The Evolution of Mexico

[Ellis]

The last year has seen a dramatic war on drug cartels in Mexico. I don't wanna sound rude... but why is Mexico suddenly interested in cleaning up the trash in that country?

I guess what I'm primarily interested in is... What is their long-term plan for the country? What is their domestic agenda?

Have any of you been following the changes going on in Mexico?

[Hubbs]

I haven't spent an enormous amount of time reading up on it, but I got the sense that it was more that the cartels were getting bolder than the government cracking down. (And given the stories I've heard about the cartels winning, I use the term "cracking down" loosely.)

[twa]

We bumped funding,plus there is a war between drug lords who are better armed than ever.

They have tremendous influence and power and are expanding here with the violence escalating all the time.

And we pay both sides:chair:

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M%C3%A9rida_Initiative

The U.S. Congress has now authorized $1.6 USD billion for the three-year initiative. The U.S. Congress approved $465 million in the first year, which includes $400 million for Mexico and $65 million for Central America, the Dominican Republic, and Haiti. For the second year, Congress approved $300 million for Mexico and $110 million for Central America, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. A FY09 supplemental appropriation is providing an additional $420 million for Mexico; and $450 million for Mexico and $100 million for Central America has been requested for FY10.[19]

Only about $204 million of that, however, will be earmarked for the Mexican military for the purchase of eight used transport helicopters and two small surveillance aircraft. No weapons are included in the plan.[20][21] The bill requires that $73.5 million of the $400 million for Mexico must be used for judicial reform, institution-building, human rights and rule-of-law issues. The bill specifies that 15% of the funds will be dependent on Mexico making headway in four areas relating to human-rights issues, and on which the U.S. Secretary of State will have to report periodically to Congress.[22][23]

An additional $65 million was granted for the Central American countries (Belize, Costa Rica, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Nicaragua and Panama); the House also included Haiti and the Dominican Republic in this bill for Central America, which is a comprehensive public security package that seeks to tackle citizen insecurity in Central America by more effectively addressing criminal gangs, improving information sharing between countries, modernizing and professionalizing the police forces, expanding maritime interdiction capabilities, and reforming the judicial sector in order to restore and strengthen citizens’ confidence in those institutions.[24]

[AdamB]

I haven't spent an enormous amount of time reading up on it, but I got the sense that it was more that the cartels were getting bolder than the government cracking down. (And given the stories I've heard about the cartels winning, I use the term "cracking down" loosely.)

There is basically two different events that are occuring at the same time which is pushing the violence up.

First, you have several cartels that are fighting to take or establish plazas (drug corridors) in Chihuahua, primarily the Gulf and Sinaloa Cartels, with the Juarez Cartel trying to maintain control. You also having the Felix Tijuana Cartel trying to hold off Sinaloa, and several smaller cartels (such as the Zetas)feeding off the edges. You then have to add in all of the individual gangs aligned with these cartels (such as the Barrio Aztecas based out of El Paso) fighting with each other.

Second, one of President Calderón's big promises coming into office was that he was going to crackdown on corruption and the drug trade, and actually seems to be trying to following through on the promise. So, in some areas, you have a three-way war going on - the military/fed vs. the cartels while the cartels are fighting each other, with assorted wild cards getting thrown into the mix (corrupt police vs. military, gangs vs. gangs, etc) with innocent bystanders getting stuck in the middle.

This is obviously a very simplified, and amateur, estimation of what is going on. I had to do a paper on the violence this past summer for a class (Border Politics), plus those living in this area cannot help but follow what is going on, at least in Juarez. El Paso and Juarez are so inter-connected that it is not just faces on a tv screen or NG Special, but friends, classmates, and for many here, family who are getting caught in the crosshairs. This past summer, an 11 year old girl visitng family in Juarez was killed as she and her cousin were buying hamburgers at a sidewalk stand - she attended the school where I am currently doing my internship.

[The 12th Commandment]

It's all on the border in the center of the country. The coasts are safe for the most part because one cartel or the other own them without much question. It's a replay of Chicago during prohibition. There's so much money involved that the cartels will do anything and everything to get or maintain control over the border towns and the associated smuggling routes. The only thing that's going to help is making these drugs legal, which won't happen except marijuana. Bad situation and just like El Paso and Juarez are joined at the hip, on a different scale the US and Mexico are too. It is ridiculous that we're paying both sides.

To try and answer the OP, IMO they're too concerned with today to expend much effort on tomorrow.

[twa]

Unless you are willing to legalize it all there will be little effect on the violence.(besides winning the WOD,which ain't happening)

It is a sad situation

[Hubbs]

Unless you are willing to legalize it all there will be little effect on the violence.(besides winning the WOD,which ain't happening)

It is a sad situation

But... but...

[twa]

States Of Siege

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=516176

Drug lords shocked Mexico on Tuesday by massacring the family of a marine killed in a raid. The same day, Colombia reeled from the killing of a governor. Both were hits on the state. But the enemy hasn't won.

Cartels left no doubt about their al-Qaida-like depravity when a pack of them burst into the home of the grieving mother of a Mexican hero who died in Dec. 16's raid on kingpin Arturo Beltran Leyva.

Hours after 30-year-old Ensign Melquisedet Angulo's funeral, hit men linked to the Los Zetas faction of Beltran Leyva's cartel blew the mother's front door off and machine-gunned the dead man's family, killing four, including Angulo's mother.

...

The fallen Mexican serviceman wasn't just any casualty from the drug war, many of whose dead do have links to the drug trade. What made him stand out was that he had become a national hero and a symbol of the uncorrupted side of Mexico.

He had been honored for his sacrifice by President Felipe Calderon. Angulo's death and the massacre of his family sent a chilling message to idealistic young Mexicans to think twice before enlisting in the military to fight cartels.

Enjoy the fruits of your pastime America?

.

[AdamB]

El Paso Times: Coffins bring sorrow home to Juarenses

Just thought I would post this article since the story does not seem to be talked about much on the news outside of this area. Since the violence in Mexico has been talked about some on the boards already, I just added it to this thread instead of making a new one.

Over the weekend 16 people, 11 under the age of 20, were gunned down at a birthday party in Juarez with 4 more in critical condition. The man suspected of leading the attack, killed yesterday in a shootout with police, was from El Paso.

The death toll in Juarez since Janurary 2008 has passed the 4,400 mark. 18 people were killed on Janurary 10 including a man whose body was cut up and left in a intersection. Another man was stabbed to death recently in a the church that he was the caretaker of with numerous reports of curches being shook down for "protection" money.

I am just always surprised how these stories go un-reported by major media outlets (or barely reported), but then these stories really hit close to home for me...literally....as in 20 miles from my front door.

[hkHog]

The ruling class in Mexico is just concerned with retaining their power so that they can continue to siphon as much money as possible at the expense of any real advances. The drug cartels started getting too arrogant and aggressive and were messing up their fat cat lifestyles by causing unrest. That is why they are cracking down now.

[JMS]

The last year has seen a dramatic war on drug cartels in Mexico. I don't wanna sound rude... but why is Mexico suddenly interested in cleaning up the trash in that country?

Cleaning up? Some people would call it consolidating... Also the United States has invested hundreds of millions of dollars into that fiasco. It in and of itself represents a kind of growth industry for Mexico.

I guess what I'm primarily interested in is... What is their long-term plan for the country? What is their domestic agenda?

Mexico will become part of the United States in the next 3-4 decades. We already have about 20% of their workforce in this country. After the Ronald Reagan amnesty bill mexican immigration increased by a factor of 4. After the next amnesty bill it will again increase significantly.

The money sent back to Mexico from folks working in the US, represents the majority of their economy. The Folks here now vote from the United States and are very influecial in Mexican elections.

[Major Harris]

Mexico will become part of the United States in the next 3-4 decades.

but, i thought we were just going to saw off texas and let it and everything south float away?

edit: in all seriousness, that's a bold prediction. not saying you're right or wrong, i'm sure you follow it more closely than i do.

[Destino]

Drug Cartels are getting too aggressive and the looking away and pretending it's not happening is becoming harder to do. Personally I think the fight needs to be escalated. The battle lines need to be drawn and the nation needs to go to war before it becomes another Columbia, which has to deal with a cartel with power that rivals the nations military (and gets aid from socialist neighbors).

Some drugs need to be legalized the rest banned and the cartels pushing them need to be slaughtered relentlessly. They need to be hunted down like animals no different than terrorists in the middle east. Dead or alive. It's time the America's realized that drug cartels in latin america and the gangs that operate as their sales staff in the US ARE TERRORISTS. They have never hesitated in take action for political reason (the definition of terrorism) in latin america and in the US they corrupt and infest neighborhoods terrorizing and victimizing it's citizenry.

[FanboyOf91]

The money sent back to Mexico from folks working in the US, represents the majority of their economy.

False. Total foreign remittances for 2009 totaled $21.2 billion. Mexico's 2009 GDP was probably $866 billion.

[The 12th Commandment]

I am just always surprised how these stories go un-reported by major media outlets (or barely reported), but then these stories really hit close to home for me...literally....as in 20 miles from my front door.

It's beyond disturbing, I never would have believed it if you told me what Juarez would become 20 years ago.

Beheadings and public hangings from bridges as well as other really nasty torture and mutilation have become fairly common. They go after the journalists, public officials religious community, charities...whatever, anyone who criticizes or tries to bring attention to the situation for the regular people caught in the cross fire. It's terrorism all right.

[AdamB]

Drug Cartels are getting too aggressive and the looking away and pretending it's not happening is becoming harder to do. Personally I think the fight needs to be escalated. The battle lines need to be drawn and the nation needs to go to war before it becomes another Columbia, which has to deal with a cartel with power that rivals the nations military (and gets aid from socialist neighbors).

Well, right now they have about 6,200 soldiers and 1,800 federals on the ground in Juarez with another 2,000 federals announced. Part of the problem, least in Juarez where most of the violence is centered, is that the police force was effectively dis-armed two years ago due to corruption. They are trying to rebuild it (and re-arm), but it's a slow process - they want to make sure they people they are hiring are not already part of the problems, plus those who are unlikely to be corrupted are too damn scared to join since they would be prime targets. They had a good chief in place, but he quit after his top two assistants were murdered outside their homes. Edit: he quit not just because of the two assasinations, but also because the cartels were threatening to kill 10 police officers per day until he did so, and had already shown it was not an idle threat.

The cartels are already as well armed as the most of the law enforcement. Automatic weapons, explosives, hand grenades, etc. have all been used in attacks in the city. One of the police officials mentioned above was taken out with a Barrett .50. One of the newer cartels, whose name escapes me at the moment but operates on the east coast of Mexico, is made up of ex-mercenaries with military grade equipment.

And while they may not be receiving funding from other countries (they may be, not sure), they really do not need it - customers in the U.S. are providing them with plenty of cash, plus there is evidence that some of the maquiladoras are also working with the cartels. A manager at one in Juarez was killed after a drug bust found drugs mixed in with a shipment of products from the plant, which is owned by Siemens. I should mention that I do not think that companies like Siemens, Ford, etc. that own factories in Mexico are somehow working with the cartels, but I do believe some of the money still ends up in cartel pockets.

[JMS]

edit: in all seriousness, that's a bold prediction. not saying you're right or wrong, i'm sure you follow it more closely than i do.

It is a bold prediction. But it's pretty supportable.

• 80% of Mexico's economy is already depenant upon the US.
  
• 20% of their workforce, already makes it home in the US, and still vote in Mexican elections.
  
• After the next amnesty bill which both parties are in favor of passing, that number could double
  
• John McCain's amnesty package which recieved broad support from the left and the right targeted Mexico's small middle class with specialized visa's and incentives for legal immigration.
  

We aren't going to absorb Mexico in a war. When a significant majority of mexican's get their living from us, and a huge minority already works here; then they will vote favorable for unification with the US... It's in the works already.

It makes a lot of sense for both sides, with notable problem issues.

[Chopper Dave]

Ending the federal prohibition of marijuana would go a long, long way. Pot is the cartels' bread and butter, and the money and connections generated by it allows them to traffic in cocaine, heroin, and meth. Take away the pot trade, or at least most of its profitability, and you severely curtail their ability to do business.

[JMS]

False. Total foreign remittances for 2009 totaled $21.2 billion. Mexico's 2009 GDP was probably $866 billion.

You are right. I was over simplifying... here is a more accurate involved description of the Mexican growing dependance on the United States.

• Mexico's second largest source of foreign curency is remittances from the United States. first largest is oil.
  

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/27/world/main6148649.shtml

• "Mexico is highly dependent on exports to the U.S., which represent more than a quarter of the country's GDP."
  

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/ei/bgn/35749.htm

• Mexico's labor force is 46 million out of a population of 110 million. Estimates for Illegal Mexican workers in the United States range between 10-20 million people. But look like closer to 20 million.
  

http://ohmygov.com/blogs/general_news/archive/2008/04/10/number-of-illigral-immigrants-in-u-s-may-be-closer-to-20-million.aspx

• In 2006 mexican expatriots living in the US could vote in Mexican elections without leaving United States soil. Expatriots in the United States represents a powerful and growing voting block in domestic Mexican elections.
  

http://www.encyclopedia.com/doc/1G1-137058051.html

• In the 1980's after Ronald Reagan's first amnesty package for illegal immigrants, illegal immigration quadroupled.... Reagan's illegal problem was 1/4th of what we face today..... Today both parties republican and democrates officially favor amnesty packages which would grant illegal immigrants citizenship.
  

[The 12th Commandment]

I've been continually amazed...

http://www.lcsun-news.com/las_cruces-news/ci_14333970

"JUAREZ - Mexico's powerful drug cartels have been operating drug rehabilitation clinics, turning some into bloody killing fields and forcing recovering addicts into their ranks of hit men and smugglers. At least two of the country's six major drug cartels have used treatment facilities to further their trade, top Mexican law enforcement officials told The Associated Press in exclusive interviews. One group even opened its own centers where they brainwashed addicts during rehabilitation, offering them an ultimatum once they kicked their habits: work for us or we'll kill you.

Here, just across the border from El Paso, Texas, 41 people have been killed in massacres at rehab clinics over the past year and a half - massacres prompted not only by recruitment efforts within the clinics, but also by more common reasons like failure to pay for drugs or betrayal of a dealer.

"The rehabilitation centers are an extension of the battlefield," said Edgardo Buscaglia, a leading Mexican drug expert. "There are no refuges anymore." The phenomenon highlights the government's failure to address the social ills that have grown from Mexico's burgeoning drug trade, he said. While the government has gone after the cartels using the police and military, they have done little to regulate private treatment facilities that have proliferated as cocaine use doubled nationwide over the last six years."

-continued at link

[DeanCollins]

States Of Siege

http://www.investors.com/NewsAndAnalysis/Article.aspx?id=516176

Drug lords shocked Mexico on Tuesday by massacring the family of a marine killed in a raid. The same day, Colombia reeled from the killing of a governor. Both were hits on the state. But the enemy hasn't won.

Cartels left no doubt about their al-Qaida-like depravity when a pack of them burst into the home of the grieving mother of a Mexican hero who died in Dec. 16's raid on kingpin Arturo Beltran Leyva.

Hours after 30-year-old Ensign Melquisedet Angulo's funeral, hit men linked to the Los Zetas faction of Beltran Leyva's cartel blew the mother's front door off and machine-gunned the dead man's family, killing four, including Angulo's mother.

...

The fallen Mexican serviceman wasn't just any casualty from the drug war, many of whose dead do have links to the drug trade. What made him stand out was that he had become a national hero and a symbol of the uncorrupted side of Mexico.

He had been honored for his sacrifice by President Felipe Calderon. Angulo's death and the massacre of his family sent a chilling message to idealistic young Mexicans to think twice before enlisting in the military to fight cartels.

Enjoy the fruits of your pastime America?

.

this is what should be done to suicide bomber's families :evilg:

[BeerMuscles]

It makes a lot of sense for both sides, with notable problem issues.

It makes no sense for the U.S.

[twa]

It is a bold prediction. But it's pretty supportable.

• 80% of Mexico's economy is already depenant upon the US.
  
• 20% of their workforce, already makes it home in the US, and still vote in Mexican elections.
  
• After the next amnesty bill which both parties are in favor of passing, that number could double
  
• John McCain's amnesty package which recieved broad support from the left and the right targeted Mexico's small middle class with specialized visa's and incentives for legal immigration.
  

We aren't going to absorb Mexico in a war. When a significant majority of mexican's get their living from us, and a huge minority already works here; then they will vote favorable for unification with the US... It's in the works already.

It makes a lot of sense for both sides, with notable problem issues.

How does that compare with Canada?(relatively speaking per capita)

I don't see it happening,though you will certainly see more Hispanic influence throughout the US(simple numbers game)

The Mexican people would never go for it,never underestimate machismo there.

Even if a total meltdown occurs there a puppet govt would be more tolerable to them.

[DCsportsfan53]

Unless you are willing to legalize it all there will be little effect on the violence.(besides winning the WOD,which ain't happening)

It is a sad situation

I just don't understand it, all the money spent, all the damage done around the world by the war on the drugs. So many people dead or in jail, so many criminals funded and armed off the sale of drugs, so much consistent failure year after year after year......and STILL, after everything that's happened in the WOD, after all this time and abject failure, with the example of alcohol prohibition so plain to see we still can't even have a reasonable discussion as a nation about whether or not legalization should even be considered. I mean, really? How could anything be much worse than the situation the WOD has put us into? It blows my mind. So many people use them, can we really not even have the conversation? Are we that determined to continue to insist that any and all recreational drug use is bad and evil, no matter what the cost? Was the WOD brainwashing really that successful?

[deejaydana]

How does that compare with Canada?(relatively speaking per capita)

I don't see it happening,though you will certainly see more Hispanic influence throughout the US(simple numbers game)

The Mexican people would never go for it,never underestimate machismo there.

Even if a total meltdown occurs there a puppet govt would be more tolerable to them.

I agree, I just don't see a merging of our countries as JMS has suggested may happen. You could make almost all the same assertions about Canada, especially economic ties and inter-dependence but in the modern era, how often do countries of this size just merge and become one? I would need more elaboration to see this happening but I don't think it will come to pass. (I wouldn't mind us annexing all of the Baja though ;-D)

Anyway you look at it though, the common man really gets the shaft in Mexico and it's really no surprise that so many decide to come here to live as it presents a noticeably better life. That country's political system is just corrupt from stem to stern. I also believe the immigration issue is much more muted and complex than many think it to be (with negatives to be sure but also benefits to both countries).