DCSaints_fan Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 (edited) 13 hours ago, Hersh said: Wait, I saw the replay of the game winning hit. Assuming they walked Harper intentionally, are you really saying that was a bad strategy? Yes. There was two outs. Anything less than a home run by Harper and the game is at worst, still tied, with another chance to get out of the inning. Harper is also a pretty good baserunner which was a key reason why the running run was scored. And he wasn't exactly raking - no hits and two strikeouts in that game if my memory is right. Edited September 22, 2021 by DCSaints_fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 2 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said: Yes. There was two outs. Anything less than a home run by Harper and the game is at worst, still tied, with another chance to get out of the inning. Harper is also a pretty good baserunner which was a key reason why the running run was scored. And he wasn't exactly raking - no hits and two strikeouts in that game if my memory is right. you don’t give a teams best hitter a chance to drive in the tying run when there is an open base. The O’s should’ve walked JT as well to load the bases and pitch to the pitcher spot in the order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted September 22, 2021 Share Posted September 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Hersh said: you don’t give a teams best hitter a chance to drive in the tying run when there is an open base. The O’s should’ve walked JT as well to load the bases and pitch to the pitcher spot in the order. If they were going to walk Harper, it might have been a smarter play to walk Realmuto as well. However, I don't think they should have walked either. While Harper does bat much better against RHP (such as Valdez) I don't think the gap between him an Realmuto is as big that by giving him a free pass you increase the chance of a win. I need to work out all the probabilties and there's complications with errors and wild pitches/ passed balls but here's how I see decision tree breaking down1. Walk HarperRealmuto: A. (~65%) Out - probably based on his OBP against LHP of .348 WIN B. (~35%) bats safe: I. XBH - Harper almost certainly scores with any XBH as there are 2 outs LOSS II. Walk - loads bases Pinch Hitter (backup catcher I think) 1) Out - WIN 2) Bats safe A. Walk - ties game McCutchen I. Out - TIE II. Bats safe - LOSS B. Hit - almost certainly a LOSS III. Single - ties game, advances Harper to second, possibly third although that doesn't change much Pinch Hitter 1) Out - TIE 2) Bats safe 1. Walk (bases now loaded) McCutchen A. Out - TIE B. Bats safe - LOSS II. Hit - Harper almost certainly scores LOSS 2. Pitch to Harper A. (~55%) Out (given OBP against LHP or .445) B. (~45%) Bats safe I. Home run - LOSS II. Walk - ends up with scenario (1), so we'll discount this possibility III. Single - ties game Realmuto 1. Out - TIE 2. Bats safe A. Single/Walk (runners now at 1st and second) Pinch Hitter I. Out - TIE II. Walk (loads bases) McCutchen 1. Out - TIE 2. Bats safe - LOSS III. Hit - LOSS B. XBH - LOSS (basically what happened if Harper had walked as in scenario 1) IV. XBH - a 2B/3B are roughly equivalent here Realmuto 1. Out - TIE 2. Bats safe A. Hit/Walk (runners now at 1st and second or 1st/3rd, it probably doesn't matter) Pinch Hitter I. Out - TIE II. Walk (loads bases) McCutchen 1. Out - TIE 2. Bats safe - LOSS III. Hit - LOSS B. XBH - LOSS I'll have to go back and compute the probabilities based on OBP and XBH% Be slightly surprised if I'm wrong though ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Great example of what’s wrong with baseball. Do you really need analytics to give you the answer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinFanInMinn Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 Anyone know what the tiebreaker for the #1 pick is? Right now we have the exact same record as the DBacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 14 minutes ago, SkinFanInMinn said: Anyone know what the tiebreaker for the #1 pick is? Right now we have the exact same record as the DBacks. The tiebreaker is the previous year's record. But in 2020, the Orioles and DBacks had the same record! So I don't know! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCSaints_fan Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, SkinFanInMinn said: Anyone know what the tiebreaker for the #1 pick is? Right now we have the exact same record as the DBacks. Yea, it’s supposed to be last years record. However since they both had some record last year, you can’t be sure what they’ll do. With all the chatter about teams intentionally tanking for higher picks, I can very well see Manfred just giving our pick to Arizona on the justification we had the #1 pick in 2019, should we finish with the same record this year Edited September 23, 2021 by DCSaints_fan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted September 23, 2021 Share Posted September 23, 2021 2 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said: With all the chatter about teams intentionally tanking for higher picks, I can very well see Manfred just giving our pick to Arizona on the justification we had the #1 pick in 2019, should we finish with the same record this year That is absolutely something he’d do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ball Security Posted September 25, 2021 Share Posted September 25, 2021 Congratulations Mullins! 30-30. First individual no-hitter in my lifetime and first 30-30 in club history. Not bad for a 100+ loss season. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
capcrunch98 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 When it comes to playing spoiler, nothing beats the O's knocking out the blowhard Red Sox on the last day in 2011. But taking 2/3 this week was nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 31 minutes ago, capcrunch98 said: When it comes to playing spoiler, nothing beats the O's knocking out the blowhard Red Sox on the last day in 2011. But taking 2/3 this week was nice. The Orioles Twitter account changed their profile pic to Robert Andino. Quality trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rocky21 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 It’s looking like we’re getting the second pick in the draft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 3 hours ago, Rocky21 said: It’s looking like we’re getting the second pick in the draft Yea Arizona is a losing machine. It is what it is. But this squad learned a lot of things in the process of the year. Mullins had an amazing year (The best since Brady Anderson in the 90s). Means was great outside some bumps coming back off the IL. Mountcastle is a MOO bat. Hays and Urias are gonna be everyday guys for some time to come. The pitchers who held their own reasonably well in the 60 game mini-season sucked. That's the biggest disappointment of this season. Kremer, Akin, Lopez... stink, stank, stunk. Bullpen was much better in the short 2020 season as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted October 1, 2021 Share Posted October 1, 2021 As a Yankee diehard thanks os for taking care of the Sox. They're too busy eating rofo and drinking Natty Boh to play a game!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinFanInMinn Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 AZ came back and won. I believe that gives us the #1 pick. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 21 minutes ago, SkinFanInMinn said: AZ came back and won. I believe that gives us the #1 pick. I believe you are right. Congratulations to Elias on his tank job...again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted October 3, 2021 Share Posted October 3, 2021 Gotta thank Valdez and Co for the blown saves, Means’ shoulder injury that made him miss 10ish starts, and the cast of marginal starter rookies that all sucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted October 4, 2021 Share Posted October 4, 2021 The O's gave up 240 more earned runs than the next worst team in the division. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spaceman Spiff Posted October 4, 2021 Author Share Posted October 4, 2021 #1 pick is ours!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDoyler23 Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/01/orioles-changing-left-field-dimensions-at-camden-yards.html Orioles Changing Left-Field Dimensions At Camden Yards January 11th, 2022 at 6:11pm CST • By Mark Polishuk Construction has begun on the left field area at Oriole Park at Camden Yards, Nathan Ruiz of The Baltimore Sun reports, as the Orioles are looking to make their ballpark’s dimensions slightly more favorable towards pitchers. The stretch of the left field wall from the foul pole to the bullpen area in left-center field will be moved back roughly 30 feet, and also elevated to around 12 feet high from its current height of seven feet. (more in link) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 Those are pretty significant changes. Not sure I like it. ~Bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RemoveSnyder Posted February 27, 2022 Share Posted February 27, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fullnelson9999 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 A new perspective Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hersh Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 It's painful to see. I get why they did it, but it looks awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fullnelson9999 Posted March 9, 2022 Share Posted March 9, 2022 Really? I can hardly tell, and by next year it'll be so normalized, nobody will care. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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