likely available. As you get in the 20s there is certainly talent, but its riskier and not necessarily game changing. Though, if you get lucky, scout well and make the most of it you could hit there.

 

I don't rule it out. I just don't want to mess with fate. 

 I agree you can't tell anything till you see board on draft day. If I had to bet I think one of the cb or Hamilton will be there. You would really have to consider picking them there.

 

I can't see 3 Qb going in top 10 although Seattle liked the old Miss Qb.

[Ball Security]

How far does Ojabo fall after tearing his Achilles? Horrible for him.

 

Rooting for as many DEs to go in the top 10.

 

Ideally, 2QBs, 3 OL (maybe 4 with Lindebaum), and 4 DLs go in the top 10.

[seantaylor=god]

https://www.commanders.com/news/mock-draft-monday-here-s-who-nate-davis-has-washington-taking-in-the-first-round?fbclid=IwAR3FuxATC-KnC_JvitmKdZQ-IUzAo1-KBYb7phcs2lKUzG1RhZpYqcEN6VA
 

Mock draft has us taking London at 11. If it fell that way I’d prefer Stingley.

[Commander_N_Chief]

58 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I don't believe drafting in the first should ever be strictly based on need.

 

Further, I think what we need has some high end talent at 11 that may not be available later.

 

Third, a small caveat to my stance is just how far back we go. Not interested in falling into the 20s.

I don't necessarily believe drafting for need is important either, and would say I lean best player available.  To me this draft is stacked with talent at multiple positions but there's not much difference IMHO between who you could get at 11 or 20-25(obviously this is assuming someone from top 4-6 slip).  Its one of the great things about the draft, different opinions...example: if I can get Olave between 19-25 like most mocks seem to have him...I'm doing it every time 🤷‍♂️.

[Going Commando]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

You'd have to do a lot of convincing for me to think trading back is a viable option. A lot.

 

The only way I would be OK dropping down into the 20s is if it got us a pick in the 30s or early 40s.  Then you can scheme up a scenario where you get Nakobe Dean with that 20s pick, stud WR with that 30s pick, and someone like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker with 47.  IMO that would be a really high end three man class with multiple prospects who could become difference makers.

 

Otherwise, I don't think it'd be worth it to lose out on the much safer bet we'll get at 11.

[KDawg]

14 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

 

The only way I would be OK dropping down into the 20s is if it got us a pick in the 30s or early 40s.  Then you can scheme up a scenario where you get Nakobe Dean with that 20s pick, stud WR with that 30s pick, and someone like Breece Hall or Kenneth Walker with 47.  IMO that would be a really high end three man class with multiple prospects who could become difference makers.

 

Otherwise, I don't think it'd be worth it to lose out on the much safer bet we'll get at 11.

And the odds of that happening are low.

 

I agree that would be a fantastic haul for sure. And I know you know how low the odds are for that scenario.

 

But yes, that’s a scenario I’d be good with. 
 

I just don’t understand passing on game changers to get more good but not great (this part isn’t in reference to your post).

 

We have so many glue guys. Let’s get some guys who change the game.

[Warhead36]

With the Saints resigning Winston its unlikely they'd move up now for a QB. Bummer as I thought they were a prime trade partner at #18. 

 

My guess is we stay at 11 and draft the best WR available who will probably be either the first or second receiver taken.