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Extremeskins

The Plight of the 2021 Baltimore Orioles


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13 hours ago, Hersh said:

 

Wait, I saw the replay of the game winning hit. Assuming they walked Harper intentionally, are you really saying that was a bad strategy? 

 

Yes.  There was two outs.  Anything less than a home run by Harper and the game is at worst, still tied, with another chance to get out of the inning.   Harper is also a pretty good baserunner which was a key reason why the running run was scored.   And he wasn't exactly raking - no hits and two strikeouts in that game if my memory is right.

Edited by DCSaints_fan
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2 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

Yes.  There was two outs.  Anything less than a home run by Harper and the game is at worst, still tied, with another chance to get out of the inning.   Harper is also a pretty good baserunner which was a key reason why the running run was scored.   And he wasn't exactly raking - no hits and two strikeouts in that game if my memory is right.


you don’t give a teams best hitter a chance to drive in the tying run when there is an open base. The O’s should’ve walked JT  as well to load the bases and pitch to the pitcher spot in the order. 

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1 hour ago, Hersh said:

you don’t give a teams best hitter a chance to drive in the tying run when there is an open base. The O’s should’ve walked JT  as well to load the bases and pitch to the pitcher spot in the order. 

If they were going to walk Harper, it might have been a smarter play to walk Realmuto as well.  However, I don't think they should have walked either. 

While Harper does bat much better against RHP (such as Valdez)  I don't think the gap between him an Realmuto is as big that by giving him a free pass you increase the chance of a win. 

I need to work out all the probabilties and there's complications with errors and wild pitches/ passed balls but here's how I see decision tree breaking down

1. Walk Harper
Realmuto: 

A. (~65%) Out -  probably based on his OBP against LHP of .348  WIN

B. (~35%) bats safe:
    I.  XBH - Harper almost certainly scores with any XBH as there are 2 outs LOSS
    II. Walk - loads bases 

         Pinch Hitter (backup catcher I think)      
         1) Out - WIN
         2) Bats safe  
               A. Walk - ties game
                    McCutchen
                     I. Out - TIE

                     II. Bats safe - LOSS

              B. Hit  - almost certainly a LOSS

    III. Single - ties game, advances Harper to second, possibly third although that doesn't change much
         Pinch Hitter 
                1) Out - TIE

                2) Bats safe 
                       1. Walk (bases now loaded)

                             McCutchen

                             A.  Out - TIE

                             B.  Bats safe - LOSS

                        II. Hit  - Harper almost certainly scores LOSS

 

2. Pitch to Harper
A. (~55%) Out (given OBP against LHP or .445) 
B. (~45%) Bats safe
      I. Home run -  LOSS
      II. Walk - ends up with scenario (1), so we'll discount this possibility
      III. Single - ties game 
           Realmuto
            1. Out - TIE 

             2. Bats safe

                  A. Single/Walk (runners now at 1st and second)

                       Pinch Hitter 

                       I.   Out  - TIE

                       II.  Walk (loads bases)

                               McCutchen

                               1. Out - TIE

                               2. Bats safe - LOSS

                       III.  Hit  - LOSS

                  B. XBH - LOSS (basically what happened if Harper had walked as in scenario 1)

      IV. XBH - a 2B/3B are roughly equivalent here

           Realmuto

            1. Out - TIE 

            2. Bats safe 

                  A. Hit/Walk (runners now at 1st and second or 1st/3rd, it probably doesn't matter)

                       Pinch Hitter 

                       I.   Out  - TIE

                       II.  Walk (loads bases)

                               McCutchen

                               1. Out - TIE

                               2. Bats safe - LOSS

                       III.  Hit  - LOSS 

                  B. XBH - LOSS 

 

I'll have to go back and compute the probabilities based on OBP and XBH%   Be slightly surprised if I'm wrong though ... 

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14 minutes ago, SkinFanInMinn said:

Anyone know what the tiebreaker for the #1 pick is?  Right now we have the exact same record as the DBacks.

 

 The tiebreaker is the previous year's record. But in 2020,  the Orioles and DBacks had the same record!

 

So I don't know! 

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1 hour ago, SkinFanInMinn said:

Anyone know what the tiebreaker for the #1 pick is?  Right now we have the exact same record as the DBacks.

Yea, it’s supposed to be last years record. However since they both had some record last year, you can’t be sure what they’ll do. 
 

With all the chatter about teams intentionally  tanking for higher picks, I can very well see Manfred just giving our pick to Arizona on the justification we had the #1 pick in 2019, should we finish with the same record this year 

Edited by DCSaints_fan
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2 hours ago, DCSaints_fan said:

 

With all the chatter about teams intentionally  tanking for higher picks, I can very well see Manfred just giving our pick to Arizona on the justification we had the #1 pick in 2019, should we finish with the same record this year 


That is absolutely something he’d do. 

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31 minutes ago, capcrunch98 said:

When it comes to playing spoiler, nothing beats the O's knocking out the blowhard Red Sox on the last day in 2011.  But taking 2/3 this week was nice.


The Orioles Twitter account changed their profile pic to Robert Andino. Quality trolling. 

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3 hours ago, Rocky21 said:

It’s looking like we’re getting the second pick in the draft

 

Yea Arizona is a losing machine. It is what it is. 

 

But this squad learned a lot of things in the process of the year. Mullins had an amazing year (The best since Brady Anderson in the 90s). Means was great outside some bumps coming back off the IL. Mountcastle is a MOO bat. Hays and Urias are gonna be everyday guys for some time to come.  

 

The pitchers who held their own reasonably well in the 60 game mini-season sucked. That's the biggest disappointment of this season. Kremer, Akin, Lopez... stink, stank, stunk.  Bullpen was much better in the short 2020 season as well.  

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21 minutes ago, SkinFanInMinn said:

AZ came back and won. I believe that gives us the #1 pick. 

 

I believe you are right. Congratulations to Elias on his tank job...again. 

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