The "I wish we had gotten that guy!" thread - 2014 Recap at end of thread.

[Thinking Skins]

What's interesting is looking at the guaranteed money in the contracts that the safeties got:

Jairus Byrd: 18.3 million guaranteed (FS)

Donte Whitner: 11 million guaranteed (SS)

T.J. Ward: 7 million guaranteed (SS)

Antoine Bethea: 6.25 million guaranteed (SS)

Malcolm Jenkins: 6 million guaranteed (FS)

Michael Mitchell: 5.25 million guaranteed (FS)

Darrell Stuckey: 1.735 million guaranteed (SS)

Roman Harper: 1.5 million guaranteed (SS)

Louis Delmas: 1 million guaranteed (SS)

Stevie Brown: 1 million guaranteed (SS)

Bernard Pollard: 850K guaranteed (SS)

Nate Allen: 750K guaranteed (SS)

Chris Clemons: 450K guaranteed (SS)

Not sure what that means in terms of the grand scheme of things, but it seems that the majority of the marketplace was SS and/or SS with range to play some FS, which is kinda what the Skins experimented with Meri with last year.

EDIT: I should note that I marked the position just by doing a quick google search of "<name> 'free safety' 'strong safety'" and looked at the first few links. Most of them would say "free safety <name>", "strong safety <name>", or "strong safety <name> who can also play free", or something to that regard. So I'm not claiming 100% accuracy in the positional listing above. Also, those numbers are from overthecap.com

[darrelgreenie]

..but IMO we went into the offseason looking for a FS, we've had SS options here for a while but could never find a FS after #21..

I can't say/don't care to speculate the offseason MO. But the plan SHOULD have been to upgrade the Safety position (both).

 

..If Clemons is a SS who is waiting to be exposed in space then it doesn't really help the team. He may be able to play both, but I remember thinking we should have targeted Mitchell and Byrd because they were known as young FSs on the market...

Scratching my head here, not sure why you would make that speculation since it could apply to ANY S? If Mitchell is a SS who is waiting to get exposed in space then.....

We've actually had this conversation before....

http://es.redskins.com/topic/373956-fa-tjaxdavis-clingan-rj-mccoy-dj-rc-mcglynn-ej-moore-jordan-bmeri-rogers-hatcher-geathers-sharpton-porter-hayward-lauvao-roberts/?p=9768471

 

Another post that listed all the SAFs:

 

Here some stats of SAFs from PFF that I think are meaningful:

SNB-(snaps in box)-Percentage of snaps played within 8 yards of the line of scrimmage is a good way to determine how a SAF plays i.e Free vs Strong.

TE-tackling efficiency-tackles made vs tackles attempted (measure of missed tackles)

PD-passes defensed

INTs-

SNB TE PD INTs

Jarius Byrd........................12.1..................... 19.................2.....................4

Charles Woodson..............12.6.....................6.4................3.....................1

Ryan Clark.........................19.4.....................8.6................1.....................2

Donte Whitner....................21.4.....................29.................6.....................2

Mike Mitchell......................22.7.....................3.3................2.....................4

Meriweather.......................25.5.....................3.8................0.....................2

Chris D. Clemons...............28.1.....................7.9................6.....................1

Antoine Bethea...................37.3....................19.3..............2.....................3

Malcolm Jenkins.................37.7.....................4.6...............2.....................3

TJ Ward..............................65.7......................9.................2.....................2

Surprised to see Whitner didn't play in the box anywhere near as much as I thought.

Whitner plays more of a 1/2 field Safety then a Single Post or 'Centerfield' FS though.

What I'd really like to see is what Haslett / Morris really wants in their FS and SS play. For years I've heard there's no difference between the two, but my take on that now is really that we want two FSs to play back there because we've had two SSs back there last year and while Doughty and Meri improved the tackling, they still couldn't cover TEs over either the short or deep middle and couldn't really play in a single high or a cover two setting.

Haslett has maintained that he wants 2 interchangeable S backs there. BUT like you said recently we've had a bunch of guys that we're strictly SS and would play the 1 guy that could play close to  league average at FS.

 

A tandem like Clark and Clemons for me fits the bill of interchangeable SAF.

[darrelgreenie]

Its neither. I have Clemons ahead of Michtell but would place them on the same tier of talent.

The reason why I like Clemons better may not be clear through stats (although I believe the stats do support my view). In short I think Mitchell is soft and my preference would be to avoid soft players. I watch a lot of Panther's game and Mitchell doesn't strike me as an aggresive nor willing tackler. And that is something that I find purposefully distasteful. And I think he benefited from playing behind one of the best front 7s in football.

But stats:

As you can see Clemons missed fewer tackles thus the higher tackling efficiency rating. Micthell actually missed the second most tackles for a SAF behind Meriweather.

And while Clemons didn't get as many interception he broke up more passes.

He's a much better tackler then Meriweather, he hasn't failed at FS like Meriweather failed in previous stints when he was cut. And Clemon's has more range then Meriweather.

It wouldn't surprise me if the FO is looking to spend in the ballpark of Meriweather and it wouldn't surprise if Clemons won't accept an offer that low.

I think there about 5 SAFs better then what we currently have. The quality of ILB doesn't match the quality of the SAFs as far as ranking i.e. more SAFs will go early then ILB but the SAFs that can help will likely be gone by or in round 4.

[Thinking Skins]

Scratching my head here, not sure why you would make that speculation since it could apply to ANY S? If Mitchell is a SS who is waiting to get exposed in space then.....

We've actually had this conversation before....

http://es.redskins.com/topic/373956-fa-tjaxdavis-clingan-rj-mccoy-dj-rc-mcglynn-ej-moore-jordan-bmeri-rogers-hatcher-geathers-sharpton-porter-hayward-lauvao-roberts/?p=9768471

Yeah I remember this conversation, but I didn't remember how against Clemons I was, I think I softened on him once our other options dried up. But I think this goes back to what we want from a FS and I think Rambo gives me an idea that we care less about something like tackling efficiency, or being "soft" and more about their ability to break up passes. Ideally, we could find somebody like Taylor who can make WRs afraid to catch that pass across the middle and QBs afraid to throw it because he'll get the pic and return it for 6, but I think if we have to choose between a sure tackler and a guy who can cover the deep middle, then we'd go with the later.

And I think that Haslett's idea behind the whole offseason was to build a strong front 7 and pass rush that could make the QB throw the ball under pressure which could increase our FS's stats, like we did with Robinson against Jacksonville.

As far as Clemons vs Meri, I think they're both talented at the position but I wouldn't place my bets on either.

[darrelgreenie]

Clemons is actually good in coverage though, in fact graded out better then Mitchell.

[Thinking Skins]

Clemons is actually good in coverage though, in fact graded out better then Mitchell.

See that's what I question though. "good in coverage" is kinda subjective. Like Has was standing on the table defending Rambo's position in coverage. How do we record a player's position on every play, relative to where they're supposed to play? Sometimes we can get assignments from doing the all22 and stuff, and thats why we have scouts and personnel departments and such, but I wonder if what the fans see (not calling you out, just saying in general) is different than what GMs see. Cause I posted the stats from this offseason in terms of guaranteed money and you see that Clemons wasn't that highly thought of around the league. I mean, he was even cut from this contract. Mitchell OTOH had the 6th most guaranteed money given this offseason. I don't want to say that NFL GMs are without flaw, but maybe "good in coverage" isn't as easy to determine.

[Voice_of_Reason]

As far as the safety position is concerned, the team was putting more stock in P.Thomas being healthy and able to develop and Tanard Jackson being at least available. And clearly they were not expecting (though they should have been) the annual Merriweather suspension.  

 

I don't think Rambo was ever a lock to make the team, but with injuries and suspension, he ended up playing 2 games before being cut.

 

I don't know if any of that was a good plan or not, (probably not), but that's the way it looked to me.  

 

I'm really happy they didn't commit big money to any of the free agents.  Though there were a few in the draft they could have targeted, and didn't.

 

Oh, and claiming Eat-A-Nacho off of waivers only to have him go on IR also was really bad luck there as well.  

 

I think I understand the plan. Though, I gotta say, I never liked it.  And now, I really hate it.  

[darrelgreenie]

See that's what I question though. "good in coverage" is kinda subjective. Like Has was standing on the table defending Rambo's position in coverage. How do we record a player's position on every play, relative to where they're supposed to play? Sometimes we can get assignments from doing the all22 and stuff, and thats why we have scouts and personnel departments and such, but I wonder if what the fans see (not calling you out, just saying in general) is different than what GMs see. Cause I posted the stats from this offseason in terms of guaranteed money and you see that Clemons wasn't that highly thought of around the league. I mean, he was even cut from this contract. Mitchell OTOH had the 6th most guaranteed money given this offseason. I don't want to say that NFL GMs are without flaw, but maybe "good in coverage" isn't as easy to determine.

Basing my assessment of coverage on from what I watched on all-22 last year and from the coverage stats from PFF.

I think either are more then using free agent money to determine coverage ability.

I explained earlier what how Clemons got cut; it wasn't performance related they team got the a player they wanted to keep at a cheaper price.

And as far as looking at free agent desire lets not forget that Brandon Meriweather was a twice cut on the street FA coming off a bad year when the FO picked him up.

For me based on what I've seen on film and researched I can't possibly begin to understand how Meriweather is our starting SS and not Clemons.

[Renegade7]

The whole point of the thread was say who we liked before hand, thus not second guess.

 

And sure we can point out the failures of other organization FAs but that doesn't mean that this organization got it right.

 

Getting it right means finding a viable solution or addressing the position with a young decent player to develop.

The FO decisions at Safety aren't justified because some SAFs didn't pan out.

 

Not every redskins fan is reading this thread, Greenie.  I never said we got everything right, but maybe the premise of this thread is difficult to follow because there's no way we could have. No one does. 

[Paul Cumberland]

Steve Palazzolo ‏@PFF_Steve 1h1 hour ago

Sort by rookies RT @PFF: New filters in the premium section, Here's a look at this year's crop of rookie guards

 

[Voice_of_Reason]

This weekend, I'm going to spend a little time and see if I can dig up some dirt on guys that are doing well and not doing so well, both FA and draft picks, from the OP, which were folks who claimed they "Wish they got that guy" before the season started.

 

My beef has always been Bitonio.  I would have just stood pat and picked the guy. I know that means that we lose out on some combination of Long, Moses or Murphy. 

 

But Bitonio seems like he would have been able to challenge Polumbus from the get-go, and might have a higher ceiling than Moses.  

 

I could be proven wrong, but that was the safe move.  Now, if in 2-3 years the OL is studdish and features Williams, Ribbs, Long and Moses, I'll take that back.

 

And if Murphy replaces Orakpo, then eh, that's good too.

 

I think Murphy might develop into a pretty good overall OLB, who can do some coverage things, and some rush things.  Which would free up Kerrigan to be the primary rush OLB, and Murphy the "other guy." 

 

The problem now is that Orakpo, Murphy and Kerrigan are all rush guys, but you can't rush all of them.  That was just a stupid plan.  Nothing against the players.  Plan was just plain idiotic from the get-go. 

[Paul Cumberland]

My beef has always been Bitonio.  I would have just stood pat and picked the guy. I know that means that we lose out on some combination of Long, Moses or Murphy. 

<snip>

But Bitonio seems like he would have been able to challenge Polumbus from the get-go, and might have a higher ceiling than Moses.  

<snip>

The problem now is that Orakpo, Murphy and Kerrigan are all rush guys, but you can't rush all of them.  That was just a stupid plan.  Nothing against the players.  Plan was just plain idiotic from the get-go. 

 

just from the PFF screen shot above, it appears Bitonio is doing real well for a rookie, albeit at guard....  but yeah, hindsight....

 

as for our olb's just pass rushing, i do seem to recall most of the fan base here praising the idea of the 'unleash' and 'less contain' that was supposed to have held back hasslet's d.... meh....  didn't quite work out against the russell wilson's ro plays....  lol, so yeah...  perhaps 'unleash' and the team you're actually playing should go hand-in-hand....  that, at least for me, is on coaching and coming up with the proper game plan by team...

[Voice_of_Reason]

just from the PFF screen shot above, it appears Bitonio is doing real well for a rookie, albeit at guard....  but yeah, hindsight....

 

as for our olb's just pass rushing, i do seem to recall most of the fan base here praising the idea of the 'unleash' and 'less contain' that was supposed to have held back hasslet's d.... meh....  didn't quite work out against the russell wilson's ro plays....  lol, so yeah...  perhaps 'unleash' and the team you're actually playing should go hand-in-hand....  that, at least for me, is on coaching and coming up with the proper game plan by team...

I'd take guard help or tackle help, I don't care.

 

As far as the whole unleashing thing, it never made one iota of sense to me.  Because then you're committing to rush 5 all the time, which puts a lot of pressure on your secondary to hold up and make tackles.  Which we've seen, isn't exactly it's strong suit.

 

They have 3 OLBs who all are best at rushing the passer.  But when they play base, unless you're blitzing, you're only bringing 1.  So the whole "unleash" thing was stupid.  Orakpo is ALSO your best coverage LB.  So they have to drop him into coverage a lot, because he's better at that than anybody else.  Certainly better than Kerrigan and Murphy.  

 

I'll take it back further: I never understood the Kerrigan pick.  They wanted to get somebody who could pressure the QB from opposite Orakpo, to get rid of double teams. Great idea. But they chose the wrong position.  They needed to look for a DE to do that, not a OLB.  

 

If the coaching staff/FO (Shanahan/Haslett/Allen) had half a brain and understood basic concepts on defense, they would have passed on Kerrigan and picked Watt, who was the best pass-rushing DE available at that pick.  And that's not even really with the benefit of hindsight.  Even if Watt had busted, the plan of getting  a pass-rushing DE to compliment your pass-rushing OLB makes sense. I could live with a bust in that position IF it was picked based on a good plan, at the right position. 

 

The plan of getting 2 OLB pass rushers, and knowing that some significant % of time you're going to have to drop one into coverage is stupid.

 

Then to exacerbate the problem by picking a THIRD pass-rushing OLB was just completely insane.  Unless they did it with the full knowledge that they're going to part ways with either Orakpo or Kerrigan, or both.  In which case, ok, I get it. But I think they could have done better.  

 

EDIT: Shanahan doesn't understand defense and specifically defensive personnel decisions.  Remember when Denver just kept signing Cleveland Browns castoffs?  And people were like, "whaaaaa?"  I'll go to my grave saying the guy is 3 things:

1. An absolutely odious human being and terrible manager.

2. An absolute offensive genius.

3. Completely clueless on how to build a defense.  

[darrelgreenie]

Terrance Brooks and Timmy Jernigan making an impact for the Ravens.

[darrelgreenie]

My draft:

Selecting from 47: Timmy Jernigan

66: Morgan Moses (armed with full knowledge Dez Southward or Christian Kirksey)

79: Terrence Brooks (Gabe Jackson if Dez Southward was selected above)

102: Martavis Bryant

142: Avery Williamson

186: Lache Seastrunk

217: Seantrel Henderson/ Yamin Smallwood

Just re-posting to avoid the whole 'second guess' mumbo, this was from 13 May.

[DogofWar1]

The thing with Bitonio, is that I had him pegged as an immediate RG upgrade, with the potential to swing outside to RT in later seasons.

 

It feels good to be right, but bad for the wrong team.

 

Similar thing with Bryant.  He is lighting it up for the Steelers right now.  Admittedly, it took him half a season and DJax softens the blow, but it's always very bittersweet when your pet picks pan out for different teams.

 

Oh well.

[nemocystem]

Put me down for Bitonio & Borland. Outside of Deone Buchanon, these were my 2 favorites for 2/3 had we stayed put.

Borland owned the Gnats today...just figgin' took their grill out their mouths & walked off with their wives.

So disgusted...Trent Murphy, Moses, & Long & they still don't add up to Bitonio or Borland...AND WE COULD HAVE HAD BOTH!!!

[PartyPosse]

If you can judge an entire draft class based on 10 games then good for you.

[nemocystem]

If you can judge an entire draft class based on 10 games then good for you.

Nah...i'll leave that to Gruden. He gets paid all that money to make those decisions & has weighed those players against our calamatous alternative options & has been found wanting. Bitonio will make the Pro Bowl this year, & Borland may do the same if he keeps that up.

I'd say that's a fair enough sample to know whether the pie is good enough to buy. But let's play this out....i'd be willing to bet a substantial amount of money that not seeing Moses or Long on the field considering those who play in their stead is indicative to telling both players they need to start looking at other professions.

[Gallen5862]

http://www.chicagotribune.com/sports/football/bears/chi-bears-marc-mariani-ahmad-dixon-20141118-story.html

 

Bears sign returner Marc Mariani, waive safety Ahmad Dixon

 

 

 

 

To make room for Mariani, the Bears waived safety Ahmad Dixon. He made four special teams tackles and recovered a fumble in five games for the Bears this season. He was signed off the Vikings’ practice squad in Week 2.

[PartyPosse]

Nah...i'll leave that to Gruden. He gets paid all that money to make those decisions & has weighed those players against our calamatous alternative options & has been found wanting. Bitonio will make the Pro Bowl this year, & Borland may do the same if he keeps that up.

I'd say that's a fair enough sample to know whether the pie is good enough to buy. But let's play this out....i'd be willing to bet a substantial amount of money that not seeing Moses or Long on the field considering those who play in their stead is indicative to telling both players they need to start looking at other professions.

No it's that some times players take longer to develop. Both Long and Moses were seen as projects with immense talent. 

 

Forget it, why am I arguing with someone who clearly has no idea about the development of a football player? It's funny, if someone doesn't put up HOF numbers by game 10 then they're clearly going to be busts and out of football before the next season. 

 

I'm amazed RG3 lasted as long here as did with such impatience.

[FrFan]

Twice we traded down and paid the price for it. We missed JJ Watt, Bitonio and Borland. This team seriously needs to address the scouting department and the draft decision process.

[PartyPosse]

Twice we traded down and paid the price for it. We missed JJ Watt, Bitonio and Borland. This team seriously needs to address the scouting department and the draft decision process.

We traded back and got Kerrigan, Hankerson, Helu . The team that took our pick took Blaine Gabbert one pick ahead of Houston. Ponder went one after. Kerrigan is a probowl player. Give it a rest already. We did fine that year.

[Voice_of_Reason]

We traded back and got Kerrigan, Hankerson, Helu . The team that took our pick took Blaine Gabbert one pick ahead of Houston. Ponder went one after. Kerrigan is a probowl player. Give it a rest already. We did fine that year.

I'll say this until my dying day: the Kerrigan pick was the stupidest (not worst) pick of the Shanahan draft classes. Showed that the combination of he, Haslett and Allan had no idea how to build a 3-4 defense. They went out and got a second pass-rushing OLB, and I guess didn't realize that meant you'd have to drop one if them into coverage 70% of the time when they were on the field together

Instead of picking up the best pass rushing DL they could find, who wouldn't pose that schematic challenge.

I love Kerrigan. But the pick proved that the FO/coaching staff was completely clueless on how to build a 3/4 defense.

They compounded that this year by picking Murphy. Though I can live with that pick if the justification is that they knew they were going to get rid if either Kerrigan, Orakpo or both and wanted to be proactive.

Still didn't love the pick. But can understand it.

[darrelgreenie]

I'll say this until my dying day: the Kerrigan pick was the stupidest (not worst) pick of the Shanahan draft classes. Showed that the combination of he, Haslett and Allan had no idea how to build a 3-4 defense. They went out and got a second pass-rushing OLB, and I guess didn't realize that meant you'd have to drop one if them into coverage 70% of the time when they were on the field together

Instead of picking up the best pass rushing DL they could find, who wouldn't pose that schematic challenge.

I love Kerrigan. But the pick proved that the FO/coaching staff was completely clueless on how to build a 3/4 defense.

I said this at the time and also didn't like the Jenkins pick because even at Clemson he was a run stuffer not a upfield interior rush DL.

Of course everyone told me I was wrong.