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***2021-2022 NBA Season Thread***


RonArtest15

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He went up off his left foot to go under the basket and dunk it from the other side with his right hand. He did that to shield the ball from Terrence Jones. Certainly there was a time when that dunk wouldn't have been hard for him, but that is a deceptively hard dunk. I bet he's fine if he goes up off his right foot.

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Wild Prediction Time:

MVP = Kevin Durant

DPOY = Anthony Davis

ROY = Jahlil Okafor

6MOY = Iggoudala

COY = Randy Wittman!

MIP = Jabari Parker

WC All Star Starters:

G: Steph Curry

G: Russell Wetbrook

F: Kevin Durant

F: Blake Griffin

F: Anthony Davis

EC All Star Starters:

G: John Wall

G: Kyrie Irving

F: LeBron James

F: Paul George

F: Andre Drummond

WC Seeds:

1.) San Antonio - 62 wins

2.) Golden State - 61 wins

3.) Oklahoma City - 59 wins

4.) Houston - 57 wins

5.) LA Clippers - 57 wins

6.) Memphis - 55 wins

7.) New Orleans - 48 wins

8.) Utah - 45 wins

EC Seeds:

1.) Cleveland - 63 wins

2.) Washington - 54 wins

3.) Atlanta - 52 wins

4.) Chicago - 50 wins

5.) Toronto - 49 wins

6.) Miami - 48 wins

7.) Milwaukee - 45 wins

8.) Indiana - 44 wins

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You think Cleveland is getting to 63 wins with Kyrie out for that extended time? I think they will be in the 50's.

 

I think low 50's.  I don't even think they are a lock for being the #1 seed in the East, or making it to the NBA Finals.

 

Lebron is going to rest/coast some nights.  They also have a big injury to deal with having Shump on the shelf for a while. 

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DPOY - Anthony Davis?

 

The voters might well do something this silly, but in reality Davis is not an elite defender (although he probably will  become one someday).  His athleticism and recovery speed are incredible, his ESPN highlights are fantastic, but his court awareness is bad.  He gets fooled all the time and spends half the game in no mans land while his man scores behind him. 

 

Rudy Gobert is a much better defensive big man than Davis is.  So is Dwight Howard.  If you want more of a jack of all trades DPOY, you go with Kawhi or Draymond.     

 

My prediction is Gobert.

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DPOY - Anthony Davis?

 

The voters might well do something this silly, but in reality Davis is not an elite defender (although he probably will  become one someday).  His athleticism and recovery speed are incredible, his ESPN highlights are fantastic, but his court awareness is bad.  He gets fooled all the time and spends half the game in no mans land while his man scores behind him. 

 

Rudy Gobert is a much better defensive big man than Davis is.  So is Dwight Howard.  If you want more of a jack of all trades DPOY, you go with Kawhi or Draymond.     

 

My prediction is Gobert.

 

Nerlens Noel

 

5th in block and 9th in steals last year.  first and 2nd after the all star break.

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You think Cleveland is getting to 63 wins with Kyrie out for that extended time? I think they will be in the 50's.

Oh I thought he was supposed to be ready early in the season. How long is he supposed to be out for? If it's a long time, then I'm going to take Kyrie off my EC All Star prediction and replace him with someone shocking.

Also, I'll lower my win prediction if they don't extend Tristan Thompson. But I've been assuming they will.

Iff they get Thompson signed and Kyrie makes it back soon, then I think that team is going to have incredible chemistry left over from a dominant finish to last season and the Finals run.

But if those things don't happen, then I'm with the rest of you all, low to mid 50's wins.

I think the Bulls take a step back this year. 42 wins, tops.

I don't really know what to make of them with the new coach. But ultimately, I don't think they fall back that far. Their team has been together for a long time and almost have that late PP/KG era Celtics-like grizzledness where they'll always be in the mix for a mid seed.

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but in reality Davis is not an elite defender (although he probably will  become one someday).

I think someday is now. It's his fourth year, the game is going to be slowed down for him now. There isn't a more talented defensive player in the league outside of maybe Nerlens Noel.

 

Rudy Gobert is a much better defensive big man than Davis is.  So is Dwight Howard.  If you want more of a jack of all trades DPOY, you go with Kawhi or Draymond.     

 

My prediction is Gobert.

Gobert is a marginally better rim protector than Davis, a notably better rebounder, but he's not defending space like Davis. Thus far AD has struggled to maintain the balance of effort on both sides of the court that young superstars shouldering the offensive load for their team always struggle to maintain. But eventually the greatest ones settle in and defend to their potential. I think this is when it happens for Davis. If not, it'll happen in year five.

But I also think Gobert could be his biggest competition for the award. The only thing giving me pause with Davis is that players only win DPOY when their teams are great defensive units. And usually DPOY winners have another guy in front of or behind them that are also DPOY candidates or first team all NBA defense. I don't see any other defenders on New Orleans. Utah has Elijah Millsap (if they play him), and Exum also has the potential to be a terrific defensive player (if he's not an outright bust).

Green and Leonard are safer picks, but I have a really hard time seeing the award go to a non-big man two years in a row.

Jimmy Butler is a sleeper for the DPOY award too. He'll have a stout front line behind him and he's going in to his fifth year. But I'll have to see what kind of a system and rotation Hoiberg runs to get a feel for how good their defense is going to be.

Nerlens Noel

 

5th in block and 9th in steals last year.  first and 2nd after the all star break.

I considered him. But the problem for him is his team won't be any good and I think they'll struggle to defend in spite of his brilliance. His center is going to be totally inexperienced and wide-eyed on D. And he doesn't have any perimeter defenders to guard the three ball and keep penetrating players from teeing off on him in the paint. Covington is pretty good, but Jakarr Sampson is a foul machine, and none of their guards can play defense. Noel is going to be on his own. He'll be a perennial candidate down the line, but Philly needs to get better first.

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Gobert is a marginally better rim protector than Davis, 

 

 

Wait, what?  Statistically, the top three rim protectors in the NBA last year were Whiteside, Bogut and Gobert.

 

Davis was not in the top 50 in the NBA

 

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

I like how no one argued against my COY award prediction though  :)

 

Seven months ago that would have been the most outlandish prediction by far.

 

 

Oh - I thought you were just making a joke with that one.   :P

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Wait, what?  Statistically, the top three rim protectors in the NBA last year were Whiteside, Bogut and Gobert.

 

Davis was not in the top 50 in the NBA

 

http://nyloncalculus.com/stats/rim-protection/

That comes down to role. Davis spends much more time outside the paint defensively.

He's probably the best or second best natural shot blocker in the NBA after Noel. Put him in a role like Bogut's or Noah's and he would average like four blocks a game.

 

 

Oh - I thought you were just making a joke with that one.   :P

I was actually serious. There have been some real dogs that have won COY. The formula for picking the winner of the award is pretty close to: Actual wins - widely predicted win total before the season. Then add points for high playoff seeding.

I'm reading a lot of national sports writers predicting the Wizards to win 44-45 games. Marc Stein had them at like eighth in the Eastern Conference. Vegas projected the wins at 46.5 I think. They'll probably finish with close to ten more wins than that and be a top three seed. So check on the "way more wins than predicted" box.

And there is going to be a really powerful narrative about how Randy revolutionized the offense in the offseason to go small and build "Golden State East" that eeeeevery single commentary team is going to mention whenever their team plays the Wizards. And the Wizards are going to have a strikingly different offense from last year, even though they're just catching up with what the good teams in the West have been doing, and specifically, copying Golden State. It's an easy narrative, and nobody is going to care how terrible he was before.

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That comes down to role. Davis spends much more time outside the paint defensively.

 

 

 

Yes, he is.  And most of the time he's not supposed to be.   He's going for a block 18 feet from the basket, and 2 seconds later the man he is supposed to be covering is dunking the ball behind his back.  

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Last I saw was that Kyrie is out indefinitely. Possibly returning in Jan-Feb.

Jesus. I thought he was coming back in November. That is a major blow.

Nevermind about the Cavs winning 60+ games and Kyrie starting the All Star game then.

I also just saw a post on RealGM that says Tristan Thompson's contract holdout is supposed to last well into the season.

http://basketball.realgm.com/wiretap/239433/Windhorst-Tristan-Thompson-Holdout-Likely-To-Go-Well-Into-Regular-Season

So I have no idea what to make of the Cavs now.

My new pick to start the AS game? BRADLEY BEAL!

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If Bosh and Wade can stay healthy (knock the hell on wood), I don't see Miami finishing any lower than 5. Can't wait to see how Bosh, Whiteside and Winslow mesh on the court.

I had them at three originally. But I looked at the win total from last season, and realized I had them making a 12 win jump from last year. That's just too much of a jump for me. They didn't really add anyone that could account for a big new chunk of wins. A full(ish) season from Wade, Dragic, Whiteside, Deng, and Bosh would mean a pretty big jump in wins. Maybe even a double digit bump. But I'm not sure if it's reasonable to expect that.

I could easily see them finishing fourth in the conference. Toronto and Chicago are looking shaky this season. Toronto could implode and fire Casey and miss the playoffs. But their division is sooo bad that someone is going to come out of it with a good amount of wins by virtue of playing 16 JV games. Meanwhile the Southeast is top heavy with the Wizards and Atlanta looking like 50 win teams.

Now that I'm realizing the problems Cleveland has right now, that Central division looks crazy. I could see all five teams making the playoffs and I think four of them actually will. It also wouldn't shock me if the winner of the Titanic division is the eight seed.

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Matt Barnes' craziness is like wine, just gets better the older he gets. I hope he never retires.

Though I admit, I'm a little disappointed after reading the story. It would have been so much better if he drove from Memphis to LA to confront Fisher...like 4 days later. That would have been so Matt Barnesy of him.

Fisher is a big dude, jacked, so props to Barnes for going toe to toe there.

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