SOW| Shanahan Is The Only Coach To Draft A First Round Pro Bowler Every Year Since 2010

[rd421]

Of the fifteen current NFL head coaches who have been with their team since 2010, only one has produced a Pro Bowl player in the first round of each of those years. Guess who? I’ll give you a hint: he’s a two-time Super Bowl winner who many people claimed wasn’t any good as a personnel guy.

As the Washington Redskins prepare to enter their first of two consecutive drafts without a first round pick, you will be hard pressed to find anyone doubting whether Mike Shanahan will be able to make the 2013 Draft a success. That’s because, since arriving in Washington, arguably no team has had more success than the Washington Redskins, especially in the first round.

Through three seasons of first round picks, Shanahan has yet to miss.

In three seasons as Vice President of Football Operations, a title besmirched by his predecessor, Mike Shanahan has silenced the critics who slammed the organization for giving him final say over all personnel decisions, including draft picks.

For a franchise that had become notorious for throwing away draft picks in favor of acquiring “name” players, the Mike Shanahan Era has been a breath of fresh air. Shanahan has found a way to not only hit big on first round selections, but to find key contributors in the later rounds as well. Perry Riley, Leonard Hankerson, Alfred Morris – all “late round” selections who have become building blocks of the future of this organization.

With the success Shanahan has had later in the draft, it is pretty easy to overlook just how good he has been on his day one selections since 2010.

In 2010–owning the fourth overall pick–Shanahan was widely expected to pick an offensive lineman. The hot name attached to the Redskins was Russell Okung, a prototypical left tackle who the pundits said was sure to be a perennial pro bowler and help restore the legendary Hogs of old. When Shanahan opted to pass on Okung in favor of Trent Williams, the reception was not exactly positive. Williams had a pre-draft reputation of being a lazy player that didn’t take the game very seriously. Some experts went as far as labeling Williams a bust in the making, claiming picks like Williams would cause Shanahan to be run out of DC like he had been in Denver over picks like this.

The experts were largely wrong. Though Trent Williams did miss time in 2011 due to a suspension for violating the league’s substance abuse policy, he has otherwise been everything you want in a top five pick and more. The lazy kid from Oklahoma who didn’t care about the game has become the standard for left tackles in today’s NFL. Williams’ strength, speed, and mean streak have earned him the title of captain for two consecutive years as well as a Pro Bowl in 2012. Not bad for a guy projected to bust.

Then, after the McNabb project failed on an absolutely epic level, the Redskins HAD to draft a quarterback with the tenth overall pick in the 2011 draft, right?

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[Hiro]

It really is amazing. Trent was an absolute grand slam for a top 5 pick, and Ryan is really coming along as an elite linebacker in the 3-4. RG3 .. nuff said.

It's how the draft is supposed to be. A 1st rounder becomes a cornerstone, and you have contributors coming from the late rounds. I will say though, while Shanahan is making the final calls, the quality of our picks has to be credited to Scott Campbell and Morocco Brown heading a fine scouting department. I love this front office.

[DaGoonie55]

Great write up. Trent, Perry, Ryan, Griff, Almo,....man what a brilliant draft record. Not to mention a few others that may come around and shine...not too shabby. I'm so excited for draft day.

HAIL!!!!!!

[superozman]

Refreshing to see he's the only 1...and going 3-3 on first rounders is tough anymore!

However, maybe I am overreacitng, but I dont think Hanktime is a "building block"...

[Hiro]

Double Post, disregard.

[rd421]

Refreshing to see he's the only 1...and going 3-3 on first rounders is tough anymore!

However, maybe I am overreacitng, but I dont think Hanktime is a "building block"...

When you look at Hankerson's stats from last year he had as many opportunities and yards as any other receiver. He clearly needs to work on the drops but he made as much or more impact than Jshua Morgan in 2012.

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

This got me thinking about unusual ways to quantify what Ryan Kerrigan brings to the table. There are so few stats available for Trent Williams that there's not much to talk about. RG3 is self-explanatory, so here's my attempt at justifying Ryan Kerrigan.

Ryan Kerrigan is averaging 3 forced fumbles a season. He's currently tied for 12th in Redskins history for forced fumbles(however I'm unsure when we started tracking forced fumbles for our team, see below).

1. Charles Mann - 17
   
2. Ken Harvey - 13
   
3. Wilber Marshall - 13
   
4. Marcus Washington - 10
   
5. Kenard Lang - 9
   
6. Andre Carter - 8
   
7. London Fletcher - 8
   
8. Rocky McIntosh - 8
   
9. Bruce Smith* - 8
   
10. Sean Taylor - 8
    
11. Marco Coleman - 7
    
12. Ryan Kerrigan - 6
    
13. LaRon Landry - 6
    
14. LaVar Arrington - 6
    
15. Brian Orakpo - 6
    
16. Rich Owens - 6
    
17. Marvcus Patton - 6
    

He's also tied for 10th in the NFL for most forced fumbles since 2011.

----------------------------------------

So when going back and trying to find out how long we've been doing it, the oddity appears to be Charles Mann. Charles Mann has a registered FF every year since 1983. Yet no other Redskin has a registered FF until Barry Wilburn joins him in the FF column in 1985 and 1986. In 1987, it looks like Charles Mann is again, the only Redskin to register a Forced Fumble.

In 1988, Wilbur Marshall joins Mann as the only 2 Redskins to register a FF. Same thing in 1989 and 1991. In 1990 and 1992, we still only have three guys forcing a fumble.

It seems like the forced fumble stat isn't reported for most of our players until somewhere around the early-mid 1990's. So despite Kerrigan being up there in Redskins history for FF's, the list only really goes back 18 or 19ish years with a few exceptions.

But still he's tied for 12th despite only playing two seasons when others have played for far longer during this 18-19 year period.

[Califan007 The Constipated]

I will say though, while Shanahan is making the final calls, the quality of our picks has to be credited to Scott Campbell and Morocco Brown heading a fine scouting department. I love this front office.

Yep, Shanahan gave the scouting department the necessary resources to maximize their abilities and utilizes their scouting efforts in ways Vinny never dared.

[LD0506]

Great article that will be completely ignored by Eeyores that won't let those pesky facts get in the way of a good rant

[Hitman21ST]

Great write up, although the title is ever so slightly misleading. When I initially read it, I read it as Shanahan is the only coach to have his first rounders make the Pro Bowl their rookie year every year since 2010. Then I read the article and understood. Doesn't take anything away from the actual article though.

[Skinsinparadise]

Yep, Shanahan gave the scouting department the necessary resources to maximize their abilities and utilizes their scouting efforts in ways Vinny never dared.

Also, recall I think it was Sheehan from 980 who had a source to this -- Shanny reviewed Scott Campbell's previous draft boards and saw a lot of good recommendations and that Vinny would override the board on players including M. Kelly. Also, a big part of the prior FO's issues was a lack of draft picks, Vinny would give them away like candy. Shanny on the other hand collects them. We all recall Shanny fleece picks from us in both the Portis and Duckett trades -- the Duckett deal they got involved as a third party.

[Hitman21ST]

When you look at Hankerson's stats from last year he had as many opportunities and yards as any other receiver. He clearly needs to work on the drops but he made as much or more impact than Jshua Morgan in 2012.

He doesn't need to work on his drops any more than any other of our receivers. He either had the fewest drops or lowest drop percentage (can't remember which one) of all the Skins receivers.

[PortisBetts]

He doesn't need to work on his drops any more than any other of our receivers. He either had the fewest drops or lowest drop percentage (can't remember which one) of all the Skins receivers.

Is that true? I actually would never have guessed it. I guess that is the eye-test. You see a lot of bobbles, so drops are just assumed. I think Hank turns into a competent number 2 this season.

[rd421]

He doesn't need to work on his drops any more than any other of our receivers. He either had the fewest drops or lowest drop percentage (can't remember which one) of all the Skins receivers.

you have a point all the receivers could work on their hands lol

[Recent Vintage]

I still would've rather had JJ Watt than Kerrigan. Although we eventually got a lot of players out of Jacksonville's 2nd rounder so maybe its worth the difference... who knows.

[LD0506]

I still would've rather had JJ Watt than Kerrigan. Although we eventually got a lot of players out of Jacksonville's 2nd rounder so maybe its worth the difference... who knows.

Yeah, its hard to watch Watt and not want him on our roster, but when you consider the broader context of where we were and what the FO needed to do, it was still the right decision. When money's tight you spread it thin and make every penny count. Drool a little at that 90" LED flatscreen but make do with what you have and fix the furnace first.

[Laxpunk2006]

Is that true? I actually would never have guessed it. I guess that is the eye-test. You see a lot of bobbles, so drops are just assumed. I think Hank turns into a competent number 2 this season.

Catch % per PFF:

Pierre Garcon: 69.8

Leonard Hankerson: 69.1

Santana Moss: 68.3

Josh Morgan: 69.6

Drops:

Pierre Garcon: 5

Leonard Hankerson: 3

Santana Moss: 6

Josh Morgan: 7

As far as the overall article it's interesting to see how we've stacked up over the past few years but I can't agree with the timeline of events. It wasn't any surprise when we drafted Trent Williams over Okung, it was widely discussed that he was Mike's preference and a better fit for the zone scheme. Same deal with drafting Kerrigan. Obviously no one knew we were trading back but most people saw the reports of Mike liking Gabbert as a smoke screen and he had said point blank his priority was a pass rusher. Not exactly "left field."

[ThomasRoane]

It really is amazing. Trent was an absolute grand slam for a top 5 pick, and Ryan is really coming along as an elite linebacker in the 3-4. RG3 .. nuff said.

It's how the draft is supposed to be. A 1st rounder becomes a cornerstone, and you have contributors coming from the late rounds. I will say though, while Shanahan is making the final calls, the quality of our picks has to be credited to Scott Campbell and Morocco Brown heading a fine scouting department. I love this front office.

Not to mention that we have AJ Smith on board now who has proven to be a top notch evaluator of late round and undrafted players! I'm soooo excited for the future of my favorite team!

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

Catch % per PFF:

Pierre Garcon: 69.8

Leonard Hankerson: 69.1

Santana Moss: 68.3

Josh Morgan: 69.6

Drops:

Pierre Garcon: 5

Leonard Hankerson: 3

Santana Moss: 6

Josh Morgan: 7

Seems to be another case where PFF differs a lot from other stats sites. I've got these as numbers for them. While the catch rate is slightly lower here, just like in PFF, the differences between the receivers is negligible.

Catch Rate:

Garcon - 65.67%

Hankerson - 66.67%

Moss - 67.21%

Morgan - 65.75%

Drops:

Garcon - 3

Hankerson - 5

Moss - 4

Morgan - 4

Drop Rate:

Garcon - 4.48%

Hankerson - 8.77%

Moss - 6.56%

Morgan - 5.48%

[SWFLSkins]

Great article that will be completely ignored by Eeyores that won't let those pesky facts get in the way of a good rant

People should just shut up and read they might learn a thing or two. The drafting has been exceptional, I mean exceptional, period. Great job SOW again. You are on a tear, after coming off a roll. I can't wait to see what tricks the draft team has in it's bag this year.

[Pedro]

It's a team game off the field as well as on it and Mike is getting value from guys everywhere. From the outside looking in just his buddy Slowik to be let go now Danny Smith did the honors for us and left.

[jflow78]

This is pretty much why I no longer pay much attention to the pre-draft stuff. Usually, we pick someone (after the 1st) who I'm not familiar enough with to know and I have to do a bunch of post-draft research to learn about them, and it seems most of the time they turn out pretty good.

So, I'm not really worried anymore.

[bedlamVR]

As far as the overall article it's interesting to see how we've stacked up over the past few years but I can't agree with the timeline of events. It wasn't any surprise when we drafted Trent Williams over Okung, it was widely discussed that he was Mike's preference and a better fit for the zone scheme. Same deal with drafting Kerrigan. Obviously no one knew we were trading back but most people saw the reports of Mike liking Gabbert as a smoke screen and he had said point blank his priority was a pass rusher. Not exactly "left field."

It might have been said Williams might have been more of a Shanahan pick - it was McShays and Mel Kippers final mock selections , he was still not considered the "right" pick and generally a bad choice that was 'characteristic' of Shanahan knowing best - against conventional wisdom .

Okung was still a strong pick but he was the safe pick - There are people who would argue Okung is the best left tackle in all of football - (mostly weed smoking hippies on the other coast) - but the article is correct in summizing that the Shanahans did it there way - took the gamble and got the player with the bigger upside.

In 2011 - There was no question - no question at all that we were going to select a QB - No question - in fact there was some speculation about trading up to grab someone like Gabbert citing him as a posible No .2. overall selection - IF we could not get that choice pick - then we were going defense - but Kerrigan was briefly talked about but was dismissed as a target because there were better options as pass rushers like Robert Quinn who was heavily trailed - But the Redskins FO kept it powder dry and continued to try and recoup some of the damage done over the last decade or so by trading back and picking up a high character - good tryer in Kerrigan rather than a standout player .. even later in the draft we could have moved to pick up Dalton and possibly Kaep - ( but in year 2 of the Ginger wonder - you started to see the roof of his potential) and we totally confounded critics ...doing it their own way -

[Henry]

I agree with the OP entirely, though I will also point out that the difference between this front office and the Snyder/Cerratto front office is not the first round. We've always been good at drafting first rounders. Brian Orakpo, Carlos Rogers, Sean Taylor ... with the possible exception of LaRon Landry, we have usually hit in the first round. It's the later rounds that have really made the difference. We got at least two starters and eight (EIGHT!) solid contributors from 2011. 2012 looks just as good, if not even better. Our last two drafts have been nothing short of spectacular. If this keeps up we will be one of the best teams in the league. Mark my words.

EDIT: Regarding Hankerson, 86 players caught 50 or more passes this season, Football Outsiders ranks Hankerson as 41st amongst them. While that doesn't make him a superstar by any means, it does mean he is a contributor and not a bust. Would it be nice if all 3rd rounders produced like TO? Sure, but some of them turn out to be 2nd or 3rd options, and that's fine too.

[authentic]

I will say though, while Shanahan is making the final calls, the quality of our picks has to be credited to Scott Campbell and Morocco Brown heading a fine scouting department. I love this front office.

its a bit depressing to know that we had this talent in-house for so many years, but weren't being utilized like they were supposed to be. We're fortunate that they stayed the course during the transition between Vinny to (Bruce & Shanny). At some point they need to get their just due for what they've done in only a short time.