A Closer Look at 2011 QB Prospects:Cam Newton

[ChillSkinzFan84]

I actually didn't know about weed, I've heard about cocaine on multiple occasions.

Oh ok maybe i heard them say drug and assumed they were talking about the good ole mary jane.

But damn coke? Now that's a serious red flag

[Floodzone004]

Oh ok maybe i heard them say drug and assumed they were talking about the good ole mary jane.

But damn coke? Now that's a serious red flag

Yeah man, just google "Ryan Mallett Drugs", so many things pop up it's scary.

[Bubble Screen]

That sounds like your purposefully trying to use improper English, if you weren't it's still funny because it's YOU'RE not YOU. It's just a jab don't take it to seriously, honestly who cares about grammar on a message board anyways.

:doh:

[Going Commando]

Like I said I'm happy to bring some laughter into your pathetic life, and nice job of deflecting the point of my post which you seemed to understand because you didn't say i was wrong.

Your right and I respect that. I'm always going to put someone in their place if they jump out there though.

He bought a stolen laptop...in the hood thats called a hookup or getting it for the low. Its not like he has gun or drug charges

Exactly if its a spade then call it a spade. And I don't care who doesn't like it im going to continue yo call those with the undertones out.

I def feel what your saying, but thats just not how I was raised. My grandmother was a famous civil rights activist in the 60s and 70s...its in my blood to try and make this world a better place lol. No matter what the setting is if I see somethings thats not right I'm going to say something.

I can't stop laughing at this guy.

ChillSkinzFan84: "I see myself not not only as an Extremeskins poster, but a entertainer and icon."

[Conn]

ChillSkinzFan84: "I see myself not not only as an Extremeskins poster, but a entertainer and icon."

Awesome on SO many levels. And he won't get half of them.

[MartinC]

Well this thread went to hell in a handcart quite quickly, QBs always seem to polarise so that's not that much of a surprise I guess. I think it just underlines how much of a boom or bust type pick Newton would be - and not just on the field.

Let's also get the racist issue out in the open, the whole black QB thing. No question racism both overt and sometimes much more subtle still exists and it's entirely possible some fans/posters have decided they don't like Newton because he is black. That's almost certainly the case. However that does not mean that all criticism of Newton or any other black QB for that matter is racist.

In the OP of this thread I took the trouble to break down a full game of Newton and provide some analysis of his play. I think I was pretty complimentary. In this very thread I have defended Newton against baseless charges that he is an inaccurate passer or has poor mechanics. However there are legitimate concerns about his inexperience, the low number of pass attempts he made and the flags around him for the off field stuff.

I think most Newton supporters would agree these issues are real but clearly how you view them is subjective and it's here perhaps that the prism of either race or perhaps more general background and life experience comes in. At the end of the day a part of the draft process is a subjective judgment weighing all the scouting evidence and also projecting how the player will fit in your scheme, locker room and wider franchise. Especially at QB.

I have also said that I have much bigger concerns about Mallett for the off field stuff (we are just working on a Mallett thread by the way which should be up soon) and his concerns are not around smoking a bit of weed by the way.

Let's try to keep this thread to specifics about his on field play where possible while acknowledging there are some legitimate off field issues and also respect that it's fine for us to have different opinions.

[wrecker]

Well this thread went to hell in a handcart quite quickly, QBs always seem to polarise so that's not that much of a surprise I guess. I think it just underlines how much of a boom or bust type pick Newton would be - and not just on the field.

Let's also get the racist issue out in the open, the whole black QB thing. No question racism both overt and sometimes much more subtle still exists and it's entirely possible some fans/posters have decided they don't like Newton because he is black. That's almost certainly the case. However that does not mean that all criticism of Newton or any other black QB for that matter is racist.

In the OP of this thread I took the trouble to break down a full game of Newton and provide some analysis of his play. I think I was pretty complimentary. In this very thread I have defended Newton against baseless charges that he is an inaccurate passer or has poor mechanics. However there are legitimate concerns about his inexperience, the low number of pass attempts he made and the flags around him for the off field stuff.

I think most Newton supporters would agree these issues are real but clearly how you view them is subjective and it's here perhaps that the prism of either race or perhaps more general background and life experience comes in. At the end of the day a part of the draft process is a subjective judgment weighing all the scouting evidence and also projecting how the player will fit in your scheme, locker room and wider franchise. Especially at QB.

I have also said that I have much bigger concerns about Mallett for the off field stuff (we are just working on a Mallett thread by the way which should be up soon) and his concerns are not around smoking a bit of weed by the way.

Let's try to keep this thread to specifics about his on field play where possible while acknowledging there are some legitimate off field issues and also respect that it's fine for us to have different opinions.

Just my opinion....I don't think is a racial issue at all but rather a statistical one. Although there have been and currently are good black QB's, only 1 has won a superbowl. Until more win some superbowls then they will be scrutinized more.

As much love that is given to other black players in other positions I don't see how it can be considered racial.

[number twenty-eight]

I understand the sentiment. For a team so devoid of talent, we can't afford a bust in the top 10. But moreso, this decade has conditioned us to expect the worst. When things can go one of two ways, we always seem to get the short end. Our trades suck. Our free agents are disasters. Our coaches are not long for our team. We were 4-16 versus the coinflip this past year. 4-16! There's about a 0.13% chance of that happening, the same probability as 16-4.

But if you allow yourselves to look at this player with less jaded eyes, see the extraordinarily high level of pro skills he demonstrates on the first page of this thread and not fixate on how he behaved as a 19yo, I think you might see a potentially transcendent talent who makes up for a variety of shortcomings.

• He makes the offensive line better by individually defeating the rush and forcing disciplined containment.
  
• He makes the receivers better by extending plays, forcing a spy, delivering the ball to all those curiously wide open receivers.
  
• He makes the running game better by becoming our best short yardage back the instant he signs a contract.
  
• He makes the team better by imparting the confidence of a true winner, unaffected by game momentum or score deficits.
  
• He makes the franchise better by the presence of a legitimate star and centerpiece.
  

He could just as easily suck, for all the reasons that have been talked about before in this thread. Guess what? He hasn't sucked yet. Betting on Newton to fail is starting to look like a losing proposition.

[Hitman21ST]

He could just as easily suck, for all the reasons that have been talked about before in this thread. Guess what? He hasn't sucked yet. Betting on Newton to fail is starting to look like a losing proposition.

FWIW, so did betting on Matt Leinart to fail, VY to fail, etc...

[Going Commando]

He could just as easily suck, for all the reasons that have been talked about before in this thread. Guess what? He hasn't sucked yet. Betting on Newton to fail is starting to look like a losing proposition.

Good post, but I wanted to point out that past failure and bad luck doesn't have any bearing on the proposition Newton's success or failure, for better or worse (we're not "due", as much as I'd like to think that's the case).

You raise some good points, but I wanted to highlight this portion because I see it as the opposite. Betting against Newton is an exceedingly safe proposition because a quarterback with his skillset and college background and resume has never succeeded for the franchise that drafted him. A quarterback with his type of skillset has never won a Superbowl. And as far as I can tell, a QB with a similar resume to Newton's has never even been to the Superbowl before. There is obviously a reason for that, there are not many QBs like Newton... which is again telling in both good and bad ways.

I loved Vince Young as a prospect and got swirled up in the hype of one of the greatest college football seasons and palyers ever. He was a cleaner prospect than Newton and ended up an abject failure. After that happened I decided that I'd bet against the QB like him until one actually proved me wrong for a change.

[GibbsFactor]

More ammo for the Newton haters:

by WesBunting

Interesting seeing Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick sitting in the back of the plane & Auburn QB. Cam Newton in 1st class en route 2 the #Combine.

[number twenty-eight]

Good post, but I wanted to point out that past failure and bad luck doesn't have any bearing on the proposition Newton's success or failure, for better or worse (we're not "due", as much as I'd like to think that's the case).

You raise some good points, but I wanted to highlight this portion because I see it as the opposite. Betting against Newton is an exceedingly safe proposition because a quarterback with his skillset and college background and resume has never succeeded for the franchise that drafted him. A quarterback with his type of skillset has never won a Superbowl. And as far as I can tell, a QB with a similar resume to Newton's has never even been to the Superbowl before. There is obviously a reason for that, there are not many QBs like Newton... which is again telling in both good and bad ways.

I loved Vince Young as a prospect and got swirled up in the hype of one of the greatest college football seasons and palyers ever. He was a cleaner prospect than Newton and ended up an abject failure. After that happened I decided that I'd bet against the QB like him until one actually proved me wrong for a change.

Yes this is true, but those were different players and Newton's 3/3 for championships. In statistics, you only need two data points to create a trend. Evaluated against his own merits, he looks a lot more attractive, doesn't he?

[RonArtest15]

More ammo for the Newton haters:

by WesBunting

Interesting seeing Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick sitting in the back of the plane & Auburn QB. Cam Newton in 1st class en route 2 the #Combine.

Why would this fuel the fire? For all we know Newton's agent could have hooked him up w. the 1st class seats, or he came out of pocket with his UA money. Non-issue.

[The Tris]

evansilva

Interesting seeing Nevada QB Colin Kaepernick sitting in the back of the plane & Auburn QB Cam Newton in 1st class en route 2 the #Combine.

I'm sure he is not the only player traveling first class, but it is the continuation of an image that says I have made it already.

---------- Post added February-24th-2011 at 10:10 AM ----------

Why would this fuel the fire? For all we know Newton's agent could have hooked him up w. the 1st class seats, or he came out of pocket with his UA money. Non-issue.

The UA deal is yet another minor issue, that taken stand alone means almost nothing. But added in with all the other little issues? Certainly is not helping him.

Remember Tebow famously turning down endorsements until he was drafted? http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/05/13/tim-tebow-says-he-has-tur_n_575761.html

[darrelgreenie]

He could just as easily suck, for all the reasons that have been talked about before in this thread. Guess what? He hasn't sucked yet. Betting on Newton to fail is starting to look like a losing proposition.

I understand your point here and I think that Newton could be a successful NFL QB.

Although recent success of Ryan, Sanchez and Flacco have skewed the perception of QB hit rate the actuality remains the same for the QB position as it does for any position:

When it comes to the NFL predicting failure for any position is always the safe bet.

[number twenty-eight]

I understand your point here and I think that Newton could be a successful NFL QB.

Although recent success of Ryan, Sanchez and Flacco have skewed the perception of QB hit rate the actuality remains the same for the QB position as it does for any position:

When it comes to the NFL predicting failure for any position is always the safe bet.

The spirit of that comment is that he holds three championships in three years, which is a peculiarly high rate of success. Him not starting for Florida is as persuasive to me as the fact that Vince Young hasn't won a Superbowl yet.

[The Tris]

When it comes to the NFL predicting failure for any position is always the safe bet.

Considering we have not had an outright 1st round QB bust in three years, the law of averages is not in any of this year's top prospects' favor.

[MartinC]

Considering we have not had an outright 1st round QB bust in three years, the law of averages is not in any of this year's top prospects' favor.

The dice have no memory.

[Going Commando]

Yes this is true, but those were different players and Newton's 3/3 for championships. In statistics, you only need two data points to create a trend. Evaluated against his own merits, he looks a lot more attractive, doesn't he?

Sure, but no scout in the world looks at a prospect in a true vacuum. Otherwise we wouldn't have any baseline of experience to know what works and what doesn't. We also wouldn't have unwritten laws and rules like the 60% completions mark or 750 career attempts mark to use as guidelines.

The past is a tool and resource to be used in player evaluation.

My biggest problem with drafting Newton is this:

- He's a disproportionately high risk as far as QB prospects go. This is pretty much rock solid.

- There are a lot of other good QB prospects in this and next year's class

So why take on the headache of drafting Newton? Physical upside? That's probably less relevant to a QB's career achievement than any other position on the field save the kicking specialists.

[GibbsFactor]

Why would this fuel the fire? For all we know Newton's agent could have hooked him up w. the 1st class seats, or he came out of pocket with his UA money. Non-issue.

It doesn't bother me, I like the kid and wouldn't be upset going for broke with him, with so many needs... But it bothers some. To each their own.

ETA: But as I've said for over a month, the kids going #1.

We can hope a Gabbert falls, or another one of the blue chippers or we could trade back to 2012. I'd take a 1st, 2nd and 4th for #10 and a 1st for #41 all day, especially given the eventual shortened season this year.

ETA2: Ron Riveria is in full Cam Newton spin control. Looks like they are seriously considering taking the QB #1.

[Mahons21]

Considering we have not had an outright 1st round QB bust in three years, the law of averages is not in any of this year's top prospects' favor.

I've been thinking a lot about this lately, and I know we touched on it yesterday TRIS.

Do you guys think the evolution of the NFL to a much more pass happy league, has made it easier for QB's to succeed?

[number twenty-eight]

Sure, but no scout in the world looks at a prospect in a true vacuum. Otherwise we wouldn't have any baseline of experience to know what works and what doesn't. We also wouldn't have unwritten laws and rules like the 60% completions mark or 750 career attempts mark to use as guidelines.

The past is a tool and resource to be used in player evaluation.

My biggest problem with drafting Newton is this:

- He's a disproportionately high risk as far as QB prospects go. This is pretty much rock solid.

- There are a lot of other good QB prospects in this and next year's class

So why take on the headache of drafting Newton? Physical upside? That's probably less relevant to a QB's career achievement than any other position on the field save the kicking specialists.

Generally success trials are 1:1. On our 20th coinflip, it didn't matter what the results of the 19 were that came before it. And Newton is something of a streakbuster as far as that goes. There's certainly risk, but I believe its educated risk. And its for the player that I think can improve us more than any other, which is why I would tolerate the chance of failure.

[GibbsFactor]

Joseph Person of the Charlotte Observer reports Carolina Panther's coach Ron Rivera spoke glowingly of former Auburn quarterback Cam Newton, whom the Panthers plan to bring to Charlotte for a private visit. Other quarterback prospects also will be flown in, although Rivera did not specify which ones.

Rivera compared the 6-6, 250-pound Newton to several first-round quarterbacks who have had success.

“You look at the size of these guys. They're all big men. You look at Ben Roethlisberger, a Matt Ryan, a Joe Flacco. Cam's got those types of physical attributes,” Rivera said.

“He's a tall, powerful young man. He's got great athletic ability. He might be the better athlete of all of them (current QB prospects). But again, the one thing he does have is he's got a great arm. And he's a winner. You go back to his junior college and his college days, you can't pass that up, either. We've got to explore. There's eight, 9, 10 guys that we're looking at. We're going to explore all avenues with everybody.”

[The Tris]

I've been thinking a lot about this lately, and I know we touched on it yesterday TRIS.

Do you guys think the evolution of the NFL to a much more pass happy league, has made it easier for QB's to succeed?

I think the increased complixity of not only college offenses, but also high school as well, has produced more better prepared prospects who simply throw the ball more, and are better through rote development.

I remember my senior year of HS, at a small Richmond school, it was like 80% full house backfield, and I bet our QB attempted 50 passes all season. Seven years later, its close to 150 for the season. Our rival school has a spread offense installed, and are throwing 20-25 times a game. That one small ancedotal example, but it speaks for the national trend.

That being said, I would be surprised if this preparation has enabled all top QBs prospects to hit a 100% success rate, as first rounds are about 65% on average. Obviously it is the gambler's fallacy to expect Newton or Gabbert or other to fail because we expect a return to average. But still, it is in the back of my mind.

No matter how prepared a prospect is, to many factors go into determining success in the NFL. Matt Leinart seemed like the most pro ready prospect of all time, and certainly the beneficiary of the increased complexity of all levels of football. If he busted, its hard to say that college has perfected preparing a QB for the NFL.

[GibbsFactor]

I think the increased complixity of not only college offenses, but also high school as well, has produced more better prepared prospects who simply throw the ball more, and are better through rote development.

I remember my senior year of HS, at a small Richmond school, it was like 80% full house backfield, and I bet our QB attempted 50 passes all season. Seven years later, its close to 150 for the season. Our rival school has a spread offense installed, and are throwing 20-25 times a game. That one small ancedotal example, but it speaks for the national trend.

That being said, I would be surprised if this preparation has enabled all top QBs prospects to hit a 100% success rate, as first rounds are about 65% on average. Obviously it is the gambler's fallacy to expect Newton or Gabbert or other to fail because we expect a return to average. But still, it is in the back of my mind.

No matter how prepared a prospect is, to many factors go into determining success in the NFL. Matt Leinart seemed like the most pro ready prospect of all time, and certainly the beneficiary of the increased complexity of all levels of football. If he busted, its hard to say that college has perfected preparing a QB for the NFL.

They are running Spread in peewee.