Homer: Why the Redskins need Andrew Luck (Update: Going on 106.7 the Fan)

[Gibbsisgod2006]

So if they're not Pro Bowlers, then you're not interested? You're just going to look right past the part about players such as Jordy Nelson, Matt Forte, Jermichael Finley, Mario Manningham, Peyton Hillis, Tashard Choice, Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Kory Lichtensteiger and Fred Davis? I'm pretty sure half the teams in the league wish they could have a do-over on the bulk of the names on that list.

My point is, talent can be found anywhere. You just need the right talent evaluators in place. Now, if you're suggesting that you don't have faith in the Redskins front office to acquire talented players outside of the first round, then that's a different discussion all together ...

Either way, you're right -- disagreement is good. Especially when no one in the debate pretends to have all of the answers.

Murf your right on point you can find talent in the middle round of the draft.

[Oldfan]

So if they're not Pro Bowlers, then you're not interested? You're just going to look right past the part about players such as Jordy Nelson, Matt Forte, Jermichael Finley, Mario Manningham, Peyton Hillis, Tashard Choice, Ryan Torain, Tim Hightower, Kory Lichtensteiger and Fred Davis? I'm pretty sure half the teams in the league wish they could have a do-over on the bulk of the names on that list.

My point is, talent can be found anywhere. You just need the right talent evaluators in place. Now, if you're suggesting that you don't have faith in the Redskins front office to acquire talented players outside of the first round, then that's a different discussion all together ...

Either way, you're right -- disagreement is good. Especially when no one in the debate pretends to have all of the answers.

If your point is that talent can be found anywhere, I'll concede the point -- unless you are saying that the QB position is an exception to the rule. In fact, because the position is the toughest to project to the NFL level, it's more likely that a team can find a QB in a later round than , say, a left tackle.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 11:31 AM ----------

The hammy wasn't bad enough to prevent Garcon starting all three games along with Wayne.

Obviously.

How many times did the Colts ask Peyton to throw the rock those three games?

I have no idea.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 11:43 AM ----------

Shanny thought the same thing about our current QB's. How's that working out so far?

Forgot to add that he felt that way about Brian Griese also. That worked out great to, didn't it.

I can keep going if you want?

It's hard to tell about Beck so far because Shanny can't support him as he did Plummer or as Walsh did Steve Young.

As for Brian Greise, you have your facts wrong. Mike drafted Griese.

So, you are oh for two, but keep going if you like.

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

For the third and final time, my point is that Walsh and Shanahan obviously don't belong to the group who thinks that the QB position is all you need to know about football. They realized that Young and Plummer looked like losers because they had not been given a good supporting cast in their previous stops.

I don't think Plummer ever really looked like a "loser" in Arizona. Hell, he led Arizona to its first playoff win since Prohibition.

And - I honestly don't know what Young looked like in Tampa - because I was a kid and it was ****ing Tampa. I honestly don't think I watched Tampa play until the mid 90s. They were like a myth - like the female orgasm.

[KingGibbs]

[/color]It's hard to tell about Beck so far because Shanny can't support him as he did Plummer or as Walsh did Steve Young.

As for Brian Greise, you have your facts wrong. Mike drafted Griese.

So, you are oh for two, but keep going if you like.

He can't support Beck? He signed him to an extension and raved about him leading up to the season.

You're right. I forgot about drafting Greise.

So by my calculations I am 2 for the 3 being that you left out Grossman.

Keep going you say?

McNabb.

[Oldfan]

I am saying that most of the solid player that you need to fill your team with come from the second and or third round of the draft.

You didn't clarify your meaning. Are you saying the second and third rounds combined produce better than the first round? If so, that's probably true. It's probably also true that more starting QBs are produced from the second and third rounds combined.

I just checked the game log and they both played in that 3 game span.

Link please.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 11:56 AM ----------

He can't support Beck? He signed him to an extension and raved about him leading up to the season.

And he has been telling us repeatedly that his concern was whether he could support a QB or not.

So by my calculations I am 2 for the 3 being that you left out Grossman.

Grossman doesn't fit the Plummer-Young pattern. He was brought here to back up McNabb because he knew the scheme.

Keep going you say?

McNabb.

He doesn't fit the pattern either. He didn't fail in his previous stop like Plummer or Steve Young.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 12:00 PM ----------

i don't think plummer ever really looked like a "loser" in arizona. Hell' date=' he led arizona to its first playoff win since prohibition.[/quote'] 30-52, 69.0 qbr

[Gibbsisgod2006]

You didn't clarify your meaning. Are you saying the second and third rounds combined produce better than the first round? If so, that's probably true. It's probably also true that more starting QBs are produced from the second and third rounds combined.

Link please.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 11:56 AM ----------

And he has been telling us repeatedly that his concern was whether he could support a QB or not.

Grossman doesn't fit the Plummer-Young pattern. He was brought here to back up McNabb because he knew the scheme.

He doesn't fit the pattern either. He didn't fail in his previous stop like Plummer or Steve Young.

---------- Post added November-3rd-2011 at 12:00 PM ----------

30-52, 69.0 qbr

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010112112/2010/REG11/colts@patriots#menu=highlights&tab=recap

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010112811/2010/REG12/chargers@colts#menu=highlights&tab=recap

http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2010120510/2010/REG13/cowboys@colts#menu=highlights&tab=recap

There is a reason that the Pat's stock up on sencond and third round picks.

[pointyfootball]

http://footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2006/draft-position

From 2006 article above, starters drafted by round:

Offense

1st: 30%

2nd: 15%

3rd: 12%

4th: 9%

5th: 7%

6th: 5%

7th: 7%

Defense

1st: 27%

2nd: 19%

3rd: 13%

4th: 11%

5th: 7%

6th: 4%

7t: 4%

I totally agree that excellent players can be found in later rounds. However, as these numbers show, your chances decrease significantly, hence the reason I wouldn't think a team would spend 4 high picks to get one player, no matter his abilities.

[themurf]

http://footballoutsiders.com/nfl-draft/2006/draft-position

From 2006 article above, starters drafted by round:

Offense

1st: 30%

2nd: 15%

3rd: 12%

4th: 9%

5th: 7%

6th: 5%

7th: 7%

Defense

1st: 27%

2nd: 19%

3rd: 13%

4th: 11%

5th: 7%

6th: 4%

7t: 4%

I totally agree that excellent players can be found in later rounds. However, as these numbers show, your chances decrease significantly, hence the reason I wouldn't think a team would spend 4 high picks to get one player, no matter his abilities.

Even if nothing has changed with the NFL since 2006 (which is highly doubtful) and these numbers remain exactly the same, you're still looking at 30 percent of the league's starters coming out of the first round and 27 percent coming out of the second and third. Doesn't get much closer than that. Pretty sure you're only helping my stance that the Redskins could still acquire starters in the second and third round even if they gave up a boatload of first-round picks to get Luck.

[GibbsFactor]

All this talk about NFL quarterbacks not needing to be drafted in the first round is bunk. It if had ANY merit, teams would not draft so many quarterbacks in the first round.

Thank you.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

All this talk about NFL quarterbacks not needing to be drafted in the first round is bunk. It if had ANY merit, teams would not draft so many quarterbacks in the first round.

Thank you.

its the most coveted position, the position that hits the FA market as rarely as possible, its the highest paid position, and its the most scrutinized position.

but lets ignore all that and draft guards!

[Lombardi's_kid_brother]

About 80% of fans and media are on the Almighty Quarterback Bandwagon.

Bill Walsh obviously wasn't. He didn't give Steve Young the lion's share of the blame for the Tampa Bay Bucs 3-16 record with Young at QB. Mike Shanahan didn't put the Cardinals misfortunes all on Plummer. I could cite other experts who don't overvalue the position.

It amazes me how much you love Walsh without really paying attention to anything he did.

At one point, he had Montana, Young, and Steve Bono on his roster and was paying them all huge dollars. He valued the QB position so much that felt like he neeed three potential #1 starters on his team.

Seriously, if the league was run in the late 80s the way it is now, Bono would be the starter in some place like Jacksonville for the next five years. Back then, you could be talented and not play.

[Oldfan]

...Pretty sure you're only helping my stance that the Redskins could still acquire starters in the second and third round even if they gave up a boatload of first-round picks to get Luck.

Of course they could, but the chances of their doing it with equal success is almost nil.

[CrypticVillain]

This thread will last until at least the middle of next season. The only way it lasts longer is if Luck actually does come here.

[Oldfan]

It amazes me how much you love Walsh without really paying attention to anything he did.

At one point' date=' he had Montana, Young, and Steve Bono on his roster and was paying them all huge dollars. He valued the QB position so much that felt like he neeed three potential #1 starters on his team.

Seriously, if the league was run in the late 80s the way it is now, Bono would be the starter in some place like Jacksonville for the next five years. Back then, you could be talented and not play.[/quote']Could you quote the post where I claimed that Bill Walsh didn't think the QB position wasn't the most important on the field? That's a given.

We know, though, that Walsh didn't value the position as highly as you do, because he didn't lay the blame entirely on Steve Young for his 3-16 record with the Bucs.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Could you quote the post where I claimed that Bill Walsh didn't think the QB position wasn't the most important on the field? That's a given.

We know, though, that Walsh didn't value the position as highly as you do, because he didn't lay the blame entirely on Steve Young for his 3-16 record with the Bucs.

youre not even making sense.

fact: bill walsh valued the QB position quite highly due to the fact that he carried 3 very good ones.

fact: he saw enough in steve young that he was willing to trade a few mid round picks to acquire a guy he thought had talent despite a poor record.

what other point are you trying to make? cause youre just going in circles with this 49ers crap.

[McSkin30]

Here’s the catch in your argument. Look at the 4 years of 1st round picks Indy had after drafting Peyton Manning.

1999 – Edgerrin James, RB

2000 – Rob Morris, LB

2001 – Reggie Wayne, WR

2002 – Dwight Freeney, DE

All 4 players were starters for several years and integral to the eventual success of the Colts. I understand your point about the importance of a QB like Luck, but I think your argument ignores the value of the picks that came after Manning. I just can't agree that the Colts would have experienced the success they have had they traded those 4 picks.

[darrelgreenie]

This thread really made me think of extremeskins differently.

[Oldfan]

youre not even making sense.

fact: bill walsh valued the QB position quite highly due to the fact that he carried 3 very good ones.

fact: he saw enough in steve young that he was willing to trade a few mid round picks to acquire a guy he thought had talent despite a poor record.

what other point are you trying to make? cause youre just going in circles with this 49ers crap.

I'm making sense, just not to you. I'll admit I'm not up to that challenge.

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

I'm making sense, just not to you. I'll admit I'm not up to that challenge.

good duck job. tell me more about what bill walsh was thinking 30 years ago to validate your poor argument.

or tell me more about peyton mannings bad 3 game stretch that youre using to define his career lol.

[PeterMP]

Even if nothing has changed with the NFL since 2006 (which is highly doubtful) and these numbers remain exactly the same, you're still looking at 30 percent of the league's starters coming out of the first round and 27 percent coming out of the second and third. Doesn't get much closer than that. Pretty sure you're only helping my stance that the Redskins could still acquire starters in the second and third round even if they gave up a boatload of first-round picks to get Luck.

But you don't really just need starters on this team, but other good players. Here's where the players on the last two SportingNews all pro teams were drafted:

round #of people picked in that round

1 25

2 5

3 2

4 4

5 0

6 1

7 0

UFA 3

Note, I didn't count any player twice. A guy like Jake Long that made the last two teams was only counted once. So yes, you can get starters through out the draft, but the vast majority of really good players (guys that are really difference makers) come from the first round.

[Oldfan]

Here’s the catch in your argument. Look at the 4 years of 1st round picks Indy had after drafting Peyton Manning.

1999 – Edgerrin James, RB

2000 – Rob Morris, LB

2001 – Reggie Wayne, WR

2002 – Dwight Freeney, DE

All 4 players were starters for several years and integral to the eventual success of the Colts. I understand your point about the importance of a QB like Luck, but I think your argument ignores the value of the picks that came after Manning. I just can't agree that the Colts would have experienced the success they have had they traded those 4 picks.

Nicely done. We need you here to post more often.

[KCClybun]

Posted this in another thread. Still applies here:

Between 2000 and 2010, there's been 16 quarterbacks drafted in the top 10. 9 out of those 16 are currently starting for teams. Carson Palmer was retired until a week ago, and Michael Vick was incarcerated. Neither Carson Palmer or Michael Vick were drafted by the teams who they play for now. (I'll give Eli Manning and Phillip Rivers a pass in that area). That puts your odds of scoring a franchise quarterback that sticks with his original football team at 50%. Coin flip, basically.

Between 2000 and 2010, there have been 13 quarterbacks drafted outside of the top 10 in the first round. 6 of them are currently starting. Jason Campbell was starting for the Oakland Raiders, but he was originally drafted by us. That puts the odds of finding your franchise quarterback quarterback outside the top to at about 46%. Again, basically, a coin flip. There's more risk, but not a LOT more risk.

Since 2000, only one quarterback drafted in the first 10 picks has made it to the Super Bowl. (Eli Manning.) Three quarterbacks picked in the first ten picks have made it to a conference championship game. (Eli, Vick and Rivers).

Since 2000, two quarterbacks picked outside the first 10 picks have made it to the Super Bowl and won. (Big Ben and Aaron Rodgers). Four of those quarterbacks have been in conference championship games. (Big Ben, Aaron Rodgers, Jay Cutler, Joe Flacco).

It's not about WHERE they are picked. It is about WHO you pick. Period. Losing and getting a top ten pick does not magically guarantee you will have more success than if you drafted someone outside the top 10. (Nor does trading up, in this case, especially giving up four first rounders.)

And the other thing I'm wrote in the "we should trade up for luck" thread...quarterbacks who have won Super Bowls since 2000.

2000--Baltimore Ravens--Trent Dilfer--1st Round, 6th Overall (Originally drafted by Tampa Bay Buccaneers)

2001,2003,2004--New England Patriots--Tom Brady--6th Round, 199th Overall

2002--Tampa Bay Buccaneers--Brad Johnson---9th Round (jesus), 227th Overall (Originally drafted by the Minnesota Vikings)

2005, 2008--Pittsburgh Steelers--Ben Roethlisberger---1st Round, 11th Overall

2006--Indianapolis Colts--Peyton Manning---1st Round, 1st Overall

2007--New York Giants--Eli Manning---1st Round, 1st Overall, (Originally drafted by San Diego Chargers)

2009--New Orleans Saints--Drew Brees---Round 2, 32nd Overall, (Originally drafted by San Diego Chargers)

2010--Green Bay Packers--Aaron Rodgers---Round 1, 24th Overall

And for arguments sake, let's look at the quarterbacks who those people faced in the Super Bowl.

2000--New York Giants--Kerry Collins---Round 1, 5th Overall (Originally drafted by Carolina Panthers)

2001--St. Louis Rams--Kurt Warner---Undrafted Free Agent (Originally signed by the Green Bay Packers)

2002--Oakland Raiders--Rich Gannon---Round 4, 99th Overall (Originally drafted by Minnesota Vikings)

2003--Carolina Panthers--Jake Delhomme--Undrafted Free Agent (Originally signed by New Orleans Saints)

2004--Philadelphia Eagles--Donovan McNabb---Round 1, 2nd Overall

2005--Seattle Seahawks--Matt Hasselbeck---Round 6, 184th Overall (Originally drafted by Green Bay Packers)

2006--Chicago Bears--Rex Grossman---Round 1, 22nd Overall

2007--New England Patriots---Tom Brady

2008--Arizona Cardinals---Kurt Warner

2009--Indianapolis Colts--Peyton Manning, 1st Round, 1st Overall

2010--Pittsburgh Steelers--Ben Roethlisberger

And for further arguments sake, let's take a look at the quarterbacks of the AFC and NFC Championship Games

2000--Daunte Culpepper (Round 1, 11th Overall), Rich Gannon (See above)

2001--Kordell Stewart (Round 2, 60th Overall), Donovan McNabb

2002--Steve McNair (Round 1, 3rd Overall), McNabb Again

2003--Peyton Manning, McNabb Again

2004--Michael Vick (Round 1, 1st Overall), Big Ben

2005--Jake Delhomme, Jake Plummer (Round 2, 42nd overall, Originally drafted by Cardinals, playing for Broncos here)

2006--Drew Brees, Tom Brady

2007--Brett Favre (Round 2, 32nd Overall), Tom Brady

2008--McNabb again, Joe Flacco (Round 1, 18th Overall)

2009--Brett Favre, Mark Sanchez (Round 1, 5th Overall)

2010--Jay Cutler (Round 1, 11th Overall, originally drafted by Denver Broncos, playing for Bears), Mark Sanchez

And now, every quarterback taken first overall since 2000.

2001---Michael Vick

2002---David Carr (Houston Texans)

2003---Carson Palmer (Cincinatti Bengals)

2004---Eli Manning

2005---Alex Smith (San Fransisco 49ers)

2007---JaMarcus Russell

2009---Matthew Stafford (Detroit Lions)

2010---Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)

2011---Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)

Now, with all this info in tact, speaking in EXTREME generalities, what are some things people notice?

1.) Since 2000, only two quarterbacks who were drafted 1st overall have won a Super Bowl.

2.) In the same time period, only two quarterbacks who were drafted 1st overall have made it to the Super Bowl.

3.) 1st overall picks are tied with Undrafted Free Agents when it comes to making it to a Super Bowl. (Kurt Warner made it to 2 in a decade, as did Peyton Manning.)

4.) Excluding Newton, Bradford and Stafford, since the 2000 NFL Draft, only three quarterbacks selected first overall have made it to the playoffs. Only two (Vick and Eli) have won a playoff game. Only one has made it to and won a Super Bowl.

5.) More quarterbacks who weren't originally drafted by the teams they played for in the Super Bowl have made it to the Super Bowl (9) than 1st overall picks. 4 of those quarterbacks have won Super Bowls...which is still more than quarterbacks drafted first overall.

6.) Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger both have more rings than either of the two first overall picks who have one a Super Bowl in the last decade. They have also made it to more Super Bowls than Eli and Peyton. (Brady has gone to four, Big Ben to three).

So really? We HAVE to trade four first rounders for one guy?

History says otherwise...

[Hitman21ST]

I'm making sense, just not to you. I'll admit I'm not up to that challenge.

Why do you figure, then, that he had 3 starting-caliber QBs on the same roster at the same time, if he didn't view it as if the Quarterback was the position that could make the most difference, by far?

[Brandon Lloyd Christmas]

Here’s the catch in your argument. Look at the 4 years of 1st round picks Indy had after drafting Peyton Manning.

1999 – Edgerrin James, RB

2000 – Rob Morris, LB

2001 – Reggie Wayne, WR

2002 – Dwight Freeney, DE

All 4 players were starters for several years and integral to the eventual success of the Colts. I understand your point about the importance of a QB like Luck, but I think your argument ignores the value of the picks that came after Manning. I just can't agree that the Colts would have experienced the success they have had they traded those 4 picks.

yet after morris was no longer a starter, and james had gone, they were still going 13-3 every year and going to the playoffs?

and you do realize that mathis and freeney are both one trick ponies, neither can stop the run to save their life, and the only reason their pass rush skills have been utilized in indy is because most teams are playing catch up against them so they dont have to worry about the run?

manning is the difference there. the whole team fell apart without him. its as clear as day people.

[Gibbsisgod2006]

Bottom line the skins need a qb bad and honestly if the skins have the opportunity to get Luck then they should jump on it. Everybody on this board will cry about the skins giving up so many picks for Luck but if he was taking us to the playoffs consistently. I guarantee everyone would forget about the picks we gave up for him.