The Brexit Thread

[zoony]

This is the kind of anti intellectual thinking that brought the UK to where it is.

Ignoring warnings from economists and the financial markets in the face of overwhelming evidence seems to be a good recipe for how to tank progress and stifle growth.

Well, if you too are going to sit here and say that the US is headed for a recession and the world too, then it is ironic you accuse others of anti intellectualism

The fact is, we don't know the repercussions for global markets and economies and how this will play out. We don't know if the problem will be isolated in the UK or if the broader EU and even the US will slip into recession. Those economists you talk about don't know either.

So don't quote my posts with that bull**** because it's a waste of time and you're making the room dumber.

[Est.1974]

Nobody knows how this will play out. And anyone saying they do know it's going to be ugly or isolated or whatever... Should be ignored

I totally agree .....and if Cameron stands firm at the EU summit tomorrow then we might as well let this baby stew for a few months because it's gonna be a stand off for some time.

[No Excuses]

The fact is, we don't know the repercussions for global markets and economies and how this will play out. We don't know if the problem will be isolated in the UK or if the broader EU and even the US will slip into recession. Those economists you talk about don't know either.

So don't quote my posts with that bull**** because it's a waste of time and you're making the room dumber.

 

"We don't know the repercussions"

 

Ok then. I guess the economists, who does this work for a living and have been near unanimously putting out warning signs and forecasting the economic and financial effects for the last several months are numpties who don't know what they are talking about.

 

I must be imagining the wealth of data that has been put out and repeatedly cited in this thread because "no one knows what will happen". Yeah no ****. But there's a reason we do forecasting and if enough of the public gave a damn, they wouldn't make stupid decisions like this one.

[zoony]

Yea you are imagining. Read the first ****ing article on CNBC that sums up the days finances.

Only thing worse than anti intellectualism is vigilant reactionaries.

[Est.1974]

Meh. The reality is the EU just lost 17% of it's income. It can try to play hardball but it needs income from England to survive.  Let's not pretend England does not hold most of the cards.

Agreed, playing hardball gets them nowhere. We won't trigger article 50 for a few months, the pissing contest will die down and then agreements of some kind will unfold whereby people save face yet nobody gets cut adrift.

Might not actually happen is my honest view, but we'll see.

[No Excuses]

Yea you are imagining. Read the first ****ing article on CNBC that sums up the days finances.

Only thing worse than anti intellectualism is vigilant reactionaries.

I read it, and it doesn't look peachy. And this is also the headline article that they are running simultaneously.

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/06/27/us-markets-may-look-safer-but-its-really-buyer-beware-situation-technician.html

And really looking at a single day seems to be kind of pointless, especially when things don't look al that great to begin with. If you wish to disregard long term economic forecasting than that's fine and there isn't more to say.

[tshile]

Ignoring warnings from economists and the financial markets in the face of overwhelming evidence seems to be a good recipe for how to tank progress and stifle growth.

Financial markets are selfish, over reactionary, and irrational.

I'll take the economists opinion. You can keep the financial markets'.

[Kilmer17]

Not that I agree, but there could be reasons other than economics to support leave.

[No Excuses]

Not that I agree, but there could be reasons other than economics to support leave.

I think there are valid reasons related to immigration. It's just that people who approach this subject from a skeptical stand point do themselves no favors with the kind of language and symbolism they use.

Financial markets are selfish, over reactionary, and irrational.

I'll take the economists opinion. You can keep the financial markets'.

So much of the worlds economy is tied into the financial sector that it's hard not to. And yeah I don't have a high opinion of people in finance either.

[TimmySmith]

Swift? Hah. Do you know how long trade negotiations take?

Ask an expert.

http://faculty.haas.berkeley.edu/arose/MR2Vox.pdf

http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36078092

http://www.vox.com/2016/6/24/12024728/brexit-economy-economists-recession

No one is denying that the UK won't get trade deals done. But considering they'll spend likely close to 10 years at best getting themselves out of this mess and renegotiating all the trade pacts they had, that's absolutely terrible for their economy.

Again, ask the experts.

It's laughable how one sided these articles are.  One would think that the EU is going merrily on it's way while England burns.  The EU desperately needs trade with England.  If the EU doesn't strike deals quickly, the countries will do it on their own and the EU is dead.

[No Excuses]

It's laughable how one sided these articles are. One would think that the EU is going merrily on it's way while England burns. The EU desperately needs trade with England. If the EU doesn't strike deals quickly, the countries will do it on their own and the EU is dead.

The first one isn't an article. It's a simple study looking at a common issue with trade deals. They take a really, really long time to ratify.

All EU countries combined export something like 8% of their goods to the UK. And all member states have to agree to the trade deal as its not a majority vote.

There's a reason why these things take time. Canada-EU trade deal that will be ratified next year has been 7 years in the making.

These are simple facts independent of bias.

[Predicto]

It's laughable how one sided these articles are.  One would think that the EU is going merrily on it's way while England burns.  The EU desperately needs trade with England.  If the EU doesn't strike deals quickly, the countries will do it on their own and the EU is dead.

 

 

Thanks for your input, Mr. Boris Johnson.  

 

 

(Look, no one knows EXACTLY know what will happen but like many others, I am inclined to listen to the experts, and right now the overwhelming majority of the experts seem to disagree with you)

[visionary]

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/747543973946867716

British pound down 3.3% to 1.32 against the U.S. dollar at the end of Monday trading; pound down 11.6% since Brexit result
5:35 PM

 

https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/747521615215333376

BREAKING: Credit rating agency Fitch downgrades UK's credit rating from "AA+" to "AA" with a negative outlook
4:06 PM

Edited June 28, 2016 by visionary

[TimmySmith]

Thanks for your input, Mr. Boris Johnson.  

 

 

(Look, no one knows EXACTLY know what will happen but like many others, I am inclined to listen to the experts, and right now the overwhelming majority of the experts seem to disagree with you)

The Experts that I have read are basing their opinion on starting from scratch.  The trade agreements already exist, it's just a matter as to whether they will be honored or slightly altered after the split.  Or in other words, will the EU cut off it's nose to spite it's face.  I am saying that ultimately they won't.  Because they can't or they will die.

[s0crates]

I'm seeing a lot of talk about "experts." In general, I recommend a bit of caution with that. Of course we should listen to people who know stuff. If I need my car fixed I go to a mechanic. On the other hand, experts can be wrong. Experts denied the Big Bang and continental drift for example.

Not only are experts sometimes wrong, but there is a real danger in giving too much deference to any authority. Consider the Milgram experiment. A guy in a lab coat has a stupifying effect on most people. It's not enough to say, "well he's a scientist, so he must know." You have to remember that people have agendas. Let's not forget what tobacco company experts said.

If you want to know the truth, then you have to be vigilant. Consider the source, examine the evidence, look at the arguments, consider counterarguments, etc. Otherwise it's best to say you don't know.

Edited June 28, 2016 by s0crates

[visionary]

http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/uks-nigel-farage-obama-behaved-disgracefully-by-campaigning-against-brexit-224863

U.K.’s Nigel Farage: Obama behaved ‘disgracefully’ by campaigning against Brexit

 

British Independence Party leader and longtime Brexit supporter Nigel Farage blasted President Barack Obama for weighing in on the British referendum to leave the European Union, negatively contrasting him with Russian leader Vladimir Putin.

 

“Vladimir Putin behaved in a more statesmanlike manner than President Obama did in this referendum campaign. Obama came to Britain, and I think behaved disgracefully, telling us we would be at the back of the queue,” said Farage during an interview Monday on Fox News. "Vladimir Putin maintained his silence throughout the whole campaign.”

 

At a press conference during his visit to the U.K. in April, Obama urged Britons to support remaining in the European Union and warned that their country would move to the "back of the queue" for trade deals if they chose to leave the 28-country union. (Despite a backlash in the U.K. following those comments, the White House stood by them on Friday, noting Obama's interest in completing the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU.)

 

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-britain-eu-hunt-referendum-idUSKCN0ZD2XJ?utm_campaign=trueAnthem:+Trending+Content&utm_content=5771d44604d3011ff2a491e1&utm_medium=trueAnthem&utm_source=twitter

UK cabinet minister sees second EU vote if migration deal struck with Brussels: Telegraph

 

Britain could hold a second referendum on European Union membership if it can broker a deal with the EU to allow full control of its borders, health secretary Jeremy Hunt said in a letter published by the Daily Telegraph on Monday.

 

Hunt said the prime minister who succeeds David Cameron should be given a chance to negotiate with Brussels before Britain hands in its two-year notice to quit the EU, so they can put any deal on migration to the British public.

 

"So before setting the clock ticking we need to negotiate a deal and put it to the British people, either in a referendum or through the Conservative manifesto at a fresh general election," Hunt said.

Edited June 28, 2016 by visionary

[techboy]

On the other hand, experts can be wrong.

"The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet."- Hugh Keough

[SkinsHokieFan]

Why would the EU bother speaking to the UK until article 50 is invoked?

From a leverage stand point, the EU has all of it

Edited June 28, 2016 by SkinsHokieFan

[Bliz]

Here is a good look at the trade problem post Brexit and likely why the Leave campaign is now trying to take its sweet time.

http://www.economist.com/news/britain/21695544-it-would-be-hard-britain-negotiate-good-trade-deals-post-brexit-unfavourable-trade-winds

But what would The Economist know right?

"...which would be hard with tough negotiators like South Korea or Mexico."

well apparently they don't know that Mexico is a pushover. They'll pay for that wall at the drop of a hat once they see what a REAL tough negotiator looks like <eye roll>

[TimmySmith]

Why would the EU bother speaking to the UK until article 50 is invoked?

From a leverage stand point, the EU has all of it

Yes, there is no real discussion until it is invoked.   Treaties can be extended by the EU pretty much ad infinitum if Engand agrees, and they will.  Don't see where leverage will come into play if everyone keeps their head.

[FanboyOf91]

http://qz.com/717494/brexit-is-almost-certain-to-push-hong-kong-into-recession-in-2016/

[visionary]

So Corbyn loses a confidence vote 172-40 and refuses to resign.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/uk-labour-leader-corbyn-refuses-resign-losing-confidence-161524675.html?ref=gs

Edited June 28, 2016 by visionary

[@DCGoldPants]

the violence against minorities happening right now over there is scary. 

[twa]

Why would the EU bother speaking to the UK until article 50 is invoked?

From a leverage stand point, the EU has all of it

 

And if more vote to leave the EU?

 

the fulcrum is mobile

 

add

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/23/these-countries-could-be-next-if-britain-leaves-the-e-u/

 

These countries could be next now that Britain has left the E.U.

Edited June 28, 2016 by twa

[visionary]

https://twitter.com/PickardJE/status/747840394151464960

If Corbyn re-elected he plans rules change to make it easier to remove dissident MPs or even force “mandatory reselection” on all of them.
1:13 PM

 

https://twitter.com/chrisshipitv/status/747848059267219456

NEW: @angelaeagle to challenge Jeremy Corbyn if he does not resign. Most likely to happen tomorrow
1:44 PM

Edited June 28, 2016 by visionary