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2024 ES GM's Mock Draft....


COWBOY-KILLA-

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I missed on Karl Brooks badly. I clearly valued his incredible productivity more than the NFL did. I picked him int he second. Went in the 6th. I also missed on Andre Carter. But that is more about his military service than anything else. Overall I am happy with my drafts though.

 

My biggest hits were DJ Johnson who I took in the 6th (210) and went 80 overall and AIden Oconnell who went 135 and I drafted at 218.

Edited by clskinsfan
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TENNESSEE TITANS 2023

ES PICK

ACTUAL

 

JAXON SMITH-NJIGBA

11

20

-9

LUKE SCHOONMAKER

58

58

0

JOE TIPPMAN

72

43

29

BLAKE FREELAND

90

106

-16

MICHAEL WILSON

147

94

53

KENDRE MILLER

186

71

115

JOSE RAMIREZ

228

196

32

     

204

       
       

NEW YORK GIANTS 2023

ES PICK

ACTUAL

 

DREW SANDERS

25

67

-42

TYRIQUE STEVENSON

57

56

1

TYLER SCOTT

89

133

-44

DONTAYVION WICKS

160

159

1

ZACH EVANS

172

215

-43

JUICE SCRUGGS

182

62

120

CLAYTON TUNE

189

139

50

ANTONI MAFI

209

144

65

BJ THOMPSON

240

166

74

JORDAN HOWDEN

254

146

108

*UFDA MATT LANDERS

   

290

*UFDA MEKHI GARNER

     

 

Pleased with my results overall. Drew Sanders, Tyler Scott and Zach Evans dropping as far as they did really surprised me. My two players who went undrafted are WR Matt Landers Seahawks and CB Mekhi Garner Eagles - both of these surprised me too especially Garner. 

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The numbers show what I suspected, I did OK witrh Arizona's picks but not so great with Atlanta. 


For Arizona, I only picked 2 players early, but they were way early. Duncan 120 spots early and Skinner 87. Everyone else got picked earlier in the real draft than i took them including some later rd picks. Overall it's pretty close to flat. Also, Arizona made some trades in the real draft but not even one person inquired about #3. Next time I have a high draft pick I am going to make some boise about taking players I know others covet LOL. I am surprised no one wanted Will Anderson. Dude is a freak. I am good with the pick. I got Kobie Turner much later than IRL. He has a real high ceiling IMO. 

 

Atlanta, well the bright spotss are I took the exact player they took in the 2nd in Matthew Bergeron only 6 spots later than they did. I also got Tyler Lacy who is a tweener DL but could really blossom in the right system in the 7th where he went in the 43th IRL. He was BPA pick for me in the 7th. The rest I all appearently reached for, some really bad like Kayshon Boutte who I even traded up a few spots for to take at #70 overall who did not get picked till the 6th rd @187 overall. Roy was another big reach. I will say draft capitol wise Murphy hurt me but once you get past the top 1 or 2 at a position, I relaly think the degrees of seperation are not that much. I liked Murphy and may still be proven correct. They still have to play. 

 

On a side note I only had one player not drafted at all in Gemon Green. He was 7th rd flyer who at best would provide CB depth and possibly a KR/PR. Not stressing over him not getting drafted. He was signed by NY Giants as an URFA so I didn't miss him by far. 

 

This is one of the most fun exercises each year. I like the draft but this gives it a whole new level of interest. Thanks to eveyone who participated. We are settlling into a truly awesome group of guys. Already looking forward to next year! 

 

image.png.597f8c553906cfcecd3039365b02f64c.png

 

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You guys need to subtract any UDFA's from your overall score, wink wink ahem.......

 

The Commanders scored a resounding + 324 we kicked some butt..

 

Witherspoon +11

Mauch -1

Henley +12

Spears + 37

McGuire + 27

Warren +73

Strange +135

Richards +46

Johnson Jr. -9

Knowles UDFA -7 

 

Edited by COWBOY-KILLA-
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  • Jumbo unpinned this topic

I've done the very basic analysis of my draft with the draft value chart, and here are the results:

Coming into the draft, I had: 15, 45, 78, 116, 149, 159, 232, 235, 242, 256

Total draft value coming in: 1823.2


I traded out of the 4th round to load up on 5th round picks: 116, 242, 256 for 155, 158, 170

Draft value after trades: 1834.2

 

How my picks did:

15th (1050): TE Michael Mayer 35th (550) -500
45th (450): EDGE Will McDonald IV 15th (1050) +600

78th (200): WR Rashee Rice 55th (350) +150

149 (30.6): S Ronnie Hickman Undrafted (0) -30.6

155 (28.2): DL Byron Young 'Bama 70th (240) +211.8

158 (27): QB Tanner McKee 188th (14.6) -12.4

164 (24.6): LB Owen Pappoe 168th (23) -1.6

170 (21.8) DL Moro Ojomo 249th (1) -20.8

232 (1) K Chad Ryland 112th (70) +69 (nice)

235 (1) WR Ronnie Bell 253rd (1) +0

Total value: 2299.6, a net gain of +465.4

 

For comparison, after trading Aaron Rodgers, and then their own subsequent trade-backs, the real Packers wound up with a total draft value for their picks at 2378.4 points.  Given I had no benefit of trading Rodgers, I think I did pretty well to close the draft value gap.

 

However, I have some questions about where that value came from.  I did think Will McDonald was great value where I drafted him, but 15 seems a bit high to me (and I'd know; I had that pick, and just like the Jets who took him, I watched Luke van Ness get taken at 13).  And top of the 4th round seems pretty high for a kicker.  The second kicker in the draft, even.  Though I really did like him, 4th is just really high for a kicker historically.  Who knows, maybe that's changing and teams are seeing more value in investing in them given how much stability the good ones bring as they stick around for 15 years or so.

 

On the other side of the spectrum, I don't know why Ojomo fell into the end of the 7th.  And Safety seemed to be under-drafted in general in the actual NFL draft.  There were a few guys I would have wanted ahead of Ronnie Hickman that in the real draft were available into the 6th and even 7th rounds, whereas some weren't even there for me in the 4th round before I traded out, much less the 5th round.

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  • 8 months later...

We have now officially hit the Off-Week before the Super Bowl.  I figure I'd take the opportunity to look back on drafts past and see how my picks turned out.  Normally you know where you stand after three years, but given who I took with my first pick in 2020, this is the year to give that draft class it's final report card.

Class of 2020:

1 30 30  Jordan Love    QB
2 30 62  Brandon Aiyuk  WR
3 30 94  Ben Bartch     OT
4 30 136 Marcus Bailey  LB
5 29 175 Keith Ishmael  OL
6 12 192 Josaih Coatney DL
6 28 208 Lamical Perine RB
6 29 209 Joe Bachie     LB
7 21 236 Jacob Knipp    QB
7 27 242 Rashod Berry   TE/DE

Nobodies:

  • Rashod Berry
  • Jacob Knipp
  • Josiah Coatney (2023 XFL Champion)
  • Keith Ishmael
  • La'Mical Perine

Still around:

  • Joe Bachie
    • Key Special Teams contributor for the Bengals when healthy, but torn ACL seems to have hurt his career
  • Marcus Bailey
    • Also key Special Teams contributor for the Bengals.  Backup Linebacker
  • Ben Bartch
    • Was a starting Guard for a little bit before an ACL injury sidelined his career.
    • Currently a backup for the 9ers on the way to the Super Bowl

Stars:

  • Brandon Aiyuk
    • Posted back-to-back 1000+ Rec. Yard seasons
    • 15 TDs over the past two seasons
    • Headed to the Super Bowl as a key contributor to the offense
  • Jordan Love
    • Looks like the Packers have once again found their man for the next 15 years
    • 2nd in the NFL in TDs
    • Unstoppable in the 2nd half of the season

Grade: :wub:

Summary:
Doesn't matter that most of my picks are out of the league (granted, half of them were in the 6th and 7th rounds), if you hit on a Franchise QB, especially as late as 30, your draft is a success.  That Brandon Aiyuk is a dangerous weapon at WR is icing on the cake.

 

Class of 2021:

2 10 40  Sam Cosmi                   OT
2 30 62  Tyson Campbell              CB
3 7  71  Alim McNeill                DL
4 9  114 Trey Hill                  IOL
4 30 135 Monty Rice                 ILB
4 37 142 Marquez Stevenson           WR
5 34 178 Rhomondre Stevenson         RB
6 30 214 T.J. Vasher                 WR
6 36 220 Drew Dalman                IOL
7 28 256 Adetokunbo Ogundeji       EDGE 

Nobodies:

  • T.J. Vasher
  • Marquez Stevenson

Hanging Around:

  • Trey Hill
    • Hanging on to a 53-man roster job as a healthy gameday inactive
    • 0 snaps from scrimmage in 2023

Still Around:

  • Monty Rice
    • 128 career tackles
    • Injured in 2022, started 2023 on PUP
      • Waived a couple months after activation
        • Claimed off Waivers by New Orleans

Notables:

  • Adetokunbo Ogundeji
    • Started 11 games as a rookie, 16 games in 2022
    • 75 tackles in two seasons
    • Lost entire 2023 season to injury.
  • Rhomondre Stevenson
    • Posted a 1,000+ yard rushing season in 2022
    • Career average 4.5 yards per carry
  • Tyson Campbell
    • Had an excellent Sophomore campaign
    • Regressed in year three after suffering injury

Studs:

  • Drew Dalman
    • Starting Center for the Falcons the past two seasons
    • Highest-rated run-blocking Center in 2023 according to PFF
  • Alim McNeill
    • 36 starts over 3 seasons
    • 5 sacks in 13 games in 2023
    • Among the top interior D-lineman in 2023 according to PFF
  • Sam Cosmi
    • Moved inside to Guard where he's flourished
    • I probably don't need to give any bullet points here; y'all know him better than I

Grade: 👍
A couple high-end starting interior O-linemen, a powerful two-gapping interior D-lineman to control the line of scrimmage, a bruising RB, a CB who's shown he can shut things down when healthy, and starting edge-rusher.  Pretty solid haul.

 

Class of 2022:

1 22 22  Jameson Williams   WR  
1 28 28  Bernhard Raimann   OL  
2 21 53  Christian Harris   LB
2 27 59  Drake Jackson    EDGE
3 28 92  Jalen Tolbert      WR     
4 27 132 Akayleb Evans      DB     
4 35 140 Tyquan Thornton    WR   
5 28 171 Cade Mays          OL  
7 7  228 Lucas Krull        TE
7 28 249 Tyrion Davis-Price RB
7 37 258 Cal Adomitis       LS

Still around:

  • Tyrion Davis-Price
    • 40 career rushes, 3.0 yards per carry
    • currently on 49ers practice squad
  • Lucas Krull
    • Spent time on Saints' and Broncos' practice squads and active rosters
    • 95 yards and 1 TD in 7 games
  • Tyquan Thornton
    • Dealt with some injuries so far in his career
    • Even when healthy, has been subject to healthy scratches
    • 338 yards in 22 career games
  • Jalen Tolbert
    • 280 yards and 24 receptions in 25 career games
    • An afterthought in the Cowboys' receiving game; 6th in targets, receptions, and yards this season despite playing  every game

Notables:

  • Cal Adomitis
    • Bengals Long-snapper past two seasons
    • Not sure how to grade an LS, but I'm gonna work under the theory that extra point percentage is the stat I can best correlate with snapping performance
      • Bengals kicker Evan McPherson hit 95% of extra points before Adomitis joined (McPherson's rookie year)
      • Hit 91% on Adomitis' first season as snapper (McPherson's sophomore year)
      • Hit 100% on Adomitis' second season.  Total between Adomitis' first two seasons is 95%, which seams to be right around the median
  • Cade Mays
    • 7 starts, including 5 last season.  Finger injury in penultimate game held him out of the season finale which he would have otherwise started
  • Akayleb Evans
    • Starting CB for the Vikings this season (missed a couple games to injury)
    • Forced 3 fumbles
    • 1 interception
    • Benched a few times this season, too
  • Drake Jackson
    • Rotational player on the 9ers defense
    • 3 sacks rookie year
    • 3 sacks in week 1 of 2023, but none in the next 7 before ending the season on IR
  • Jameson Williams
    • 1 catch for 41 yards rookie season (basically a red-shirt year recovering from a college injury)
    • Suspended 4 games 2023 for gambling on college football (who knew there was a rule against that?)
    • 354 yards and 24 receptions in 12 games in 2023

Studs:

  • Christian Harris
    • Starting LB for the Texans each of the past two seasons
    • 75 tackles in 12 games as a rookie, 101 tackles in 16 games last season
    • pick-six in the playoffs on Joe Flacco
  • Bernhard Raimann
    • Starting Left Tackle
    • Named to PFF all-improved team 2023
    • #7 ranked Tackle per PFF

Draft grade: :mellow:

Grabbed a starting Left Tackle, which is always a nice-to-have. Especially given Bakhtiari is still suffering from that injury in late 2020.

Beyond that, however, not a lot of top-end talent.  Cade Mays is good value as a first-off-the-bench IOL in the 6th.  Akayleb Evans is far from perfect, but he's a capable player for a 4th round pick.  And the 3 fumbles forced I think reinforces my original idea of him being a guy who could fill in at safety, which has been a position of need.  That may yet be in his future.  More was definitely expected from Jameson Williams.  Tolbert and Thornton haven't been factors at all.  Krull was a late-round flyer, and TEs can take time to develop, so he may yet earn his keep.  And as for Davis-Price, he was a very-late pick gamble, so whatever.  At least I didn't draft him in the 3rd round like the real 9ers did.

 

Edit: Somehow my brain glazed right over Christian Harris when doing the write-up.  Adding a successful 2nd round pick improves my opinion of this draft class.  New grade: :)

 

Draft class 2023:

1 15 15  Michael Mayer       TE
2 14 45  Will McDonald IV  EDGE
3 15 78  Rashee Rice         WR
5 14 149 Ronnie Hickman       S
5 20 155 Byron Young 'Bama   DL
5 23 158 Tanner McKee        QB
5 29 164 Owen Pappoe         LB
5 35 170 Moro Ojomo          DL
7 15 232 Chad Ryland          K
7 18 235 Ronnie Bell         WR

 

Around:

  • Ronnie Bell
    • Played sparingly in his rookie
    • Heading to the Super Bowl with the 49ers
  • Chad Ryland
    • Rough rookie season
    • 64% on fieldgoals on the season
      • Missed 50% in the 40-49 range as well as 50+
  • Moro Ojomo
    • Played sparingly in his rookie season
  • Tanner McKee
    • Backup QB behind an established starter; never got into a game
  • Byron Young ('Bama/Raiders)
    • 4 tackles in 6 games as a rookie

Notables:

  • Owen Pappoe
    • Played a lot of Special Teams in Arizona
    • Started in the season finale; could be positioned for a larger role on the defense next season
  • Ronnie Hickman
    • Started 4 of last 5 games as a rookie
    • 1 Pick-six
    • 45.5% completion rate in coverage, 44.9 QB Rating
    • Highest graded rookie on the Browns according to PFF
  • Will McDonald IV
    • Rotational player as a rookie
    • 3 sacks and 1 Forced Fumble averaging 18 snaps per game
  • Michael Mayer
    • 304 yards and 2 TDs in 12 starts
      • Only about 30 yards out of #3 on the team in receiving, despite missing the last three games of the season

Studs:

  • Rashee Rice
    • 938 receiving yards and 7 TDs as a rookie
      • Another 223 yards and a TD in 3 playoff games
    • Heading to the Super Bowl with the Chiefs

No grade for this draft class; way too soon, especially with how many 5th-7th picks I had.  I would like to take a moment to vindicate my selection of Ronnie Hickman in the 5th round, who wound up going undrafted in the NFL draft.

Edited by PokerPacker
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Eagles fan here. McKee had a great preseason (you won't see it if you just look at his passing stats without looking at the games) and gave the impression of being someone who could wind up being a decent backup in the league, with maybe an outside shot of starting at some point if he gets an opportunity. Ojomo played well in the preseason and made the team but was rarely active and didn't really look all that great when he did play. I think he might have stumbled his way into a sack once to get on the stat sheet. Hard to tell if he's going to be a versatile swing guy along the defensive line or if he's simply a "tweener" who isn't big or powerful enough inside and not fast or athletic enough outside.

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On 4/30/2023 at 10:18 AM, clskinsfan said:

I missed on Karl Brooks badly. I clearly valued his incredible productivity more than the NFL did. I picked him int he second. Went in the 6th.

If it's any consolation, the Packers have been quite pleased with his performance this season.  He had 4 sacks playing as a rotational lineman.  End of the 2nd round is still probably a bit early, but the arrow's pointing up.

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  • 1 month later...
Posted (edited)

Let’s start it this way before writing everyone.
 

Please share within this chat if you are in for the mock draft for the team or teams you had last year. Ty! 
 

We’d be looking to get started by around late March

 

i will follow this up with direct messages to those who have not responded. To those that did, this will qualify as your answer.

 

Thank You!

 

as of now we have 3 for the draft, 

myself, gallen, and sip.

 

I would ask a MOD if they can pin this at the top of the page please. 

Edited by COWBOY-KILLA-
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1 hour ago, COWBOY-KILLA- said:

Let’s start it this way before writing everyone.
 

Please share within this chat if you are in for the mock draft for the team or teams you had last year. Ty! 
 

We’d be looking to get started by around late March

 

i will follow this up with direct messages to those who have not responded. To those that did, this will qualify as your answer.

 

Thank You!

 

as of now we have 3 for the draft, 

myself, gallen, and sip.

 

I would ask a MOD if they can pin this at the top of the page please. 

I’ll do Vikings again 👍

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Y'all know who I'm drafting for.  Also the Jets cheated again this year by sitting Rodgers so I wouldn't get their 1st round pick.  Just like last year when they cheated by waiting until after our picks were set to trade for Rodgers.  Stupid cheating Jets.

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