ptr77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 It's pretty disgusting when people actually root against their country succeeding because of political bias. Some Democrats and Republicans are guilty of this, it's equally disgusting who ever does it. We have the same problem in Canada. This is great news for America (and the world) and hopefully a trend that continues. Both sides will try to skew this for political gain (obviously), but it is good news either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 best thing that can happen to the admin is extremists to jump on this conspiracy stuff. It backfires like birtherism. At least Romney said this isn't what a recovery looks like....though I'm not sure he's ever seen one or created one either. His idea of a recovery is getting a loan from Mom and Dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 best thing that can happen to the admin is extremists to jump on this conspiracy stuff. It backfires like birtherism. At least Romney said this isn't what a recovery looks like....though I'm not sure he's ever seen one or created one either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Cooking the books would involve a conspiracy involving a lot of folks at the DoL/BLS. It doesn't strike me as something O would try to pull off. I am not sure if it would be wise for Obama to hang his hat on this one. This is good news but how helpful is it to say, "The unemployment rate is very high, exactly where it was when Bush left office, and a lot of people have left the workforce. BOOM! Suck on that Mitt!" Oh, agreed. Politically, "Look how great the economy is! And it's all because of me!" probably doesn't fly too well. This isn't a great economy. It's an economy that doesn't suck quite as bad as it has been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Evil Genius Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 best thing that can happen to the admin is extremists to jump on this conspiracy stuff. It backfires like birtherism. At least Romney said this isn't what a recovery looks like....though I'm not sure he's ever seen one or created one either. His idea of a recovery is getting a loan from Mom and Dad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Major revisions to the two prior months numbershttp://www.businessinsider.com/september-non-farm-payrolls-report-2012-10 Maybe they have trouble counting?? So you're taking the position that they are lying? Or are you oing to go all Faux News and sit back and insinuate rather than actually take a position and support it with actual evidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Major revisions to the two prior months numbershttp://www.businessinsider.com/september-non-farm-payrolls-report-2012-10 Yes. They announced that they were better than the estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Yes. They announced that they were better than the estimates. You apparently don't understand the game, see, when there is good news for America and a Democrat is in office you must first question the news and then imply shady dealings. You don't ever have to try and substantiate the crap you imply you just have to feed the base a shred of doubt for them to cling to the truth that Obama is indeed the worst president in history. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prosperity Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 The Gallup unemployment rate poll was at 8.1% so I doubt that there is some conspiracy to lower the #'s, they don't seem too far off http://www.gallup.com/poll/157871/unadjusted-unemployment-rate-september.aspx (and they had the rate at lower levels in the summer, which corroborates the retrospective revision upward) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Excellent news. Now hopefully people actually, you know, feel this. On the ground, unless you are in the DC area (yay me) its still appears very rough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Yes. They announced that they were better than the estimates. Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before? Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Skinz4Life12 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 democrat or republican, this is great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptr77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before? Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed You would fire your accountant for making an estimate and then revising it with the actual numbers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twa Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 You would fire your accountant for making an estimate and then revising it with the actual numbers? So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjTj Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number?It is an estimate. These numbers are always estimates. We do not survey every single American every month to ask them whether or not they are working. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 There is no conspiracy to manipulate data. People are hiring and productivity is still sky high, which means more people need to be hired 7.8% still sucks. The trend is good however and hopefully this starts to pick up momentum before the fiscal cliff hits. If it appears the job market is trending up, hopefully this means QE4 won't become a reality and we see gains across the broader economy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SkinsHokieFan Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 It is an estimate. These numbers are always estimates. We do not survey every single American every month to ask them whether or not they are working. We could be growing at 4.5% right now. Or be in a recession at the moment as we were in December '07 when the economy felt fine. Its impossible to know what the economy is doing "right now" which is why there are so many revisions going forward. I have interviewed at and know too many people at BLS. These people aren't in the "lets make the incumbent President look good" business Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
88Comrade2000 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Let's see what the numbers are after Obama's reelection, if they are still the same or trending downward; then it's for real. As Bill Clinton says, people have to feel it. For those who are early voting now; if they feel the trend is positive; then Obama has no worries. A vast majority in the swing states have to not feel it, for Obama to lose. Considering they revise the numbers every month; I will wait to see if we have real improvement or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DjTj Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 We could be growing at 4.5% right now.Or be in a recession at the moment as we were in December '07 when the economy felt fine. Its impossible to know what the economy is doing "right now" which is why there are so many revisions going forward. I have interviewed at and know too many people at BLS. These people aren't in the "lets make the incumbent President look good" business I also think it's important to note that, even though the number is likely to be revised later, it is the *best* estimate they can come up with right now. It is impossible to be absolutely correct (short of forcing every American to report their daily employment status to the government), but their job is to do the best that they can.edit: I found a technical note to the BLS data, which explains that there is an expected sampling error of around 100,000 jobs and a 90% confidence interval for the unemployment rate of +/- 0.19% (when unemployment is around 5.5%). http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.tn.htm Assuming that the error will increase with the square root of the unemployment rate, that would put the confidence interval at +/-0.23% for this estimate. That means that BLS is estimating that there is a 90% chance that the true unemployment rate is between 7.6% and 8.0%. Yes, but are the numbers NOW accurate when they were not before? Maybe the unemployment is actually 6.9 ....since they were off so much earlier variations on that scale would find my accountant unemployed It depends on what you have hired your accountant to do. If you are giving your accountant records of every single transaction you have made, and they are supposed to add those up, then yes, you should fire an accountant who is off by a few percentage points.But if you are asking your accountant to estimate the productivity of your workforce based on a survey of a representative sample of your employees, then an error of a few percentage points would be perfectly reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptr77 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 So you are saying the 7.9 now is simply a estimate or the actual number? Ah I see your point. So since all these numbers don't come from polling every American, they are all worthless. Unless of course they show very high unemployment, then they are definitely completely 100% accurate and above reproach and questioning. You can chose to believe the numbers or not. The possibility of the job market turning around doesn't mean Obama is doing a good job. Just like someone being happy about these numbers doesn't automatically make them a democrat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsmarydu Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 I'm super stoked about this. BARACK2012 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Excellent news.Now hopefully people actually, you know, feel this. On the ground, unless you are in the DC area (yay me) its still appears very rough. It's very rough outside of this area for the most part - very much so... It will get bad here if the DoD contracts go down the toilet and they will if O get's re-elected (God help us personally) I got real lucky. I was in Florida unemployed from 7/11 thru 8/12. I reached out to a contact in the NOVA area and landed in a federally funded contract position. I have some security, but anything can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DallasCowboyFan156 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 This is the lowest unemployment number since the President took office. He has one more jobs report due out before the election. If it dips below 7.8% he can claim that the economy is now better than it was than at the end of the Bush era which would be huge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skinsfan07 Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 This is the lowest unemployment number since the President took office. He has one more jobs report due out before the election. If it dips below 7.8% he can claim that the economy is now better than it was than at the end of the Bush era which would be huge. Bingo. Hopefully it drops to at least 7.5%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
@DCGoldPants Posted October 5, 2012 Share Posted October 5, 2012 Obviously getting back to the levels when he took office during the crash is ok. But what we need is levels from at least 6 months before that. If he's smart enough, that's the message now. "This is headed in the right direction, but the next goal is ......" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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