President Barack Obama/Vice-President Joe Biden Re-elected to 2nd Term Thread

[NoVaO]

I think you're potentially over-estimating both the black vote for him as well as the youth vote. I'm not saying the black vote won't trend to him, of course it will and overwhelmingly so, but I think you're much more likely to see a lack of voting on the Dems side in several demographics. The fact that unemployment for 18-25 year olds is at historic highs shouldn't help things for him either and the youth vote is notoriously (and historically) apathetic. Who cares if Obama is talking about another 5 years? Is he going to say he's not going to win?

Disagree on the black vote. They will turn out for him just as hard for Obama as they did four years ago. Polls show their enthusiasm remains very high as well.

Young voters you are probably right on. It will be harder to turn them out this year than in 2008. But Obama's organization and ground game is very good, and their are 4 million or so newly eligible voters that will help make up for any drop off in turnout from those who voted in 2008. It will be a challenge though.

Other demographics, hispanic approval of Obama is solid, though down from its 2008 levels, like it is for every other demographic group other than black voters. That said, most of the polling I've seen still have hispanics voting for Obama at an equal or greater rate than they did in 2008. This is a consequence of Romney's hard turn to the right during the primaries, particularly on immigration.

Which leads to another point...Republicans can't be a somebody with a nobody. They need to have an appealing alternative to Obama, and for Romney, the more the electorate gets to know him, the less they like him. The primary has been taken a toll on his favorability ratings, which have risen sharply over the past month or two. Being seen unfavorably as a challenger to the President is a big red flag heading into the general.

That said, there are plenty of headwinds Obama will have to deal with. Things can change very quickly for any number of reasons. Way too early for Dems to be celebrating.

[Kilmer17]

rasmussen polls ONLY using automated landline phone calls. for a variety of reasons, this skews their polling data older and more conservative (in general). i don't think the bias is particularly intentional.

That's an old rumor that just wont die.

Here's direct info from Rasmussen website-

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from a demographically diverse panel.

After the surveys are completed, the raw data is processed through a weighting program to insure that the sample reflects the overall population in terms of age, race, gender, political party, and other factors. The processing step is required because different segments of the population answer the phone in different ways. For example, women answer the phone more than men, older people are home more and answer more than younger people, and rural residents typically answer the phone more frequently than urban residents.

[greenspandan]

pretty much everything i said is true. the only inaccuracy is that they added an online poll component. (pretty sure most pollsters weight their data to match broader demographics). but the fact remains that their results have historically leaned conservative compared to other polls and actual election results.

[Kilmer17]

pretty much everything i said is true. the only inaccuracy is that they added an online poll component. (pretty sure most pollsters weight their data to match broader demographics). but the fact remains that their results have historically leaned conservative compared to other polls and actual election results.

Well, you said he ONLY uses landlines. That's not true at all.

And the myth of his innaccuracy is another one that just wont go away.

Here is the study of accuracy from the 2008 Pres campaign.

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Rasmussen was the top. One of only two who got it perfect.

The reason behind this is that Rasmussen is incredibly slanted in his non-election polling. It drives the left wing nuts. And they project that onto his election analysis polling.

But his election polling is the best in the business.

---------- Post added February-24th-2012 at 04:47 PM ----------

Which is closer to the real spread in the O v Mitt race?

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7

USA Today Gallup has Mitt up by 1

[greenspandan]

---------- Post added February-24th-2012 at 04:47 PM ----------

[/color]Which is closer to the real spread in the O v Mitt race?

Rasmussen has Obama up by 7

USA Today Gallup has Mitt up by 1

The gallup poll is a major outlier. A whole bunch of polls have Obama up nationally. But Rasmussen being in line with the rest on a single polling instance doesn't prove they're the best in the business.

[Kilmer17]

The gallup poll is a major outlier. A whole bunch of polls have Obama up nationally. But Rasmussen being in line with the rest on a single polling instance doesn't prove they're the best in the business.

True. Which is why I linked the study from the 08 race that shows he was the best.

[IHOPSkins]

Disagree on the black vote. They will turn out for him just as hard for Obama as they did four years ago. Polls show their enthusiasm remains very high as well.......

Yup

Its their patriotic Duty

Obama Plays Race Card, Calls on Churches to Support Campaign

The program urges black Americans to volunteer their time by making calls, organizing events and going door to door in their neighborhoods encouraging other African Americans to vote for Obama.

Not only is Obama playing the race card in an attempt to pressure black Americans into voting for him, he is also violating the separation between church and state. In the video promo for the campaign, Obama urges black people to pressure churches into supporting his administration by getting his message out via “the faith community”. He also calls on voters to become “congregation captains”.

Again, imagine what the reaction would be any of the Republican candidates launched a ‘Whites for Romney’, ‘Whites for Santorum’ or ‘Whites for Gingrich’ campaign. There would be non-stop uproar. But Obama does the equivalent and gets a free pass.

http://www.prisonplanet.com/obama-plays-race-card-calls-on-churches-to-support-campaign.html

Quote from the Official Obama Site

This year, I’m asking African Americans, women and all people who want to see our progress continue to stand with me. Let’s have the President’s back like he’s had ours.

http://www.barackobama.com/african-americans/

Here is a few quotes from the Liberal Huff Puff

Should Black Americans Expect More From Obama Than Any Other President?

Has the Obama presidency been good for black America? It depends on who you ask. But what I ask, quite simply, is that we focus on tangible results and not symbolism when making our assessment.......

.......At the end of the day, the proof must be in the pudding. If the numbers on unemployment, foreclosure and wealth inequality show that Obama has done a good job for black Americans, then we should support him. But if the numbers do not justify his re-election, we should not allow anyone to play the race card to convince us to vote blindly.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-boyce-watkins/black-voters-president-barack-obama_b_1222622.html

Is this Boyce guy a Conservative?.......you tell me

Now if a white president had the record that Obama has with black Americans.....do you think there would be this much Support in the black community?

But Obama will win re-election.......God is on his side

[mjah]

True. Which is why I linked the study from the 08 race that shows he was the best.

I have never heard anyone claim that Rasmussen was way out of line on the eve of the 08 election.

What I have heard, is that one or two pollsters will slant the results a bit to one side or another when the election is still further away, so as to make a particular candidate look more viable and shape public opinion about his chances. Everyone likes a winner, after all. Rasmussen's name comes up an awful lot in those conversations.

Now obviously, if anyone is still deliberately playing those games on the eve of the election, then they'll only look worse for it and degrade their reputation for the next election. Regardless of one's preferred outcome, it pays to be accurate on the eve of the vote.

Hence the value of the RCP average -- which in this most recent case shows Rasmussen being a major right-leaning outlier. That doesn't at all prove that Rasmussen is always a right-leaning outlier when the election is still weeks or months away. But neither does one accurate election-eve poll from 08 prove that Rasmussen is any good most of the time.

You'd have to show superior accuracy over an extended period of time -- which, given that an election only involves one deterministically measurable event, would be a bit of a trick. But you could make a strong argument for it if Rasmussen was consistently somewhere in the middle of the pack (surrounded by other, presumably less accurate outliers) in the many RCP averages taken in the months leading to November 08. As I recall though, Rasmussen was not found in the middle of the pack most of the time, suggesting bias vs. the collection of other polls.

(I'm wondering who will take the bait and claim that clearly, then, all the other polls must have been biased left. )

[No Excuses]

Yup

Its their patriotic Duty

Obama Plays Race Card, Calls on Churches to Support Campaign

The program urges black Americans to volunteer their time by making calls, organizing events and going door to door in their neighborhoods encouraging other African Americans to vote for Obama.

Not only is Obama playing the race card in an attempt to pressure black Americans into voting for him, he is also violating the separation between church and state. In the video promo for the campaign, Obama urges black people to pressure churches into supporting his administration by getting his message out via “the faith community”. He also calls on voters to become “congregation captains”.

Typical nonsense article by an Alex Jones lemming. Take a video (or article, science paper etc.), in general pick out a small piece of a larger message and blow it out of proportion by injecting lies and false analysis. Watch the video and then match it up with the laughably bad analysis in the article.

[IHOPSkins]

...... bad analysis in the article.

Exaggerated maybe (although Boyce makes the same "Race Card" claim

But

I think the coverage of Obama is biased favorably also......The question concerning "are you better off NOW?" should be asked and answered

[JimboDaMan]

Exaggerated maybe

But

I think the coverage of Obama is biased favorably also......The question concerning "are you better off NOW?" should be asked and answered

That question never made much sense to me. My feeling has always been, "are you better off than you would have been under the other guy". For the upcoming election, it should be "are you better off re-electing, or going with the other guy". Under Bush as a for instance, his Presidency opened during a time of relative peace and stability and prosperity. It ended under a continuous terrorist threat with Wall Street plumeting, the economy in a shambles and the country struggling to disengage from Iraq and Afghanistan. We were certainly not better off, but I'm betting you preferred that to 4 or 8 years under President Gore or President Kerry.

[IHOPSkins]

....... My feeling has always been, "are you better off than you would have been under the other guy"......

Totally agree with this

Also at issue is how much can a person effect the present circumstances that were not his fault?....IE

You mention Bush having to deal with Terrorists as if the terrorist issue started with him....I would argue that CLINTON being lazy with prosecuting a war that had heated up under his administration was some of the Cause of the Bush issues....just like Obama blames (and continues to blame) the present economy on Bush.

But using Obamas promises and the conditions we have now.....there should be more critic from all sources for his inability to get things done.

[Larry]

I would argue that CLINTON being lazy with prosecuting a war that had heated up under his administration was some of the Cause of the Bush issues

Just pointing out:

Clinton created a special task force, within the CIA, tasked solely with gathering intel and monitoring Ossamma and al Qaeda.

W disbanded that unit. And created a special unit, outside the CIA, tasked with grabbing any intel they could find about Iraq, and sending that information to the White House before the CIA could check to see if the report was true, or even if it was possible..

Does that mean that Clinton was 100% completely blameless? Hardly.

(Heck. Does that mean that if W hadn't disbanded that unit, 9/11 wouldn't have happened? I certainly haven't seen any evidence of that. Not even any rumors or claims.)

(Heck. IMO? I don't blame anybody for 9/11. Well, nobody but the terrorists.)

[IHOPSkins]

.......Clinton created .....W disbanded......

And Hindsight is 20/20

After its all said and done Bush is getting heat for being TOO agressive......Clinton gets it for Not being aggressive enough

Out of those two choices.....Give you one guess as to which I prefer

Back to topic...Obama gets a pass

[mjah]

After its all said and done Bush is getting heat for being TOO agressive......Clinton gets it for Not being aggressive enough

Out of those two choices.....Give you one guess as to which I prefer

How about option ©: Vigilantly pursuing terrorists without resorting to such lunacy as claiming that torture should be an American value.

There is a useful middle ground that draws from the merits of each approach. There's no reason to act as if it has to be only one or the other.

[@DCGoldPants]

How about option ©: Vigilantly pursuing terrorists without resorting to such lunacy as claiming that torture should be an American value.

There is a useful middle ground that draws from the merits of each approach. There's no reason to act as if it has to be only one or the other.

Well said....plus, in 2008 folks said this was going to be his weakest point. Not knowing when to step up, or step back. Judgment calls....etc etc. The way we've handled our role in Egypt, Bin Laden and Libya seems to be 3 for 3.

It also doesn't hurt to be compared to those running against you at the moment. For his smugness, or elitism, or whatever......it appears to a lot of others who genuinely seems to be undecided that he's the adult in the room at the moment. Not by his own doing of course. By the primary process that's going. That's one factor in why incumbents win a lot. You have to be Rick Santorum bad to get rolled as one.

[88Comrade2000]

Prepare for 4 more or for the world to end instead.

[skinsmarydu]

Prepare for 4 more or for the world to end instead.

Compared to everyone in the GOP primary, he IS the adult in the room.

He can't get anything done if Congress won't pass a bill. They've flipped on everything. Even when it comes to voting on bills they sponsor, if they think POTUS will sign it, they vote "no". (DADT). Repuplicans whine and moan about the stimulus, then stand there real pretty with the big checks when they came in for the photo op. They're nuts, and they know they have no chance. Hail.

[MattFancy]

I honestly don't think Obama loses this election. The GOP is just so far out in right field that most can't take them seriously.

[Jumbo]

At some point these guys will quit eating their own and start to attack their real opponent.

The top 5 ways Republicans will use Obama’s words against him

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/power-players-abc-news/top-5-ways-republicans-obama-words-against-him-112215786.html

A few weeks ago Spinners and Winners went through the top five things Mitt Romney has said that Democrats would use against him if he wins the Republican nomination. Now the flip side: The top five things from Barack Obama you can be sure Republicans will use over and over again in the fall campaign.

<more at link>

[PCS]

Apparently the President is working with Facebook to keep some members of the Right down.

[@DCGoldPants]

Obama gains with women: Jobs, social issues help

By LAURIE KELLMAN and JENNIFER AGIESTA

Associated Press

WASHINGTON (AP) - It's looking like President Barack Obama may be back in the good graces of women.

His support dropped among this critical constituency just before the new year began and the presidential campaign got under way in earnest. But his standing with female voters is strengthening, polls show, as the economy improves and social issues, including birth control, become a bigger part of the nation's political discourse.

"Republicans are making a big mistake with this contraception talk, and I'm pretty sure that they are giving (the election) to Obama," says Patricia Speyerer, 87, of McComb, Miss., a GOP-leaning independent. "It's a stupid thing."

More from the link.

[greenspandan]

it's a stupid stance and it's costing them. both politically stupid and ethically stupid. to have a bunch of men harrumphing around about birth control? laughably moronic.

[JimboDaMan]

Also at issue is how much can a person effect the present circumstances that were not his fault?....IE

You mention Bush having to deal with Terrorists as if the terrorist issue started with him....I would argue that CLINTON being lazy with prosecuting a war that had heated up under his administration was some of the Cause of the Bush issues....just like Obama blames (and continues to blame) the present economy on Bush.

But using Obamas promises and the conditions we have now.....there should be more critic from all sources for his inability to get things done.

Sure, that's a legitimate viewpoint about Bush and terrorism. But I can point out Obama was handed an economy in chaos, financial system on the verge of collapse, manufacturing base crumbling, stock market plummeting and a deficit skyrocketing with two wars, entitlements greatly expanded and massive cuts eroded the tax base. Just like you point out issues Bush might have inherited from Clinton. I think we both agree that the question "are you better off now..." is too simplistic to be meaningful.

[Jumbo]

The SW continues it's competition with the "traditional south " as a most special region in certain political leanings.

O is going to have to face a reborn energy of birther-level nature in opposition to his 2nd term once the GOP nomineeis settled. :cool:

New Mexico town elects mayor who called Obama evil

http://news.yahoo.com/mexico-town-elects-mayor-called-obama-evil-152327548.html

LOVIS, N.M. (AP) — A former New Mexico mayor who called President Barack Obama "the carnal manifestation of evil" and said Obama's election was part of a CIA conspiracy has been elected to his former job, according to unofficial results.

The Clovis News Journal reports (http://bit.ly/yRR7Uy ) that former Clovis mayor David Lansford won his old job back Tuesday by defeating Mayor Gayla Brumfield with almost 63 percent of the votes.

Lansford, 53, recently gained national attention after the newspaper reported his ties to a fringe religious and political group, ATLAH Media Network in New York. After threatening to withdraw from the race, Lansford later changed his mind and stayed in the race but said he felt disclosing his activities was unfair and would prompt others to label him "a whack job."

<much more at link>