twa Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 gbear, how did the participation rate go? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mardi gras skin Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/employers-hire-117000-in-july-jobless-rate-slips-to-91percent/2011/08/05/gIQATuQDwI_story.html?hpid=z1Do those voting for 10k or less feel any better about the recent jobs report of 117,000 added rather than the predicted 85,000. This came along with a revision upwards for the past 2 months. NPR this morning said 115,000 jobs a month is the break even point. Economists were glad it wasn't 85k but they really think we need about 250k jobs a month to break out of the economic slump. So they thought 175,000 jobs would help keep the market from crashing but it wasn't enough good news to propel market. More like a holding pattern, all other numbers and variables being equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Destino Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 I still think the US economy isn't in a recession as much as it's in a transformation. Corporations were incentivized to ship jobs and profits overseas for too long. Others were deregulated in such a manner that they merged when it didn't benefit the US to allow such a merger. Then we bailed them out when they started to fail and allowed the same crooked idiots to continue running things for personal gain. People assume unemployment is going to come back down to where they are used to seeing it, around 5%, but that simply might not be the case. The economy has been designed to push available cash upwards by shipping jobs elsewhere and depressing salaries. What exactly has the government done, or has either party proposed to do, that will change this? A recession just accelerates the movement of jobs to other countries as companies seek to slash budgets. There is a huge amount of innovation springing up around offshoring that make it easier every day to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gbear Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 TWA, participation went down. Like I said the increase was better than the pessimistic but common predictions. However, it wasn't enough to really move the numbers. What's more while some will look at 9.2 moving to 9.1 and think change, my initial reaction was to wonder about measurement error or whether we could be seeing 9.1500000 move to 9.149999 wit hthe entire move being well within range for the revisions to the number over the coming months to magnify, nulify or even reverse the direction. I hate believing small changes to numbers after the decimal in stats like these. as I said, I think the most positive number in the article was in the last page on the increase in compensation. That moeny is likely to circulate as consumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Elessar78 Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 so my question to the investors on board is, what are you doing with your investments right now? Buy more. Stocks are on sale right now, in essence. Unless you've given up all hope that the American economy is dead and buried then there's no reason to approach this differently than any other down turn. If you think it's done, then buy guns and ammo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeaconTheVillain Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Little Ceasers is up $00.60 per share. Hey did we ever get an update about TJ's frozen creature? Screw this I want to know about the mystery seahorse! ---------- Post added August-5th-2011 at 02:53 PM ---------- I will probably be buying stocks for the first time ever in a month or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SwampEm Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 Little Ceasers is up $00.60 per share. Are they still in business? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellis Posted August 5, 2011 Share Posted August 5, 2011 so my question to the investors on board is, what are you doing with your investments right now? Riding out the storm... Most of what I purchased during the last hiccup is still higher than what I purchased it for, not to mention they've had healthy yields. If the market hits 9K, I may dump a few but ultimately investing is not for the faint of heart. You will have good and bad years. Also... when there's blood in the street, buy land. I can't wait to start buying soon. The market will go down dramatically in the next year. Great time to buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Westbrook36 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/employers-hire-117000-in-july-jobless-rate-slips-to-91percent/2011/08/05/gIQATuQDwI_story.html?hpid=z1Do those voting for 10k or less feel any better about the recent jobs report of 117,000 added rather than the predicted 85,000. This came along with a revision upwards for the past 2 months. When accounting how many people enter the labor force each month (approximately 120k), there is a net loss of jobs in comparison to those trying to find work. Who cares what was predicted? On the question at hand, the market is going to be cut in half in the next 2-3 years. I'd say closer to 2. You never know what rabbit the government will try to pull out of their hat, yet again, to kick the can down the road a little bit. The method of choice since 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
techboy Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 so my question to the investors on board is, what are you doing with your investments right now? I have to keep this brief (for a normal person, not for me ) because I am sitting in Belgium and have better things to do (and eat). However...For investors, stocks are a long-term investment. Like 20 years or more. As such, for the accumulator of stocks, a crash is the best thing ever, and I would hope that those that need the money soon had the foresight to have a healthy percentage already in safer investments for the shorter term. I'm sticking to my plan. Not buying more than usual (except that of course I get more shares for the dollar at the moment), not buying less, and I'll only sell if I need to do so to bring my set allocation back in line. Google "Warren Buffet Hamburger" for a good quote about how accumulators should see this. And now... food. Later suckers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madison Redskin Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 When accounting how many people enter the labor force each month (approximately 120k), there is a net loss of jobs in comparison to those trying to find work. Who cares what was predicted? On the question at hand, the market is going to be cut in half in the next 2-3 years. I'd say closer to 2. You never know what rabbit the government will try to pull out of their hat, yet again, to kick the can down the road a little bit. The method of choice since 2008. Just so we're clear, you're saying that, on or before August 6, 2014, the Dow will be at or below 5,600. Right? I need to go put a link to this thread in my outlook calendar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Seabee1973 Posted August 6, 2011 Share Posted August 6, 2011 so my question to the investors on board is, what are you doing with your investments right now? keep inveesting it is not a loss till you pull it out and just like last time i can make some good profits if and when the markets rebound of those profits are not realized till you cash out. It seems most people get scared and pull money out to quick. if they hold on or buy a fewe more shares you come out nicely in the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimmySmith Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Sell. The president insists on playing the blame game in every facet of the economy. There is absolutely no confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hubbs Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 So much for yesterday's rally, huh? Every sign I see in Europe is negative. The various institutions there might be able to continue cobbling together half-baked "solutions" that buy a short period of relief, but it's hard to conceive of a realistic plan that would truly cure all of the economic imbalances within the EU, short of some sort of deus ex machina unexpected super-invention like easy-and-cheap cold fusion. The problems in the periphery are rapidly spreading to the core, because the European financial system is so damn interconnected that it's not enough for France to merely not have its own massive debt problem. France would have to be independent of the effects of everyone else collapsing. Italy's massive debt problem is France's massive debt problem. France has a significant ability to backstop its banks, but that doesn't actually eliminate losses, it only changes their form. The Germans are very quickly realizing that if the EMU is going to be saved, they'll have to save it all by themselves, and that's an extremely unpopular option within Germany. Of course, leaving the euro comes with its own problems, not the least of which is the fact that a return to the deutsche mark would mean that the DM would relentlessly appreciate, like the Swiss franc is now, continuously damaging German exports. Oh, and refusing to save the EMU will result in German banks taking huge losses (in the midst of a currency transition) for the same reason that it will result in French banks taking huge losses. This isn't even a choice between a rock and a hard place anymore. It's a choice between cyanide and Chinese water torture with a likely dose of cyanide at its ultimate, almost merciful conclusion. There's no painless way out of this one. There isn't even an only moderately painful way out. My guess is that before a euro breakup, the ECB will decide that it has no choice but to go full-on Bernanke and try to pull a miracle out of its ass with massive quantitative easing, which will be met with immediate and extreme protests by certain members of the EU and is pretty much illegal by EU law, but the bank will decide that it's easier to seek forgiveness than permission, because it's already done so repeatedly. And no, I don't think that it will solve anything in the long run, just like I don't think the Fed's quantitative easing has solved anything in the long run. It's actually made things worse in the long run. But that's another topic for another thread. As far as the Dow goes, Europe's driving things so long as the domestic economy still seems to be heading in one direction. The bond market, which I consider to be a bit (though not much) smarter than the stock market, is screaming recession. The 5-year rate is lower than it was in the depths of 2008-2009. The 10-year rate broke below those levels already and has been bouncing around since. The 2-year is damn near the equivalent of overnight lending given the Fed's new stated policy. Nothing should be standing in the way of more stock selloffs, except for the impending impact of QE3. Yes, it's going to happen. Period. It might take a slightly different form this time—perhaps abandoning large-scale purchases of short- and medium-term federal government debt in favor of long-term federal government debt and maybe even municipal debt or a return to buying real estate assets from zombie banks as they collapse again—but it's going to happen. My guess is that we'll get an announcement either when conditions have deteriorated to the point at which the three dissenters from the recent Fed decision are whittled down to one, or when the price of oil has fallen further to the point that the Fed wouldn't fear the resulting surge in the wake of QE3, because it won't be expected to go beyond the QE2 surge. I think that price would be around $70/barrel. In other words, as has been true for the past two and a half years, nothing matters as much as the whims of Ben Bernanke. I think I can already hear the faint sound of helicopters.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 There's no painless way out of this one. The political drama? The emotional selling in the market? The possibility of a recession? No easy way out of what? Stock prices are at ridiculous lows as compared to company profits and earnings. This market crash is an emotional one. For me it's more buy buy buy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hubbs Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 The political drama?The emotional selling in the market? The possibility of a recession? No easy way out of what? Stock prices are at ridiculous lows as compared to company profits and earnings. This market crash is an emotional one. For me it's more buy buy buy. Out of what? God, so many ways to answer that question.... Out of the fact that Europe has locked itself into a monetary prison from which every avenue for so-called "escape" comes with extreme economic damage. Out of the fact that if the EMU collapses, there will be an extremely ironic rush into the dollar. Despite the firm insistence of Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke that we're pursuing a "strong dollar policy," that's just about the last thing that either of them want. Out of the fact that America's GDP has only been "sustained" over the past three years by the federal government running a deficit of 12-13% of said GDP, and that which can't go on forever, won't. Out of the fact that the stock market, despite its recent collapse, is still pricing in a much better future than the bond market, and only one of them can be right. You obviously side with the stock market. I side with the bond market. But, like I said before, that will change with QE3. Or, to be more precise, it will probably change with the widespread rumors of QE3. Buy the rumor and all that. Out of the fact that America's economic growth over the past 30 years has depended almost entirely upon the rapid acceleration of the growth of debt, and now that the private sector has seemingly run out of its ability to constantly over-lever itself, the "old normal" isn't coming back so long as the debt remains. Company profits and earnings... ha. You know what drives corporate profits? Customers. Enjoy your bounce to 11,400 or so. I'm sure it will happen sometime soon, and you'll be feeling very good about yourself. But just wait until QE3. Then the nominal value of the Dow will probably surge past 13,000, and you'll be telling yourself that you just made all sorts of money. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chipwhich Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Out of what? God, so many ways to answer that question....Out of the fact that Europe has locked itself into a monetary prison from which every avenue for so-called "escape" comes with extreme economic damage. Out of the fact that if the EMU collapses, there will be an extremely ironic rush into the dollar. Despite the firm insistence of Timothy Geithner and Ben Bernanke that we're pursuing a "strong dollar policy," that's just about the last thing that either of them want. Out of the fact that America's GDP has only been "sustained" over the past three years by the federal government running a deficit of 12-13% of said GDP, and that which can't go on forever, won't. Out of the fact that the stock market, despite its recent collapse, is still pricing in a much better future than the bond market, and only one of them can be right. You obviously side with the stock market. I side with the bond market. But, like I said before, that will change with QE3. Or, to be more precise, it will probably change with the widespread rumors of QE3. Buy the rumor and all that. Out of the fact that America's economic growth over the past 30 years has depended almost entirely upon the rapid acceleration of the growth of debt, and now that the private sector has seemingly run out of its ability to constantly over-lever itself, the "old normal" isn't coming back so long as the debt remains. Company profits and earnings... ha. You know what drives corporate profits? Customers. Enjoy your bounce to 11,400 or so. I'm sure it will happen sometime soon, and you'll be feeling very good about yourself. But just wait until QE3. Then the nominal value of the Dow will probably surge past 13,000, and you'll be telling yourself that you just made all sorts of money. I can't even comprehend what your arguments are other than worldwide economic collapse. Or that you thing QE3 profits will signify US economic collapse. Meanwhile, US companies are sitting on record profits and prepared for the European collapse. I don't think anyone is saying...wow...look what is coming. But call me after QE3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PeterMP Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 I can't even comprehend what your arguments are other than worldwide economic collapse.Or that you thing QE3 profits will signify US economic collapse. Meanwhile, US companies are sitting on record profits and prepared for the European collapse. I don't think anyone is saying...wow...look what is coming. But call me after QE3. I just want to point out that given long term historical norms, the P/E ratios of American companies don't look great. They are essentially at historical norms or even slightly above them, depending how you calculate the P/E ratio. In addition, dividends are at AWFUL values compared long term historical norms. http://www.multpl.com/ http://www.multpl.com/s-p-500-dividend-yield/ Though, that doesn't mean the stock market is an awful buy compared to other investments. http://seekingalpha.com/article/273450-the-s-p-500-s-p-e-ratio-is-a-red-herring (Though, I'd point out here, he only compared to bonds. People have a lot of other investment options.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ixcuincle Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AsburySkinsFan Posted August 11, 2011 Share Posted August 11, 2011 In before McD5 claims he predicted it. Oh please you're a year and a half late...or was he a year and a half early? :whoknows: ---------- Post added August-11th-2011 at 11:54 AM ---------- In other words, the stock market is not the economy. BINGO!!!! People look to the Dow as if it is reflective of the economy as a whole, but it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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