The Evolution of Mexico

[DCSaints_fan]

I agree, I just don't see a merging of our countries as JMS has suggested may happen. You could make almost all the same assertions about Canada, especially economic ties and inter-dependence but in the modern era, how often do countries of this size just merge and become one? I would need more elaboration to see this happening but I don't think it will come to pass. (I wouldn't mind us annexing all of the Baja though ;-D)

Anyway you look at it though, the common man really gets the shaft in Mexico and it's really no surprise that so many decide to come here to live as it presents a noticeably better life. That country's political system is just corrupt from stem to stern. I also believe the immigration issue is much more muted and complex than many think it to be (with negatives to be sure but also benefits to both countries).

Yeah I think the most that will happen is we will become more like the EU with a common currency, relaxed borders, etc., while still retaining national sovereignty. I don't think Mexicans are too anxious to be a part of our foreign entanglements, and we aren't too anxious to take on all of their domestic problems.

[twa]

Bump for the latest atrocity

The End of Mexico?

http://chicagoboyz.net/archives/12317.html

….Last week, at least 30 Mexicans from the town of El Porvenir walked to the border crossing post at Fort Han****, Texas, and asked for political asylum. Ordinarily, their claim would be denied as groundless, and they would be turned back. Instead, they were taken to El Paso, where they expect to have their cases heard.

No one doubts that they have a strong claim. Their town on the Mexican side of the border is under siege by one or more drug cartels battling for control of the key border crossing. According to Mike Doyle, the chief deputy sheriff of Hudspeth County, Texas, one of the cartels has ordered all residents of the town of 10,000 to abandon the city within the next month.

“They came in and put up a sign in the plaza telling everyone to leave or pay with their own blood,” Doyle said. Since then there has been a steady stream of El Porvenir residents seeking safety on the American side of the border, both legally and illegally. Among them are the 30 who are seeking political asylum.

In recent days the situation in the impoverished, dusty border town has grown worse. According to Jose Franco, the superintendent of schools in Fort Han****, the cartels have threatened to execute children in school unless parents pay 5000 pesos in protection money.

And on Wednesday night, according to Doyle, several houses in El Porvenir were set on fire, and there were reports of cars loaded with furniture leaving the town.

I saw this coming. I’m sure that so has anyone else studying insurgency or military history who stopped to give the matter five minutes of serious thought. There’s nothing magical about geographic proximity to the United States that would prevent this tactic, if applied widely and backed by lethal examples, from working. What has been done in the villages of Bosnia or Dar Fur can be done in towns of northern Mexico.

Foresight, apparently, does not include governmental officials though:

Authorities fear that an incident might spark a mass exodus by the residents of El Porvenir that might cause them all to surge across the border at once.

Doyle says there are no plans yet to set up camps for an influx of refugees. “There is just no way to plan for that,” he said. “We are waiting to see what happens. We will use the standard natural disaster procedures if it happens — the Red Cross and housing at the schools, and if it gets worse, the state and the federal government will have to step in.”

I would not bet my mortgage that the Feds would step in – at least not until the situation became an unmitigated, if entirely avoidable, humanitarian disaster. Here’s a hint: Very large numbers of people + a desert + no planning – Food – Shelter – Water = Dead children on CNN. Human physiology is the same on the Rio Grande or in Arizona as in Sudan.

...

Mexico drug gangs turn weapons on army – latimes.com ( Hat tip to Morgan)

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/latinamerica/la-fg-mexico-gunbattles2-2010apr02,0,5886596.story

In coordinated attacks, gunmen in armored cars and equipped with grenade launchers fought army troops this week and attempted to trap some of them in two military bases by cutting off access and blocking highways, a new tactic by Mexico’s organized criminals.In taking such aggressive action, the traffickers have shown that they are not reluctant to challenge the army head-on and that they possess good intelligence on where the army is, how it moves and when it operates.

[Spartacus87]

It is a bold prediction. But it's pretty supportable.

• 80% of Mexico's economy is already depenant upon the US.
  
• 20% of their workforce, already makes it home in the US, and still vote in Mexican elections.
  
• After the next amnesty bill which both parties are in favor of passing, that number could double
  
• John McCain's amnesty package which recieved broad support from the left and the right targeted Mexico's small middle class with specialized visa's and incentives for legal immigration.
  

We aren't going to absorb Mexico in a war. When a significant majority of mexican's get their living from us, and a huge minority already works here; then they will vote favorable for unification with the US... It's in the works already.

It makes a lot of sense for both sides, with notable problem issues.

So how does that make sense for the United States?

We have enough issues already with social security draining, the new health care reform and how that will apply and work out over the next decade, and our national debt, among other areas of concern.

And then we would absorb a developing country with its hands full in an all out drug war?

I admittedly don't know very much about the details of all of this, but right now I don't see how that's a possible situation in the next 30 years.

[twa]

So how does that make sense for the United States?

We could of course annex the northern third of it,it would make for a shorter border fence;)

Name it Old Mexico

[boofMcboof]

We should at least annex Baja California and secure our rights to some tasty fish tacos and nices beaches.

[JMS]

The last year has seen a dramatic war on drug cartels in Mexico. I don't wanna sound rude... but why is Mexico suddenly interested in cleaning up the trash in that country?

I guess what I'm primarily interested in is... What is their long-term plan for the country? What is their domestic agenda?

Have any of you been following the changes going on in Mexico?

(1) I don't think "cleaning up" is the right term to use with regards to the drug wars going on in Mexico. I think "consolidating" is a better term. It's a struggle for who will control the lucrative Mexican Meth trade.

(2) I don't think Mexico has a long term plan. We have a long term plan, but the Mecian's are thinking more tactical, not strategic.

(3) Our long term plan is to continue to suck an ever increasing number of their workers into our economy, Accelerate the transfer of Mexico's middle class by creating an amnesty bill targeted at their middle class. This is going to result in an ever growing number of dual citizens who vote in both American and Mexican elections. The Mexican focused voter will contunue to decline econonomically and as a percentage of the electorate. The Mexican Americans will continue to accelerate economically and politically. Eventually they will vote to enter the union. I think it's pretty much a done deal.

(4) We have just under half of Mexico's work force in the United States today. Some 20 million Mexicans. After the next amnesty bill, that number will only grow. Money sent back to Mexico from the United States is already their largest source of foreign currency other than Oil sales ( Mexico sells all their oil to the US too).... Nafta has only made Mexico more dependant upon us.

(5) As the boarders continue to open, and the economies continue to be mixed; Ultimately Mexico will become a collection of new states in the Union of the United States. Good for us, Good for them. Next 40-60 years, it will happen.

All you have to do is ask yourself what happens when you mix the 14.5 Trillion dollar United States Economy with the 1.5 Trillion dollar Mexican economy? You get a 16 Trillion dollar United States Economy. Throw in a few rebel uprisings, Drug wars, and Natural disasters. Along with some largely incompetent Mexican leadership. The merger will happen. The Mexican people will demand it.

[JMS]

It makes no sense for the U.S.

It makes a lot of sense for the United States. China and India will be the #1 and #2 economys in the world in 2050 based upon their population alone. Currently the United States is the only first world country who's population is not shrinking. Adding Mexico not only increases our population but keeps our population curve moving in the right direction. Both good things.

It also makes a lot of sense because Mexico is chalk full of untapped natural resources. All of which we currently have locked up due to treaties, but which including Mexico would be an even stronger hold.

Lastly, We are as dependant upon Mexico as they are upon us. That will be even more so in the future. Formalizing our relationship with Mexico as part of an incorporation is the best way to ensure that relationship continues and grows into the furture.

[JMS]

How does that compare with Canada?(relatively speaking per capita)

I don't see it happening,though you will certainly see more Hispanic influence throughout the US(simple numbers game)

The Mexican people would never go for it,never underestimate machismo there.

Even if a total meltdown occurs there a puppet govt would be more tolerable to them.

Canada is the second largest country in the world geographically. But it is even a much smaller country population wise than Mexico or the United States. Canada is about 10% of the size of the United States, and 80% of their population lives within 100 miles of the boarder with the United States.

The problem issue with regard to unificaiton with Canada is one really of necessity. Such a unification would need to work for both countries. I don't think it would work for Canada's interests. Canada's economy today is as strong or stronger than ours. Her infrastructure is likewise as good or better than ours. They already have access to our markets, the biggest chip we have to offer. And immigration is already pretty open and stable with citizens of each country moving back and forth freely.

Likewise I don't think America would get all that much. We already have the rights (first purchase) to Canada's raw materials and resources as part of NAFTA. Canada doesn't have any real existential security concerns we could help them with. Any military equipment Canada wants from us, she already has the ability to purchase from us as one of our closest allies.

I think the Mexican, US merger just makes more sense from the perspective of both parties.

[Ellis]

Canada is lucky in that "less" is easier to manage. The smaller population makes it much easier to function as a whole efficiently.

[JMS]

I agree, I just don't see a merging of our countries as JMS has suggested may happen. You could make almost all the same assertions about Canada, especially economic ties and inter-dependence but in the modern era, how often do countries of this size just merge and become one? I would need more elaboration to see this happening but I don't think it will come to pass. (I wouldn't mind us annexing all of the Baja though ;-D)

You really couldn't. CNN published a poll claiming 90% of Mexican's favored immigrating the United States even if it meant breaking US Laws. You don't see that in Candada.

Like I was saying, Not only does the United States already have a sizeable number of Mexican's workforce. But for the last ten years those Mexican citizens living legally and illegally in the United States could vote in Mexican elections without leaving the United States. That number is just going to grow and grow.

Anyway you look at it though, the common man really gets the shaft in Mexico and it's really no surprise that so many decide to come here to live as it presents a noticeably better life.

Exactly right. Which is why eventually they will merge with us. Because eventually not only will most of their economy be based upon our economy as it is today, but eventually most of the folks who consider themselves Mexicans will be living hear legally and still voting in Mexico's elections. They simple won't be ameanable to business as usual under Mexico's cartells.

That country's political system is just corrupt from stem to stern. I also believe the immigration issue is much more muted and complex than many think it to be (with negatives to be sure but also benefits to both countries).

I don't think the corruption or drug wars would be a big impediment towards unification. I do think both are destabalizing Mexico, making unificaiton more likely; not less likely.

[JMS]

Canada is lucky in that "less" is easier to manage. The smaller population makes it much easier to function as a whole efficiently.

Canada is "lucky" that it's blessed with the second largest geographic sized country on earth. The second largest proven oil reserves on earth. As well as a very well educated population with few natural security concerns....

Those are all great things to have, but I think Canda is also a pretty well run country. They are a pretty moderate people.

[twa]

Some might find this interesting

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/worldnews/article-1302780/Blog-del-Narco-Computer-student-voice-Mexican-drug-war.html

A young computer student has become the voice of one of the most violent drug wars in the world.

The anonymous twenty-something blogger is risking his own life every day as he defies a culture of fear to post chilling pictures and videos of the ongoing battle between Mexico's drug cartels and law enforcement.

Blog del Narco has become an internet sensation - and some of the horror it displays makes the 2002 film City of God, charting the drug war on the streets of Brazil's Rio de Janeiro, look like a Disney film.

Firefight in Mexico near border with Brownsville, Texas

7poAq824ryo

[thebluefood]

You have to respect a person that's willing to defy fear in order to do something he/she believes will help their community/nation.

I just hope those cartels don't find his IP address.

[Thanos]

Well wasn't the US technically part of Mexico way back when?

If you look at the broader picture Mexico is where Columbia was a decade ago and they've turned the tide somewhat is battling the cartels.

[The 12th Commandment]

Don't mean to just contradict you outright but Colombia and Mexico have pretty different situations. Colombia is leftist rebels, who wanted a different government, causing the trouble with money supplied by cocaine operations they let operate. Mexico is purely drugas. No politics other than raw power involved.

Also, I live 40 miles from Juarez and I don't hear anything about getting it under control. Quite the contrary.

[twa]

Well Mexico also has it's separatists(and the Northern part has always been rather distanced ), but you are right it is mainly drugs and gonna get worse

[The 12th Commandment]

Well Mexico also has it's separatists(and the Northern part has always been rather distanced ), but you are right it is mainly drugs and gonna get worse

Oh, I bet they long for the day when Chiapas and what's his name (Marcos) were the only major thorn in their side.

[twa]

Speaking of getting worse(Monterrey ain't no backwater town)

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/38707292/ns/world_news-americas/

In a violent show of force, suspected Mexican drug gang members cut off 13 major roads in Monterrey, Mexico, on Saturday, dragging motorists out of their vehicles to use as blockades against police.

Four people were killed in an earlier shootout, authorities in Mexico said. Among the dead was an alleged leader of Los Zetas, one of Mexico's most powerful and violent drug cartel, BBC News reported.

Soldiers from the Mexican Army clashed with armed assailants inside two armored vehicles, according to Blog del Narco, Mexico's go-to Web site on information on the country's drug war.

[Destino]

Name it Old Mexico

I'd go with South Canada.

[twa]

http://www.chron.com/disp/story.mpl/world/7171935.html

Survivor of Mexico slaughter details immigrants' final moments

MEXICO CITY — The one known survivor of a massacre on a Mexico ranch 85 miles south of Brownsville trudged into a Navy checkpoint Monday -- a bullet wound in his neck -- with a tale almost too gruesome even for a country locked in the throes of a vicious and bloody drug war.

He and fellow migrants from Central and South America, he told authorities, were headed to the Texas border with the hope of making it into the United States. Instead, everyone had been shot dead, slaughtered by gangsters even as they pleaded for their lives.

Mexican Marines discovered the 72 bodies - 58 men and 14 women - on Tuesday afternoon after a skirmish with gangsters outside the town of San Fernando. The migrants were massacred by the ruthless Zetas gang, Mexican officials said Wednesday.

The survivor, an Ecuadorean, also was shot but managed to escape, said Adm. Jose Luis Vergara, a naval spokesman.

Mexican officials did not explain at a Wednesday press conference why it took so long to discover the bodies or release the information. Nor did they explain why there is still confusion about victims' identities, how they were killed or how long they have been dead.

..

Explosion of violence

Gangland violence has exploded this year across northeastern Mexico - an area bordered by the Rio Grande and the cities of Monterrey and Tampico - as the Zetas have gone to war with former allies in the so-called Gulf Cartel and other bands.

At least 600 people have been killed in the fighting in recent months, according to some media tallies. An untold number have simply disappeared, sometimes turning up in mass graves.

[88Comrade2000]

There is none.

Mexico is about to fail as a nation state. This is our #1 national security issue.

[Hubbs]

There is none.

Mexico is about to fail as a nation state. This is our #1 national security issue.

I've honestly wondered about that. Exactly how much of the Mexican military is actually fighting the cartels right now?

[deejaydana]

I've honestly wondered about that. Exactly how much of the Mexican military is actually fighting the cartels right now?

Parts of the Mexican military and the cartels are indistinguishable. I don't see this changing any time soon. As far as it failing as a nation, well, that's debatable in my mind because it's gotten by for so long as an essentially corrupted body politic. You have to feel for the common man down there though and you certainly can't question their desire to emigrate here.

[rocazares]

I've honestly wondered about that. Exactly how much of the Mexican military is actually fighting the cartels right now?

No one, our s***ty army loss every fight versus the drug lords, our national security forces are lame, we suck big time!!!

I wonder what the f*** will do the corrupt ravenous bad blood Calderon's goverment??

The violence is getting worse and worse everyday, the scum can kill you only for 1 dollar (10 pesos).

Last week some SOB's kill a young lady because she only was carrying 10 pesos. A shot in the head.

Last tuesday a partner from the office get shot in the head because those ****s want to steal his GF's blackberry.

And with these kind of tragic stories I can go all night long.

Maybe this not related directly with war on drugs but at the end it is.

The crime is out of control; a few months ago I felt unsafe for the increase of robberies, they shot you at the arms or legs (I don't care about my cell phone is the only thing of interest I carry on the street), now everyone gets a shot in the head. The international news don't show this issue. I'm worry for my family's security and myself. I'm scared.

The massacre against 72 immigrant its a shame and the clear evidence this country will fall at the feet of the crime, is just matter of months.

[visionary]

The massacre against 72 immigrant its a shame and the clear evidence this country will fall at the feet of the crime, is just matter of months.

I saw on CNN that the investigators on that case have disappeared.