The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[SuperBash]

Espn has a insiders article on John Wall has he reached his ceiling ? Anybody care too share

It basically says John is a good player but not a franchise type player you build your team around, according to scouts and NBA executives

---------- Post added January-17th-2013 at 08:50 PM ----------

One of the most intriguing young players in the league returned to action last week. John Wall and his blazing, high-wire act are back from a knee injury and, finally, there's a spark of life in the Washington Wizards' franchise.

Wall, a third-year point guard, is unquestionably one of the most exciting players in the world. Liable to dunk on an entire team at any time, Wall is must-see TV.

But that's about all we know about the 6-foot-4 lightning bolt. Two up-and-down, at-times-dazzling, at-times-exasperating seasons have left us without answers as to how good Wall will eventually be.

Sometimes that's how it is; no one would've predicted greatness for John Stockton, Gary Payton, Steve Nash or Chauncey Billups after their first two seasons, so Wall's inconsistent play so far is not necessarily a definitive statement about what his future holds.

But other point guards, particularly recently, have defined themselves as future perennial All-Stars much quicker than Wall. I'm talking about guys like Chris Paul, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Rose.

Wall's numbers are fairly strong. He's averaged 16.3 points and 8.1 assists over his first two seasons, but he's also committed 3.8 turnovers a game while shooting about 41 percent from the floor. So what does it all mean? How good does Wall project to be?

To find out, we asked several NBA experts who are paid to assess talent, potential and productivity for their thoughts on Wall. Here's what two NBA team executives and two scouts think of the No. 1 pick of the 2010 draft.

The Eastern Conference executive:

"His stock never should've been as high as it was. His whole game is based on straight-line speed. He doesn't have good lateral moves in the half court. He's not a shooter, he's not leader, he's not a guy you can build a team around. What he is is a better version of Tyreke Evans.

"

He's not a shooter, he's not leader, he's not a guy you can build a team around. What he is is a better version of Tyreke Evans.

"

-- An Eastern Conference executive

"If you build your team around Wall, you're not building a strong playoff team. He doesn't have any pace to his game. He just has blinding speed. When Jason Kidd was young, he didn't have pace either. All he had was blinding speed. The difference, though, was that Kidd had native playmaking ability. He used his blinding speed to get other guys shots. Wall uses his speed to get to the rim every time and he doesn't make anybody better.

"I like him as a kid, and I hope for his sake that he watched enough tape while he was injured to appreciate pace. I also hope he likes Bradley Beal and realizes that he's a guy he can throw the ball to. You can certainly argue that over his first two seasons, he didn't have anyone to throw the ball to.''

The Western Conference executive:

"When you talk about the perception of him coming out of college, he got the benefit of being from Kentucky. … That probably led to him being a bit overrated. He definitely has not yet established himself as a great player, but you have to factor in the situation in Washington. How is that impacting him? It's easy to pounce on him, but a lot of people around the league are blaming the situation in Washington more than they're blaming him.''

The Eastern Conference scout:

"When he entered the league, I thought he could improve and one day get to that elite status. But judging by the way he's played so far, I'd say, 'No, he's not going to be an elite point guard.' He's so limited. He's not a great decision-maker and he's not a great scorer, so those two things right there keep him from entering the class of Chris Paul, Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving, Deron Williams, Russell Westbrook and those guys. He's not in that class. He's a tremendous athlete going north and south. I see a guy who thinks 'shoot first, pass second.' Maybe that's because he's on a bad team, but I think those are his instincts -- shoot first, pass second. And I think his jumper, or his lack of a jumper, is an Achilles' heel for him.

"I think of Wall as a poor man's Westbrook. Both are great athletes playing point guard and both are really, really fast. They both finish strong at the rim. I think that's one of the best things about Wall's game -- that he can get to the hole and finish. But I think he's a tier below Westbrook and those other elite guys. Yeah, Westbrook isn't a great decision-maker and his game is based largely on his athleticism, but he is also a good shooter. I hate to say Wall can't be like Westbrook because he's such a young kid, but I really don't think he can. I don't think he's in the class of Westbrook. When the ball comes off Westbrook's hand, it looks good. When it comes off Wall's hand, it's, 'Man, that thing ain't going in.' Can Wall get to that elite status? I have my doubts. Wall needed to stay in college longer. But he was going to be picked so high that you can't blame him for leaving.''

Another Eastern Conference scout:

"My general feeling is that Wall isn't a guy you build a team around. He's not a franchise guy. He's a very good player, but I'm getting that Steve Francis feeling. He's a very similar player to Francis. They're damn near identical. Now some people may immediately say, 'Wait a minute, he's better than Steve Francis.' But they're just remembering the end of Francis' career. Remember, that guy made some All-Star teams. Both are athletic guys playing point guard who really aren't necessarily point guards. They don't shoot it well, they're not the best decision-makers. They're very exciting, very explosive guys who can make plays. One minute they're exciting, the next minute they're boneheaded. They do so many things well that you can't help but appreciate their talent. They're nice players to have, but they can't be your franchise guy. They're more like a number 3 guy if you're going to be a really good team. To be fair, Wall will pass the ball. He's a little more of a point guard than Francis was. Francis was a little more of a scorer, more shoot first than Wall.

"Russell Westbrook is another great comparison. He's another tremendous athlete who's playing point guard and who often does some boneheaded stuff. But his talent is so great that you say, 'That's OK.' But Westbrook kind of underscores the point I'm making about Wall. You have to have a Kevin Durant and a couple of other guys with him. Oklahoma had Durant and Harden with Westbrook, so he's one of two or three guys; he's not your main guy. If you put Wall in Oklahoma and Westbrook in Washington, the Wizards would still suck and Oklahoma would still be good.''

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8852749/nba-executives-scouts-weigh-current-potential-value-john-wall

Edited January 18, 2013 by SuperBash

[Hersh]

It basically says John is a good player but not a franchise type player you build your team around, according to scouts and NBA executives

---------- Post added January-17th-2013 at 08:50 PM ----------

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/id/8852749/nba-executives-scouts-weigh-current-potential-value-john-wall

The most damning part of that article is that everyone except Ted and Ernie know how bad things are in Washington and that players would be better not playing there.

[Going Commando]

Saying Wall is shoot first pass second or that he doesn't make people around him better is basically admitting you haven't seen him enough to have an informed opinion about him.

Nothing from that article struck me as particularly insightful and a lot of the criticisms were poorly informed IMO. The one about him not being able to move laterally with quickness is pretty dumb. Wall is capable of getting to the rim from anywhere on the court and has such good CoD and such a good crossover he can absolutely break ankles. Ask Ish Smith.

And I think any talk about Wall's first two years should always be mentioned alongside the fact he only played 9 games alongside one single other good NBA player.

I'm not too worried about it in the end. I think Wall will open some eyes down the stretch of this season and I think he'll sustain an elite level of play next season.

[Destino]

I'm not as down as those scouts and execs are on Wall but he's not a max player if he can't shoot. Teams can have two max deals essentially and Wall isn't a guy that's in that category. This won't be popular around here but with two top spots scoring has to be a premium and there are very few players that aren't great scorers that I'd even consider for a max deal in today's nba.

Is there any team eager to give him a max deal in the NBA? I doubt it.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 12:59 AM ----------

Saying Wall is shoot first pass second or that he doesn't make people around him better is basically admitting you haven't seen him enough to have an informed opinion about him.

Nothing from that article struck me as particularly insightful and a lot of the criticisms were poorly informed IMO. The one about him not being able to move laterally with quickness is pretty dumb. Wall is capable of getting to the rim from anywhere on the court and has such good CoD and such a good crossover he can absolutely break ankles. Ask Ish Smith.

I agree that calling him a shoot first point guard is ridiculous. I think you are over rating his dribbling a bit because its not terribly effective in slower half out offenses (that the playoffs are essentially made of) but its better than those scouts execs seem to believe. He can absolutely move laterally and he has a ton of moves.

[Going Commando]

I'm not as down as those scouts and execs are on Wall but he's not a max player if he can't shoot. Teams can have two max deals essentially and Wall isn't a guy that's in that category. This won't be popular around here but with two top spots scoring has to be a premium and there are very few players that aren't great scorers that I'd even consider for a max deal in today's nba.

Is there any team eager to give him a max deal in the NBA? I doubt it.

John has a strong shot at a max deal when it comes time to negotiate. Worthiness for a max deal doesn't hinge on the ability to shoot IMO. Wall could be a top 15 player easily without ever developing a consistent J.

Do you consider Rondo a max contract player? I do. He's top 15 for sure IMO. The third or fourth best PG in the league today.

Rondo probably has the best contract in the NBA because Boston got such a massive bargain with him based on when they signed him. They were fortunate to negotiate with him the year before he had convincingly made the leap to elite status. After it happened, his contract became such an asset that you heard nothing but trade rumors for a year--serious talk of a Westbrook for Rondo swap--until it became clear that Rondo was too good to trade.

I could see something similar happening with Wall. I could see him putting up a season next year where you think he might be elite and a top 15 player, but you aren't quite sure yet because the team won't be elite and win 50+ games. So we get him on a bargain deal like Rondo of around 12 million per year and then soon after that the team will be mature enough to make their run and Wall will enter his prime as one of the best PGs in the league.

I think Wall is going to be a true franchise player. He's gotten really good. And he's such a transcendent physical talent. I suspect he's closer to putting it all together from a game management and defensive standpoint than people realize. He's a better finisher than he used to be too. His drive is becoming a legitimately elite tool--a signature offensive talent that can be a source of crunch time scoring.

Plus I think we got a second star in Beal. Beal's game is really remarkable when you think about how it has no holes in it.

I think a three star construction will be made possible by a rising soft cap. I can remember when the thing was in the low 50 million range a few years ago. I'm thinking it hits 80 sooner than later. The league is going to want teams to be able to keep three max players.

[CrypticVillain]

It's hard to hear but the best thing for the Wizards right now is to look good in losses. For Wall, Beal, and Nene to really show they are good and can be the foundation of something good. And for our chances at getting a high pick in the draft to accumulate. Wall & Beal need one more top notch young piece that can be a potential star to form the three star construction. I think you can probably get that in this draft with Shabazz or Nerlens or Zeller.

I didn't want to hi-jack the NBA thread so I am continuing this in here....

I finally had a chance to see Zeller last Saturday against the Wolfpack. I am not going to lie, he looked kind of good. You can definitely tell he has some talent.

[Going Commando]

I didn't want to hi-jack the NBA thread so I am continuing this in here....

I finally had a chance to see Zeller last Saturday against the Wolfpack. I am not going to lie, he looked kind of good. You can definitely tell he has some talent.

I think he's got some star quality to him. Same for Nerlens and Shabazz. Nerlens has the aura of being a winner and an overachiever and Zeller has been getting it done as the guy on one of the most visible and highly ranked teams in the country. Been a star both years. Shabazz looks like he can score 20 in his sleep.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 01:22 PM ----------

Maybe it's being from Boston and maybe it was hearing Jay Bilas making the connection, but Nerlens has a Patrick Ewing air about him. Obviously he doesn't have the scoring skills Ewing had when he was in his NBA prime. But once I saw the two put together, I was like damn. It helped me see Nerlens in a new light. I think he could go #1.

Zeller has something special about him too. Just the way everyone fixates on him and how opponents are scared of him.

I like Shabazz too. He's got that West Coast cool like James Harden. Just kind of naturally goes about his business and in the process delivers on all of the huge expectations.

I don't have as good a feel for Anthony Bennett or Alex Len. I figure they would be good too. I'm hoping we get a top 5 pick and all those guys declare.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

With Beal stepping up, has peoples bitterness on us passing on Harden subsided at all?

[StillUnknown]

With Beal stepping up, has peoples bitterness on us passing on Harden subsided at all?

Not really. I'd still make that deal 100% of the time.

Speaking of Beal, ol Teddy is feeling himself again: http://www.tedstake.com/2013/01/18/wait-what/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter

You would never guess his team only has 7 wins if you only read his blogs

[Shabby]

I like beal, but i would definitely still trade for harden. BTW, what happened to the NBA thread?

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 05:28 PM ----------

Edited January 18, 2013 by Shabby
posted in wrong thread

[nuposse87]

There's an interesting comparison to be observed with Harden's rookie season and Beals. Harden basically sucked between October and December as well. His shooting % overall began to pick it up in the 2nd half of the year and he finished pretty well in march and april. Except for december he was fairly good from 3pt land the whole season.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/h/hardeja01/splits/2010/

Beal has basically gotten better in every passing month and in 8 games this January putting up stupidly absurd stats for a rookie SG:

http://www.basketball-reference.com/players/b/bealbr01/splits/2013/

He has a TS of 58% currently in January, that's pretty damn good.

Now I can't say he'll make the massive strides in playmaking that Harden has, but I don't see why he can't be the scorer Harden is. That and a better defender, I've always felt Harden was overrated as a defender, and have been pleasently surprised with Beal's defense so far. He will come down to Earth, but Ernie and company may get a pass from me on the whole Harden fiasco if Beal continues his impressive ways.

[Going Commando]

If we end up drafting Shabazz, it's not going to bother me at all that we passed on Harden.

I don't think we passed on Harden for basketball reasons. I think it was about money. But I already thought, from a basketball perspective, that passing on Harden was the right call. I'm not as high on Harden as most and I was a lot higher on Beal than almost everybody else. I've always thought Beal has All Star potential and in three years, I don't think that there will be a big gap between Beal and Harden.

Edited January 18, 2013 by stevemcqueen1

[shuler74]

Hilarious...at a wizards game...

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFtz5QspcqY

[nuposse87]

^Al Horfords lil Bro, dude's got swag.

[Going Commando]

Denver is 15-2 at home this season. Hope this doesn't end up being a beating. Be nice to get a win against another quality opponent.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:12 PM ----------

One of the things that impresses me the most about Beal is his ability to make the right passes, take the right shots, keep the ball moving. He looks like a vet.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:18 PM ----------

Gallinari has the worst hair. What a tool.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:19 PM ----------

Nene is off tonight.

[StillUnknown]

Not sure why they have Beal guarding Gallinari, size differential is too much.

[Going Commando]

Probably hard for Nene to come back here. I know he was really close with George Karl. Beyond the usual player-coach bond. Fellow cancer survivors.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:23 PM ----------

Not sure why they have Beal guarding Gallinari, size differential is too much.

Ariza or Ves is the best option to guard Gallinari IMO. You can't put Nene, Seraphin, or Oak on him.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:25 PM ----------

Glad to see Jordan is back but not happy to see Beal get into foul trouble this early.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:27 PM ----------

You know what I've always wondered? Why do they let people sit so close to the court in basketball? In college you usually get a decent buffer around the court. Seems needlessly dangerous for both players and spectators to have them huddled around the court like that.

[StillUnknown]

Seraphin gets harder to watch game by game.

[SuperBash]

Sloppy play so far

[Going Commando]

Seraphin needs to catch the damn ball.

I'd love to see Wall dunk on JaVale.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:35 PM ----------

The officiating has been pretty crap so far.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:38 PM ----------

Interesting question raised by Buck there. Is Ariza our best defender?

[Skin'emAlive]

Ves, Seraphin, and Ariza sucking it up out there.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:39 PM ----------

Interesting question raised by Buck there. Is Ariza our best defender?

Too small of a sample size. If we are going by reputation alone, possibly. If we are talking about overall this season, id nominate Temple.

[StillUnknown]

Interesting question raised by Buck there. Is Ariza our best defender?

He's our best perimeter defender, sadly, I still don't think that makes up for what he takes away on offense.

[SuperBash]

My eyes have never laid eyes on such a beautiful swish, from that of Jonathan Wall.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:44 PM ----------

Ariza to Seraphin on an offensive set. That was going to work out well.

[Going Commando]

Seraphin gets lazy with his fundamentals. Take shortcuts with his shot mechanics and doesn't set his feet and he's not going out and getting his passes, led to two of them being bobbled.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:47 PM ----------

That bucket chart isn't very accurate. Beal's missed three was from the elbow, not the corner.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:49 PM ----------

Definitely going to lose if we keep turning it over like this. Oak needs to be more aggressive with the ball on the low block and take that hook shot. He can make it.

---------- Post added January-18th-2013 at 09:51 PM ----------

Nice block, nice pass, nice shot from Price. Those transition threes off the dribble with your body moving forward like that are so hard.

[StillUnknown]

This is an ugly ass game.