RonArtest15

***2019-2020 NBA Season Thread***

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Capela is a 25 year old no-skill energy big.  He's got about two seasons left in those legs before he starts declining.  You always want to get out early with bigs like that, not come in late.  Once they stop being more athletic than everyone else, they don't have a suite of skills to fall back on and their point and rebound production drops.

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36 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

 

Agreed - two Houston first rounders are worthless since they won't be lottery picks.

 

The Houston picks have value because Harden is 30, Butler is 30 and Paul is tomb mold.  Couple of ankles and the train is gonna derail.

 

Philly’s picks have value because Embiid is glass and Simmons is a fraud.  

 

Add in the inevitable Wiz lotto picks and you can stack the roster by 2022.

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The deal doesn't make sense for the Wizards.  They need younger and more valuable long term assets out of a Beal trade.

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, I think people are under estimating the value of Capela to the Rockets.  They'd miss him on defense and offense.  They would be completely maxed out with the Harden, Butler, and Paul contracts so they'd have no clear way to replace him.  The two picks would presumably be 2020 and 2022.  Without Capela, I'm not sure they are 50 win team next year and certainly not in 2022.

 

The Wizards would presumably then flip Capela and Gordon for other picks if that's the way you wanted to go.  Capela's got 3 more reasonable years on his contract and I'm pretty sure any trade of him would also mean acquiring his Bird rights so he has value.

 

The value to the Wizards is that sometimes you get more for breaking something up and then dealing the smaller pieces rather than making the one big trade because any given team only has so many assets that they can trade.

 

You've picked up two first round picks from Houston.  Capela gets you another first round pick of reasonable value and Gordon gets you a first round pick with some pretty heavy protections or a collection of 2nds.

 

One team isn't likely to give up as much straight up for Beal.

 

Beal isn't AD, and you aren't really taking on any garbage salary (Capela has more value in the NBA than Ingram, Hart, and Ball combined).

 

Maybe the Sixers have to throw in a future 1st round pick, but it isn't that bad of deal for the Wizards.

 

Houston is the real question mark IMO.

Edited by PeterMP

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Posted (edited)

I will say, if I'm the Wizards the picks from Houston have to come with no protections.

 

It can't be the 2020 and 2022 pick with top 5 protections.  There's gotta be the upside that the Rockets completely fall apart and I end up with one of the best players in those drafts.

Edited by PeterMP
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Trading Beal for that return makes them older for the trouble of two low value non lottery picks.  That is not the return they are looking for.  I guarantee you they would never make that trade.

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It also doesn't matter that Beal isn't Anthony Davis.  Beal has a market.  His agent isn't Rich Paul and he's got two years left on his deal.  The Lakers were the only trade partner for New Orleans.

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Posted (edited)
45 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

Trading Beal for that return makes them older for the trouble of two low value non lottery picks.  That is not the return they are looking for.  I guarantee you they would never make that trade.

 

I obviously don't know if they will trade Beal, but if they do, they will not get more than 4 first round picks that are not likely to be lottery picks.

 

(where Capela + Gordon could be traded for at least a 1st round pick with some protections so in that trade you are really getting 3 first round picks and I've said the Sixers might have to throw in a pick.  And again, the Wizards would presumably move Capela and Gordon for picks.)

 

Getting a clear single lottery pick for Beal is going to be difficult because teams that are clearly headed to the lottery are not normally trading them for veteran players.

Edited by PeterMP

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8 minutes ago, StillUnknown said:

 

Even with the injury, some team will probably offer him a max deal

 

He's got to sign a long term deal if he can.

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Im gonna miss smug Golden St

 

Think this was the last of that. They really thought this dude, after hearing all that "We dont need you" **** all year and coming back only to just wreck his whole future, was gonna come back because they said so?

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I'm not going to predict that Durant leaves Golden State until he actually agrees to terms with someone else.  They can offer him a longer deal with more money than anyone else, and he wins championships with them.

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1 hour ago, PeterMP said:

 

I obviously don't know if they will trade Beal, but if they do, they will not get more than 4 first round picks that are not likely to be lottery picks.

 

(where Capela + Gordon could be traded for at least a 1st round pick with some protections so in that trade you are really getting 3 first round picks and I've said the Sixers might have to throw in a pick.  And again, the Wizards would presumably move Capela and Gordon for picks.) 

  

Getting a clear single lottery pick for Beal is going to be difficult because teams that are clearly headed to the lottery are not normally trading them for veteran players. 

 

The Wizards have three centers that can't be easily moved.  They won't add another one, either via trade or free agency.  And they don't make trades to quickly flip players in subsequent deals.  They trade directly for rotation players they want.

 

I also think you're overestimating the ease and value of flipping rotation players individually compared to dealing a star.  A rotation player like Capela, once dealt, is the kind of asset that depreciates rapidly.

 

The only worthwhile deal the Wizards would make involving Beal is for lottery picks and/or rookie contracts who've shown promise.

 

And Beal's value is going to climb at least until the trade deadline, provided he doesn't get injured.  Next season's free agent class sucks, and the teams that got left out the free agent hunt this summer are going to have assets and room to make deals.

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Posted (edited)

I've read that KD can get more and only more with GS. They can offer 5 yr 221 mil. I thought other teams are locked I to 4yr 164 mil deals (unless a sign amd trade are done).

 

I'd still bet KD and Klay sign the max deals with the Dubs.

 

Joe Lacob (the Dubs majority owner) also has a net worth of $3bil, a new arena opening in September, and has shown a willingness to spend. If KD leaves it will only be for less money and other things.

Edited by The Evil Genius

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Just now, The Evil Genius said:

KD can get more and only more with GS. They can offer 5 yr 221 mil. I thought other teams are locked I to 4yr 164 mil deals (unless a sign amd trade are done).

  

I'd still bet KD and Klay sign the max deals with the Dubs. 

 

The CBA reform nerfed sign and trades.  The only way a player can sign a five year max with 8% raises is to stay with his current team.  Sign and trades are restricted to four year deals with 5% raises.  It's a big difference on super max deals like Durant is eligible for.  The other thing is sign and trade salary matching with teams who are over the cap (like what the Rockets are trying to do with Jimmy Butler) is very difficult.

 

I bet they sign with the Warriors too.  KD's market has basically been winnowed down to the Warriors, the Knicks, and the Nets.  And I have a hard time seeing him sacrifice a lot of guaranteed money to pick New York over what he already has.

 

Would anyone here leave 50+ million dollars on the table to go play in New York with Kemba Walker or Kyrie Irving?  I wouldn't.

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It's a shame the Wiz don't have a GM to show KD a 5 year plan for KD2DC to be a legit thing. Wall/Beal/KD/a capable Rui/C FA(?) would be a top contender in the East.

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1 minute ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

It's a shame the Wiz don't have a GM to show KD a 5 year plan for KD2DC to be a legit thing. Wall/Beal/KD/a capable Rui/C FA(?) would be a top contender in the East.

 

Can we offer KD a 10 year deal with ownership stakes in Monumental sports?  Asking for a friend.

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I think all of us non-Golden State fans were hoping Durant would leave this summer, and that we started taking it for granted that he would, but that it was wishful thinking.  And even if he might have been leaning towards leaving at one point, I think the severity of his injury changed things for him.  He's got to sign a 5 year max or else risk never getting another offer of one again.

 

I think he'll get back to being an All Star in 2020-2021 for Golden State, but that he'll no longer be a top three player like he was.  I think they'll be a solid 50 win-ish team next season, but that the championship path will be wide open.  They could win it, but so could the Lakers, Clippers (if they sign Kawhi), Jazz, Nuggets, Thunder, Pacers, Rockets, Bucks, 76ers, Raptors (if Kawhi stays), and probably some other surprise team that's about to make a jump that we didn't anticipate, in a similar way to the Bucks this season.  For one year, we're going to get arguably the most wide open championship race in a non strike/lock out shortened season in NBA history.

 

I think Kawhi and Cousins are the two most impactful free agency wild cards.  Kawhi can tank the Raptors' abiltiy to contend by leaving and simultaneously elevate someone else to contention.  I'm not sure anyone else has that effect.  And I think Cousins will have a profound effect on Golden State's season.  He might need to just take the money, if someone offers him significant annual value.  But if he stays in Golden State, he could help them get back the Finals.

2 minutes ago, Barry.Randolphe said:

It's a shame the Wiz don't have a GM to show KD a 5 year plan for KD2DC to be a legit thing. Wall/Beal/KD/a capable Rui/C FA(?) would be a top contender in the East. 

 

The Wizards don't have cap space.  Realistically, the most they'll be able to offer a free agent is the non taxpayer MLE.

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Posted (edited)
37 minutes ago, stevemcqueen1 said:

 

The Wizards have three centers that can't be easily moved.  They won't add another one, either via trade or free agency.  And they don't make trades to quickly flip players in subsequent deals.  They trade directly for rotation players they want.

 

I also think you're overestimating the ease and value of flipping rotation players individually compared to dealing a star.  A rotation player like Capela, once dealt, is the kind of asset that depreciates rapidly.

 

The only worthwhile deal the Wizards would make involving Beal is for lottery picks and/or rookie contracts who've shown promise.

 

And Beal's value is going to climb at least until the trade deadline, provided he doesn't get injured.  Next season's free agent class sucks, and the teams that got left out the free agent hunt this summer are going to have assets and room to make deals.

 

Capela isn't a rotational player.  He's a legit rim defending, rim running, pick and roll machine starting 5 in this league.  There's only a handful of teams where he's not a starter (and the Wizards aren't one of them), and he absolutely starts for several playoff teams that would give you a protected #1 pick for him.

 

Who might even have more upside and growth in his game because he's still pretty young and that's all he's really been asked to do in Houston.

 

You could absolutely get a protected 1st round pick for him.

 

Gordon is a rotational player.

 

In general, I disagree with your assessment of the Wizards direction.  The most worthwhile deal for the Wizards is future picks that would put them in a position to potentially be competitive when Wall's contract clears.  Spend the next two years tanking with the idea that you'll have some young players and if not a playoff team a clear future playoff team with cap space when Wall's contract clears.

 

My larger point was what was the market for Beal.  Maybe the Wizards don't make the trade, but that's reasonable value for Beal.

Edited by PeterMP

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1 minute ago, PeterMP said:

Capela isn't a rotational player.  He's a legit rim defending, rim running, pick and roll machine starting 5 in this league.  There's only a handful of teams where he's not a starter (and the Wizards aren't one of them).

 

He's a very good player.  2.8 VORPs is not going to move the needle the way Beal does though.  There is a school of thought that low-skill energy centers like Capela are the running backs of the NBA.  They play an important role but are so replaceable that they don't have much market value.  The market for Beal is so much bigger and more robust than for Capela.  So if we're hinging the value of Beal's return on flipping Capela--which we are, because those Rockets picks are not valuable at all--then it makes much, much more sense to just deal Beal for long term assets we actually want to keep.

 

Gordon's trade value is as ballast to everyone but contenders, who probably don't have valuable draft picks and/or rookie contracts to give in return.

 

The Wizards center situation is such that they won't give up value to add a player like Capela, even if he's a clear upgrade.  They like Thomas Bryant and they're going to spend some money to bring him back.  And then they have a tremendous pair of anchors in the Mahinmi and Howard contracts.  If they added Capela without getting rid of those contracts, they would likely end up having 45+ million in salary committed to the center position, and only two guards, and three recent draft picks at forward. 

 

Factor in that ownership definitely won't pay luxury tax this year, and it's an untenable balance.  They would struggle to fill in the lion's share of the roster with NBA caliber talent.

 

The Wizards also don't value the center position that highly, they like to run forwards at the five and play one traditional center about 25-28 minutes a night.  They're just going to give Bryant those minutes and fill out the rest of the team with guards and forwards.

 

The Wizards are going to be bad this year, no matter what.  But I don't think they'll completely give up on competing in the near term.  Not unless a truly worthwhile package comes back in exchange for Beal.

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