The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Skin'emAlive]

I cant believe we are still talking about Ves. Dudes best game of his career in 2 years is a 10/7 and we are here talking about him like he is untouchable. Yea, he had a decent game last night. I guess. He still cant make any free throws ( about less than 23% now). Still cant take a shot that isnt halfway in the basket already. And still almost fouled out in limited minutes. Id much rather spend the time developing Singleton over Ves, if they are our only options. Singleton must have said something stupid in the locker room to get this far in the dog house.

[Going Commando]

I'm starting to feel really good in the make up of this team. Did y'all feel better when the make up of the team was Wall/Young/McGee/Blatche or Wall/Beal/Nene/Okafor/Jan/Crawford?

Definitely feel better about the team today than before the Nene trade.

It feels like some of the puzzle pieces are starting to fit into place. But I still think there are several pieces missing. I think the two biggest questions we have moving forward are:

- Long term starting big man when Okafor's contract is expiring. We need size and rebounding.

- Long term starting SF, ideally a scorer that defends multiple positions, but definitely not a black hole.

I think Martell is a good enough starting SF for now but he's a FA after this year. We need to make a decision with him and if we don't keep him, we absolutely need to have a better plan at SF for next year than we did the first two seasons of Wall's career.

And we are going to have to make a tough decision about Okafor by next year. I honestly don't know what to do about him. Part of me says we can't afford to lose him if we're trying to build a successful team now. Another part of me says he's aging and he is only an above average starting center anyway and his huge expiring contract is too valuable not to leverage for all we can. Plus I'm not sure we could successfully resign Oak once he hits the market. We may not have the money and even if we did, would he want to stay?

I don't think Seraphin is ready to be the starting center for a good team. Too many lapses and not a good enough rebounder.

Jan certainly isn't ready by next season.

A street FA isn't going to cut it. I doubt we're going to be capable of luring a quality big man that would be a long term solution in UFA. And the FA market for centers is horrible after the top 5 or 6 guys this summer.

Nene can be the center but then you just create the same need at PF. Booker is not reliable enough to pencil in for any significant role at this point.

It's a big question. I'm thinking we're going to have to trade Okafor for another big man or we're going to have to try and get one in the draft and make do with journeymen until he is ready. This is a big part of why I think it would be so crucial to get Boogie Cousins. He actually wants to be here and he's a potential impact big. Failing that, I think we're going to have to get lucky and draft someone like Nerlens, Len, or Zeller or maybe even Bennett to get a high quality long term big man.

Seems like we're aggressively pursuing solutions to get a scoring SF with all of the Rudy Gay talk. If we don't get him we could potentially draft Shabazz or Bennett. If we cant draft them, we could probably find one in FA.

The other big question I have is in how to consolidate our roster into a quality 8-10 man rotation. We seem to have a lot of decent chips and prospects like Price, Ariza, Booker, Jan, Singleton, Seraphin, Crawford, and Temple. How do we contract that group down to 4 or 5 key role players? Who do we keep and who do we trade or let go? Have to answer those questions soon.

[TradeTheBeal!]

I cant believe we are still talking about Ves. Dudes best game of his career in 2 years is a 10/7 and we are here talking about him like he is untouchable. Yea' date=' he had a decent game last night. I guess. He still cant make any free throws ( about less than 23% now). Still cant take a shot that isnt halfway in the basket already. And still almost fouled out in limited minutes. Id much rather spend the time developing Singleton over Ves, if they are our only options. Singleton must have said something stupid in the locker room to get this far in the dog house.[/quote']

He had a 16 point, 4 steal game on 8/8 shooting last year during our strong finish....and we all had this conversation then which led us in a circle right back to the same hopeful optimism. I'm just trying to find some light in the darkness and I think I saw a little last night...maybe.

[SuperBash]

A future big man is a huge concern for me. We're gonna need to find one soon. I'd rather draft a big man and explore trade/FA options to fill the SF role

[nuposse87]

If the Spurs end up needing a big to make one last push we might be able to clear some cap space by unloading Okafor for Jackson. We could also entertain the idea of Seraphin for Leonard...but if Seraphin shows improved effectiveness with Wall back I'd rather hold onto him.

[Destino]

A future big man is a huge concern for me. We're gonna need to find one soon. I'd rather draft a big man and explore trade/FA options to fill the SF role

This team still needs a primary scorer more than anything else. A big that is actually big and rebounds would be great though.

[Going Commando]

If the Spurs end up needing a big to make one last push we might be able to clear some cap space by unloading Okafor for Jackson. We could also entertain the idea of Seraphin for Leonard...but if Seraphin shows improved effectiveness with Wall back I'd rather hold onto him.

I don't really want to trade our bigs for small unless the SF is really good and has long term value. That'd open up an even bigger need for a PF/C IMO.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 04:03 PM ----------

This team still needs a primary scorer more than anything else. A big that is actually big and rebounds would be great though.

I think there is a better chance that Wall or Beal emerges as a quality first option than Seraphin or Ves emerges as a true banger that can grab boards and hold deep position. It's so hard to get good big men. If we don't draft one, I think we would have to take a chance on an unproven player like Tiago Splitter in the vein of Omer Asik and overpay him and hope they end up being worth it. Maybe we could deal for someone like Marcin Gortat? Maybe sign Nikola Pekovic?

This summer we have no shot at Josh Smith, Howard, Bynum, or Jefferson. Probably no shot at Paul Millsap. Probably little chance for guys like Kaman, Brand, and David West, although I think David West could be a really nice short term option. I wonder if we would have a chance at JJ Hickson?

After those names, it gets really, really barren in the FA market this summer. You'll start talking yourself into the likes of Desanga Diop.

That coupled with the top of this draft class looking pretty good for bigs suggests to me that's going to be our best long term option. Five of DX's top six players right now are big men if you count Anthony Bennett as a PF. Then again, it could be years before any big we draft becomes a capable starter meaning we're still left searching for short term solutions.

It would be really nice to get Cousins. He'd fill the need for a big and a primary scorer. In this year's draft the only players I see maybe being able to do that are Zeller and Bennett, but Bennett is short and Zeller doesn't rebound well.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 04:11 PM ----------

A future big man is a huge concern for me. We're gonna need to find one soon. I'd rather draft a big man and explore trade/FA options to fill the SF role

I think you're probably right but if the draft breaks a certain way for us, I think drafting Bennett to be a SF/PF combo forward and then going out and getting a 7 foot banger like Pekovic or Splitter could be a decent option.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 04:40 PM ----------

1.) Shabazz Muhammad - BPA, fills need for scoring SF

2.) Nerlens Noel - best potential among the bigs, fills need for a big man that rebounds and defends

3.) Anthony Bennett - Future 20/10 combo forward IMO. Aggressive go to scorer.

4.) Cody Zeller - seven footer that can score. Instant low post offense out of the PF spot.

5.) Alex Len - true center

6.) Ben McLemore - draft him and trade him for a vet piece that fits.

7.) Isaiah Austin - 7 footer that can run pick and pop, ridiculous length, but very long term project.

8.) Poythress - decent option at SF, can definitely score but looks like he can't shoot. At this point I'm just trying to trade the pick.

Hopefully we'll still get a top three pick although we're playing so strong right now I doubt it'll happen unless the other bad teams start winning again.

[nuposse87]

There is no way I'd want Josh Smith to be our PF, I know he's gonna ask for a hilarious amount of money but his game never seems conducive to actually winning. Philly has too much invested in Bynum so I think he'd stay there assuming he comes back healthy. I imagine West is going to stay in Indiana barring a stupid offer from another team. If I had to guess, Milsap will probably look to signing with a contender, he's got skill, and some prime years left in him. I'm actually not as concerned about the PF spot for us. Okafor is proving to be a dilemma nowadays though. I'm not sure if this is the Okafor we should expect the rest of the way. I want to sell high on him if at possible. Leonard has true top 10 potential for the SF spot and is exactly the type of wing shooter to compliment down the line. It would probably take seraphin to get him, and I know the spurs wanted seraphin in the '10 draft...and if the spurs want a player...there is probably good reason why. The SF market is extremely weak which is probably why the FO is exploring Gay trades.

What we really need is a stretch 4. I would have liked Singleton to be become that guy, but that dream has come and gone. I'd even entertain bringing in Al Harrington next season as a stretch 4 off the bench, I know he's recovering from a staph infection this season but maybe he can be had for cheap from ORL.

[Destino]

The Wizards need size around the basket. A stretch four is fine, if he's a big 6'10 or larger, not a Chris Singleton undersized type. The team is loaded with undersized players. Crawford and Beal are undersized, an ideal SG is 6'6 with a huge wingspan. Nene, Okafor, and Seraphin are well short of the ideal 7'0 or larger center. Booker is undersized at PF.

if the Wizards landed Len I'd be happy. I still think they need a primary scoring option though.

[Going Commando]

There is no way I'd want Josh Smith to be our PF, I know he's gonna ask for a hilarious amount of money but his game never seems conducive to actually winning. Philly has too much invested in Bynum so I think he'd stay there assuming he comes back healthy. I imagine West is going to stay in Indiana barring a stupid offer from another team. If I had to guess, Milsap will probably look to signing with a contender, he's got skill, and some prime years left in him. I'm actually not as concerned about the PF spot for us. Okafor is proving to be a dilemma nowadays though. I'm not sure if this is the Okafor we should expect the rest of the way. I want to sell high on him if at possible. Leonard has true top 10 potential for the SF spot and is exactly the type of wing shooter to compliment down the line. It would probably take seraphin to get him, and I know the spurs wanted seraphin in the '10 draft...and if the spurs want a player...there is probably good reason why. The SF market is extremely weak which is probably why the FO is exploring Gay trades.

What we really need is a stretch 4. I would have liked Singleton to be become that guy, but that dream has come and gone. I'd even entertain bringing in Al Harrington next season as a stretch 4 off the bench, I know he's recovering from a staph infection this season but maybe he can be had for cheap from ORL.

Josh Smith is pretty good. He's very valuable defensively. I think he could be more effective offensively with great PG play from Wall. But it's an academic discussion, we'll never have him. And you're right, he's going to get paid a ridiculous amount of money.

I agree with you that the PF spot is less of an issue than C. Nene, Seraphin, and Ves are all options at PF. Better options at PF than C. But my thinking is if you can get a really good PF but can't get a good C, go for the PF and just play Nene at C.

I like Kawhi Leonard but I'm not sure how realistic an option he is. Seems unlikely the Spurs would deal him for Okafor given the contract situations of each, I'm not sure how you make a trade for him. Are you saying trade Seraphin for Leonard and deal with Oak separately? If so, dealing Seraphin for a perimeter player means you've got even more of a personnel problem in the front court when the time to make a decision with Okafor comes up.

Seraphin and Nene can stretch the floor and run pick and fade and run the floor and operate in space. I think what would be best is a true banger that's got great size and is a quality rebounder. Hard to get but something close would be good.

[nuposse87]

Josh Smith is pretty good. He's very valuable defensively. I think he could be more effective offensively with great PG play from Wall. But it's an academic discussion, we'll never have him. And you're right, he's going to get paid a ridiculous amount of money.

I agree with you that the PF spot is less of an issue than C. Nene, Seraphin, and Ves are all options at PF. Better options at PF than C. But my thinking is if you can get a really good PF but can't get a good C, go for the PF and just play Nene at C.

I like Kawhi Leonard but I'm not sure how realistic an option he is. Seems unlikely the Spurs would deal him for Okafor given the contract situations of each, I'm not sure how you make a trade for him. Are you saying trade Seraphin for Leonard and deal with Oak separately? If so, dealing Seraphin for a perimeter player means you've got even more of a personnel problem in the front court when the time to make a decision with Okafor comes up.

Seraphin and Nene can stretch the floor and run pick and fade and run the floor and operate in space. I think what would be best is a true banger that's got great size and is a quality rebounder. Hard to get but something close would be good.

Truthfully it should be an option explored closer to the trade deadline. I'm giving seraphin a pass for his inconsistencies this season without proper PG play. If he shows noticeable improvement in efficiency and overall play, I'd rather keep and go for cousins instead. If seraphin continues to be, meh, and if the Spurs are in need a of a big, I think Leonard for Seraphin is pretty fair. Although I'd try to squeeze more out of them if possible. Okafor deals should be mostly used to clear cap space.

One interesting thought:

Okafor to Dallas for Kaman (expiring)+Crowder(I think he has Starter potential and the stats should back it up)+D. Jones (expiring)+a pic.

We shed salary and get a guy we absolutely SHOULD have drafted in the first place.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 08:23 PM ----------

The Wizards need size around the basket. A stretch four is fine, if he's a big 6'10 or larger, not a Chris Singleton undersized type. The team is loaded with undersized players. Crawford and Beal are undersized, an ideal SG is 6'6 with a huge wingspan. Nene, Okafor, and Seraphin are well short of the ideal 7'0 or larger center. Booker is undersized at PF.

if the Wizards landed Len I'd be happy. I still think they need a primary scoring option though.

Size is fine, but it isn't a necessity anymore, lets be honest, the games has gotten smaller. You don't need an all star 7 footer to win. Height also isn't a good gauge, standing reach matters way more. How much does it matter if you're 6'6 but 2-3 inches of that are lost in ur neck. Beal may be 6'4 but he's got like no neck, and a solid frame. "Primary scoring option" also needs to be redefined. The days of 24ppg players seems to be dwindling. It might be just me, but scoring is done a lot more by committee now. I think GMs realize there are only so many elite scoring options in the NBA at any given time and they have a better chance to compete with a team of balanced scoring proper team play.The spurs, 04 Pistons should be indicative of that, and while Timmy is a HOFer I don't see the need of having 2 20ppg guys as a must. I think 4 15ppg guys should stand just as good a shot so long you have one guy who can create (in our case, Wall).

Edited January 16, 2013 by nuposse87

[Going Commando]

The Wizards need size around the basket. A stretch four is fine, if he's a big 6'10 or larger, not a Chris Singleton undersized type. The team is loaded with undersized players. Crawford and Beal are undersized, an ideal SG is 6'6 with a huge wingspan. Nene, Okafor, and Seraphin are well short of the ideal 7'0 or larger center. Booker is undersized at PF.

if the Wizards landed Len I'd be happy. I still think they need a primary scoring option though.

How many good king sized 6'6+ SGs are out there though? Kobe, Joe Johnson, Paul George, Rip Hamilton, Tyreke Evans, JR Smith, Vince Carter, Iggy, Manu, K-Mart, Klay Thompson. James Harden is close at 6'5 with great arm length. But there are caveats in the list. Among those guys, Johnson, George, Evans, Iggy, Manu, Harden and K-Mart are all tweeners that spend as much time throughout their careers at the 3 as at the 2. And despite their size, Kobe, Johnson, George, Harden, and Iggy are the only ones who are worth a damn defensively. Iggy and George are the only ones who are outstanding defenders at this point, both tweeners.

Some others who aren't that good--Jason Richarson, Nick Young, Alec Burks, Ronnie Brewer, DeMar DeRozan. They've got prototype size but none are that good defensively.

In the academic sense, 6'6+ is the ideal size for a 2 but in actuality there are only a few of those guys in the NBA. And a lot of the best defenders at the position are 6'4 and below: Tony Allen = 6'4, Avery Bradley = 6'2, and Dwyane Wade = 6'4.

Beal is a legit 6'5 in his shoes with good arm length and he's got strength. Crawford is probably a little bit shorter but seems like he's got good length. Height won't be what holds either back defensively. And I actually think Beal will develop into a very good defender eventually. He won't be a liability at that spot in general.

Seraphin is also a little short but I don't think his size is much of a disadvantage. He is a great leaper and he's pretty close to 6'10 and has a 7'3 wingspan. 270+ pounds. He's got good enough size to thrive defensively. I think the reason he struggles is more of an issue with IQ and instincts than anything physical.

Booker is definitely undersized. Ves has ideal length but is under-weight, probably only about 230 when you look at him. He's got a body like Joakim Noah did when he got into the league.

Okafor is a bit short and slim for the position but he's banged out a pretty long and successful career for himself despite his size. It hasn't really hindered him as a defender and rebounder.

I don't think Nene is undersized at all. I think he actually sports a size advantage against most of his matchups. There are very, very few good true seven footers in the league. Not even Duncan, Dwight, Noah, or KG are true seven footers and they are probably the best defensive big men in the game.

I do agree with you it'd be nice to get a true seven footer with length and strength who can occupy a ton of space like Asik, but we might have to settle for unconventional body types like Anthony Bennett as our best options. In general, I don't think we're at too big a size disadvantage most nights. We've got good size in our PFs (they're all PF/C tweeners) and the size and athleticism in our backcourt to defend pretty much any body.

[Destino]

Size is fine, but it isn't a necessity anymore, lets be honest, the games has gotten smaller. You don't need an all star 7 footer to win. Height also isn't a good gauge, standing reach matters way more. How much does it matter if you're 6'6 but 2-3 inches of that are lost in ur neck. Beal may be 6'4 but he's got like no neck, and a solid frame. "Primary scoring option" also needs to be redefined. The days of 24ppg players seems to be dwindling. It might be just me, but scoring is done a lot more by committee now. I think GMs realize there are only so many elite scoring options in the NBA at any given time and they have a better chance to compete with a team of balanced scoring proper team play.The spurs, 04 Pistons should be indicative of that, and while Timmy is a HOFer I don't the need of having 2 20ppg guys is a must. I think 4 15ppg guys should stand just as good a shot so long you have one guy who can create (in our case, Wall).

Size is an advantage. Durant's insane length, like Dirk, makes them insanely difficult to deal with when they choose to shot from the perimeter. Lebron and Melo have massive frames to go along with their impressive skills and it allows them to bully their way to the basket when they choose to. Size and length in the NBA both matter and when a athlete with elite skills happens to have a ideal frame the result is unstoppable. It's fine to have a few players with skill that overcome a less than ideal frame, Kenneth Faried is a good example, but when the entire team seems to be built small I think it becomes a problem.

As for primary scoring options I think they are as important as they ever were. Look NBA finals and you'll see a ton of them even if they are older now and less productive on average. What is the last NBA champ without a guy that could impose his will offensively? Teams like the nuggets with a bunch of productive players with no real dominant offensive player struggle in the post season.

The Clippers are the best chance of seeing another one of those teams IMO. They have some dominant players but no true "give him the ball and get out of the way" scoring options.

[Going Commando]

Truthfully it should be an option explored closer to the trade deadline. I'm giving seraphin a pass for his inconsistencies this season without proper PG play. If he shows noticeable improvement in efficiency and overall play, I'd rather keep and go for cousins instead. If seraphin continues to be, meh, and if the Spurs are in need a of a big, I think Leonard for Seraphin is pretty fair. Although I'd try to squeeze more out of them if possible. Okafor deals should be mostly used to clear cap space.

One interesting thought:

Okafor to Dallas for Kaman (expiring)+Crowder(I think he has Starter potential and the stats should back it up)+D. Jones (expiring)+a pic.

We shed salary and get a guy we absolutely SHOULD have drafted in the first place.

Seraphin for Leonard straight up is good in the sense we'd be getting the better player out of it. Leonard is better than Seraphin right now no doubt and he has good upside. He defends and rebounds and he has really developed as a catch and shoot option. He's looking like a young, better shooting but less athletic Iggy/Crash type.

But we can't make that decision totally in a vacuum that ignores position and our roster situation. If you trade Seraphin for small, then you've pretty much got to keep Okafor or replace him immediately with another true big.

The second deal you discuss with the Mavs asks them to give up too much IMO. Kaman is a good player, almost as good as Oak is. Asking them to give up him and Crowder plus some expiring contracts seems like a ton. Especially since they're not really contending now and aren't going to with Okafor.

Size is fine, but it isn't a necessity anymore, lets be honest, the games has gotten smaller. You don't need an all star 7 footer to win. Height also isn't a good gauge, standing reach matters way more. How much does it matter if you're 6'6 but 2-3 inches of that are lost in ur neck. Beal may be 6'4 but he's got like no neck, and a solid frame. "Primary scoring option" also needs to be redefined. The days of 24ppg players seems to be dwindling. It might be just me, but scoring is done a lot more by committee now. I think GMs realize there are only so many elite scoring options in the NBA at any given time and they have a better chance to compete with a team of balanced scoring proper team play.The spurs, 04 Pistons should be indicative of that, and while Timmy is a HOFer I don't see the need of having 2 20ppg guys as a must. I think 4 15ppg guys should stand just as good a shot so long you have one guy who can create (in our case, Wall).

I'm in agreement about size. Reach certainly trumps height. Ben Wallace demonstrated that. IQ, quickness, and leaping ability matter most for a defender. Length gives you a margin for error but it doesn't help you if your instincts and IQ are no good or you're too slow to deal with slashers and recover in pick and roll D.

Plus the way defense is going to be played has been changing. Anthony Davis is the wave of the future. He's a 6'10 beanpole but his ridiculous 7'7 wingspan and explosive hops and ability to cover a ton of territory is the ultimate defensive weapon of the future. He makes the court smaller for the opposing offense. Today's NBA is such a guard and slashing SF game. Spacing the floor is everything on offense. The best defenses are going to have rangy guys who negate their opponents ability to do that. You need to have that space defender.

That's why I think Nerlens could be a great pickup despite the fact he's "only" 6'10 and is a bean pole. That's why I'm hoping Ves really pans out as a defender.

All that said, every team would still love to have a 7' mountain in the middle of their lane making a wall in front of the rim. Especially if he's tough and rebounds.

On the scoring side, I think you're right that a team with an elite PG doesn't need those classic 20+ PPG scoring types to thrive. That PG will execute an elite offense whether you've got exceptionally creative scorers or not. He will be creating the space for his teammates and getting them the ball in their spots no matter what they do.

What you do need is reliable go to offense for crunch time. That's usually only going to come from one gifted and diverse scorer. If you don't have this you aren't going to go far in the playoffs, and I'm pretty sure almost every championship team has had it. If you don't you need to be crushing your matchups at every spot and playing dominant team ball so you don't have to play many close games or come from behind.

I think we're actually going to be OK here though. I think we'll get crunch time scoring from Wall and Beal. Beal looks clutch and he's got a very versatile set of scoring tools. He can get that inside-out game we can use to keep a tough crunch time D off balance. And Wall's ability to get to the rim is so elite. When all else fails, Wall will get to the basket and/or get to the line so long as he's got a modest amount of space to operate.

[nuposse87]

Size is an advantage. Durant's insane length, like Dirk, makes them insanely difficult to deal with when they choose to shot from the perimeter. Lebron and Melo have massive frames to go along with their impressive skills and it allows them to bully their way to the basket when they choose to. Size and length in the NBA both matter and when a athlete with elite skills happens to have a ideal frame the result is unstoppable. It's fine to have a few players with skill that overcome a less than ideal frame, Kenneth Faried is a good example, but when the entire team seems to be built small I think it becomes a problem.

As for primary scoring options I think they are as important as they ever were. Look NBA finals and you'll see a ton of them even if they are older now and less productive on average. What is the last NBA champ without a guy that could impose his will offensively? Teams like the nuggets with a bunch of productive players with no real dominant offensive player struggle in the post season.

The Clippers are the best chance of seeing another one of those teams IMO. They have some dominant players but no true "give him the ball and get out of the way" scoring options.

Durant and Dirk have elite beyond words size because of the style of their game. Melo and LBJ aren't terribly big as they are simply bulls when they drive to the basket. Again though, height doesn't matter IMO, standing reach is a better gauge. Blake Griffin has a 8'9 standing reach...Trevor Booker has an 8'10 standing reach...In no way is Booker the basketball talent Blake is (mostly cause he's always injured) but he's comparable in his ability to contest shots. I'm not saying don't go for size...but we've drafted some guys, who are athletically gifted...but not exactly gifted in playing basketball well. We need to focus on guys who can actually put the ball in the hole without leaving too much disparity in the size department. Guys like Booker with his standing reach are find for todays PFs, Seraphin with his strength and wingspan are fine play center. Their problems aren't physical as it is simply playing the game better.

For the primary scoring argument, I'm not going to consider Miami and OKC, because honestly, we're a bit away from being in their league (unless you count our hysterical wins). Melo is a beast of a scorer so thats one right there, the Spur's leading scorer is Parker at 19.5 ppg, Pierce is at 19.6, and the clippers with Griffin at 17.7.

I'd include Harden in this....but I don't think HOU is a threat yet...So there are people like Melo, Durant and LBJ who will lead their teams to contention on elite numbers...but either people are starting out slow...or most other contenders don't seem to NEED 20 ppg+ scorers. It doesn't hurt to have them...but I just think its more practical to build a team with balanced scoring. That being said....Beal is putting up 17ppg this January. I don't think its unreasonable to think he'll become a 20 ppg player by the end of next season. Wall puts up about 16, on average, to below average efficiency. If he finally turns the corner, I don't think it'd be unreasonable to see a bump up to 19-20 ppg from him. Couple with the fact Nene is good for about 15-17 and seraphin 13-15 we should get a fair amount of points efficiently. Also, low post scoring will count for a lot if this team can make a playoff push (most likely next season).

*FWIW, if we somehow manage a pick between 3-5, I would draft Len. A future frontcourt of Len and Seraphin would probably solve many issues.

Edited January 16, 2013 by nuposse87

[Going Commando]

The Clippers are the best chance of seeing another one of those teams IMO. They have some dominant players but no true "give him the ball and get out of the way" scoring options.

Scoring isn't a problem for the Clippers because they've got an elite PG. He's a scheme busting offensive player that creates the open looks for his teammates for them, they really don't have to do much. Blake is also a pretty dominant offensive player. Too much power and athleticism to deal with when it's paired with his handles and ability to move freely around the court. He's pretty much the ultimate finisher for an elite PG to pair with. Also they've got a lot of good offensive players among their role players. Caron, Crawford, Grant Hill, Willie Green, all pretty good spot up shooters. Chauncey Billups is too when healthy. And they're fortunate to have a great backup PG in Eric Bledsoe who can keep everything running at a high level when CP3 isn't in the game. They're loaded. Probably at least 8 or 9 players on that team capable of starting for other teams. Such a huge punch from their bench.

Also Jamal Crawford is a really creative scorer that when you need to, you can clear out of his way and he'll make something happen for you.

Anyway, the hope is that we'll have a similar model with Wall and his ability to space the floor for the team. We won't need a LeBron or Melo or Durant to clear out their side and then they go out and create all kinds of shots for themselves on their own. Wall's speed means you get great shots out of a Martell Webster because everyone is afraid of the drive from Wall. Plus during the regular season you can definitely thrive offensively just by cranking up a very high tempo. You don't even need an elite PG for that. Just a pretty good one like Ty Lawson and a lot of athletic guys to run with him.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 09:32 PM ----------

That being said....Beal is putting up 17ppg this January. I don't think its unreasonable to think he'll become a 20 ppg player by the end of next season. Wall puts up about 16, on average, to below average efficiency. If he finally turns the corner, I don't think it'd be unreasonable to see a bump up to 19-20 ppg from him. Couple with the fact Nene is good for about 15-17 and seraphin 13-15 we should get a fair amount of points efficiently. Also, low post scoring will count for a lot if this team can make a playoff push (most likely next season).

You have to factor Wall's ability to get to the FT line into his efficiency just as you do with Harden. Wall's drive is one of the most efficient weapons in the league because he gets to the line at a ridiculous rate.

Ideally, we would get a 3 who can go out and score. We've got a lot of room for that. But we don't have to have it. What we must have from the three is someone who can spot up and shoot from range. Otherwise you're wasting Wall's ability to space the floor. And if he can't shoot at all you're actually hurting Wall because the defender as no fear of collapsing the lane to help out. That's what we dealt with last year having Ves and Singleton at the three and no consistent shooting from the two either.

If we're really lucky, we'll be able to draft Shabazz and kill two birds with one stone. Shabazz can definitely shoot from range and keep the floor spaced for Wall. And he also brings that 20 PPG ISO scoring ability to the table too. When you need to you can give it to him and he'll make something happen. He's outstanding taking guys off the dribble and he's got a nasty little post game.

I think Wall, Beal, Shabazz, Nene, and Seraphin would eventually be an unstoppable and hugely productive offense.

That said, we all know we're not going to be lucky enough to get Shabazz.

I like Len but I'm not yet prepared to accept he's a better player than Zeller. I guess I need to see more out of him to be convinced.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 09:45 PM ----------

Zeller is showing out against Wisconsin so far. So quick and such a good finisher. He can drop 20 points with ridiculous efficiency barely breaking a sweat.

[SuperBash]

Man, what I would do for Lamarcus Aldridge to play the 4 for us...

[Going Commando]

Zeller is 8-8 tonight for 18 points in the first half.

Marvelous offensive player but he's going to have to really work to improve as a defender and rebounder.

So far I think him, Shabazz, and Bennett are by far the best scorers in the class.

---------- Post added January-15th-2013 at 09:54 PM ----------

Man, what I would do for Lamarcus Aldridge to play the 4 for us...

Check out Zeller on ESPN. Pretty cool seeing the two of them juxtaposed on TV tonight.

[skinfan2k]

Redick is a free agent after this offseason, the wizards should attack him

[nuposse87]

I think if we continue to win games, it is somewhat unreasonable to think we're going to be in the top 2. When you look at our needs its basically rebounding, and wing shooting. I think Bennet is probably the guy that could help us the most right now. He is short, for a PF, but has superior athleticism and a massive wingspan (his standing reach should let us know how high he'll go in the draft unless he miraculously grows an inch or two). The fact he can actually knock down a 3pt shot a game is very appealing. I kind of see a hybrid of Faried and any stretch 4.

Trading back for a lower pick while trying to dump some salary ought to be brought into the equation as well. Guys like Poythress and Porter could be decent prospects by years end (I like poythress right now actually) but neither will go very high I imagine. There are a ton of project Centers that could pan out to be good players. Len, Noel, Gobert, Austin, hell maybe even Plumlee. Zeller too I guess, although I think his alligator arms and lack of athleticism will heavily cap his ceiling.

[Going Commando]

Zeller is pretty athletic. Better athlete than all of the other true bigs except Noel. He does an outstanding job running the floor and he blows by people off the dribble and he can throw down some powerful and athletic finishes.

He's not going to be winning dunk contests but he's got superior quickness and coordination for the position. It's how he's able to score so much. I also think he's going to end up being pretty strong down the line.

His length will probably limit him from ever being a good shot blocker and offensive rebounder but he could still be a good defender with poor length like Blake Griffin is. Griffin has poor length, only an 8'9 standing reach. He can't block shots but he plays strong positional D and gets a lot of steals and strips around the basket and he is a rebounding machine. Zeller hasn't been an great rebounder, strength has been an issue for him in college. But if he does get stronger and gets good on the defensive glass, he'll be an All Star in the NBA. He's got 20 PPG on 55+ % shooting in his future. Scoring bigs with his volume of points and his absurd efficiency are extremely valuable.

I think he's a better prospect right now than Len, Austin, McLemore, and maybe Bennett. I like Bennett's perimeter game and his athleticism and NBA ready strength but he's kind of a tweener. Is he a SF or a PF? Probably a SF given his size and skill set but he's going to get torched defensively at that position. I think his defensive potential is really low, lower than Zeller's even because I do see Zeller eventually becoming a solid positional defender when he finally gets his strength. Bennett is going to be someone you're probably going to have to hide on that end.

He's a remarkable offensive talent though. Great scoring instincts and an incredibly aggressive mentality. One quibble I have is he's got no back to the basket game. He's not going to be able to blow by everybody in the NBA like he does in college. Particularly at the SF position. He's going to have to body up SFs and use his strength to win.

So right now I'm thinking Zeller over Bennett because he can play a true PF or even C once he gets stronger. He's going to be able to blow by NBA centers.

I;m thinking our best bet is to be able to trade the draft pick for a vet talent with long term value like DeMarcus Cousins. Failing that, I do hope we get a high pick and are able to pick Nerlens or Shabazz. Failing that, I'd be happy with take McLemore and then dealing him similar to how we got so many offers for Beal (though Beal was a better prospect IMO). Or I'd be happy with Zeller, Len, Bennett, or Austin. If we don't get any of them, then I'd as soon deal out of the pick.

I don't really like Porter in the top ten. He's a project. He's awkward and he's got a fundamental lack of strength. He's got bad shot mechanics because he's had to compensate for his lack of strength IMO. I think it'll be years before he reaches his potential because his body has so much development in front of it. I don't think he'll make much of an impact in the mean time.

I like Poythress in general but I'm not sure he's a great fit for us. Can he shoot from range? He's only taken 19 threes this year, and even though he's made them at a good clip, how can you really determine his range from that few attempts? If he can't shoot I don't know if I want him. Our SF needs to be able to shoot. More so than for other teams because our PG is an elite slasher that can't shoot. BTW, I think Poythress is a top ten lock.

Archie Goodwin is pretty good but he doesn't really fill a need and might struggle to get enough minutes for us. He's a 6'5 slashing wing that can't shoot.

I don't know about Plumlee. On the one hand, he's having a great year and seems to have taken a huge leap from where he was last year. On the other, you've got to wonder if he's not just dominating boys because he's a senior. He didn't do much of anything his first two years. I see him as kind of a poor man's Joakim Noah. doesn't look as long or as instinctive as Noah. But like Noah he's scrappy, a big hustler, rebounds well, sees the floor and passes well, is a pretty good post defender, and does a good job converting his somewhat limited opportunities around the basket at a highly efficient rate. And like Noah, he can't shoot or stretch the floor although recently Noah seems to have gotten that awful shot to start falling and he makes his FTs.

I'd draft Plumlee around 10 or so but I don't think his upside is as high as Noah's has been. Put it this way, I'd be very surprised if he ends up being as good as Noah is now.

[nuposse87]

I don't want to get into an argument regarding Zeller, again...but I fully believe in a "deep" draft he's a guy that ought to be drafted between 12-18. He has good finishing ability, but I doubt he'll be as efficient against NBA size. He isn't quicker then 4s in this league and his standing reach will probably make it difficult for him to be effective offensively in the post against 5s. Honestly I see a rich mans Tyler Hansborough.

If we get any pick 3 or lower, our first priority ought to be to trade out and see what kind of talent we can get while offloading salary. If that doesn't happen, perhaps trade back while doing the same, but maybe not yielding the same amount of salary shedding as we may desire.

[Destino]

I don't want to get into an argument regarding Zeller, again...but I fully believe in a "deep" draft he's a guy that ought to be drafted between 12-18. He has good finishing ability, but I doubt he'll be as efficient against NBA size. He isn't quicker then 4s in this league and his standing reach will probably make it difficult for him to be effective offensively in the post against 5s. Honestly I see a rich mans Tyler Hansborough.

If we get any pick 3 or lower, our first priority ought to be to trade out and see what kind of talent we can get while offloading salary. If that doesn't happen, perhaps trade back while doing the same, but maybe not yielding the same amount of salary shedding as we may desire.

Zeller a great finisher around the basket in the real sense of the word, not just dunking. He can score from multiple angles, both sides, and uses his body to shield off defenders. That kind of polish is rare in a big man and frankly you don't see it in most 10 year NBA vets. He reminds me of David Lee and I'm not saying that because they are both white. Neither are terribly fast or the best athletes on the floor but they have so many ways of scoring near the basket that they overcome their defenders with their options.

[Going Commando]

I don't want to get into an argument regarding Zeller, again...but I fully believe in a "deep" draft he's a guy that ought to be drafted between 12-18. He has good finishing ability, but I doubt he'll be as efficient against NBA size. He isn't quicker then 4s in this league and his standing reach will probably make it difficult for him to be effective offensively in the post against 5s. Honestly I see a rich mans Tyler Hansborough.

If we get any pick 3 or lower, our first priority ought to be to trade out and see what kind of talent we can get while offloading salary. If that doesn't happen, perhaps trade back while doing the same, but maybe not yielding the same amount of salary shedding as we may desire.

Zeller almost certainly would have been a top ten pick in last year's loaded class. Probably a high pick.

He won't be as efficient in the NBA as he is now simply because he's shooting an absurd 63% from the floor in college. But he's going to be an extremely efficient scorer. He's an excellent athlete with excellent handles, touch, feet, and coordination. He's built to be a scoring machine.

I also think he definitely has the quickness to blow by NBA bigs. He's very athletic. He's not very similar to Hansbrough. Hansbrough has almost no offensive game and is a six hard fouls tough guy and low post defender. Zeller is an offensive specialist. And he's much, much more talented than Hansbrough was.

A lot of people are down on Zeller this year and I think it's because he's a fairly known quantity. He's been kicking ass this year though. I predict by the time the draft roles around Zeller will be near the top of most people's boards. There aren't many serious negatives with him and he's having a great college career. He'd be great value in the 3-5 range.

---------- Post added January-16th-2013 at 02:37 PM ----------

Zeller a great finisher around the basket in the real sense of the word, not just dunking. He can score from multiple angles, both sides, and uses his body to shield off defenders. That kind of polish is rare in a big man and frankly you don't see it in most 10 year NBA vets. He reminds me of David Lee and I'm not saying that because they are both white. Neither are terribly fast or the best athletes on the floor but they have so many ways of scoring near the basket that they overcome their defenders with their options.

Don't underestimate just how quick he is. He runs the floor extremely well and has a very quick first few steps. Check out how quick he looks in this video:

One thing I really like about Zeller is how well he's handled the pressure of being the man on a top 5 team. He sees doubles and triple teams all the time as defense's collapse to stop him but still plays an extremely efficient game. He's got that star quality of drawing the other team's attention and freeing his teammates up with open looks.

[Destino]

I only mean that in the NBA as a 4 he wouldn't be the fastest. I don't hate his game at all. He doesn't rely on a move like many bigs (Seraphin is a great example of a limited offensive tool belt) and you can't teach that kind of variety and instinctual ability. It's rare and it absolutely translates to the NBA.