stevemcqueen1

2018 Comprehensive NFL Draft Thread

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Seems like if they are looking at a guy like Anthony Miller, it's a slot replacement for Crowder next year in case his price goes too high.

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4 hours ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Production is important, but it isn't the end all.  Especially not with Alabama defenders.  Minkah was one of the best defensive players in the country, we all agree he's one of the best defensive players in this class, and he didn't exactly fill up the stat sheet.

 

These guys play low snap counts in balanced units where everyone executes and there isn't really room for one stud defender to pile up numbers like there is on lesser defenses.

 

You have to measure their level of execution by charting plays and grading them.

 

DaRon Payne is a good prospect and he offers decent value at 13.  He's a little undersized but the on field performance is good enough to prove he wasn't hindered by size at a very competitive level of college football.  And the flipside is that he doesn't carry around any bad weight.  He can stay on the field all three downs and he holds up through the fourth quarter.  And he has the tools and ability to play the 1, 3, and 5, so he brings DL versatility to the table.  He is very explosive off the snap and a very good runner for a DT.  Better athlete than people realize.  Superb technician.  Pads stay low, never gives up ground.  Balance is as good as it gets and has the athleticism to hit ball carriers off his frame and you see the result in his unusually good tackle numbers for an Alabama nose.  Great punch, great arm extension, good arm length at 33.  Very, very strong hands.  Immovable anchor at the 0 and 1 and spent a lot of time holding his ground against doubles this year.  College guys who are comfortable against doubles project well to the NFL.  Play recognition is solid. 

 

Bottom line, Payne is super clean and he's a different kind of nose.  He can run.  Good push-pull, bull, and arm over rusher.  Fast enough to twist and stunt.  No counters but he has upside as a rusher because of his speed and power.  Depends on the scheme.  If he plays a similar role for his NFL team that he did for Alabama, probably not gonna generate a lot of pressure.  But he'll play dominant two gap rush defense.

 

Obviously Minkah is better than him.  So are Roquan and the Florida State safety.  Tremaine Edmunds also has higher upside.  Harold Landry is probably better too.  I'm not advocating taking Payne over those guys.  But he wouldn't be an awful reach at 13, and he'd be really good value if we dropped down a few spots.  He's got fringe Pro-bowl talent.  Sort of like Corey Liuget only stronger and not as sloppy around the middle.  If you added him to our rotation he could start at the 1 tech immediately and we'd have a really impressive and quick group between him, Allen, and Ioannidis.

 

all that talent and upside, yet next to no production. I understand he wasn't asked to shoulder the load at bama, but there ain't a whole lot there wrt even pedestrian production. I find that concerning. I know you said it's not the end all be all, and I agree. However he should have accidentally lucked into some more sacks/hurries/tackles with the amount of studs around him.. yet there's not much there. I'm convinced Payne is a 2nd round guy.

Edited by crabbypatty
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I think Barkley, Guice and Sony Michel are going to go in the first round,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “It wouldn’t shock me if Ronald Jones went early in the second round. But it wouldn’t shock me if you saw a little bit of a drop there because that next pack of guys with Ronald Jones, Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, that’s a good group.

“I think that first three have kind of separated themselves. After that, I think you’ll see that order vary. Some of these guys you’re going to think are early second-round picks, they might be there in the late third round.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2018/04/16/uscs-ronald-jones-is-a-playmaker-but-the-redskins-may-want-a-running-back-to-move-the-chains/?utm_term=.fdaf087bfa1e

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28 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I think Barkley, Guice and Sony Michel are going to go in the first round,” NFL Network analyst Daniel Jeremiah said. “It wouldn’t shock me if Ronald Jones went early in the second round. But it wouldn’t shock me if you saw a little bit of a drop there because that next pack of guys with Ronald Jones, Nick Chubb, Rashaad Penny, Kerryon Johnson, that’s a good group.

“I think that first three have kind of separated themselves. After that, I think you’ll see that order vary. Some of these guys you’re going to think are early second-round picks, they might be there in the late third round.”

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/football-insider/wp/2018/04/16/uscs-ronald-jones-is-a-playmaker-but-the-redskins-may-want-a-running-back-to-move-the-chains/?utm_term=.fdaf087bfa1e

I think Barkley and Guice are 1st round locks easy. Michel I have as a early 2nd guy but he could sneak into the back half of the 1st.

Everyone thinks Guice will be available around 20-25, I don't think so. I think he's gone in the top 15-18.

 

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1 hour ago, crabbypatty said:

 

all that talent and upside, yet next to no production. I understand he wasn't asked to shoulder the load at bama, but there ain't a whole lot there wrt even pedestrian production. I find that concerning. I know you said it's not the end all be all, and I agree. However he should have accidentally lucked into some more sacks/hurries/tackles with the amount of studs around him.. yet there's not much there. I'm convinced Payne is a 2nd round guy.

The lack of statistical production is concerning but he is  almost 2 years younger then Allen was coming out of school, so that is another thing to consider.   What would his stats have looked like had he played one more year?   Maybe he is a reach at the 13 pick but his skill set is exactly what the skins need.   The ability to take on multiple blockers, hold against the POA, and make tackles, is the thing I am looking for most from a DT.

 

Hopefully they can trade back and still get him.

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Thinking about this draft, there's something that really strikes me, and it is the real downturn in quality coaching in this league. You have lots of hot-at-the-moment coordinators who are able to position themselves for HC gigs as a result of their teams making it to (and perhaps succeeding to varying levels) in the playoffs. Teams like the Eagles, whom I hate but respect, have coaches who can really develop the talent that they acquire either by draft or other means. All teams don't have that capability, so I feel really bad for some of the kids coming out of this draft who might wind up someplace like Miami, for instance. Cleveland is different now.....and truly so. They have staff who can really develop players. I'm very intrigued at what they'll do in the draft because i think that this is a team that bears watching over the next 2-3 years to see how it evolves in a remarkably positive fashion.

 

I still think most of these QBs that everyone's talking about are fools gold. The hype of the four-letter network has elevated some of those kids to a stratosphere inconsistent with translatable skills at the pro level. I wouldn't be surprised if Ryan Finley, Brandon Silvers, and Logan Woodside develop and have more success and longevity at the pro level than the big names being tossed around right now. Keep an eye on those guys. I think Cleveland takes one of them, lets him sit for a year or two behind Taylor, and then big things might happen.

Edited by skinzplay
misspelling -- changed the name from Brandon Slivers to Brandon Silvers
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I don't really have a strong opinion on Payne one way or another.   I can't find the tweet but Keim had an exchange with someone on Vea versus Payne and he said a few contacts he had with personnel guys (not per se with the Redskins) told him that Vea is clearly better.   Cooley I noticed in his film reviews isn't in love with either Vea or Payne but thinks they will be good run stoppers.  

 

 

Grant PaulsenVerified account @granthpaulsen
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Question for #NFLDraft marks and Da'Ron Payne lovers. Why did he only have one tackle for loss and one sack last season? #Redskins

Edited by Skinsinparadise
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Payne's only 20, right? He's got an absurd amount of potential and putting him next to his boy Allen will be so ****ing helpful. We're starting to get a lot of players who are serious about their careers and that's important. 

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Farrar isn't the only guy touting Guice being comparable to Barkley.  Ledyard thinks Guice is flat out better.  I know the Barkley #1 back drill is a scared point and I agree with it but I think it brings home how good Guice could be.   

 

Doug Farrar below

http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2770090-is-saquon-barkley-really-a-generational-rb-talent?utm_source=twitter.com&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=programming-national

Still, I'd pump the brakes on the "generational" label. In truth, Barkley may not even end up as the best running back in this draft class. If LSU's Derrius Guice returns to his pre-injury form in 2016, when he showed nearly equivalent speed and far better ability to move through defenders in power situations, he might prove to be more valuable. Guice doesn't have Barkley's receiving chops—no back in this class does—but Guice has the more polished skill set as a pure running back. And Barkley's inconsistency on those big plays is cause for concern if his future team doesn't have a fundamentally sound and potentially dominant offensive line.

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35 minutes ago, Koolblue13 said:

Payne's only 20, right? He's got an absurd amount of potential and putting him next to his boy Allen will be so ****ing helpful. We're starting to get a lot of players who are serious about their careers and that's important. 

Yes dependability is huge.   This is why I am not as high on Vea.   I am not worried as much about finding the next superstar play maker up front.     I want a platoon of strong, dependable, and versatile young guys up front.  Guys that can work together and be a force for years to come.   Payne might have a lower ceiling then a guy like Vea but I think he has the highest floor of the top D-tackles.    It appears like there is a smaller bust potential with Payne then some of the other guys and this is very important.     

 

We can't afford a miss here.   

Edited by CurseReversed
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3 hours ago, crabbypatty said:

I think Barkley and Guice are 1st round locks easy. Michel I have as a early 2nd guy but he could sneak into the back half of the 1st.

Everyone thinks Guice will be available around 20-25, I don't think so. I think he's gone in the top 15-18.

 

 

You're higher on Michel than me.  I've got him about a round lower than you.

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1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

I don't really have a strong opinion on Payne one way or another.   I can't find the tweet but Keim had an exchange with someone on Vea versus Payne and he said a few contacts he had with personnel guys (not per se with the Redskins) told him that Vea is clearly better.   Cooley I noticed in his film reviews isn't in love with either Vea or Payne but thinks they will be good run stoppers.  

 

 

Grant PaulsenVerified account @granthpaulsen
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Question for #NFLDraft marks and Da'Ron Payne lovers. Why did he only have one tackle for loss and one sack last season? #Redskins

 

 

Same reason Minkah Fitzpatrick only had 1 INT last year? 

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39 minutes ago, CurseReversed said:

Yes dependability is huge.   This is why I am not as high on Vea.   I am not worried as much about finding the next superstar play maker up front.     I want a platoon of strong, dependable, and versatile young guys up front.  Guys that can work together and be a force for years to come.   Payne might have a lower ceiling then a guy like Vea but I think he has the highest floor of the top D-tackles.    It appears like there is a smaller bust potential with Payne then some of the other guys and this is very important.     

 

We can't afford a miss here.   

I'd love to find the next Sapp or Fuller, but if we could have 4 or 5 very good rotational guys who just love football and respect the preparation needed to be great, that's cool with me.

10 minutes ago, RWJ said:

Woah! 

Damn, that dudes got the potential to be a monster too. Kind of the next Sean Lee, but bigger, faster and much more injured.

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1 hour ago, CurseReversed said:

Yes dependability is huge.   This is why I am not as high on Vea.   I am not worried as much about finding the next superstar play maker up front.     I want a platoon of strong, dependable, and versatile young guys up front.  Guys that can work together and be a force for years to come.   Payne might have a lower ceiling then a guy like Vea but I think he has the highest floor of the top D-tackles.    It appears like there is a smaller bust potential with Payne then some of the other guys and this is very important.     

 

We can't afford a miss here.   

 

I'd have to disagree here. IMO, what our team is missing the most is top-end talent. Can we really name a single player on our team that opponents have to specifically game plan against week in and week out? Trent Williams is a stud, but the nature of his position is one where if you don't hear much about him then he is doing his job. Norman is solid, but doesn't seem to be the turnover machine that other top CB's in the league are. Jordan Reed is also great, but realistically, can we really count on him for even half of a season? 

 

This team has plenty of good players, but what we need are great players. Because of that, I think the three players I'd like us to draft the most are D. James, R. Smith or Edmunds. All of those guys seem to have either the play-making skills or physical attributes to be pro-bowlers at the next level. 

 

While we can't afford a miss, I think settling for a safer prospect is a good way to stay at 8-8 again. 

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16 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

Same reason Minkah Fitzpatrick only had 1 INT last year? 

 

Grant's point wasn't just sacks but he threw in tackles for losses.  But to play along with the idea that sacks-TFLs are apples to apples to INTs for a CB.   Minkah had 6 INTs the year before -- if I recall 4 of them returned for a TD -- that's insane -- so in 2016 was an INT monster. 

 

 

 

 

Payne has yet to have a year statistically that's interesting like that.   However, in his defense nose tackle types rarely do.  

 

 

I am agnostic about Payne, don't love him, don't hate him.  I'd hate it if they took him at 13 but in a trade down I wouldn't hate it.

 

Jonathan Allen's last two years at Alabama: 30.5 TFL's and 22.5 sacks. Da'Ron Payne's last two years at Alabama: 4.5 TFL's and 2.5 sacks. #Redskins #NFLDraft

 

 
 

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1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Grant's point wasn't just sacks but he threw in tackles for losses.  But to play along with the idea that sacks-TFLs are apples to apples to INTs for a CB.   Minkah had 6 INTs the year before -- if I recall 4 of them returned for a TD -- that's insane -- so in 2016 was an INT monster. 

 

 

 

Payne has yet to have a year statistically that's interesting like that.   However, in his defense nose tackle types rarely do.  

 

 

I am agnostic about Payne, don't love him, don't hate him.  I'd hate it if they took him at 13 but in a trade down I wouldn't hate it.

 

Jonathan Allen's last two years at Alabama: 30.5 TFL's and 22.5 sacks. Da'Ron Payne's last two years at Alabama: 4.5 TFL's and 2.5 sacks. #Redskins #NFLDraft

 

 
 

 

 

I know, it was more of a tongue in cheek type statement along the lines of 'stats dont lie....'  til they do.  

 

1 Alabama 14 487 1326 2.72 9

94.7

 

Alabama was the no. 1 ranked rush defense in the country last year... and he was a MAJOR part of it.  I'm not trying to stand on the table with a bullhorn for him, I personally think Vea is a better fit right now for us.. My simple point was that his value goes a lot deeper than the shallow stat sheet of TFL / Sacks would imply.  

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9 minutes ago, OVCChairman said:

 

 

I know, it was more of a tongue in cheek type statement along the lines of 'stats dont lie....'  til they do.  

 

1 Alabama 14 487 1326 2.72 9

94.7

 

Alabama was the no. 1 ranked rush defense in the country last year... and he was a MAJOR part of it.  I'm not trying to stand on the table with a bullhorn for him, I personally think Vea is a better fit right now for us.. My simple point was that his value goes a lot deeper than the shallow stat sheet of TFL / Sacks would imply.  

 

I agree.  I've watched Payne in a number of games but I don't really have a great feel for him.  For me, I have a hard time judging DTs especially the pure run stuffing types where I have to project on what else they can do.  So I go more with others opinions especially Cooley who has nailed it on a number of D lineman who came through the door.

 

His take on Payne seems more or less, good player not a great one.  He doesn't think he ultimately develops into bringing much of a pass rush.  He thinks ability wise he doesn't belong in the first half of the first round and deserves to be picked somewhere in the late first round.

 

Cooley is convinced that Payne so obviously doesn't belong in the conversation for being picked in the top half of the first round that the team's interest in him is telegraphing their desire to trade down -- he thinks no one is touching Payne before pick 20 at the earliest.  Will see. 

Edited by Skinsinparadise

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If Vea is still available when we're on the clock I hope we pick him, I believe he has the potential to be better than NGata.

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Football Outsiders just released their sackseer numbers.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2018/sackseer-2018

 

So I started looking at some of these later round guys.  Marquis Haynes is an undersized, athletic guy, whose only real use is situational rusher and has some burst around the edge.  Day 3 pick at best.

 

Tyquan Lewis is interesting.  Bigger guy, good arm length, lined up everywhere for Ohio State.  Edge, 5 tech, 3 tech, even 1 tech at times.  The latter two were only on obvious passing downs.  He has some nice jab steps when lined up inside, a little too quick for Guards/Centers to handle.  Not a force against the run but decent.  I have a hunch he'll be good on special teams as well.

 

When I was watching Tyquan Lewis, it was against USC.  Darnold does some nice things, but he also struggles at times.  His receivers really need a wide catch radius.  The guy who kept popping out on screen was Deontay Burnett.  5'11 and 5/8ths, 186 pounds, quick feet, wide catch radius.  Doesn't have the firmest (or largest) hands so the ball can be stripped out after he's caught it.  That said, he was simply open.  Often.

 

Lance Zierlien has him as his 19th WR.  Gil Brandt did not have him in his Top 150 prospects.  Football Outsiders says NFL Draft Scout lists him as a 4th/5th rounder.

 

If that's how it shakes out, I think we should strongly consider drafting him in the 5th round as our Jamison Crowder insurance/replacement.

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14 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I agree.  I've watched Payne in a number of games but I don't really have a great feel for him.  For me, I have a hard time judging DTs especially the pure run stuffing types where I have to project on what else they can do.  So I go more with others opinions especially Cooley who has nailed it on a number of D lineman who came through the door.

 

His take on Payne seems more or less, good player not a great one.  He doesn't think he ultimately develops into bringing much of a pass rush.  He thinks ability wise he doesn't belong in the first half of the first round and deserves to be picked somewhere in the late first round.

 

Cooley is convinced that Payne so obviously doesn't belong in the conversation for being picked in the top half of the first round that the team's interest in him is telegraphing their desire to trade down -- he thinks no one is touching Payne before pick 20 at the earliest.  Will see. 

 

I get it, and I don't completely disagree with it.  We don't want to take a guy at 13 if he's not worth that pick.  The question then becomes... to what level do you balance expected draft position vs team need vs value of pick.  For a team that has the luxury to truly going BPA in the draft due to a lower number of glaring holes, they may not want to take him there.  He doesn't grade out as the 13th best player in the draft for them.  Does that mean he's the 13th best pick for the REDSKINS?  You would hope that the draft board reflects a balance across those things, and as of now, Payne is 'more valuable' to us than he may be to someone who's set on the front 4. 

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3 minutes ago, Alcoholic Zebra said:

 

 

If that's how it shakes out, I think we should strongly consider drafting him in the 5th round as our Jamison Crowder insurance/replacement.

It may be a lazy comp, but early in the draft process a few guys I follow compared Burnett to Smith-Schuster. SS went in the 3rd, I believe, but similar skill-set, same school, and possibly similar outlook ... I would love Burnett ... could be someone we snatch if he's there in the 4th and especially the 5th, but suspect others will jump on him sooner.

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Watching Paynes highlight films are boring as **** and I love them. If there was a stat for RB gains of a yard or two, he would lead everyone. He may not get into the backfield very much, but he never leaves the middle of the line, no matter how many guys try and move him and he's very good at getting off those blocks and making the tackle. He just lives there and backs don't get past him. The best part is that's his floor. No idea where his ceiling is.

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