The Washington Nationals Thread: The Future is Near!

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/21/keibert-ruiz-catching-nationals/

 

The fun...it's not just Ruiz, the organization as a whole is changing how they coach catchers

The interesting...Ruiz is going through lots of different mechanical changes in just about every aspect of his defensive game

The depressing...they cite a lot of stats that really paint a terrible picture of Ruiz as a position player

 

Contract extension or not, if he doesn't either start hitting better or fielding better, he should be giving up some playing time to Adams/Millas right?

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2024/02/21/keibert-ruiz-catching-nationals/

 

The fun...it's not just Ruiz, the organization as a whole is changing how they coach catchers

The interesting...Ruiz is going through lots of different mechanical changes in just about every aspect of his defensive game

The depressing...they cite a lot of stats that really paint a terrible picture of Ruiz as a position player

 

Contract extension or not, if he doesn't either start hitting better or fielding better, he should be giving up some playing time to Adams/Millas right?

He doesn’t need to have the second most starts at catcher in the league, no. His bat is fine for a catcher. I remember looking at it late in the season and his OPS+ was dead middle in the NL and would have been fifth or sixth in the AL. So on the high side of the middle third across the league. I’m not well versed on catcher fielding metrics, but it looks like he had no control of the run game. Though the amount of steals went way up across the league last year, he was below average in caught stealing percentage when he was comfortably above average in 2022. Hopefully this approach helps along with strategic days off/DH in the dog days of summer.

[PleaseBlitz]

4 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I’m not well versed on catcher fielding metrics, but it looks like he had no control of the run game. Though the amount of steals went way up across the league last year, he was below average in caught stealing percentage when he was comfortably above average in 2022.

 

I think the more effective metric is the number of steals against per game.  That not only captures the success rate on actual SB attempts, but also captures whether opposing teams are even testing the catcher.  It's nearly impossible to measure anyways since it's as much reliant on the pitcher's ability to hold runners close as it is on the catcher's ability to throw them out. 

 

[Ball Security]

5 minutes ago, PleaseBlitz said:

 

I think the more effective metric is the number of steals against per game.  That not only captures the success rate on actual SB attempts, but also captures whether opposing teams are even testing the catcher.  It's nearly impossible to measure anyways since it's as much reliant on the pitcher's ability to hold runners close as it is on the catcher's ability to throw them out. 

 

That would be very difficult to use as the number of steals against per game is dictated by game flow: who gets on base in what situation.

 

Ruiz gave up 51 steals in ‘22 and 119 last year (caught about 20-25% more innings in ‘23). But with the rule changes (no shift, pitch clock, limited throw overs) the number of steals across the league dramatically increased as expected.

 

He was able to throw out 28% in ‘22 when the league average was 24%. Last year he only threw out 15% when the league average was 19%.

 

I saw a good post about his framing and how he was below average in getting pitches at the bottom of the zone called strikes, but was pretty decent for pitches at the top of the zone. In theory, the one knee down approach would address that (that is if the pitchers can keep guys off base!)

 

I still would like them to give him a little more rest/DH duties.

 

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

22 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

He doesn’t need to have the second most starts at catcher in the league, no. His bat is fine for a catcher. I remember looking at it late in the season and his OPS+ was dead middle in the NL and would have been fifth or sixth in the AL. So on the high side of the middle third across the league. I’m not well versed on catcher fielding metrics, but it looks like he had no control of the run game. Though the amount of steals went way up across the league last year, he was below average in caught stealing percentage when he was comfortably above average in 2022. Hopefully this approach helps along with strategic days off/DH in the dog days of summer.

 

Baseball Savant doesn't like his fielding.

 

 

That said, his 2022 numbers aren't nearly as awful.

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

I still would like them to give him a little more rest/DH duties.

 

Definitely. It's a small sample, but 75 Plate Appearances say he hits better when not Catching.

 

[ixcuincle]

Doesn't look like Dylan will make the opening day roster

 

he's good enough to play now but they want to keep him down for service time lol

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

3 hours ago, ixcuincle said:

Doesn't look like Dylan will make the opening day roster

 

he's good enough to play now but they want to keep him down for service time lol

 

Isn't there enough incentive to not do service time (assuming he's ready to compete for ROY) manipulation anymore?

[Ball Security]

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/henry-full-go-to-start-camp-after-thoracic-outlet-syndrome-surgery
 

Would be a really cool story if Henry can get to 75-100 innings this season with the hopes of competing for a rotation spot on 2025. 
 

When he had the procedure, I read that the chances of a younger arm coming back from TOS is a lot better than an arm with a lot of miles (Strasburg). 
 

It would be amazing if medicine gets to the point where TOS is not a career ended.

[@DCGoldPants]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

https://www.masnsports.com/blog/henry-full-go-to-start-camp-after-thoracic-outlet-syndrome-surgery
 

Would be a really cool story if Henry can get to 75-100 innings this season with the hopes of competing for a rotation spot on 2025. 
 

When he had the procedure, I read that the chances of a younger arm coming back from TOS is a lot better than an arm with a lot of miles (Strasburg). 
 

It would be amazing if medicine gets to the point where TOS is not a career ended.

 

I know they want to build him as a starter. It would be nice if he could be a long reliever this year. That way that inning count could probably be respected. But, I know it's not that simple and guys can't just go from thinking every 5th day to..... maybe have to jump up, warm up, and go in for 3 innings.

[Warhead36]

2 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Isn't there enough incentive to not do service time (assuming he's ready to compete for ROY) manipulation anymore?

My guess is he'll be a mid season call up.

 

Crewsmas: June 2024.

[Ball Security]

1 hour ago, @DCGoldPants said:

 

I know they want to build him as a starter. It would be nice if he could be a long reliever this year. That way that inning count could probably be respected. But, I know it's not that simple and guys can't just go from thinking every 5th day to..... maybe have to jump up, warm up, and go in for 3 innings.

Yeah, kind of tough to do at the MLB level. Hopefully his body will respond to what they ask him. I could see him doing 5-10 2IP starts, 10-15 3IP, 10 4-5IP starts.

[@DCGoldPants]

1 hour ago, Ball Security said:

Yeah, kind of tough to do at the MLB level. Hopefully his body will respond to what they ask him. I could see him doing 5-10 2IP starts, 10-15 3IP, 10 4-5IP starts.

 

right right. Also, having a very set schedule to space out when he's building up instead of the random needing to come in after a few innings because your starter threw up all over himself.

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Fangraphs had their Top 100 prospects list, and here's another 100 after those guys they think are pretty good. So here's our guys in the 101-200 range:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/names-to-know-100-more-relevant-prospects/

 

Nasim Nunez, SS, we just got him through Rule 5.

Jarlin Susana

Yohandy Morales

 

Didn't know about Nunez, he profiles as someone with great defense, great base running, good plate discipline, ok arm (can't make all the throws from SS, conversion to 2B?), but no power.

[Ball Security]

11 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

Fangraphs had their Top 100 prospects list, and here's another 100 after those guys they think are pretty good. So here's our guys in the 101-200 range:

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/names-to-know-100-more-relevant-prospects/

 

Nasim Nunez, SS, we just got him through Rule 5.

Jarlin Susana

Yohandy Morales

 

Didn't know about Nunez, he profiles as someone with great defense, great base running, good plate discipline, ok arm (can't make all the throws from SS, conversion to 2B?), but no power.

I’d be surprised if Nunez doesn’t make the team as they suggest (would think Kieboom goes). He’s the ideal guy to have as a Rule V. 13th position player who can pinch run. I like this a lot better than trying to get Ward through the season.

[Ball Security]

I always get excited this time of year. First game is tomorrow.

 

The offseason has been pretty meh. I feel like there were some moves out there to address starting pitching and a power bat. I understand the approach and I don’t think these were big missed opportunities. Though I would check in with Montgomery and make a splash if other teams aren’t meeting his demands. The class next year has some guys, but there seems to be a lot of money left on the sidelines this offseason. The competition will be fierce.

 

I don’t like what they are doing with 3B. Hope I’m wrong, but Senzel looks like this year’s Dickerson to me. The options were not great. But I think I’d have kept Chavis and have him compete with Kieboom. Or signed Segura instead and have him be a hedge at 2B and 3B.

 

The Gallo signing could have some upside. If he is this year’s Candelario that would be a big win. He’s an ugly player, but even with the atrocious batting average he still can be an average player who has potential to break out.

 

I like the Rule V pickup. He provides pinch running ability right away and you can hide him better than a pitcher. And MI depth is needed.

 

I really like a lot of these minor league FA deals. I think Winker and Davies can earn OD spots and there are a collection of relievers that should get them through the season.

 

Last year’s team was 16 wins better than the 22 team because of better starting pitching, better MI defense led by Abrams, and a roster that is more suited for the new rules. The starting pitching was a lot better, but still a bottom fifth staff.

 

The potential is there for Gore to make a big step forward and for Gray to improve. Corbin had a much better year in 23 than 22. Once Cavalli gets back, he may not make 30 starts this year. I’ll feel better about Cavalli making 15ish starts replacing Adon and Kuhl’s 15 starts and having Rutledge and Davies outperform Williams’ starts.

 

The potential is there, but it is also possible that the pitching completely falls off the tracks.

 

Offensively, the team is counting on too many bounce backs with Gallo, Robles, Winker, Garcia Jr, and Senzel. But a lot of these guys will be replaced by the prospects.

 

I can see Abrams taking the next step. 
 

And I’m optimistic about Ruiz and Meneses having better seasons.

 

Just glad that baseball is back.

 

 

[Ball Security]

First ST game. Homerun from Wood. Triple and single for Hassell. 3 scoreless innings combined for Rutledge and Herz.

Edited February 25 by Ball Security

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

6 minutes ago, Ball Security said:

First ST game. Homerun from Wood. Triple and single for Hassell. 3 scoreless innings combined for Rutledge and Herz.

 

After Corbin and Adon got shelled on the first 3 innings, the next 6 were scoreless. In fact only 1 hit and 3 walks in the next 6. Just 5 strikeouts, but still. Relief pitching might not suck this year.

 

Total Bases, 20 to their 13. That's usually a win. (Just found out Total Bases have errors subtracted from them)

 

I'm hoping our pitching roster has some unexpected turnover entering the season.

[Ball Security]

8 minutes ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

After Corbin and Adon got shelled on the first 3 innings, the next 6 were scoreless. In fact only 1 hit and 3 walks in the next 6. Just 5 strikeouts, but still. Relief pitching might not suck this year.

 

Total Bases, 20 to their 13. That's usually a win. (Just found out Total Bases have errors subtracted from them)

 

I'm hoping our pitching roster has some unexpected turnover entering the season.

Sounded like Corbin got let down by his defense (Robles and Thomas). The leash with Robles should be short. Not really sure why the kept him.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

9 hours ago, Ball Security said:

Sounded like Corbin got let down by his defense (Robles and Thomas). The leash with Robles should be short. Not really sure why the kept him.

 

Remember when Robles had elite defense? He fell off fast. Who knew Michael A Taylor would wind up better

[EmirOfShmo]

3 hours ago, Always A Commander Never A Captain said:

 

Remember when Robles had elite defense? He fell off fast. Who knew Michael A Taylor would wind up better

Did Robles play winter ball? If so, how did he do? I suspect his back will never be the same which means his defense will never be as good as it was.

[Riggo#44]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:32 PM, Ball Security said:

But a lot of these guys will be replaced by the prospects.

Bellinger would have been better than Gallo, but I would hate to have his K problems come back next year and be on the hook for 2 more years. 
 

but this is why they made the Senzel move. Kieboom sucks. Let’s see if he has a Candelario season and move him. House, and his 91 EV, is on the way.

 

As I type this Wood crushes another…Bellinger who?

I saw someone say 422 through the wind.

 

[Ball Security]

18 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Bellinger would have been better than Gallo, but I would hate to have his K problems come back next year and be on the hook for 2 more years. 
 

but this is why they made the Senzel move. Kieboom sucks. Let’s see if he has a Candelario season and move him. House, and his 91 EV, is on the way.

 

As I type this Wood crushes another…Bellinger who?

I saw someone say 422 through the wind.

 

I doubt Bellinger would take a similar deal with the Nationals. But the risk there is fine. (Hypothetically, he reverts back to his 21-22 version, you’re burning the money before your prospects start hitting the arbitration increases). I wouldn’t want to give up the draft picks, and I’d rather take the gamble on the starting pitching.

 

Those Wood shots were absolute bombs!

[Ball Security]

Unfortunately game day is a little messed up. Diaz hit a homer, but they credit Adams. I believe it was Hassell who got a hit and SB ahead of it.

 

Hassell has been ripping the ball early here. Perhaps he has a House-like season where he bounces back from injury and climbs the prospect rankings.

[EmirOfShmo]

Noticed in the box score yesterday Ruiz had 2 Es - both for catcher interference. The new mechanics obviously include pushing him forward in the box. Those milliseconds should improve his throw time to 2nd. He just needs to figure out how close he can get & still stay away from the swing.