Califan007 The Constipated Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 http://phillysportsdaily.com/eagles/2011/10/13/football-outsiders-stats-show-eagles-have-a-chance/ So, where do the 1-4 Eagles go from here? To the nation’s capital, for a game with the 3-1 Redskins. Washington has played excellent defense thus far, ranking fifth overall in defensive DVOA. The strength of the unit is tilted toward the pass defense, mainly thanks to a fearsome rush keyed by bookends Brian Orakpo and rookie Ryan Kerrigan. While the ‘Skins are tied for third in the NFL in total sacks, they actually are first in our Adjusted Sack Rate, which factors in opponent, down and distance.Washington can be gashed on the ground, ranking 17th in overall run defense efficiency. Once in the open field, runners make hay against the Washington back seven — the team is 20th in our rankings of runs that break through the line. This isn’t unusual with 3-4 defenses, but the ‘Skins aren’t particularly highly ranked in Adjusted Line Yards (which measures the front line’s effectiveness in stopping the run) either. Certainly, LeSean McCoy should be featured heavily, as his speed and elusiveness is precisely the weapon that Washington struggles to defend. McCoy continues to lead the NFL in our running back measurements. When Philly is on defense, they will be facing a far different animal than Ryan Fitzpatrick. Rex Grossman is our 21st-rated quarterback in both DVOA and DYAR, which measures a quarterback’s value over a replacement-level player. If Tarvaris Jackson essentially is a replacement-level quarterback (14 DYAR), Grossman isn’t much better (95 DYAR — Tom Brady by contrast has 878 DYAR). That’s good news for the Eagles, for Philly is 20th in pass defense by our stats, down from 11th in 2010, which probably wasn’t the way Joe Banner and the gang drew it up in August. The secondary has already allowed 15 plays of 20 yards or more. So far, defensive coordinator Juan Castillo seems intent on moving his personnel — notably Nnamdi Asomogha — around as a roving defender, and the result as been chaos. It just may be that in Asomugha’s case, leaving him to play outside press corner and forgetting about him (as is what happened in Oakland) is the only way to deploy him. In other words, the Eagles are being too fancy and outthinking themselves on defense — just what the offense is accused of doing. Tim Hightower has gotten lots of praise for being precisely the sort of one-cut back the Mike Shanahan system supposedly loves, but he doesn’t rank particularly well in our measurements. He’s 26th in the NFL in the same stats that put McCoy tops, although Hightower has played one less game. In a smaller sample size, Roy Helu has been the runner to fear thus far in D.C. With one-third the carries Hightower has received, Helu has a 26-to-5 DYAR advantage and a 18.2 percent-to-10.6 percent DVOA edge. Both are no doubt looking forward to facing Philly’s run defense, which trails only the Rams for futility so far in 2011. Washington is a beatable team for Philly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sideshow24 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I wouldn't say a middle of the pack run defense could be "gashed". Gash is what Fred Jackson did to the Eagles. And of course the Eagles have a chance to win, it is stupid of them to imply that many people think otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champskins Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 The Rams have a "Chance" to beat the Packers, Any Given Sunday.... doesn't mean it will happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrypticVillain Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Who ever said the Eagles don't have a chance to win? It is us who people are looking down on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DC9 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Wow... it's nice to see other fanbases and media groups that are homer-based grasp at straws like that. This is almost like reading one of oldfans mathmatic equation threads. Good grief. I believe that we will win and put them out of their misery. Then they can just focus on who get's the axe. Like that 4-12 season we had, it was embarrassing and horrible, but I didn't expect much after the first 7 or 8 games, I see this in the Eagles future. HAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bang Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 LeSean McCoy ought to scare everyone. So far he hasn't been enough to overcome the mistakes of his team, and their 1-4 start has overshadowed his season so far, but he has been VERY impressive running the football. I'm going to say this, and understand I don't think it's over the top. Some of what I've seen him doing this year,,, making runs out of nothing, cutting back and back again and then back again until finding a seam and gaining 12 yards... he looks like Barry Sanders at times. He turns the corner FAST. Very fast, very explosive, VERY slippery. I'm sure Haslett's noticed. ~Bang Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Rook Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 LeSean McCoy ought to scare everyone.So far he hasn't been enough to overcome the mistakes of his team, and their 1-4 start has overshadowed his season so far, but he has been VERY impressive running the football. I'm going to say this, and understand I don't think it's over the top. Some of what I've seen him doing this year,,, making runs out of nothing, cutting back and back again and then back again until finding a seam and gaining 12 yards... he looks like Barry Sanders at times. He turns the corner FAST. Very fast, very explosive, VERY slippery. I'm sure Haslett's noticed. ~Bang He is also a force on screens and passes in the flat. (Things we have trouble with.) "The force is strong in this one.";) :helmet:The Rook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champskins Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 LeSean McCoy ought to scare everyone.So far he hasn't been enough to overcome the mistakes of his team, and their 1-4 start has overshadowed his season so far, but he has been VERY impressive running the football. I'm going to say this, and understand I don't think it's over the top. Some of what I've seen him doing this year,,, making runs out of nothing, cutting back and back again and then back again until finding a seam and gaining 12 yards... he looks like Barry Sanders at times. He turns the corner FAST. Very fast, very explosive, VERY slippery. I'm sure Haslett's noticed. ~Bang I think Fletcher, Orakpo, Kerrigan, and Landry noticed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gortiz Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 no mention of Torain ... he will probably be a big factor. Unless I'm wrong Philly's front 7 is somewhat smallish right? I know Jenkins is a big boy. I wonder if we are going to employ a spy on vick, if so who? I guess, what beat us last year was the big play, I'd rather have the skins resort to playing a loose D and forcing Vick to be accurate and forcing the Eagles to run. Of course, they have to watch the screens to McCoy and DeSeana. but if we get them to play small ball I think we get them out of their comfort zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Champskins Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Just have to keep pressure with our line and consistent pressure on both edges. Vick is his worst when standing in the pocket and he tends to release it quickly and force mistakes. He holds the ball loosely, and he's a lefty, expect Kerrigan (lead Forced Fumbles in college) to be smacking a few loose. Multiple spies will be used on 3rd downs I would assume, most likely Landry on short yardage plays with Atogwe staying deep. He scrambles left, so lets hope McIntosh is on his A game up the middle. Fletcher protects the second level and dump passes to the TE's. Hall and Wilson need to play up, no more 10 yard gap from the line of scrimmage or they will burn us on the screens and get consistent 1st downs. Safeties over the top for play action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSUSkins24 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Anybody else read the article and feel like they were making up their own stats with all the talk about "our stats?" The article was as biased as it gets. (Not to say the Eagles don't have a legit shot) Oh, and they also chose to leave out a certain RB from the article altogether... but I'm sure they'll get about as much of him as they can handle Sunday. Hail! :eaglesuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Larry Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I guess, what beat us last year was the big play, I'd rather have the skins resort to playing a loose D and forcing Vick to be accurate and forcing the Eagles to run. Of course, they have to watch the screens to McCoy and DeSeana. but if we get them to play small ball I think we get them out of their comfort zone. Yeah, I wouldn't be at all surprised to see our sack-happy defense only rush 4, and drop lots of people into coverage. This might be the first time in a while where we've had the bug uglies to do that. Still, though, I think we all agree that if we give Vick time, he can beat us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooper Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Aaron Schatz -- the football outsiders guy -- comes off so smug whenever he's interviewed. It kills me. He also spins like crazy when his stats fail him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diesel Hog Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Who ever said the Eagles don't have a chance to win? Exactly! This is the NFL, any given Sunday man... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrypticVillain Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 ... he looks like Barry Sanders at times.~Bang He does look good though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 no mention of Torain ... he will probably be a big factor. Unless I'm wrong Philly's front 7 is somewhat smallish right? I know Jenkins is a big boy. I wonder if we are going to employ a spy on vick, if so who? I guess, what beat us last year was the big play, I'd rather have the skins resort to playing a loose D and forcing Vick to be accurate and forcing the Eagles to run. Of course, they have to watch the screens to McCoy and DeSeana. but if we get them to play small ball I think we get them out of their comfort zone. It's not so much that they are small up front it's that they are playing this 9 wide scheme with their DEs split out wide. That helps their pass rush but puts a lot of pressure on their linebackers to fill those gaps and move laterally. Fact is their linebackers are not up to it and they are getting gashed off tackle. Having Trent Cole out injured does not help either. I'm expecting them to make an adjustment and play their ends tighter against us. As to the article of course the Eagles have a shot - this is a game that will test our defense in particular against a big play offense that has no problem moving the ball but which turns the ball over and struggles in the red zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duckus Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Aaron Schatz -- the football outsiders guy -- comes off so smug whenever he's interviewed. It kills me. He also spins like crazy when his stats fail him. Agreed. Bill Barnwell from Grantland used to be with them too. Also a douche, and also spins like crazy to defend their failed stats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hooper Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Agreed. Bill Barnwell from Grantland used to be with them too. Also a douche, and also spins like crazy to defend their failed stats. Oh God. I love to read Barnwell's stuff, but he has been wrong about so much this year. He must be going broke in Vegas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Oldfan Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 It's not so much that they are small up front it's that they are playing this 9 wide scheme with their DEs split out wide. That helps their pass rush but puts a lot of pressure on their linebackers to fill those gaps and move laterally. Fact is their linebackers are not up to it and they are getting gashed off tackle. Having Trent Cole out injured does not help either.I'm expecting them to make an adjustment and play their ends tighter against us. As to the article of course the Eagles have a shot - this is a game that will test our defense in particular against a big play offense that has no problem moving the ball but which turns the ball over and struggles in the red zone. I don't know about them playing their ends tighter -- unless they have already given up on the scheme. On paper, I would expect that Wide Nine to take away our zone stretches. My guess is that the scheme is more vulnerable to a power running team. It ought to be vulnerable to screens also.I'm a proponent of the wider splits, but I had envisioned it with a five-man line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I don't know about them playing their ends tighter -- unless they have already given up on the scheme. On paper, I would expect that Wide Nine to take away our zone stretches. My guess is that the scheme is more vulnerable to a power running team. It ought to be vulnerable to screens also.I'm a proponent of the wider splits, but I had envisioned it with a five-man line. Agreed. Torrain up the gut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A_SKIN_OR_DIE Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I really could care less about them birds. All I remember is Vick going out with cracked ribs and McNugget talking trash. LET GO SKINS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zCommander Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I wonder how the stats on Sunday will hold up with the field being wet because of all the rain we have had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wildbill1952 Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 The Skins have just not put away anyone this year with offense alone. If the Skins let the Iggles stay in it, they risk losing this on the last play of the game. I'm hoping the Skins put them in a big hole early, but that's not the nature of the Redskins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rpredskins Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Until I read this headline I was under the impression that the Eagles had no chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MartinC Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I don't know about them playing their ends tighter -- unless they have already given up on the scheme. On paper, I would expect that Wide Nine to take away our zone stretches. My guess is that the scheme is more vulnerable to a power running team. It ought to be vulnerable to screens also.I'm a proponent of the wider splits, but I had envisioned it with a five-man line. The stretch does not have to go outside. If the End is wide and stays outside the tackles outside shoulder as the play develops the back should have a cease inside the tackle or a lane to cut back. If Torrain starts as I expect he is more likely to make that early cut and square his shoulders to the line earlier than say Hightower who seems to like taking it wider. Hightower has missed a few cut back opportunities as well IMO. I'm confident we will be able to run on the Eagles and I like the matchup of Davis against their linebackers or safeties. If the match Davis up with a DB that gives us a matchup somewhere else to work on. I think we can score on the Eagles - the question to me is how well our defense can pressure Vick and take him to ground when they get the chance rather than allow him to get out the pocket and make a play with his legs or arm. It's a very interesting game on many levels. ---------- Post added October-15th-2011 at 07:32 AM ---------- I wonder how the stats on Sunday will hold up with the field being wet because of all the rain we have had. A slow track suits us IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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