The Official Washington Basketball Thread: Wizards, Mystics etc

[Rocky21]

Seems like Kanter is the player the Wiz covet. Draft Express and Walter Football both have him going at 4.

I can't shake the feeling we end up with a boy named Jan.

[Going Commando]

Trade the 6 and a future 1st (protected) for the 4. Even though next years draft will be better, I'd move up to get this guy. We can keep our first for next year if we are back in the lottery, or we can figure a way to trade a player and move back into the 1st round next year.

I'd much rather trade 6 and 18 than a future first of any sort. This is a crap class. If it's a future pick then it better be lottery protected at the very least. Even still that's a sketchy trade. I wouldn't be surprised if guys taken 15-20 in next year's class would be guys that could go 6-12 in this year's.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Last minute bluffing.

Exactly.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

It's been awhile since I've had a draft have me so on the edge of my seat. Maybe since Kwame.

(And it's not because I think there are a bunch of great players here. It's because I have no freaking clue what's going to happen.)

[RonArtest15]

Hey fellas...I came across this:

2011 Draft by Similarity

Player Comparisons

by Kevin Pelton

Player comparisons are probably as old as the NBA Draft. As we seek to understand how players will translate to the NBA, using the experience of players with similar skills is helpful. Yet the danger is that subjective comparisons will be colored by irrelevant factors. Our similarity scores take a different approach, using NCAA statistical performance adjusted both for the transition from college to the pros and strength of schedule. Players are compared in 13 categories, including height and weight, to their predecessors within six months of the same age at the time they were drafted. (See here for more details on the process.)

Going by a single player comparison can be dangerous. Most players have a group of comparables that are diverse in terms of their NBA success. Using age at the time the player is drafted limits the pool of possible comparisons, as does the fact that our database goes back only to 2000 and is not complete until 2006 or so. (Before that, it was difficult to track down team statistics to adjust for pace.) If the next Michael Jordan really was in this draft, we wouldn't be able to make the comparison. So don't read more into these comparisons than is really there, especially in cases where the similarity score is low. (They're scored out of 100, with 95 indicating a decent match and 90 generally the cutoff for any real similarity.) Still, these comparison are fun and can be enlightening at times.

Players are ranked by their current spot in DraftExpress' mock draft. A handful of players from overseas, most notably Davis Bertans, are not listed because of insufficient stats.

1 Kyrie Irving Duke PG Derrick Rose 95.7

2 Derrick Williams Arizona PF J.J. Hickson 95.4

3 Brandon Knight Kentucky PG Jerryd Bayless 95.3

4 Enes Kanter Kentucky PF -

Kanter too does not have a comparison because there are no stats by which to go by for him. From this perspective, he's the most mysterious draft prospect since the early entry rule was enacted.

5 Kemba Walker Connecticut PG D.J. Augustin 96.5

6 Jan Vesely Partizan F Andrew Bogut 95.4

It's a VERY interesting read....I only included picks 1-6, but click the link to see the rest.

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=1777

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

How the hell is Vesely compared to Bogut?

[StillUnknown]

How the hell is Vesely compared to Bogut?

I was wondering the same thing

[Warhead36]

Irving won't be as good as Rose. Williams will be better than Hickson.

[Rocky21]

The Sports Guy's new site Grantland posted this feature on the draft today.

6. Washington Wizards

State of the Team: Much of Washington's future will depend on how quickly and fully John Wall develops into a franchise player. When you look beyond last year's no. 1 overall pick, the Wiz have six players under contract and none to be particularly excited about: The league's second-highest-paid player is putting up a staggering 11 points a game (Rashard Lewis), the power forward they locked up through 2015 has a career rebound rate of 13.8 (Andray Blatche), and the best wing-scorer on the roster put up an agonizing 45.6 TS percentage in his rookie season (Jordan Crawford). The lack of a proven or even promising player at almost every position leaves Ernie Grunfeld with the (sort of) luxury of picking the best non-point guard available. Of course, in a draft with (maybe) two potential All-Stars, this isn't the best time to be rebuilding.

Stats:

W-L RECORD: 23-59

eFG% RECORD: 23-59

TOV% RECORD: 41-41

REB% RECORD: 40-42

FTA% RECORD: 31-51

BIGGEST WEAKNESS: SHOOTING

Pick a shooting-rate stat and the Wizards ranked toward the bottom of it. Twenty-ninth in eFG%. Twenty-fifth in field goal percentage. Twenty-eighth in 3-point percentage. Twenty-fifth in free-throw percentage. The worst shooter on the team was unquestionably Jordan Crawford, who used a team-high 26.9 percent of Washington possessions after being acquired on February 23. He took 101 threes and hit just 24, the worst rate in the league for a guy with 100 attempts or more. Crawford finished with a .417 eFG%, the third-worst figure in the league for guys with 1,000 minutes played.

Further development from John Wall and a shock collar to help prevent Josh Howard from taking 3-pointers (30-for-115, a .260 shooting percentage over the past two years) should help.

Front Office Profile: Ernie Grunfeld was responsible for 11 consecutive playoff seasons (no titles) while running the New York Knicks and Milwaukee Bucks. He played in the NBA, too, as an effective role player, and seems to apply lessons learned as an eighth man to his work running teams: find one or two very good players, and get out of the way. In the post-Arenas era, Grunfeld has been prudent with contracts — after Rashard Lewis, no one will make more than $6 million next year — and for now, the plan is to let John Wall be John Wall, while everyone else scores 10 to 12 points a game. They're probably not far from a playoff berth and a first-round exit — all straight out of the Grunfeld playbook.

Click here for more....

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/6685360/view/full/grantland-nba-draft-lottery-preview

Edited June 22, 2011 by Rocky21

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

Ben (OKC)

Wolves more likely to land McGee, Ellis, or Bynum?

Chad Ford (1:12 PM)

Sound like None of the Above. They'd seriously consider McGee, Bynum, Gasol for the No. 2 pick. But they're not getting offered any of them right now

dc (dc)Should the Wizards trade Javale McGee to move up for Williams? Should they trade #18 to move up for Kanter?

Chad Ford (1:21 PM)

If they could do it straight up ... McGee for No. 2? Yes, I'd probably do it. They could grab Williams at 2 and then get a big ... Kanter, Valanciunas, Biyombo at 6. If it costs them the No. 6 as well, I think the cost is too high.

http://espn.go.com/sportsnation/chat/_/id/39015

Edited June 22, 2011 by BRAVEONAWARPATH

[Hersh]

If the Wiz front office believes Williams is going to be a star or a regular all-star but not elite, you trade McGhee and the 6th pick for the No. 2 and grab him. That would give you two potential stars to build around in Wall and Williams. Who here thinks McGhee is going to be an all-star for years? I'm not saying I don't like McGhee and what he brings, but I make the deal to get Williams.

[Destino]

McGee for the #2 if we can get Williams and Kanter/Valanciunas....

Part of me says don't do it... but part of me says all of those guys could likely be a major scoring boost for the team.

[Going Commando]

McGee for the #2 if we can get Williams and Kanter/Valanciunas....

Part of me says don't do it... but part of me says all of those guys could likely be a major scoring boost for the team.

Agreed. I just don't know what I'd do. Williams would have to be pretty good to make me feel good about that trade because JaVale's contract and production are going to be hard to replace.

What if JaVale for #2 straight up would do it and then, like that person asked, 6 and 18 would get us up to 4 to take Kanter. Do you make those deals? Would we be better off just standing pat at 6 and taking Valanciunas there to replace Javale since he's considered a true center?

I like Valanciunas, but I'm seeing people say his ceiling is Tyson Chandler. That's JaVale's ceiling and he's a lot closer to getting there than a 19 year old Euro would be. There's a strong potential of it being a lateral move at best, in which case we might as well just extend JaVale, draft someone at 6, and wait for a SF in 2012. Valanciunas at 23 probably rebounds better than JaVale does though.

[@DCGoldPants]

I would find it hard to justify any trading up this year. The difference between the top 5 players and the next five just isn't that steep to me.

I think they should stand pat, take the best front court player available at both 1st round picks.

[Going Commando]

That also sounds like a good plan Buford, but if the FO has a really strong conviction about Kanter, I wouldn't mind moving up a bit to get him. I like the idea of getting another front court player at 18 since I think most of the decent scorers like Thompson, Burks, Selby, and Hamilton will be gone by then. Someone like Kenneth Faried at 18 sounds good. I have a hard time believing he'll be bad in the NBA. I love Justin Harper at 34 if he's still there, he's a great guy and has nice NBA potential.

[RichmondRedskin88]

That also sounds like a good plan Buford, but if the FO has a really strong conviction about Kanter, I wouldn't mind moving up a bit to get him. I like the idea of getting another front court player at 18 since I think most of the decent scorers like Thompson, Burks, Selby, and Hamilton will be gone by then. Someone like Kenneth Faried at 18 sounds good. I have a hard time believing he'll be bad in the NBA. I love Justin Harper at 34 if he's still there, he's a great guy and has nice NBA potential.

As a senior at VCU I've seen plenty of Harper over the years( of course we whooped the Spiders 7 straight years until they finally won this year). He's got a good inside game. He makes quite a few college 3's but I don't think he'll have that luck in the NBA. Overall he is a solid player though. I think he goes late first round or early second with his potential. Of course he's a senior though and we know how seniors get pushed back. In the NBA draft Poential means more than Proven.

[G.A.C.O.L.B.]

If the Wiz front office believes Williams is going to be a star or a regular all-star but not elite, you trade McGhee and the 6th pick for the No. 2 and grab him. That would give you two potential stars to build around in Wall and Williams. Who here thinks McGhee is going to be an all-star for years? I'm not saying I don't like McGhee and what he brings, but I make the deal to get Williams.

McGee

[Hersh]

McGee

Thanks for the correction. For those that want Kanter, what position does he play for you? If he is a center are you moving McGee to PF? It seems like on one hand people are saying we have our center in McGee but on the other hand want to draft another center in Kanter.

[BRAVEONAWARPATH]

"I would love to go to D.C. It doesn't matter which team, but I would love to go to D.C. It's [an] international city, and Obama loves basketball. I would love to play with John Wall. I think it's a great team."

Enes Kanter today

[RonArtest15]

Thanks for the correction. For those that want Kanter, what position does he play for you? If he is a center are you moving McGee to PF? It seems like on one hand people are saying we have our center in McGee but on the other hand want to draft another center in Kanter.

Kanter can play the 4. Do you really want to see McGee playing PF? LOL.

[Destino]

Do you really want to see McGee playing PF? LOL.

No no no a thousand times no. He can't shoot, his post footwork is nonexistent, and when in trouble he's likely to take a bad shot. McGee can play the 5 and the 5 exclusively.

[skinfan2k]

a euro at the 6 or derrick williams at the 2. McGee is gonna be nothing special and can be quickly replaced if need be. You can replace dumb Basketball IQ.

[StillUnknown]

No no no a thousand times no. He can't shoot, his post footwork is nonexistent, and when in trouble he's likely to take a bad shot. McGee can play the 5 and the 5 exclusively.

you know McGee not so secretly wants to be the backup point guard

[RonArtest15]

a euro at the 6 or derrick williams at the 2. McGee is gonna be nothing special and can be quickly replaced if need be. You can replace dumb Basketball IQ.

You know who else had a "dumb" b-ball IQ...Tyson Chandler. Operative word: "had." I don't know how you can say McGee is going to be nothing special. He's had his ups/downs, but he hasn't even reached the ceiling of his potential. He had a good March/April and hopefully he's putting in good work this summer to carry that into the 2011-12 season. McGee is 23 years old. He's on the verge of making some major cash, so I think we'll see him motivated and potentially turn a corner. Bullets/Wizards have a history of giving up on young talent much too soon. Last thing we want to happen is for McGee to go somewhere else and blossom...and for what? To move up and take Derrick Williams? Not worth it. Let's be real...this team is probably going to be in position to get a top-10 pick in the 2012 NBA draft. It will be SF-rich. No need to mortgage the future especially when you can get good value at the 3 next year. I can live with a potential lineup of:

McGee

Kanter

Lewis

Young

Wall

for a year...next year, BIG changes. And yes...I do have Kanter surpassing Blatche. I've got hope that he'll be moved before the season tip LOL.

[Going Commando]

Thanks for the correction. For those that want Kanter, what position does he play for you? If he is a center are you moving McGee to PF? It seems like on one hand people are saying we have our center in McGee but on the other hand want to draft another center in Kanter.

Kanter is definitely the PF in that dynamic. He's a more natural PF than C IMO. At least offensively. Defensively I don't really know what he's good for other than cherry picking tons of rebounds around the basket.

---------- Post added June-22nd-2011 at 07:11 PM ----------

Kanter moves to center when Javale comes out of the game and Blatche comes in.

---------- Post added June-22nd-2011 at 07:12 PM ----------

a euro at the 6 or derrick williams at the 2. McGee is gonna be nothing special and can be quickly replaced if need be. You can replace dumb Basketball IQ.

Who replaces JaVale and how?