The (only!) official ES all things Kirk Cousins should we shouldn't we off-season thread.

[TheGreatBuzz]

12 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

You could be and, in fact, are. They are two different things.

Yup.  Just read up on it.  But I believe my original post was correct.  The non exclusive next year would be around $28m and the exclusive would be around $34m.  So we could pay him the $28m next year or get two 1st round picks.  What I said above has nothing to do with transition tag, correct?

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

Yup.  Just read up on it.  But I believe my original post was correct.  The non exclusive next year would be around $28m and the exclusive would be around $34m.  So we could pay him the $28m next year or get two 1st round picks.  What I said above has nothing to do with transition tag, correct?

Nope. Giving him either version of the franchise tag will cost 34+ mil. The transition tag, which carries no compensation for a non-matched offer sheet, will cost 28+ mil (closer to 29)

[goskins10]

35 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

I could be wrong but I believe the transition and the non exclusive tag are the same thing.  The exclusive tag is what he got this year and would be $34m next year.

 

Here is the break down of options for 2018:

Exclusive Tag - Tag cost - approx. $34M - Kirk cannot negotiate with other teams without redskins approval.

Non-Exclusive Tag - Tag Cost - approx. $34M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. If they do not and Kirk signs with another team the Redskins get 2 1st rd picks unless a sign and trade deal has been made.

Transition Tag - Tag cost - approx. $28M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. But they get no compensation if they don't match the offer and Kirk signs with another team.

 

Here is the reference:  http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/28/kirk-cousins-exclusive-franchise-tag-washington-redskins/

 

[zCommander]

1 minute ago, goskins10 said:

 

Here is the break down:

 

Exclusive Tag - Tag cost - approx. $34M - Kirk cannot negotiate with other teams without redskins approval.

Non-Exclusive Tag - Tag Cost - approx. $34M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. If they do not and Kirk signs with another team the Redskins get 2 1st rd picks unless a sign and trade deal has been made.

Transition Tag - Tag cost - approx. $28M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. But they get no compensation if they don't match the offer and Kirk signs with another team.

 

Here is the reference:  http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/28/kirk-cousins-exclusive-franchise-tag-washington-redskins/

 

 

So if no LTD then non-exc him next year and then don't match the offer and get 2 1st rounders. I kinda like that.

[SoCalSkins]

4 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

So if no LTD then non-exc him next year and then don't match the offer and get 2 1st rounders. I kinda like that.

 

In that scenario he would not sign an offer sheet until after the draft. The two firsts would start in 2019. Typically for trading purposes a future 1st is valued a round less for each year in the future. From a draft chart value standpoint, a first in 2019 and a first in 2020 would be valued as a 2nd and 3rd rd pick on draft day 2018. 

 

That 's what happened with Sean Gilbert for us in the late 90's. At the same time you are freezing 34 million of cap between start of the league year and end of April.

[illone]

Im just happy we get to see kirk do his thing one more year. 

 

Pryor is the type of receiver this team has lacked for years. Would suck to have to pay both of them next year but it's a good gamble because we will know more about Docston after this season...  consistent playoff teams dont win with big money receivers anyways. 

 

Kirk is going to have to put on his big boy pants and learn that you are not going to get along with everyone at the office. Plus I bet his dealings with Brucey are few and far between anyways. Man up do your job and "controll the controllables" as kirk himself would say. 

 

At least 2017 will be worth watching lol

[Birdlives]

I wish they would just sign him already and get over all the bull****. If Bruce Allen is trying to undercut him to get a better deal he needs to get over it. If Snyder is still bitter over Shanny, he needs to get over it. If Kirk is still feeling under appreciated, He needs to get over it. They all need a come to Jesus meeting and just come together. It's what's best for all of them. This notion that we'll be ok without him is bull****. That Kirk will flourish with Shanny Jr in SF is also bull****. 

[zCommander]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

 

In that scenario he would not sign an offer sheet until after the draft. The two firsts would start in 2019. Typically for trading purposes a future 1st is valued a round less for each year in the future. From a draft chart value standpoint, a first in 2019 and a first in 2020 would be valued as a 2nd and 3rd rd pick on draft day 2018. 

 

That 's what happened with Sean Gilbert for us in the late 90's. At the same time you are freezing 34 million of cap between start of the league year and end of April.

 

Ah... The other thought I just had is if no team wants to sign him at 34 mil then the Skins will have to let him go. Which probably will be the outcome. Correct?

[Rufus T Firefly]

14 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

So if no LTD then non-exc him next year and then don't match the offer and get 2 1st rounders. I kinda like that.

There's almost no chance he would sign an offer sheet next year, nor would any team want to give him one. They would both be well aware that they just need to wait a year and he'd be completely free. He could play for about 34.5 mil and then hit the open market as the most expensive commodity in the NFL. At most, a team might offer a much smaller take-it-or-leave-it price to get him a year earlier if they knew they could sign him long-term (San Francisco or LAR, probably).

[zCommander]

1 minute ago, Birdlives said:

I wish they would just sign him already and get over all the bull****. If Bruce Allen is trying to undercut him to get a better deal he needs to get over it. If Snyder is still bitter over Shanny, he needs to get over it. If Kirk is still feeling under appreciated, He needs to get over it. They all need a come to Jesus meeting and just come together. It's what's best for all of them. This notion that we'll be ok without him is bull****. That Kirk will flourish with Shanny Jr in SF is also bull****. 

 

RG3, "Did someone say Jesus meeting?" lol

 

Joking aside, I am with you on this. These are grown men and they need to start acting line one and not like couple of kids fighting over a piece of candy in a candy store!

[RWJ]

Between now and day one of the draft will say a lot about where KC plays this year. After the draft who they bring in as GM. I believe one of the articles I read said that Dan really likes Mayock and he's good friends with Jay so we shall see. So if Mayock or whoever they have between after the draft and July 15 to try and convince KC to sign a LTD. If not LTD, he plays on a 1 year rental and is gone in 2018.  JM 2 cents people.

[SoCalSkins]

2 minutes ago, zskins said:

 

Ah... The other thought I just had is if no team wants to sign him at 34 mil then the Skins will have to let him go. Which probably will be the outcome. Correct?

 

If there was no market for him, he would instantly sign the tag and would be fully guaranteed the moment he signed it. The 34 million is the Redskins number. Any other team can sign him to whatever he negotiates and the Skins would match or get the picks. I doubt a team would be willing to offer something better an a 34 million dollar 1 year deal. That would mean 78 million for Kirk between 2016 and 2018 from the Skins. We would not be allowed to franchise tag him again in 2019. There is 3 time limit on Franchise tag.

[TheGreatBuzz]

35 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Nope. Giving him either version of the franchise tag will cost 34+ mil. The transition tag, which carries no compensation for a non-matched offer sheet, will cost 28+ mil (closer to 29)

 

33 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

 

Here is the break down of options for 2018:

Exclusive Tag - Tag cost - approx. $34M - Kirk cannot negotiate with other teams without redskins approval.

Non-Exclusive Tag - Tag Cost - approx. $34M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. If they do not and Kirk signs with another team the Redskins get 2 1st rd picks unless a sign and trade deal has been made.

Transition Tag - Tag cost - approx. $28M - Kirk can negotiate with other teams. Redskins have right to match the offer. But they get no compensation if they don't match the offer and Kirk signs with another team.

 

Here is the reference:  http://www.denverpost.com/2017/02/28/kirk-cousins-exclusive-franchise-tag-washington-redskins/

 

Exclusive is average of top 5 salaries at that position for the current year.  Non exclusive is for previous 5 years.  So that would make it a good bit below 34 for non exclusive correct?  

 

Thanks for tolorating my apparent dumb ***.

[Rufus T Firefly]

4 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Exclusive is average of top 5 salaries at that position for the current year.  Non exclusive is for previous 5 years.  So that would make it a good bit below 34 for non exclusive correct?  

 

Thanks for tolorating my apparent dumb ***.

No, none of that matters. Since he's already been tagged, it will be based on a percentage raise from this year to next. For each Franchise tag, the rise will be the same amount.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, TheGreatBuzz said:

 

Exclusive is average of top 5 salaries at that position for the current year.  Non exclusive is for previous 5 years.  So that would make it a good bit below 34 for non exclusive correct?  

 

Thanks for tolorating my apparent dumb ***.

 

 

That is true for the first time the player is tagged. But after that it's the greater of the averages you talked about or 2nd yr 120% of his previous salary and then 3rd tag is $144% of his previous salary. Since those totals are higher than the average QB salaries, that's the tag number.

 

I have not been able to find the calculation for the transition tag but I have seen it confirmed to be about $28M for 2018.

46 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Nope. Giving him either version of the franchise tag will cost 34+ mil. The transition tag, which carries no compensation for a non-matched offer sheet, will cost 28+ mil (closer to 29)

 

Do you have a link that shows how the transition tag is calculated? I can find sources quoting the number but cannot find the equation.

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 minutes ago, goskins10 said:

Do you have a link that shows how the transition tag is calculated? I can find sources quoting the number but cannot find the equation.

Found this one:

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/11/kirk-cousins-saga-could-culminate-in-2018-transition-tag/

[TheGreatBuzz]

Gotcha.  Thanks guys.

[goskins10]

2 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Found this one:

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/11/kirk-cousins-saga-could-culminate-in-2018-transition-tag/

 

 

OK, the transition tag is only 120% for even a 3rd tag where the other tags are 144%. Feel better knowing the equation. Thanks!

[JSSkinz]

This says its only a 120% of his current tag number, that's $28.72 mil.

 

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/02/11/kirk-cousins-saga-could-culminate-in-2018-transition-tag/

[Birdlives]

Another point that's weird to me is that Daniel Snyder doesn't see the opportunity in front of him with this contract. By signing Cousins at the  top end he's screwing the other owners but good. Max out that contract and get your guy for 6 years! Let the other owners figure out how to keep their Winstons, Mariottas, Prescotts, and Rodgers. You know their agents will be trying to top your deal.

[Dieselpower44]

I just can't believe the team lets stuff like this get to this point.  A competent front office would have either locked him down or shipped him out.  Instead this front office screws around until the situation is a **** show.  After going years with terrible QB's, you finally get one that is solid and growing into a franchise qb and you shoot yourself in the foot where even if you want them, they no longer want to be here.

 

/tired of it.  It's never going to get better with Dan. 

[Est.1974]

Kirk isn't getting away for nothing before 2019. No chance in Hell.

[goskins10]

For those impatient for a deal and thinking the team is doing something wrong here - following are the players that received the Exclusive Tag since the tags inception and when they signed. I did not do the Non-exclusive as I simply do not have time. If someone wants to do that and they believe it tells a different story, it would probably be a good exercise. But before you do that know I did look at a few random players and the results were pretty much the same. Still, if I have time I may do it later.

 

2007

Dwight Freeney (Colts) - Signed to LTD 7/13/2007

Lance Briggs - (Bears) - Signed 3/1/2008 -Threatened to sit out 2007. Played under tag 2007 then signed a LTD 3/1/2008

 

2008 - Nnamdi Asomugha - (Raiders) - Played on tag 2008. Signed LTD 2/19/2009

 

2009 - Terrell Suggs - (Ravens) - Signed 7/15 (Note: Played under Non-exclusive in 2008 - sound familiar? Note: Sued NFL and won to be designated LB instead DE. High tag number.  

 

2010 - Richard Seymour - (Raiders) - Signed 6/10/2010

 

2011 - Mike Vick - (Eagles) - Signed 8/29/2011 - Had not signed tender. Was sitting out.

 

2012 - Drew Brees (Saints) - Signed 7/13/2012

 

2013, 2014, 2015 no Exclusive Tags given. Too many to research the non-exclusive tags. But random checks showed similar results.

 

2016 - Von Miller - (Broncos) - Signed 7/15/2016

 

2017

Kirk Cousins - (Redskins) - Not signed

La'veon Bell - (Steelers) - Not Signed

 

Asomugha and Suggs played a year on a tag then signed the next year. Lance Briggs announced he was no longer a Bear. He was almost traded to the Redskins - yes us! Rocky McIntosh involved. The rhetoric back and forth between the Saints and Brees and Von Miller and the Broncos was nothing but ugly.

 

The message? What's going on is not a sign there is a problem with the FO. This is business as usual in the NFL. You have to be able to separate the emotional from the business part of this. Emotionally as a fan I would love for there to be a deal done right now. And who knows. Maybe it gets done sooner. But history suggests it will be much closer to the July 15th.

 

These things tend to get done and the deadlines. And the talk back and forth up to a signing is positively ugly. But it's mostly just posturing and rhetoric. This is of course no guarantee that something gets done. But to me the data shows it's much more likely the deal gets done than not. If July 15th passes and there is no deal then it's a problem. But let's see the process through without trashing the team for doing what it's supposed to do.

 

Let me ask this question. If you went to a dealership to buy a car and made an offer that was immediately taken. Would you feel like you got a good deal? If you are being honest the answer is no. You would always wonder if you paid too much. Well, the team while willing to pay what is necessary does not want to pay too much. Kirk's team, while willing to take less than they start with, doesn't want to leave money on the table. It's all part of the negotiating process.

[RomanSkin]

My hypothesis, trade to SF49 for a first pick this year and a second next year,  then we get  Osweiler for the second pick of next year from the Browns. Not that I like this, but this is what i think is going to happen.

[WelshSkinsFan]

1 hour ago, RomanSkin said:

My hypothesis, trade to SF49 for a first pick this year and a second next year,  then we get  Osweiler for the second pick of next year from the Browns. Not that I like this, but this is what i think is going to happen.

 

For that to happen though the 49ers would need to change their stance.  San Francisco has so far made it clear they are not going to trade high picks to get a quarterback and instead seem set on using Hoyer as a bridge and drafting someone this year.  This could be negotiation on their part also but as with most other scenarios discussed regarding Kirk's situation, nothing is likely to happen until the day of the draft.  If a deal does not materialize at that time then the 49ers are probably committing to growing their own and both Kirk and the Redskins can get back to negotiating without outside distractions and at that point I believe a LTD will be struck.

 

It is of course possible the 49ers make a great offer around the draft but nothing so far suggests they are going to do that and it would probably take Kyle going to Lynch and telling him that none of the Quarterbacks in this draft are good enough.  Lynch has a whole roster to build and seems far more interested in getting a QB locked up for 4 years on a rookie wage scale than committing massive cap resources and picks in a trade for a player that is not going to have the pieces around him to win.

 

On Osweiler, the Browns are only asking a third so why give them a second and in any event he is not worth picking up free on a veteran minimum contract let alone trading for.  If Kirk goes there really is no reason not to let Colt hold the fort this year and draft someone for the future, there are cheaper and better veteran options for a backup then Osweiler, not to mention he appears to be a cancer in the locker room if reports out of Houston are true.