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An Unfortunate Scheduling Wrinkle (Skins/Dallas)


kevinklein

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I realized last night, with the help of a friend, that even if the Skins win and Dallas loses in week 16, the week 17 matchup between the old rivals will still be for the division title. For the sake of demonstrating, let's say the Giants also lose in week 16, effectively knocking them from the race.

Under this scenario, the Skins would be 9-6 and Dallas would be 8-7. Their division records, aka the first tie breaker, would be 4-1 and 3-2 respectively. If Dallas won that week 17 game, their overall records and their division records would be the same. The next tiebreaker is common games played.

Because two of Dallas's losses came against teams we did not play (Chicago, Seattle), and only one of our losses came against a team Dallas did not play (St. Louis), they would win that tiebreaker and thus, the division.

Someone correct me if I'm misunderstanding somewhere...but seems to me the week 17 game looms larger than ever.

****in' Roethlisberger.

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I realized last night, with the help of a friend, that even if the Skins win and Dallas loses in week 16, the week 17 matchup between the old rivals will still be for the division title. For the sake of demonstrating, let's say the Giants also lose in week 16, effectively knocking them from the race.

Under this scenario, the Skins would be 9-6 and Dallas would be 8-7. Their division records, aka the first tie breaker, would be 4-1 and 3-2 respectively. If Dallas won that week 17 game, their overall records and their division records would be the same. The next tiebreaker is common games played.

Because two of Dallas's losses came against teams we did not play (Chicago, Seattle), and only one of our losses came against a team Dallas did not play (St. Louis), they would win that tiebreaker and thus, the division.

Someone correct me if I'm misunderstanding somewhere...but seems to me the week 17 game looms larger than ever.

****in' Roethlisberger.

Isn't it Conference Record?

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I believe you only count the overall W-L from the games that the teams shared a common opponent.

There are two teams from the Cowboys schedule that the Redskins did not play (CHI & SEA).

There are two teams from the Redskins schedule that the Cowboys did not play (MIN & STL).

That leaves each team with 12 games where they shared a common opponent (not counting the 2 divisional games vs the other Tied team).

You would compare the two respective win percentages from those 12 games.

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I believe you only count the overall W-L from the games that the teams shared a common opponent.

There are two teams from the Cowboys schedule that the Redskins did not play (CHI & SEA).

There are two teams from the Redskins schedule that the Cowboys did not play (MIN & STL).

That leaves each team with 12 games where they shared a common opponent (not counting the 2 divisional games vs the other Tied team).

You would compare the two respective win percentages from those 12 games.

Exactly, which is where, unfortunately, Dallas finds their advantage.

So yes, as Nibbs alluded to with the silvertongued quote above, perhaps this was how it was meant to be. RG3, in his first year, against a hated rival, for the division, at home. Talk about stakes, baby.

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If we want a playoff spot guaranteed then we would need the Cowboys & Giants to lose next week with 1 loss from the Vikings (Texans & GB left) & Bears (AZ & Detroit).

We would still get WC with that even with a loss to the Cowboys in week 17 and a Giants win week 17

Screw that. Just win baby. Control your own destiny....

It is nice to have a back up plan though :D

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Isn't it Conference Record?

Not any more. With the realignment and scheduling algorithm changes that started in 2002, teams have 14 common opponents/game (six in division, four in conference out of division, four interconference). That became the stronger tiebreaker (after division but before conference record).

"Oh, now be honest, Captain, warrior to warrior. You do prefer it this way, don't you, as it was meant to be? No peace in our time. 'Once more unto the breach, dear friends.'" - General Chang, ST VI

I have to say that one (Undiscovered Country) is one of my favorite of all the ST movies.

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Not any more. With the realignment and scheduling algorithm changes that started in 2002, teams have 14 common opponents/game (six in division, four in conference out of division, four interconference). That became the stronger tiebreaker (after division but before conference record).

Well that sucks :(

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here is a succinct summation of the current situation:

regardless of what happens in week 16, the cowboys-redskins game in week 17 is going to determine the winner of the division no matter what, even if it's by giving it to the giants.

giving it to the giants is tough, though -- for that to happen, ALL of this must happen: giants win out, redskins lose to philly, cowboys beat the saints, and the redskins beat the cowboys. (OR both redskins and cowboys lose next week and giants win out)

oddly enough, there are no scenarios by which the game against philly has any bearing on the redskins final position relative to the cowboys.

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Maybe we should sticky a thread with the playoff scenarios (man, that feels awesome to request). I have read the same misunderstandings, etc. in about 14 threads.

In short, there is no scenario in which we don't need the Dallas game for the division. Their win against Pittsburgh made it so that our only path to the East includes beating them. We can clinch a playoff berth next week if we win and Chicago, New York, and Minnesota all lose. There are probably a bunch of scenarios that allow us to clinch a playoff berth in week 17.

So, in short, WE WANT DALLAS.

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Maybe we should sticky a thread with the playoff scenarios (man, that feels awesome to request). I have read the same misunderstandings, etc. in about 14 threads.

In short, there is no scenario in which we don't need the Dallas game for the division. Their win against Pittsburgh made it so that our only path to the East includes beating them. We can clinch a playoff berth next week if we win and Chicago, New York, and Minnesota all lose. There are probably a bunch of scenarios that allow us to clinch a playoff berth in week 17.

So, in short, WE WANT DALLAS.

We don't need Dallas to lose to for a playoff birth?

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