Peyton Manning or the #1 Pick?

[tibbidoe]

One big problem with your theory and not necessarily in any order but there's free agency, senior bowl, combine, college pro days, etc. Anything can happen between now and the draft, like your top QB prospect slipping on a bar of soap in the shower and breaking a leg.

Very true. I was just thinking about what it would take for me personally to worry about getting the #1.

Since my word carries the weight it does, I figure Coach will announce the move shortly. haha

[Son of Gadsden]

You're living in a pipe dream. It won't happen. The Colts are going to keep Manning and let Luck learn from him.

Thinking anything else is just like thinking "Maybe the Rams WON'T pick Bradford first overall and he'll fall to us!" or "Maybe Carolina decides not to go with a QB and passes on Cam Newton and we trade up for him!".

The truth is there are 31 other teams out there that want to win too, and miracles like that more likely than not, do not happen.

Manning and Luck will be the new Favre and Rodgers. The new rookie pay scale would allow for this to happen, there is no real incentive to trade him.

There is a very slim chance that the Colts are the stupidest team in football and decide to trade one of them, but highly unlikely. And if they do, the Browns could throw in everything we have plus another 1st and 4th this year and maybe throw in McCoy as a backup to Manning so they don't suffer so bad if he goes down again. What do we have to offer? Nothing that can compete with that, I assure you. And if we did, we would destroy the rebuild we have going.

I hate to get on this bandwagon, because I haven't been but the smart thing to do would be to take someone like Flynn in FA then draft Tannehill (or another QB we can take in the 2nd or lower). Added to that we take Blackmon with our 1st rounder and use the rest on OL and DB's. We all saw what a big play WR AJ Green did for Cincy, and what Jones has done for Atlanta. WR's are a big gamble though, so maybe we decide to trade down. Ideally we can end up with a deal like Atlanta gave to Cleveland last year and get a ton of picks to rebuild with. This allows us the best chance at the most value, with the least risk. We don't lose anything but cap space to get Flynn, no picks. If he doesnt work out, we see what Tannehill has. If Tannehill doesnt work out, we go for Barkley next year. I think RG3 and Luck are both beyond our reach. But if you can get them without becoming counterproductive to the rebuild, no question you get them.

However, Shanahan is a football genius, and whatever plan any of us put together is very likely inferior to his. He made arguably the worst D in the NFL one of the top 10 in ONE year. He drafted Brandon Marshall in the 4th round. Not many teams wouldnt take him in the 1st if they had the knowledge we do now. He got Kerrigan when i don't even remember the guy's name in any of the mock drafts before we got him. Shanahan's resume for draft talent is ridiculously good. Nothing Shanahan says to us or the media can be taken seriously, because the guy lies about everything to keep everyone in the dark.

[deejaydana]

well said s2thalayer, I'm in agreement with everything you just imparted.

[Oldskool]

Well the Polian's are no longer in Indy so that changes the whole ballgame. Irsay is now in charge and this can go down a number of ways now.

Is Manning healthy? Can he still play? Does he want out of Indy?

SI's Peter King reports that Colts owner Jim Irsay views the payment of Peyton Manning's March 8 option bonus as a "family decision," unrelated to football or business.

Explained King on NBCSportsTalk, "It means to me that Jimmy Irsay is going to give Peyton Manning his $28 million bonus unless one of two things happen: Manning absolutely can’t play football or Manning wants out." Both of the scenarios named by King are realistic, but it sounds like the Colts will be bucking up if Manning is medically cleared and wants to stay in Indy. Jan 2 - 4:41 PM

As for Luck, if Manning is healthy and they can go with him for a few more years, I see them getting a kings ransom for the #1 pick this year. Irsay fired the Polians not for going 2-14 per se, but for messing up the Colt's drafts for the last 3-4 years that they had no depth and marginal players. What better way to rebuild than to get several 1st and 2nd round picks and simply move down 3-8 slots.

[RichmondRedskin88]

I don't think Luck and Manning could co exist. I think Favre and Rogers managed to pull it off but in this case you are dealing with a #1 pick sitting for years behind a QB that won't even mentor him anyway.

[LetThePointsSoar]

However, Shanahan is a football genius, and whatever plan any of us put together is very likely inferior to his. He made arguably the worst D in the NFL one of the top 10 in ONE year. He drafted Brandon Marshall in the 4th round. Not many teams wouldnt take him in the 1st if they had the knowledge we do now. He got Kerrigan when i don't even remember the guy's name in any of the mock drafts before we got him. Shanahan's resume for draft talent is ridiculously good. Nothing Shanahan says to us or the media can be taken seriously, because the guy lies about everything to keep everyone in the dark.

Precisely. And I love that about MS.

Nice sig too s2t- def a way to spot a keeper!

[Pick6]

Please you can't compare Mannning and Luck to Favre and Rodgers. No one projected Rodgers to be as elite as he is and he wasn't the #1 pick. Also, this was close to a time where Favre was back and forth on retiring, not Manning who could play another 5 years if healthy.

[Wrong Direction]

I'd rather have Luck than Manning at this point. I really don't expect the Colts to keep both. There is no reason for Luck to sit behind anyone and, by all appearances, he and his family agree. They'll force the Colts to make a decision.

[moondog]

S2thalayer,

It may have been mentioned but I didn't feel like reading through 10 pages: IF Manning is no longer with the Colts, meaning it would cost us nothing but money to sign him, I would not at all put it past Shanahan to sign him AND trade up for RGIII which I would be ecstatic about.

Now, like you said, I highly doubt there is even a chance the Colts cut Manning. But if it did happen, I would not be surprised at all to see us sign him and still trade up for RGIII so that he can learn behind one of the best.

[GibbsFactor]

I'm still on board with the idea that the Colts and Skins make a trade. A month ago the tea leaves said to pay attention to what's not being discussed.

[Devastate]

That's an interesting question.

For the Colts, I think they would want a fully healthy Manning, and go "all-in", keep the team together and add a few pieces, and make another couple runs at a title.

For any other team that wants to make a go at it - Jets, Dolphins, Raiders, 49ers come to mind (though San Fran seems to have a good thing going with Smith, we'll know after the playoffs) - Manning also makes sense.

For any rebuilding/young team, you gotta go #1.

As Skins fans, we'd all LOVE to see Peyton Manning in B&G....but let's face it, this team is rebuilding. A young QB is the way to go.

Maybe I'm the only one who wouldn't want to see Peyton in BnG.. I like him and I wouldn't be heart broken to see it. I just don't want to go with an aging QB and it doesn't work out and it sets us back another 5 years..... The lesser of two evils in my eyes is getting our own guy in the draft and seeing if we can make it work.. In the simpliest terms I'd much rather see a young guy struggle for a few years here, than Peyton.. I know I'm being pessimistic so sue me =)

[SavannahP]

You're living in a pipe dream. It won't happen. The Colts are going to keep Manning and let Luck learn from him.

Thinking anything else is just like thinking "Maybe the Rams WON'T pick Bradford first overall and he'll fall to us!" or "Maybe Carolina decides not to go with a QB and passes on Cam Newton and we trade up for him!".

The truth is there are 31 other teams out there that want to win too, and miracles like that more likely than not, do not happen.

Manning and Luck will be the new Favre and Rodgers. The new rookie pay scale would allow for this to happen, there is no real incentive to trade him.

There is a very slim chance that the Colts are the stupidest team in football and decide to trade one of them, but highly unlikely. And if they do, the Browns could throw in everything we have plus another 1st and 4th this year and maybe throw in McCoy as a backup to Manning so they don't suffer so bad if he goes down again. What do we have to offer? Nothing that can compete with that, I assure you. And if we did, we would destroy the rebuild we have going.

I hate to get on this bandwagon, because I haven't been but the smart thing to do would be to take someone like Flynn in FA then draft Tannehill (or another QB we can take in the 2nd or lower). Added to that we take Blackmon with our 1st rounder and use the rest on OL and DB's. We all saw what a big play WR AJ Green did for Cincy, and what Jones has done for Atlanta. WR's are a big gamble though, so maybe we decide to trade down. Ideally we can end up with a deal like Atlanta gave to Cleveland last year and get a ton of picks to rebuild with. This allows us the best chance at the most value, with the least risk. We don't lose anything but cap space to get Flynn, no picks. If he doesnt work out, we see what Tannehill has. If Tannehill doesnt work out, we go for Barkley next year. I think RG3 and Luck are both beyond our reach. But if you can get them without becoming counterproductive to the rebuild, no question you get them.

However, Shanahan is a football genius, and whatever plan any of us put together is very likely inferior to his. He made arguably the worst D in the NFL one of the top 10 in ONE year. He drafted Brandon Marshall in the 4th round. Not many teams wouldnt take him in the 1st if they had the knowledge we do now. He got Kerrigan when i don't even remember the guy's name in any of the mock drafts before we got him. Shanahan's resume for draft talent is ridiculously good. Nothing Shanahan says to us or the media can be taken seriously, because the guy lies about everything to keep everyone in the dark.

You and others on this "pipe dream" only scenario to get Luck are way off course. This is a rare situation on many levels that make a trade for luck very realistic. First and foremost the team with the rights to luck have arguably the greatest qb of all time on there roster; a fan and owner favorite as well. If healthy which early signs indicate he is, they have the luxury of not needing Luck for a good few years. They could get so much for the 1st pick when team like skins, cleveland, miami, seattle would likely give up min 3 first rounders to get Luck. IMO it would be downright retarded for the colts to pick luck if Manning is healthy.

WIth 3 first rounders at a minimum one likely being the #4 or #6 this year. They could easily shore up there other major needs including WR. Manning throwing to Blackmon could get scary. Not only that the most important thing is barring injuries there will be 2 #1top picks in next years draft. They could easily package a deal together with picks they get for luck if in fact they decide they need/want a top flight QB. Matt Barlkey and Tyler Bray will be NFL ready from day 1 as well, and with all the #1 picks acquired in a Luck trade they would have more than enough ammo to land either of those guys. In the mean time they could get a 2nd tier guy this year in 2-4 rounds in guys like Foles, Weeden, Cousins, Moore etc and see if any of those guys sitting and learning behind Manning look like the future, all while having the ammo for Barkley or Bray if needed.

Fact is a trade is extremely likely if Manning is 100% healthy as there is just too much for the Colts to gain if they trade the pick.

[HigSkin]

Did anybody catch the ESPN First Take clip interview of Luck after the bowl game last night?

I can't find a video link but he was asked about the possibilty of going to the Colts. His body language (throwing his head back and rolling eyes) and "whatever" comment made you think he was either really tired of answering the same questions or really disinterested in sitting behind Manning.

[Epochalypse]

Something to consider though.

Think about the Tebow situation. You risk corrupting Manning's legacy if you draft Luck, because you might divide Indianapolis. Half will want Manning to start, half will want Luck to start. Every time Manning makes the slightest mistake he'll be looking over his shoulder at Luck. Manning will be terrified of getting taken out of a game hurt for fear of being Wally Pipped. It will be uncomfortable throughout the organization and the team will suffer for it.

Not saying they won't take Luck because of this, but you have to consider the possible drawbacks.

Now consider a possible alternative for the Colts. You trade down and get a good haul of picks to rebuild around Manning, one of which you use to get a bit more raw prospect. Someone who will take a year or two to develop and isn't expected to be absolutely ready from day one but still a solid prospect to groom behind Manning, maybe even RGIII at say...6 . Manning gets to go out on his own terms, the prospect becomes the eventual starter, and the team is better all around because of the pieces gained.

Again, not saying this happens, but I think it's also a favorable outcome for the Colts.

[SlkyCaramel]

You mean this?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EIDVSPxwII8

[S.T.real,lights,out]

So i was listening to NFL radio this am. And they layed out Peytons contract pretty clearly. From the end of the season till March 8th the Colts have to either pick up Peytons option ($28 mil) or cut him. They cant trade him b/c trading doesn't start till i believe March 11th (might be wrong but i know its after Payton is due his bonus). They cant renegotiate his contract (change the $$) b/c its within 12 months of him signing it. They only thing they can possibly do is puch back the date till after the trading period starts. But Peyton and his agent would have to allow them to do that (which i dont see any way they would do that). So basically if they keep Peyton they will have to pay him him the $28 Mil bonus before the trading period starts and then $7 mil as his pay for the year.

IMO Peyton will either be kept at that price or he will be cut. He cant be traded before the bonus is due. So i cant see them paying him and the trading him. They would lose out on $28 mil.

Sorry i this was posted but this was the 1st time i had heard this. And the guy reporting this was very surprised that the bonus is due before the trading period begins. Thought this was pretty interesting.