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John Beck: Our Franchise QB ...


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"I can remember as a kid and through junior high watching [Dan Marino] play; seeing a fire in his eyes. That fire was just a competitor wanting to win more than anything. And when I put that Dolphins uniform on, I want to have that fire in my eyes. I'm going to do anything I can to find a way to win.... I'm a Dolphin."

- John Beck, April 30, 2007

In honor of John Beck's first start as a Redskin, I've put together a little tribute.

Ball Security: I Haz It

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"You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time ... unless you're John Beck.

-Abraham Lincoln

There are two things everyone knows about John Beck:

  1. John Beck is all about ball security, unlike Rex Grossman.
  2. John Beck is a complete unknown. No one has any idea what kind of QB he is.

These facts are self-evident. For example, we've watched Grossman for two years now, and we know who Grossman is. He's a turnover machine. By contrast, John Beck is all about ball security, but he's not thrown enough passes in the NFL to know what kind of QB he might be.

So, let's look at some numbers:

beck-vs-grossman-impact-plays.gif

These are roughly the last 300 NFL passes thrown by Beck and Grossman. For Beck I tabulated every pass thrown since 2007, including preseason games. For Grossman I used all regular season games, 2010-2011.

Stats show that Beck is sacked on 11.4% of his attempts, and fumbles on 4.6% of attempts. His combined fumble + interception percentage is higher than Grossman's. His passing TD% is less than half that of Grossman's.

Put this together, and we can see high-impact plays overall:

  • Negative Impact Plays (IFS: Interceptions, Fumbles, Sacks)
  • Positive Impact Plays (TDs)

Negative Impact Plays Per Passing TD:

  • Beck: 9.5
  • Grossman: 2.8

In plain English:

  • For every passing TD, Beck has 9.5 big negative plays.
  • For every passing TD, Rex has 2.8 big negative plays.

The irony about all the criticisms of Grossman (turnover machine, poor pocket presence) is that Beck actually has less ball security (factoring fumbles), and takes many more sacks, despite his mobility and higher athleticism. He's also thrown for less than half of Rex's TD percentage.

What would Beck's stats look like for a full season?

In 2010, the median starting NFL QB threw 33.5 passes per game, which projects to 536 passes for a 16-game season. To put Beck's and Grossman's stats in more familiar context, I normalized their stats by projecting them across a 536-pass season:

beck-vs-grossman-normalized-536att.gif

John Beck's projected 16-game season:

  • 61 sacks
  • 25 fumbles
  • 14 interceptions
  • 11 passing TDs

I realize that this will fall on deaf ears at ES, where nearly 80% of members are ready to saddle up with Beck for the rest of the season. That's fine. Why?

I think Beck has a shot of having a very good first game against the Panthers. As a Redskins fan, I want the team to beat the Panthers, so I want a good game from Beck. On Sunday, I'm rooting for Beck.

So, let's call John Beck our Franchise QB ... for the next 48 hours.

Enjoy the show. Party like it's 2007. :)

The following is a true story.

John Beck: Our Franchise QB

by Matty I on May 2, 2007 12:03 AM EDT

Everyone wanted Miami to select Brady Quinn and let him be this team's franchise quarterback. They didn't. Everyone thought that the Dolphins missed their opportunity to get their franchise QB, the piece of the puzzle this team has missed since Dan Marino retired. They didn't.

Instead, the drafted exactly who they wanted to be this team's franchise quarterback. He didn't play at an over-hyped college and didn't get overhyped himself by the media leading up to the draft. And we, as Dolphin fans, should be happy about that. GM Randy Mueller:

"I would cringe whenever I turned on a TV and saw Beck being mentioned. I didn't want anyone talking about him at all. I didn't want any team to know what we thought of him and another team maybe taking him."

This could explain why the Dolphins, while trading text messages with John Beck towards the mid to late 1st round, were also looking to trade up in the draft to select Beck. It's been reported that Mueller tried as many as 3 times to move up into the late 1st round to secure Beck but with no luck.

However, luck was shining on the Dolphins on that fateful Saturday. When Miami's 2nd round pick (#40 overall) came up, their man was still on the board. John Beck was selected as the Miami Dolphins' franchise quarterback. Like many of you, I questioned the decision. However, after reading up on him and listening to him talk, I don't see how you can not be a huge John Beck fan already!

So let's talk a little bit about him, shall we? Here's part of the scouting report on Beck from NFL.com:

Very intelligent player who has no problem executing a complicated game plan ... Student of the game who breaks down opposing film and does a good job of making adjustments on the field ... Plays through pain and shows very good poise in the pocket and confidence in his protection, as it is rare to see him bolt too early, as he will stand tall and take some shots under pressure ... Has good throwing mechanics and sets his feet with agility and solid base ... Even with just average timed speed, his feet appear light when forced to move out of the pocket ... In 2006, he received much better pocket protection, allowing him to take his time making reads to locate secondary targets ... Displays awareness to anticipate when the receiver is coming out of the breaks ... With his three-quarters delivery and natural hands, Beck is very effective at getting the ball out quickly ... Shows very good arm whip to get the ball out in time to hit the receivers coming out of their breaks ... In the short-to-intermediate area, Beck's tosses show good zip and velocity.

Of course, everyone wants to talk about how he doesn't have good arm strength. And even though it says right in the above scouting report that "Beck's tosses show good zip," people still question him. And you can tell this gets under hi skin. The media has been continually asking him about it. And his response is usually along the lines of, "You can call up my receivers at BYU and ask them about my arm strength." He says that he could "gun it in there" anytime he wants but that he was taught if you don't have to gun it, then don't. It's easier to catch and more accurate if you don't throw rockets when you don't have to. There are also reports that he as thrown the ball from the 45 yard line from his knees through the uprights. Sounds good to me. But if you want facts to back this up, here you go. First, at the combine, John Beck's ball speed was a tremendous 61.1 mph, according to this USA Today article. That was second best among all QBs who threw at the Combine (Russell and Quinn did not throw). Compare that to Drew Stanton's 55.7 or Trent Edwards' 55.2. Oh, and last year when Jay Cutler "wowed" everybody with his arm, he threw it just over 60 mph. Beck out-gunned Cutler. If that isn't enough, I offer you this

:

So, case closed on that arm strength issue that so many people want to talk about.

Next, people criticize the fact that he didn't play elite competition at BYU. It's true that he didn't play elite competition all the time, but he did have many big games against very good teams. Here are a few of them over the past 2 seasons at BYU. I chose to look at 3 games in each season. In 2005, he played at Notre Dame (end of season rank #9 in AP and #11 in Coaches), home against TCU (end of season rank #11 in AP and #9 in Coaches), and their Bowl Game against Cal (ranked #25 in both polls). In 2006, BYU played at TCU, whose defense was ranked in the top 10 in the country. Oh, and in that game, Beck played with 2 sprained ankles that both had to be taped up. See the video below to watch highlights from that game. BYU also played at Boston College (finished season ranked #20 in both polls) and a Bowl Game against Oregon. Here are his stats in these games:

Here's the 2006 video of BYU vs TCU with Beck playing with 2 sprained, taped ankles.

And if you still need more convincing that Beck really does have the makings of a franchise quarterback, all you need to do is listen to him talk. The following is a transcript from the end of an interview Beck did with Joe Rose of 790 The Ticket on Monday morning after being drafted. You can listen to the whole thing at their website, but here's the very end:

Beck: They gave me the playbook yesterday and on the flight home I already started memorizing it, preparing myself because, hey, Thursday they fly me in and Friday practice starts. So I want to make the most out of every opportunity I have and I want to prepare myself the best I can. I'm stepping into something that's going to be different from where I came from because the NFL level is different. I want to be like a sponge, soak up everything I possibly can. I also want to be as tough as I possibly can and just go out there and compete.

I also made a comment yesterday about Dan Marino; how I can remember as a kid and through junior high watching him play; seeing a fire in his eyes. That fire was just a competitor wanting to win more than anything. And when I put that Dolphins uniform on, I want to have that fire in my eyes. I'm going to do anything I can to find a way to win.

Rose: Wow, I'll tell you, I'll play with you right now. Let's go out there and line up, kid. I'm ready to go. Hey, I promise you, John, I will never call you at home again and thank you so much for being with us this morning.

Beck: It was my pleasure. And you know what? If you do need to call me, go ahead and give me a call. I'm a Dolphin.

I can't wait to see this guy in action. Something tells me that Cameron and Mueller found a special player who is going to give us Dolphin fans something to cheer about for a long time!!

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I'm not sure that Beck is the definitive answer, but I'm glad we're giving him a shot. Who knows, crazier stuff has happened in the NFL. We do know that Rex isn't going to take us where we want to go. So we need to try out what we have. If the future QB is not on this roster, we'll get him in the draft. Wobbly passes and fumbles are my only concern with him, he has great mobility and seems to have the arm strength.

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Alot of hard work in the post. Good job. But sorry Beck is not and will never be a "franchise QB."

If you're that clueless such that you do not realize that ASF's post is quite sarcastic and his numbers analysis makes Beck look WORSE than Grossman, I shudder to think if there are more dumbasses like you.

Yeah, you sick ****. You got me banned. You're a piece of ****.

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Yeah a lot of work put into this thread. It baffles me with my short time here that I start a thread about a kicker who has battled back from being the punching bag for Washington last year, and is now doing well was locked because I didn't ass three words in the title instead of two. Although, this thread of brilliance is accepted? I love my Redskins, but holy funk... Redskin fans are idiots

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Yeah a lot of work put into this thread. It baffles me with my short time here that I start a thread about a kicker who has battled back from being the punching bag for Washington last year, and is now doing well was locked because I didn't ass three words in the title instead of two. Although, this thread of brilliance is accepted? I love my Redskins, but holy funk... Redskin fans are idiots

Wait til you NNTed for life without much reason and no chance of being let out. Good times, good times.

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Wait til you NNTed for life without much reason and no chance of being let out. Good times, good times.

Yeah, I see atl east 3 threads on the first page that are the same in most aspects, but I guess if you have 10,000 posts you're above the rules lol. It's the 2nd best forum in my opinion but when i'm bored, I come here to talk football but holy cow.. This is hilarious how strange some people are here.

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Fine, Beck isnt our franchise QB...but guess what? Hes no worse than your boy Rex who completes as many passes to the other team as he does his own. Attacking one guy as terrible when you defend someone who is PROVEN to be terrible just makes you look moronic.

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So we're comparing Beck's rookie season preseason performance, regular season take over of a 0-9 Dolphins team, and his preseason performance going forward.... to Rex's regular season stats with the Washington Redskins in his 8th and 9th seasons in the league. Interesting.

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Yeah, I see atl east 3 threads on the first page that are the same in most aspects, but I guess if you have 10,000 posts you're above the rules lol. It's the 2nd best forum in my opinion but when i'm bored, I come here to talk football but holy cow.. This is hilarious how strange some people are here.

2nd best? Es is just like any other community and has a good mix of every personality type you can think of.

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So we're comparing Beck's rookie season preseason performance, regular season take over of a 0-9 Dolphins team, and his preseason performance going forward.... to Rex's regular season stats with the Washington Redskins in his 8th and 9th seasons in the league. Interesting.

Seems that's about right.. As nuts as it sounds. Some people just can't get on the Beckwagon.. It's okay, we enjoy the people that are on it!!!!!!

---------- Post added October-22nd-2011 at 02:11 AM ----------

2nd best? Es is just like any other community and has a good mix of every personality type you can think of.

Like I said.. My opinion. Take it or leave it, Doesn't matter to me man

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I am just sitting back and laughing at the different opinions everyone has. Some are pro-rex, some are pro-beck. And then there is me and my wait and see approach.

Really it doesn't matter and the fighting between camps is amazing. REBUILD is in progress and while we all want the skins to win the qb that wins a playoff game for this team is still in school.

---------- Post added October-22nd-2011 at 06:14 AM ----------

Seems that's about right.. As nuts as it sounds. Some people just can't get on the Beckwagon.. It's okay, we enjoy the people that are on it!!!!!!

---------- Post added October-22nd-2011 at 02:11 AM ----------

Don't get so defensive was just curious what you think the 1st is since you didn't post it

Like I said.. My opinion. Take it or leave it, Doesn't matter to me man

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Really it doesn't matter and the fighting between camps is amazing. REBUILD is in progress and while we all want the skins to win the qb that wins a playoff game for this team is still in school.

---------- Post added October-22nd-2011 at 06:14 AM ----------

How is my response defensive? Haha, I'm just saying how I feel in my short term here so far. It could change..

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So we're comparing Beck's rookie season preseason performance, regular season take over of a 0-9 Dolphins team, and his preseason performance going forward.... to Rex's regular season stats with the Washington Redskins in his 8th and 9th seasons in the league. Interesting.

I'm addressing the sample size sophistry used by Beck fans. Beck fans want to make Beck into some sort of mystery man, with no actual NFL track record, while dismissing (as you just did) his rookie starts. So, I decided to expand the sample size to include every pass he's ever thrown in the NFL, including 5 preseasons (2007, 2008, 2009, 2010, 2011).

Including those preseason games adds 184 more passing attempts to his track record. Surprise, surprise, the larger sample size doesn't help him. There isn't a time period in which he excels.

Now you want to exclude his rookie season. OK, let's do that. How about only his games as a Redskin? Including preseason, there are 102 attempts ... and only 1 passing TD. That's 1 passing TD in three NFL starts, going by NFL averages. Taking his Redskin stats and projecting to a full season, we get:

  • 47 sacks
  • 16 fumbles
  • 16 interceptions
  • 5 passing TDs

He has 15 big negative plays (sacks / fumbles / interceptions) for every passing TD, as a Redskin. Oh, and that passing TD was a backward screen pass that Austin ran in for a TD.

Better?

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I'm not sure how anyone could put any faith in these irrelevant stats after the Jedi Mind Tricks threads.

Here's a stat. Turnovers this regular season so far.

Rex-11

Beck-0

If you can ignore Beck's small sample size and lack of playing time, then so can I.

Stormin Mormon will defy ASF's skewed analysis, just like Poor Rex did, and I'll be smiling when he does so the rest of this season.

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