John Beck: Our Franchise QB ...

[Luca Brasi]

We can only hope that this turns out like the rest of your threads ASF; complete bull**** and 100% wrong.

[red dot in a sea of blue]

This thread is so stupid I'm actually mad at myself for reading it, and embarrassed for reading any of the responses (in my defense I was hoping someone would say something as scathing as these stats are stupid, but I guess when you're throwing up the dumbest possible argument maybe ever it's hard to do anything but either take it seriously, or as most smarter-than-me people did, just ignore it all together.)

Numbers don't lie, but statistics will say anything that you want them to say... ASF must work for Fox"news" with his stat-bending abilities. Now if you'll excuse me I'm going to read the 30 other "John Beck" threads that will get merged and the posters chastised for posting them, while this abortion-of-logic-and-common-sense will remain untouched for some reason...

Also, I hope the redskins win tomorrow, but who cares about that when personal "I like this guy better than that guy" pride is on the line, right?

[LadySkinsFan]

Since Beck is now the starting QB, how come no one is thinking about why Shanahan has only 2 QBs on the roster. I mean, what if Beck is really bad and now there is no one to turn to except Rex to come off the bench.

I hate our team being a laughing stock. Hopefully, this will get fixed next year and the year after.

[Gibbs Hog Heaven]

Identifying unproven talent and developing it is the hallmark of great teams. In two years, there hasn't been a single prospect worth developing at the most important position on the team?

Not that we could get that Coach Mike liked. We went in hard for Bradford in year one. Didn't have enough ammo. Last year, the Titans surprised us and took Locker from our grasp. Outside of those two, by all accounts, he didn't rate anyone else sufficiently to make a move.

If the HC doesn't like what's there and they aren't 'his guy', why would you reach just for the sake of it? That's totally asinine and in many cases worse than sticking pat with what you have and waiting.

So next year we start over at QB? Doesn't that practically force the Skins to use their 1st round pick on a QB and start him whether or not he is ready?

See above. We've been left with little choice. And being as anyone being realistic would have this thing taking the full initial 5 years of Shanahan's contract to turn around and have us in a position to seriously challenge again, what would the big deal be in putting the most important piece on the team in place in year 3; and seeing him and everything else start to blossom years 4 and 5?

Out of interest, what do you think, or more pertinently who do you think we should of taken/ picked-up?

Hail.

[quettefan]

I am just sitting back and laughing at the different opinions everyone has. Some are pro-rex, some are pro-beck. And then there is me and my wait and see approach.

and then there are those like me who have seen enough and are just anti-Grossman

[tiger187126]

so this is what an ASF "i was wrong about grossman" thread looks like.

interesting.

[huskerbear]

It had to come to this eventually. The media started the John Beck tidal wave over the summer and the fans rode the wave to where we are now. With the lack of talent around the quarterback in washington I figured before the season that both Rex and John would get some starts. I know Rex has been a whipping boy in the media and that has surely affected the fans view on him. Redskins fans were painted a pretty picture of mystery man John Beck.

As a Bears fan I can understand fans wanting to latch onto an unknown especially when told how great he can be. So many years waiting for the saviour. The Bears wrote the book on playing the next guy because he might be "the guy". My brothers a Dolphins fan so I'm familiar with Beck. Like iv'e been saying for awhile............be carefull what you wish for, you might just get it. Redskins fans get what they have wanted all along, John Beck as the starting quarterback.............

At the end of the day I believe Grossman will end up having a much better career the Beck, I'm pretty sure of that. You guys should go draft someone though, you know, the next saviour. Don't see Rex working out there, I don't know, maybe if you had some better recievers.............Good luck Sunday, Beck should at least get off to a good start.

[Lavarleap56]

As much bunkum as an ASF thread is (and this one is so obviously laden in sarcastic irony it's positively dripping onto your screen surrounded by flashing red lights); you have to give the man credit for continuing to get folk at a frenzy in replying whilst he sit's there laughing his rear off at y'all.

When a guy openly admits he (paraphrasing) "puts threads out there to get a rise out of folk and stir **** up"; it never ceases to amaze how people walk straight into that trap in replying, and worse, taking these threads seriously. You want serious football talk out of ASF? (And he can be a pretty knowledgeable poster when he wants to be.). Don't give any credence to the manipulative, stat skewing threads he puts up for his own entertainment and wait to engage him in other threads when he's being serious. Keep replying, and they'll keep going up.

It's complete and utter bunkum. But it's brilliant bunkum as it gets the desired reaction.

Oh, and to those NNT ****ing and moaning in here, the OP, as ridiculous as it is, hasn't broken any rules. Love it or hate it, ASF has a right to post what he wants under those rules. You could argue that a lot of his threads to get a reaction are akin to trolling, but that's for those that moderate this site, some of the fairest, level headed moderators you could wish to find, to determine. Not you or I. And if your pissed at your own NNT status, I suggest you go read the rules at the top of the front page, see where you messed up, and take the appropriate course of action to rectify that.

Or you could just ***** and moan and continue to have no thread posting privileges.

Hail.

You would think people would get this by now Gibbs. Alot of posters can't wait to attack a ASF thread the moment he hits post. I Find alot of these post amusing but you can't deny alot of thought and effort goes into them.

[skinsmania123]

Uhhhh No OP. That is why they say, "lies, damn lies and statistics". You take any numbers and scenarios and "spin" the outcome.

How about this dude. Compile stats for the next 5 starts in official games as a Skin for Beck and then compare them to Sexy Rexy's first five starts. Even that is not a fair comparison but it is a helluva lot better then this comparison. Pfffft!

[RomanSkin]

.

"

In honor of John Beck's first start as a Redskin, I've put together a little tribute.

[cut]

[cut]

.

Nice job, but i'm sorry to say that, for me, it has no scientific value. Tto few cases to make a statistic of any rellevance, to many variaboles and no isolation of indipendent variaboles.

I'm quite sure that if you analyze the college carier of beck you can have quite different evidences.

What you can say at the moment is that drom the numeber we have we don't know which kind of quarterback Beck is going to be.

All imho.

[sportjunkie07]

this thread is amusing.

sadly, some people do read into shanny's comments and think Beck is qb of the future.

i just hope he isnt worse than what rex was. maybe he'll bring some fire to the offense? maybe a change in qb style will help out the team for the next few games.

[mike42]

Give Beck a break. poor oline = inconsistent qb. To my memory, 07 Miami QBs position changes 3 times with similar poor results, leading a concern about the offense in general on a coaching/player level, it's difficult to blame the QBs that season.

[Skinsinparadise]

As much bunkum as an ASF thread is (and this one is so obviously laden in sarcastic irony it's positively dripping onto your screen surrounded by flashing red lights); you have to give the man credit for continuing to get folk at a frenzy in replying whilst he sit's there laughing his rear off at y'all.

I've made a similar point before, the only things to play devils advocate would be for a guy touting stats, his posts are rarely balanced, and he can get very hard core argumentative and then when things turn the other way, he will do the "well I didn't really mean it anyway I just wanted to see how people responded"

[Dannyc]

As much bunkum as an ASF thread is (and this one is so obviously laden in sarcastic irony it's positively dripping onto your screen surrounded by flashing red lights); you have to give the man credit for continuing to get folk at a frenzy in replying whilst he sit's there laughing his rear off at y'all.

When a guy openly admits he (paraphrasing) "puts threads out there to get a rise out of folk and stir **** up"; it never ceases to amaze how people walk straight into that trap in replying, and worse, taking these threads seriously. You want serious football talk out of ASF? (And he can be a pretty knowledgeable poster when he wants to be.). Don't give any credence to the manipulative, stat skewing threads he puts up for his own entertainment and wait to engage him in other threads when he's being serious. Keep replying, and they'll keep going up.

It's complete and utter bunkum. But it's brilliant bunkum as it gets the desired reaction.

Oh, and to those NNT ****ing and moaning in here, the OP, as ridiculous as it is, hasn't broken any rules. Love it or hate it, ASF has a right to post what he wants under those rules. You could argue that a lot of his threads to get a reaction are akin to trolling, but that's for those that moderate this site, some of the fairest, level headed moderators you could wish to find, to determine. Not you or I. And if your pissed at your own NNT status, I suggest you go read the rules at the top of the front page, see where you messed up, and take the appropriate course of action to rectify that.

Or you could just ***** and moan and continue to have no thread posting privileges.

Hail.

So what you're saying is that he's a troll? I'm pretty sure that's against the rules.

12. No trolling. Beware of making baiting posts.

[BucketHTTR]

Or you could just ***** and moan and continue to have no thread posting privileges.

Hail.

Why do you need to make new threads when the usual around here seems to just hijack other ones to get your point across? It's been working pretty well.

[Fuzzy Dunlop]

Its embarrassing that these donks were our two options.

[Newera]

ASF just has a hard to admitting he's not right about something. He was wrong abour Rex. Trying to justify it with lawyering Google magic. I get the impression ASF would rather see Beck struggle and the Redskins suffer to jusity his opinion of "Being Right" and always giving the impression he knows more then everybody else. Is that really a fan. Needless to say, his threads are always charged, controversial and even fun. I think Beck is going to surprise and get better and better and make taking a quarterback in the first less of a priority. Not going to get Luck, Tannenhill is probably going to shoot up the boards. Will probably look at people like Keenum, Moore, Griffin, etc.

[Destino]

ASF might be right about Beck. He might also be completely wrong. We'll know after Beck starts 5 games and have an apples to apples comparison between him and Rex Grossman. He has to do better than this:

In 5 games Rexy did this:

92/165 55.8% 1,132yards 6.9avg 6TD 9Int 2/2Fumble/lost 66.5rating

Beck will have the following 5 games to match Rex this season:

@Carolina

@Buffalo (toronto)

San Fan

@Miami

Dallas

At most one of these two is on the roster next season. Beck is literally playing for his job as was Rex. I'm hoping Beck does more with his opportunity.

[BeefJerky]

I wish beck the best, and hope he lights a fire under this offense. Remember Kurt Warner went from bagging groceries to super bowl M.V.P. I'm not saying Beck will do the same, just give the guy a chance.

[theTruthTeller]

Not that we could get that Coach Mike liked. We went in hard for Bradford in year one. Didn't have enough ammo. Last year, the Titans surprised us and took Locker from our grasp. Outside of those two, by all accounts, he didn't rate anyone else sufficiently to make a move.

If the HC doesn't like what's there and they aren't 'his guy', why would you reach just for the sake of it? That's totally asinine and in many cases worse than sticking pat with what you have and waiting.

See above. We've been left with little choice. And being as anyone being realistic would have this thing taking the full initial 5 years of Shanahan's contract to turn around and have us in a position to seriously challenge again, what would the big deal be in putting the most important piece on the team in place in year 3; and seeing him and everything else start to blossom years 4 and 5?

Out of interest, what do you think, or more pertinently who do you think we should of taken/ picked-up?

Hail.

As I said before, I don't think a lot of the qbs currently in the top half of the league were initially players that the coaches thought would be franchise qbs. I'm pretty sure Bellichek wouldn't have let Brady slide to the sixth round if he know what he was getting. Over a third of the top 16 were taken in the sixth and seventh rounds. But if you take NO ONE, you end up getting cast-offs, which is exactly what's happening now.

Players that have been available in some form during the Shanallen era:

Vince Young (could start right away)

Colt McCoy (would have required a small trade up from the fourth, because the third round pick was gone)

Ed. note: UT is one of my alma matters - does it show?

I don't have a personal scouting department. But if I did, and I was affiliated with the Skins, I'd tell them to be on the lookout for talent that could be drafted in the low rounds or taken from someones practice squad and developed. Beck would be fine if he were 23. But he's 30 and he's played five games in the last 3.5 years. Personally, I'd rather have Leinart than Beck. But there should always be someone on the team that's being developed. If it doesn't work out, then that person spends some time on the inactive roster. But if it does work out, its magic.

[BucketHTTR]

So what you're saying is that he's a troll? I'm pretty sure that's against the rules.

12. No trolling. Beware of making baiting posts.

Yep, I agree... I guess the rules favor some, more then others. If I would of made this same topic, I would of been punished lol.

[Pedro]

i just hope he isnt worse than what rex was.

Exactly how do you think any replacement for Rex could be worse?

Rex is fat and out of shape as well as a crap QB. Anyone else brought in will at worst only be a crap QB.

[wildbill]

And ASF strikes again! Nicely done bruddah, nicely done.....

[Enter Apotheosis]

Although, this thread of brilliance is accepted? I love my Redskins, but holy funk... Redskin fans are idiots

In the court of public opinion the premises of ASF's threads aren't really accepted by anyone who takes the time to read them. He does follow the rules, however, and he puts a substantial amount of effort in to his own baloney so his threads don't get shut down.

Wait til you NNTed for life without much reason and no chance of being let out. Good times, good times.

If you demonstrate that you understand why you received your NNT, you will generally have it removed. If you demonstrate that you are unwilling to be cooperative and learn the rules of the board or you are downright unreasonable, whiny, and combative then you're just digging yourself a big hole.

2nd best? Es is just like any other community and has a good mix of every personality type you can think of.

I'm curious as to what he thinks the best is.

Why do you need to make new threads when the usual around here seems to just hijack other ones to get your point across? It's been working pretty well.

If you make quality, substantive threads people tend to be more cooperative, although there are bound to be idiots in every thread owing to the sheer population size of the board.

Yep, I agree... I guess the rules favor some, more then others. If I would of made this same topic, I would of been punished lol.

No, you would have been lambasted for using flawed logic. Don't be dense. If this experience is teaching you anything it should be that you do not know the rules or culture of the board as well as you thought you did.

[Atlanta Skins Fan]

ASF just has a hard to admitting he's not right about something. He was wrong abour Rex. Trying to justify it with lawyering Google magic. I get the impression ASF would rather see Beck struggle and the Redskins suffer to jusity his opinion of "Being Right" and always giving the impression he knows more then everybody else. Is that really a fan. Needless to say, his threads are always charged, controversial and even fun. I think Beck is going to surprise and get better and better and make taking a quarterback in the first less of a priority. Not going to get Luck, Tannenhill is probably going to shoot up the boards. Will probably look at people like Keenum, Moore, Griffin, etc.

You're oversimplifying my reaction, so let me set the record straight. It's more that I've been wrong about a variety of contributing factors: assumptions I made that have not proved true. I took a "glass half full" view of Rex that depended on other facets of the offense. These facets either never showed up or have since broken down.

In preseason, I thought Rex could lead this team to the playoffs, and I made these assumptions:

1. Rushing game would be strong, led by Tim Hightower (as we saw in preseason), balancing the passing game by forcing defenses to sell out against the run.
   
2. Hightower in the game would improve pass protection (he's very good at pass pro) and also give Rex a reliable pass-catching option at RB ... and that Kyle and Rex would use this option.
   
3. Cooley would come back from injury and play like the Cooley we've known in prior years.
   
4. Davis would develop and work in tandem with Cooley for a very strong 2-TE set.
   
5. Moss would be reliable and also be an occasional deep threat like he was for Brunell in 2005.
   
6. Armstrong as #3 receiver would be on the field every game and stretch the field in passing situations, building on his very strong 2010 season.
   
7. Brown would be a rock at RT, fully recovered now from his 2009 injury.
   
8. TW would lock down LT and show his talent more than he did in 2010.
   
9. Improved players at interior OL would allow Rex the passing lanes he needs to succeed, while also providing a better short-yardage rushing game.
   

After 5 games, none of these things has happened (or they have completely broken down). To review:

1. When rushing, Hightower has been a shadow of the player we saw in preseason. Now with the injuries to LG and LT, the rushing game will degenerate quickly, as we saw against the Eagles.
   
2. Hightower hasn't been used as a receiving target. Torain rushed well against the Rams, but isn't strong at pass protection and is not a reliable receiver. Helu is a work in progress.
   
3. Cooley's done for 2011, maybe for his career. To my eyes, he was done even before fracturing his finger.
   
4. Davis started hot, but had a horrible game against the Eagles. He hasn't learned to use his big body and athleticism to win battles against safeties. On the first INT by the Eagles, Davis had position for the catch, but Coleman just leaped over him for the ball. (This play also took out Lichtensteiger. Retaliation by Trent Williams on the play probably led to the dirty play later that took out Williams.) On the third INT by the Eagles, Davis failed to cross in front of Coleman, allowing Coleman to jump in front of him. Later a drop by Davis on a deep pass led to Rex's 4th interception on third down, two plays later. Those three plays by Davis were arguably the gamebreakers, leading directly to three INTs in addition to missed scoring opportunities. I haven't given up on Davis, but he looks like a talented player who needs better coaching and better focus on the field.
   
5. Moss has lost his speed. That's sad to see. I really like Santana, but he no longer has the speed to break open games or scare defenses.
   
6. Armstrong missed games 3 - 5, and his absence really hurt the passing game in obvious passing situations.
   
7. Brown has looked very poor on many plays and is the root cause of breakdowns for many plays (including the Grossman fumble late in the Cowboys game). This will be a lingering problem if Brown can't get back to his pre-injury level. The team is paying him more than they are getting in return.
   
8. Trent Williams has been inconsistent, sometimes playing well (against Ware) and sometime poorly. He has a $10m cap hit in 2011 and a $13m cap hit in 2012. There are LTs in the NFL who are paid a lot less and playing better. The Redskins need to see better return from their investments in both LT and RT. Now with Trent out, the situation at LT is likely to get worse in the near term.
   
9. The starting interior OL has played fairly well for pass protection and zone stretch runs, but look completely overmatched in short yardage situations. It's a problem when 3rd and 1 is a passing down, which it is for the Redskins, and that's on the interior OL's lack of raw power. While that's a manageable problem, now the injury to Lichtensteiger has ruined the original strength of the trio, putting Montgomery at LG (where he had a horrible game against the Eagles), and bringing in Cook at center. I expect Cook to be overpowered as teams game-plan against him.
   

All these factors together have shredded my assumptions going into the season, leaving Rex exposed in the last few games and especially the Eagles game. While it's true that injuries are part of football, I certainly didn't expect so many contributing factors to go wrong, so soon in the 2011 season.

While this is sufficient explanation for the deviance in Rex's play, it's not all on other players. There are a few plays by Rex that stand out as concerns about Rex himself:

• Throwing on the move, while rolling left. I knew Rex was a pocket passer, but I didn't appreciate how horrible he is when rolling left. Of all the scorn heaped on Rex, this is where it's deserved. He's straight hot garbage rolling left. It's a problem in an offense that emphasizes the bootleg so much. I'm picturing the horrible throw against the Rams, rolling left, and also the 4th INT against the Eagles, which came off a broken play, forcing him out of the pocket to the left.
  
• Decision making on broken plays. Rex is best with timing passes and throwing on rhythm. He's had countless good and excellent plays in this mode. However, if a play breaks down, he doesn't know what to do. He has no mobility, so can't advance the ball with his legs. He doesn't check down to the RB very frequently. He's completely incapable of generating the kind of sandlot plays we see from some of the great QBs. Vick has about 5 such plays a game, and even Romo sits to pee managed to kill the Redskins on 3rd and 21, on a pure sandlot play, flushed out of the pocket, throwing to Dez Bryant.
  
• Arm strength and throwing to the sideline. Rex has basically avoided throwing to the sidelines this year. In Chicago he threw frequently to the sidelines, so I'm not sure exactly why he's not doing this now. The reasonable assumption is lack of arm strength to complete the passes.
  
• Lack of screen pass production. Kyle calls many fewer screen passes for Rex, compared to Beck. A few have been called inside the hashes, but the plays have been broken up the defense. Beck throws a nice quick screen pass to the WRs split wide, but I haven't seen this much from Rex. The lack of screen pass production is an important missing ingredient in the offense. I have to assume that at least some of this is on Rex.
  
• Accuracy on deep passes. Rex looked much more accurate than Beck on deep passes in preseason, but in the regular season games he hasn't been able to hit his deep receivers in stride, on many occasions. That could be arm strength, or lack of timing with receivers. It's a big problem, because Rex is the sort of QB whose production depends on at least a couple of deep pass completions each game.
  

Taken by themselves, these are not fatal faults by Rex, but they are sufficiently lethal in combination with the busted assumptions I outlined earlier in this post.

Going forward, I think games against the Bills and the 49ers are likely to be ugly for this offense, regardless who is at QB. I have a hard time seeing how the offense is going to bounce back from losing Lichtensteiger and Williams at LG and LT. The rushing game will likely collapse, and pass protection will be inconsistent. In these situations, it's probably best to roll with Beck, who can at least give the defense something else to think about, with all the bootlegs and his foot speed. Beck will also use the screen passing game and checkdowns to RBs more effectively than Grossman will. On this basis and also because I was concerned about toxic fan negativity (home fans booing their QB), I actually made the argument to start Beck against the Panthers.

I think Beck has a good shot of having a great game against the Panthers. If he does that, he could carry some momentum into the Bills and 49ers games. I think those games are his Waterloo, but he's got his shot to prove himself. If he does, more power to him. I'm a Redskins fan before I'm a Rex fan.

However, I do think it's just a matter of time before the music stops for Beck. That was the reason for this thread. Drop-back passing is job #1 for NFL QBs. There's only so long that Beck can hide the fact that he's not really an NFL QB when it comes to drop-back passing and standing in against the rush. Teams will figure out that they can force bad decisions by overloading the rush, and that they can spook Beck into running out of the pocket. Once he's flushed from the pocket, we'll see the sacks and the fumbles. Teams will game plan to create the bad decisions: rushed passes, and flushing Beck into traps.

Where does this lead? It leads to putting Grossman back in the game as starter at some point this year. And it leads to the Redskins drafting their true franchise QB in the 2012 draft.

I'm all in for the Redskins going all in for their QB next April. That should tell you where I am on Grossman going forward. I think he's the best starter for 2011, but needs a level of surrounding talent that right now the team can't give him. I'd like to see him back on the field later this year, to prove his case that he's the guy to take forward in 2012, in tandem with the true franchise QB we get in the draft. John Beck should move on to his

.

That's my "fair and balanced" view of things, without all the goofs with charts and stats and photos. That's just entertainment. Also, I'm a sucker for funny thread titles that lead the masses to run for their torches and pitch forks. :evilg: