Audible_Red40 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Mods, please feel free to merge, I thought we could debate history of QB's and drafting. In the last decade, there has been 1 QB who "fell" to the second round because of the concerns about his size and arm strength. 2000 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2001 - D.Brees, round 2 - 1st pick, 32nd overall (would be a first rounder at #32 today) 2002 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2003 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2004 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2005 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2006 - 0 QB's taken in the 2nd round 2007 - Take your pick of K.Kolb, our very own J.Beck or D.Stanton. 2008 - 2010 - B.Brohm, C.Henne, P.White, J.Clausen. I say thanks but no thanks. J.Beck signed an extension through 2012/13, could he be our guy? Doubt it. Good QB's don't fall to the second round while being on 3 teams in 3 years. Kolb would be the best of the bunch and what has he ever done. How the Eagles could possibly get 2 - 1st round picks for him is insane. Use those first round pick on a first round QB. As for the mid to late 90's. How would you like C.Batch, J.Plummer, T.Banks or K.Stewart? Batch & Banks = no thanks. The other 2, sure they had some success, but they were also system QB's with great talent around them. Now onto our current front office. Bruce Allen was the Bucs GM from 2004-2008. He had coach Gruden who was enamored with QB's and had QB's B.Griese, B.Johnson & C.Simms on the roster. What did he do as a GM and with a coach who would sleep with his QB just to show he cared? 2004 - 8 picks, 0 QB's taken 2005 - 12 picks, 0 QB's taken 2006 - 10 picks, B.Gradkowski taken in the 6th round. 2007 - 10 picks, 0 QB's taken, signed J.Garcia UFA 2008 - 7 picks, J.Johnson taken in 5th round. 5 years - 47 picks and 2 subpar QB's. Shanny. Everyone knows his deal. Can't win without Elway, and looks as though he failed on the Mac5 experiment. In a nushell from 1995 - 2008 he had 111 draft picks and took 5 qb's. 1996 - 12 picks and took some guy named Jeff Lewis QB in the 4th round. 1998 - 7 picks, B.Griese 3rd round. Who had one pro bowl year in 2000. Playing only 10 games, 643 completion pect, 2700 yards, 19 TD's, 4 INT's, 102.9 rating. Surrounded by great players. 2000 - 10 picks, J.Jackson 7th round 2004 - 10 picks, M.Mauck 7th round 2006 - 7 picks, J.Cutler in 1st round. There you have it. If you don't inherit a QB, strike it big during FA, win a trade for QB, outside of Cutler, who would you want leading your team after being drafted? Of the top 20 passers this past season, most are 1st round picks. There will never be another Brady. Brees is who he is. Schaub a 3rd rounder was part of the building process and they had to have patience with him. Who else do you want? Orton, well he'll be available, we all thought Campbell was better then him, until he lit up the yards in the pass happy system McDaniels brought to Denver. So dare I say. If the FO believes there is a QB who is worthy of a 1st round selection, they must take him. Having a QB in the 2nd round fall to us, won't happen because he can't be that good. And for god's sake, please do not TRADE back up into the first round. This could set us back even further and have another Campbell or Ramsey. They have to hit a homerun with the #10 pick. QB or not. Who wants to wait until the second round for a QB? HAIL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGI Jef Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i appreciate the effort put into this. i would say that many 2nd round QBs are examples of reaches. too many teams will plan on going BPA in 1st round and then picking up "BQBA" in the 2nd. franchise QBs come either as elite first round prospects or as diamond in the rough "we got lucky as ****" late round picks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
S.T.real,lights,out Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I agree. Unless we are planning on sitting around and waiting to someone to develop u need to take them 1st round. With that being said tho if a QB that is worth a 1st round pick is there and Shanny doens't like him i would be fine with going into next season with Rex and seeing what happens. As long as we have our picks we could be in the hunt for Luck next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brandon Lloyd Christmas Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 franchise QBs come either as elite first round prospects or as diamond in the rough "we got lucky as ****" late round picks. pretty true. theres the occasional matt schaub in the 3rd, or the hasselbeck in the 6th, or the brady in the 6th, but most good/great QBs are first rounders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chump Bailey Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Who wants to wait until the second round for a QB? I'm of the opinion that if Pat Devlin were available at the top of the 2nd, I would not mind taking a chance on him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ross3909 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Success rates on QBs coming out of college is hit or miss whether they are high picks or not. All you can do is look at a lot of game tape, make projections and assessments then make your move if one of your choices falls to you at the value per pick spot you want. Many of the picks that have worked out like Roethlisberger (R1-11), Aaron Rogers (R1-24), Brees (R2-32), Schaub (R3-90), Tony Romo sits to pee (Undrafted), Brady (R6-199) defy the draft day wisdom of the contemporary analysts. Not that I believe it will happen, but we should build the castle, then add the king, not the other way around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I'm of the opinion that if Pat Devlin were available at the top of the 2nd, I would not mind taking a chance on him. This guy IMO falls into what TGI Jef said. A second round "reach". Especially where we pick in the second round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madison Redskin Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Who wants to wait until the second round for a QB? There are a number of quarterbacks who have done quite nicely and who fell out of the first round. Some recent ones include: Brett Farve (2nd Round) Drew Brees (2nd Round) Matt Schaub (3rd Round) Kyle Orton (4th Round) Tom Brady (6th Round) Matt Cassel (7th Round) Trent Green (8th Round) Jeff Garcia (Undrafted) Tony Romo sits to pee (Undrafted) Kurt Warner (Undrafted) Jake Delhomme (Undrafted) In addition, a lot of the best quarterbacks of all time were not drafted in the 1st round, including: Boomer Esiason (2nd Round) Dan Fouts (2nd Round) Joe Montana (3rd Round) Johnny Unitas (9th Round) Roger Staubach (10th Round) Bart Starr (17th Round) Warren Moon (Undrafted) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheLongshot Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I think there are many cases where guys who normally would be picked at the top of the 2nd round have teams trade up and pick them at the end of the 1st round. QBs like Campbell, Losman, Quinn, Tebow (amonst others) are all guys who likely would have dropped to the 2nd round if someone didn't trade up to draft them. The reason is that there usually is a lot of competition at the top of the 2nd round for QBs from those who passed in the 1st round. Beyond that is where you see a bigger dropoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cphil006 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 pretty true. theres the occasional matt schaub in the 3rd, or the hasselbeck in the 6th, or the brady in the 6th, but most good/great QBs are first rounders. How many "first round" QBs become busts? I guess it's a risk you take? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 There are a number of quarterbacks who have done quite nicely and who fell out of the first round. Some recent ones include:Brett Farve (2nd Round) Drew Brees (2nd Round) Matt Schaub (3rd Round) Kyle Orton (4th Round) Tom Brady (6th Round) Jeff Garcia (Undrafted) Tony Romo sits to pee (Undrafted) Kurt Warner (Undrafted) Jake Delhomme (Undrafted) In addition, a lot of the best quarterbacks of all time were not drafted in the 1st round, including: Boomer Esiason (2nd Round) Dan Fouts (2nd Round) Joe Montana (3rd Round) Johnny Unitas (9th Round) Roger Staubach (10th Round) Bart Starr (17th Round) Warren Moon (Undrafted) Yes, my point was to keep it within the last 10-15 years. It has a lot to do with Business decisions now as well. As well I just wanted to say judging by our FO and their history, chances are there wont be a QB taken in the 2nd, as well the success rate of QB's is much higher as 1st round selections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justice98 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Of the top 20 passers this past season, most are 1st round picks. There will never be another Brady. Brees is who he is. Schaub a 3rd rounder was part of the building process and they had to have patience with him. Who else do you want? Orton, well he'll be available, we all thought Campbell was better then him, until he lit up the yards in the pass happy system McDaniels brought to Denver. Two years ago, most of the QBs in the top 20 were NOT first round picks. But you wouldn't have argued this point then, I'm sure. So because the numbers shifted a couple due to injuries (Romo sits to pee, Pennington, for example) and retirement (Warner, Garcia), you think that's definitive proof you must get your QB in the first round. If you do your due diligence as a scouting and coaching staff, you can get your guy anywhere. There will be another Brady, just as there'll be another Manning, another Elway, or another "insert non-first round player that becomes an all time great". Or at least guys in the discussion. Might not be in the next year, but it'll happen. We say that in sports a lot, and then somebody comes along and we think there'll never be another that guy. Too much hyperbole. As far as the FO goes, a lot of decisions are based on the specific draft classes at hand. Depends on who's out there, and then who's out there relative to other positions and who's on your team and that kind of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mursilis Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Yes, my point was to keep it within the last 10-15 years. It has a lot to do with Business decisions now as well. As well I just wanted to say judging by our FO and their history, chances are there wont be a QB taken in the 2nd, as well the success rate of QB's is much higher as 1st round selections. A lot of those QBs cited by Madison Redskin are from the past 10-15 years. You said there will never be another Brady, but the same team (the Pats) already found another - Matt Cassel (7th round, pick 230). This season he had a higher passer rating (98) than any recent Redskins QB. I'd take him here in a heartbeat. There's still plenty of QB talent in the later rounds, if you've got good scouting, are willing to take a risk, and have patience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGI Jef Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 i think the main point is clear. successful quarterbacks either a) are already elite players, or have potential either mentally or physically. the guys who are least likely to be successful are often the mid level starters who have already peaked. too many teams will take a big conference starter and cross their fingers taht he reaches the next level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gregpeck99 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 When it comes to drafting elite QBs its just like pornography ... you can't define it ... but you know it when you see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CrabR Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Dave Krieg undrafted Trent Green 8th rd Dan Fouts 2nd rd Johnny Unitas 9th round Joe Theismann 4th rd Randall Cunningham 2nd rd Jim Zorn undrafted a few more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jflow78 Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 I absolutely agree with your initial premise (and then disagree with a ton of minor points, but that's a different thread). Drafting QBs is definitely hit or miss, but your likelihood of hitting is a lot higher in the 1st round than in any other round. Everyone will bring up the exception to the rule, but there's no way to dispute that you have a much greater chance of success in finding your future QB in the 1st round. I was a big advocate for picking up Colt McCoy in the 2nd round, and he did pretty well as a rookie on an awful team, but he was another exception and not the rule. If we are going QB this season, we should get him at #10 or higher. If our FO really believes in someone in particular, then they should do what it takes to get that QB. If they like 2-3 people, then we might be able to stay at #10 and get one of them, but either way, we don't want to be stuck with leftovers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Audible_Red40 Posted January 13, 2011 Author Share Posted January 13, 2011 I absolutely agree with your initial premise (and then disagree with a ton of minor points, but that's a different thread). Drafting QBs is definitely hit or miss, but your likelihood of hitting is a lot higher in the 1st round than in any other round. Everyone will bring up the exception to the rule, but there's no way to dispute that you have a much greater chance of success in finding your future QB in the 1st round. I was a big advocate for picking up Colt McCoy in the 2nd round, and he did pretty well as a rookie on an awful team, but he was another exception and not the rule. If we are going QB this season, we should get him at #10 or higher. If our FO really believes in someone in particular, then they should do what it takes to get that QB. If they like 2-3 people, then we might be able to stay at #10 and get one of them, but either way, we don't want to be stuck with leftovers. Word, well said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ABSTRACT Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 With patient scouting, you can pick up a great QB anywhere in the draft. ********* Mel Kiper....he's an idiot. If guys like Greg Mcelroy, Ricky Stanzi, and Pat Devlin are picked up in the correct system, I think they can all have success. I personally like Pat Devlin and I think that he can become our franchise QB with proper coaching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TGI Jef Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 This thread got me thinking about the differences between late first rounders and early second rounders. The fanfare of being a first round pick might bring added expectations, but the difference in player quality is virtually nill. I did some wikipedia-ing, and found that the premise of this thread can be taken even a step further. Good QB's generally don't even fall to the bottom half of the first round. I went and looked at the past 20 first rounds (1990-2010), and here were the players drafted in the 2nd half of their respective first rounds: 16 - Dan McGwire 17 - Josh Freeman 18 - Joe Flacco 18 - Chad Pennington 19 - Kyle Boller 22 - Brady Quinn 22 - Rex Grossman 24 - Aaron Rodgers 24 - Todd Marinovich 25 - Jason Campbell 25 - Tim Tebow 25 - Tommy Maddox 32 - Patrick Ramsey That is it. I would argue that Rodgers, Flacco, and Freeman are either already elite or show elite potential. Pennington wasn't an awful pick, and I'm not even going to bring JC into this for fear of the thread being "JCd." Also, the jury is obviously still out on Tim Tebow. The point, though, is that elite QBs don't just get picked in the first round. They get picked in the BEGINNING of the first round. The 10th pick is one where we could seemingly get a nice prospect (Cutler was 11th, I believe), but it is also getting close to the borderline where you really run the risk of reaching and not ending up with a first round caliber player (probably a result of "we are getting a quarterback in the first round this year no matter what" mindset). The fact that the Redskins last two "big time first round" QBs are on this list probably has a lot to do with why the team has been so horrible over the past decade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Long n Left Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 as well the success rate of QB's is much higher as 1st round selections. Any documentation to back this assertion up? I'd guess there are plenty of first round busts also. And that, is my problem with the OP. QBs, out of all positions, are probably "reached" for more than any other. Therefore you'll have plenty of hits AND misses at that position in the first round. You'll also have many more numerically, giving that position a semblance of gotta get in the first. The more guys chosen, the more chance for a premise to be true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
addicted Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 There are a number of quarterbacks who have done quite nicely and who fell out of the first round. Some recent ones include:Brett Farve (2nd Round) Drew Brees (2nd Round) Matt Schaub (3rd Round) Kyle Orton (4th Round) Tom Brady (6th Round) Matt Cassel (7th Round) Trent Green (8th Round) Jeff Garcia (Undrafted) Tony Romo sits to pee (Undrafted) Kurt Warner (Undrafted) Jake Delhomme (Undrafted) In addition, a lot of the best quarterbacks of all time were not drafted in the 1st round, including: Boomer Esiason (2nd Round) Dan Fouts (2nd Round) Joe Montana (3rd Round) Johnny Unitas (9th Round) Roger Staubach (10th Round) Bart Starr (17th Round) Warren Moon (Undrafted) But but but the thread title says no QB's worth a crap fall to these rounds...hahahah great post. NEXT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lombardi's_kid_brother Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 Dave Krieg undraftedTrent Green 8th rd Dan Fouts 2nd rd Johnny Unitas 9th round Joe Theismann 4th rd Randall Cunningham 2nd rd Jim Zorn undrafted a few more And let's not forget that Three Fingers Brown and his famed gyro-pitch was a selection in the 189th round for the Newark Steveodores. Seriously....Johnny ****ing Unitas? The point is, the league has changed. Bob Griese led an undefeated team, and I think he was legally blind. It's a QB-driven league now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fat Stupid Loser Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 With Luck out of the mix there is no reason to draft a QB this year. Especially first or second round. If one of the top QB's happen to fall into the third round, maybe. None of them look to me like the guy that will change things here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TD_washingtonredskins Posted January 13, 2011 Share Posted January 13, 2011 And let's not forget that Three Fingers Brown and his famed gyro-pitch was a selection in the 189th round for the Newark Steveodores.Seriously....Johnny ****ing Unitas? Oh man, you're good for some great one-liners. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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