stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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On 5/6/2018 at 11:34 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

I think it's pretty clear that we reached by a couple rounds on Montae Nicholson and Troy Apke and passed up several players with significantly higher grades to take them.  There is opportunity cost paid in taking them where we did.

 

The Redskins front office/coaches are placing a high emphasis on having a high safety with speed to play in their cover 3. Essential to challenge Nicholson to take the next step.

Defense struggled with Hood and McClain, and all the injuries to the front seven, but the Redskins defense had the most difficulty adapting to losing their ability to run an effective modified cover 3.

 

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On 5/5/2018 at 10:39 PM, Koolblue13 said:

Sip, I on one hand think it's a bit screwy that players know who were going to draft. Seems rookie. 

 

On the other hand, we have a core group of young talent that ****ing loves football and loves to put the work in and are standing on the table to bring in other guys who are the same. 

 

I'm curious if it's just lockerroom commeratory or guys who really want to win football games together. I gotta believe they asked Allen about Anderson and we know they both wanted Payne. 

 

I think relationships and strong lockerrooms win more than lose, so it's definitely important, but players being involved with the draft and Recruiting? IDK, but at least it's from a historically great defense. 

 

Yeah I am on board with these points, camaraderie is important.  I like a lot the whole Alabama player drill.  Hamilton looks like a potential find if he can stay healthy.  I worry a little about Ryan Anderson -- he doesn't fit the profile of the typical successful edge rusher -- short arms, not fast or explosive.  But I like that we are hearing he's getting into really good shape this off season and sometimes you need one year under your belt to turn the light on the next year.

 

The irony is I wonder if next Spring we are talking about Raekwon Davis. He's 6-7, 300 pounds and change and he can get to the QB.  It's very early in the process but right now projected in the mid first round range give or take. But heck finish up the Alabama D line:)

 

https://www.seccountry.com/alabama/massive-defensive-lineman-raekwon-davis-more-than-standing-out-at-alabama

That statistical category usually is topped by a speed guy from the outside, not someone whose primary aim is to fill gaps and occupy as many opposing players as possible so the linebackers and defensive backs can clean up.

 

“Raekwon is a ferocious player, man,” said senior linebacker Rashaan Evans, who is second in sacks with 5.5. “Just to have him on our team, on our defense, man, it helps my job.”

 

To give an idea of how much Davis’ production is standing out, consider that last season Jonathan Allen, who won the two national Defensive Player of the Year honors (Chuck Bednarik and Bronko Nagurski awards) finished with 69 tackles and 10.5 sacks.

 

Granted, Allen was technique and gap sound, meaning that he played to his best in a way that benefited the defense as a whole. But depending on how the rest of this season goes, Davis could challenge those numbers. He is averaging 4.9 tackles and 0.65 sacks per game. In 15 games last season Allen averaged 4.6 and 0.7, respectively.

 

Davis already has the sixth-most tackles by an Alabama defensive lineman in a single season since Saban arrived in 2007. The list is topped by another player who had a good motor, Wallace Gilberry.

 

 

Most tackles by an Alabama defensive lineman

 Player Season Tackles Sacks
 Wallace Gilberry 2007 80 10.0
 Jonathan Allen 2016 69 10.5
 Dalvin Tomlinson 2016 62 3.0
 Jarran Reed 2015 57 1.0
 Jarran Reed 2014 54 1.0
Raekwon Davis   2017 49 6.5
 A’Shawn Robinson 2014 49 0
 A’Shawn Robinson 2015 46 3.5
 Ed Stinson 2013 41 1.5
 Bobby Greenwood 2008 40 5.0
Edited by Skinsinparadise
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On 5/6/2018 at 10:57 AM, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

 

A run of two to three strong draft classes in a row can create the foundation for a Superbowl contender.  I think one more great class gets us into that conversation. 

 

I like the roster they are building.  Interesting how Vegas and the pundit types who do power rankings mostly see this as not even a mediocre team but a bottom rung roster -- a descending as opposed to ascending team.  https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2018/may/7/alex-smith-redskins-draft-dont-move-needle-nfl-odd/

 

If a Superbowl roster they are building we can safely say many don't see it coming.  If so, that will make it more fun. 

 

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Eagles were 50-1 last year. NFL is so tough to judge, outside of those with elite QBs. 

 

I love the roster and direction of team. Hope it works itself out, as I dont want to go through an overhaul of FO and coaches. Yuck!

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7 hours ago, wit33 said:

Eagles were 50-1 last year. NFL is so tough to judge, outside of those with elite QBs. 

 

I love the roster and direction of team. Hope it works itself out, as I dont want to go through an overhaul of FO and coaches. Yuck!

I would be really, really bummed to lose Gray and Tomsula (I like the rest of the coaches as well).  I’m thinking we’re going to have a respectable team though.  Enough to make the playoffs and win a game (if that’s what it takes)?  Well, some things will have to work out, but I’d say certainly it’s possible.  

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Brugler. who I think is pretty good, another draft geek who doesn't respect our roster and thinks we got a top 10 pick next year.  If I recall I've seen now seven 2019 mocks, 6 of them had us in the top 10.  The only one off the top of my head who doesn't is Walter Football.  We are down towards the bottom in just about every power ranking and Vegas odds drill.  Should be interesting because like I said if the Redskins have a good year I can say confidently the pundits don't see it coming -- they seem to think its going south not north from the previous season.  On another note, seems like Brugler loves himself Raekwon Davis.

 

https://www.themaven.net/nfldraftscout/mocks/2019-mock-draft-bosa-defensive-line-dominate-z0-dc0ainUG7pzJU_JupmQ/?full=1

 

5. Cleveland Browns -- Raekwon Davis, DL, Alabama*

A physical freak at 6-7 and 305 pounds, Davis has a chance to emerge as the best NFL prospect produced by Alabama during the Nick Saban era.

 

Redskins have their work cut out for them in 2018. @CGTechnology_ has them favored in just four games this season. (via @SharpFootball)

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Edited by Skinsinparadise
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I think the pundits are missing a pretty key indicator with us that suggests we'll be good: we should have very strong offensive and defensive lines.  Quarterback should only be a mild downgrade, it's not enough to think we're going to go into the tank.  The running game should be much better.  The losses at corner should be offset by gains in the middle of the defense.  Playing a tough schedule isn't a good enough reason to think we'll go into the tank either.  Last year's schedule was brutal and we still won 7 games.  Would have won more if not for a very unusually bad injury luck. 

 

We've been stable in that 7-9 win range the last three years, and for the most part, this team should be better than those previous teams because our two most recent drafts have been a lot better than our drafts from '13 to '16.  They massively upgraded our talent on defense, particularly the line.

 

I don't see us regressing at all, and I think it's shallow analysis leading the pundits to that conclusion.

 

 

Edited by stevemcqueen1
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Re: Raekwon Davis,

 

If he goes top ten next year, it'll be a projection based on his physical traits.  He's not the sum of his parts yet.  He'll splash on two or three plays a game, but he is not consistently impactful.  And he was the beneficiary of getting single blocked most downs.  Things are going to be much different for him next year when teams are scheming to stop him.  Especially if Jennings gets hurt again.  Even he doesn't improve quite a bit from last year to next, then he's not going to be impactful.  He's not your typical Alabama overachiever and that's a little disappointing.

 

The physical tools are tantalizing.  He's a highly noticeable freak of nature wandering around on the field.  But he is not in Dexter Lawrence's and Ed Oliver's league at all.  I'm going to need to see a lot of growth from him before I buy into him as a top ten pick, because this past year I saw Quinton Coples in him.  I got burned by Coples and I'm not going to get blinded by physical traits on an interior DL like that again.

 

Oliver and Lawrence are the real deal.  I see Ndamukong Suh in Oliver and Albert Haynesworth in Lawrence.

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On 5/7/2018 at 9:22 AM, skinsfan212689 said:

Question: What day does the rookie mini camp start for the Skins?

 

Can't wait to see what numbers they pick. And hopefully a starting left guard emerges out of these rookies (or Kalis) sometime in the next 2 months or so. 

The numbers are up on the roster page at redskins.com

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I recall GHH being a big Brugler guy.  I like him, too. What got my attention the other day was Brugler touted the Cowboys draft in part because they took 4 guys in his top 100.   I just looked at the Redskins compared to Brugler's top 100.  The Redskins took 2 of his top 100 and only one of them he ranked in his top 32 (first round) and that was Guice.  

 

On the other hand, our picks match very well with PFF, got 4 in their top 100, a 5th barely missing it.  And a 6th close.  They rated our draft "good" and gave a bunch of other teams better ratings though -- I think that's probably because we don't have really an upper tier player under their metrics.   They like Hurst, Bryan, Vea over Payne.  And they like some RBs over Guice -- they have an odd man crush on Penny.    If took Derwin James, our rating would probably soar with them, they got a massive man crush on the dude. 

 

Not that it matters.  But I'll recall this next draft season.  I have been under the assumption that PFF who can be a bit funky and off the wall with some of their mock drafts is one outfit to ignore.  But as to the Redskins at least judging from this draft -- they were pretty relevant.

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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35 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I recall GHH being a big Brugler guy.  I like him, too. What got my attention the other day was Brugler touted the Cowboys draft in part because they took 4 guys in his top 100.   I just looked at the Redskins compared to Brugler's top 100.  The Redskins took 2 of his top 100 and only one of them he ranked in his top 32 (first round) and that was Guice.  

 

On the other hand, our picks match very well with PFF, got 4 in their top 100, a 5th barely missing it.  And a 6th close.  They rated our draft "good" and gave a bunch of other teams better ratings though -- I think that's probably because we don't have really an upper tier player under their metrics.   They like Hurst, Bryan, Vea over Payne.  And they like some RBs over Guice -- they have an odd man crush on Penny.    If took Derwin James, our rating would probably soar with them, they got a massive man crush on the dude. 

 

Not that it matters.  But I'll recall this next draft season.  I have been under the assumption that PFF who can be a bit funky and off the wall with some of their mock drafts is one outfit to ignore.  But as to the Redskins at least judging from this draft -- they were pretty relevant.

 

I agree about PFF mock drafts. While I think they are the best site for prospect info on actual play and rankings, their mocks are based on what they would do. This is almost always inaccurate. 

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Not that it matters.  But I'll recall this next draft season.  I have been under the assumption that PFF who can be a bit funky and off the wall with some of their mock drafts is one outfit to ignore.  But as to the Redskins at least judging from this draft -- they were pretty relevant.

 

They are very hit or miss.  I don't really trust their scouting eye.  But the one thing they have going for them is that they watch film and do their own analysis.  I'm just not sure who is actually doing the watching.  It could be someone with legit experience or it could be, to use Monk's phrase, an Irish teenager with a laptop.

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2 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

On the other hand, our picks match very well with PFF, got 4 in their top 100, a 5th barely missing it.  And a 6th close.  They rated our draft "good" and gave a bunch of other teams better ratings though -- I think that's probably because we don't have really an upper tier player under their metrics.   They like Hurst, Bryan, Vea over Payne.  And they like some RBs over Guice -- they have an odd man crush on Penny.    If took Derwin James, our rating would probably soar with them, they got a massive man crush on the dude. 

 

Not that it matters.  But I'll recall this next draft season.  I have been under the assumption that PFF who can be a bit funky and off the wall with some of their mock drafts is one outfit to ignore.  But as to the Redskins at least judging from this draft -- they were pretty relevant.

 

Does PFF include any player projection in their rankings, or are they basing it solely on college production?  I'm pretty sure it's the latter.  The former is what makes a scout good at their job.  The latter, almost anyone with enough time on their hands can do.

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I don't put too much stock into those ratings. I think we may have missed out on James, but I really like the guys we did get. Also, if anyone didn't watch the combine workout videos of Settle and Payne, they are worth watching. Payne is in an entirely different league in terms of his feet, explosiveness, and movement. He looks like a LB'er in his movements at times. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/da'ron-payne?id=32462018-0002-5600-68ba-6b48873dba9b

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap3000000925045/Tim-Settle-s-full-2018-NFL-Scouting-Combine-workout

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38 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

I don't put too much stock into those ratings. I think we may have missed out on James, but I really like the guys we did get. Also, if anyone didn't watch the combine workout videos of Settle and Payne, they are worth watching. Payne is in an entirely different league in terms of his feet, explosiveness, and movement. He looks like a LB'er in his movements at times. 

 

https://www.nfl.com/prospects/da'ron-payne?id=32462018-0002-5600-68ba-6b48873dba9b

 

http://www.nfl.com/videos/nfl-combine/0ap3000000925045/Tim-Settle-s-full-2018-NFL-Scouting-Combine-workout

 

You can hear Jeremiah say he thinks Payne is a top 15 pick in that video.  He was right.

 

Payne's workout was impressive.  The movement skills and speed you talk about really stand out.  Another thing that jumps out at me are the hands.  Listen to how hard he hits the bag and the hand movements are so rapid and comfortable.  He is heavy hitter.

 

The body type is also really unique for the position.  It's unusual for a nose to be carrying so little bad bulk.  An NFL DL can have a ten year career with a good, fit build like that.

 

Payne is a really unusual prospect because he doesn't invite easy comparisons.  He profiles much more like a three technique than a nose, and thus he is kind of his own thing.  I think he might be a significantly better prospect than other noses that have come out in the past.  The history of greatness at the nose position in the NFL is actually pretty shallow.

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1 hour ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Payne is a really unusual prospect because he doesn't invite easy comparisons.  He profiles much more like a three technique than a nose, and thus he is kind of his own thing.  I think he might be a significantly better prospect than other noses that have come out in the past.  The history of greatness at the nose position in the NFL is actually pretty shallow.


A less jacked Ndamukong Suh was the best I could think of. 

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47 minutes ago, Silvernon said:


A less jacked Ndamukong Suh was the best I could think of. 

 

Suh's not really a nose.  He's a stand three/five tech in the vein of Richard Seymour and Justin Smith.

 

Payne is more like Kenny Clark, only he's faster, stronger, more explosive, and has better hands and arm length.

Javon Hargrave is another comparison that comes to mind.

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6 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Suh's not really a nose.  He's a stand three/five tech in the vein of Richard Seymour and Justin Smith.

 

Payne is more like Kenny Clark, only he's faster, stronger, more explosive, and has better hands and arm length.

Javon Hargrave is another comparison that comes to mind.

 

This is going to sound like am down on Payne - I am not. I like his potential. However, I (and am not alone at all) have some concerns about him. When you watch game film on him - not just highlights - while he shows all those traits you mentioned - fast (great get off), strong, explosive, quick for a guy his size there are three things that worry me about him: 

 

1. He comes off the snap too high. This lets oline get leverage and stand him up delaying his rush just a split second, therefore negating his initial quick move. 

2. There have been at least several times where he gave up when stood up. It was enough times that it was noticeable.

3. While he gets to the QB - or RB for that matter, he struggles actually bringing them down. There was even a highlight reel that did not show him one on one tackling anyone - see below. 

 

I am sure the coming in high can be coached out of him. This would minimize the number of times #2 happens. But I have to be honest #3 is what worries me most about him. Hopefully that can also be coached - or I am just completely wrong. 

 

Again, I really like Payne. He has a lot of raw athleticism. Just hope they can coach him up and he listens. 

 

I realize it's a small sample size - but there are supposed to be highlights. His start at the 1:13 mark. 

 

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6 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

They are very hit or miss.  I don't really trust their scouting eye.  But the one thing they have going for them is that they watch film and do their own analysis.  I'm just not sure who is actually doing the watching.  It could be someone with legit experience or it could be, to use Monk's phrase, an Irish teenager with a laptop.

 

Yeah I agree with all of this.  And their mocks tend to be off the beaten path -- that's why it struck me that the picks they made this year are very in line with PFF.  

4 hours ago, HTTRDynasty said:

 

Does PFF include any player projection in their rankings, or are they basing it solely on college production?  I'm pretty sure it's the latter.  The former is what makes a scout good at their job.  The latter, almost anyone with enough time on their hands can do.

 

Yeah they often use some projection in their mocks but they are heavier on their metrics.    For example Stroman ranks really high with them, our 7th rounder based on their version of passer rating against him. 

 

 

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18 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

Suh's not really a nose.  He's a stand three/five tech in the vein of Richard Seymour and Justin Smith.

 

Payne is more like Kenny Clark, only he's faster, stronger, more explosive, and has better hands and arm length.

Javon Hargrave is another comparison that comes to mind.

 

I'm interested in what you think our depth chart will look like in our 4-3 package. Payne will obviously get the bulk of the snaps at NT, but that's only about a third of our defensive snaps, and I would hope we would spell him some at that spot with Settle, to save Payne a little bit for pass rushing duties. 


I think in our nickel, which is a 4-3, we need to see a lot of Payne, Allen, and Ioannidis, and I would probably try to 1 gap Payne as much as possible. He's not as quick as Aaron Donald, obviously, but he is very quick and has tremendous power. I see that as a difficult combination to stop if we just tell him to explode through the gap and disrupt. 

 

The problem is, Kerrigan is going to eat up almost all of the snaps at LDE, and Smith will probably eat up most of the snaps at RDE. Allen and Ioannidis were so effective at generating pass rush last year, before the injury bug. I'd hate to cut their snaps a ton. I guess it is a good problem to have. 

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52 minutes ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'm interested in what you think our depth chart will look like in our 4-3 package. Payne will obviously get the bulk of the snaps at NT, but that's only about a third of our defensive snaps, and I would hope we would spell him some at that spot with Settle, to save Payne a little bit for pass rushing duties. 


I think in our nickel, which is a 4-3, we need to see a lot of Payne, Allen, and Ioannidis, and I would probably try to 1 gap Payne as much as possible. He's not as quick as Aaron Donald, obviously, but he is very quick and has tremendous power. I see that as a difficult combination to stop if we just tell him to explode through the gap and disrupt. 

 

The problem is, Kerrigan is going to eat up almost all of the snaps at LDE, and Smith will probably eat up most of the snaps at RDE. Allen and Ioannidis were so effective at generating pass rush last year, before the injury bug. I'd hate to cut their snaps a ton. I guess it is a good problem to have. 

 

Yeah, it's hard to decrease Ioannidis' reps when he's out there making plays like this:

 

 

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1 hour ago, Anselmheifer said:

 

I'm interested in what you think our depth chart will look like in our 4-3 package. Payne will obviously get the bulk of the snaps at NT, but that's only about a third of our defensive snaps, and I would hope we would spell him some at that spot with Settle, to save Payne a little bit for pass rushing duties. 


I think in our nickel, which is a 4-3, we need to see a lot of Payne, Allen, and Ioannidis, and I would probably try to 1 gap Payne as much as possible. He's not as quick as Aaron Donald, obviously, but he is very quick and has tremendous power. I see that as a difficult combination to stop if we just tell him to explode through the gap and disrupt. 

 

The problem is, Kerrigan is going to eat up almost all of the snaps at LDE, and Smith will probably eat up most of the snaps at RDE. Allen and Ioannidis were so effective at generating pass rush last year, before the injury bug. I'd hate to cut their snaps a ton. I guess it is a good problem to have. 

We need a solid rotation of guys on the DLine to keep everyone healthy and rested all game and all season. So we can use any combination of Smith, Kerrigan, Ioannisis,  Allen and Payne. If they all get around the same number of snaps each game we will have a Top 5 DLine. Something we have needed for a very very long time.

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1 hour ago, HTTRDynasty said:

Yeah, it's hard to decrease Ioannidis' reps when he's out there making plays like this:

That's a 5th round pick abusing 2 OL on one play.

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