The State of the Redskins - a comprehensive look at our immediate future

[aussieskin]

excellent post and i tend to agree with everything you mentioned even keeping JC for another season, this is a standard we should all aspire to with our posts

[herb mul-key]

what the players will HATE is having to learn a new scheme on offense or defense...i don't like shanny...i don't think players do either? we need a sean payton type..and a gw type...maybe ds can get them to come over...

[darrelgreenie]

Great thread, nice work.

What we can expect from this offseason and beyond:

Dan Snyder WILL fire Vinny Cerrato - there will be wholesale change

I don't think Danny will fire Vinny.

I think Vinny's biggest problem as a GM is that we don't know how much influence Synder has over him.

Imo Vinny would be a decent personnel guy if he wasn't Synder's stooge.

When Synder tells Vinny to get a player Vinny gets that player.

I think Vinny will return to role of a player personnel guy, and i think he can do a good job when working at the behest of someone that has a clue.

Someone like Mike Shanahan.

We WILL draft a quarterback in the first round

I believe that we will draft a quarterback with our 1st overall pick. We can argue whether or not this is the best move, but I believe that this is a near-certainty.

I don't think we should draft a QB either, but knowing Synder and reading the writing on the wall i agree that we'll draft a QB next year.

Snyder wanted a franchise quarterback last year and while Campbell has proven that he is serviceable and even 'good' at times, he hasn't shown anyone that he's capable of taking this team on his back and leading him to the promised land (let alone the playoffs).

Neglecting the OL and changing schemes isn't the way to make a franchise QB. Jason was supposed to take the next step as a QB under Zorn's guidance; but the OL fell apart during this same period of time.

How can a QB take the next step with a rookie HC/playcaller installing a new system with a coaching staff they inherit from a different system with an OL on the rapid decline?

There's no position that energizes a fanbase more than a new promising quarterback.

Or distracts them from the fact the OL is really the problem.

Jason Campbell hasn't proven himself to be "the answer" in his fifth year - we cannot/will not pass up the opportunity to find another "answer" this year. Some might say that we should build the lines in this draft and find our quarterback next year - quite simply, we may not be in the position to do so, especially if we manage an 8-8 record or better. We draft the quarterback and sit him until he is ready and until his supporting cast is ready as well.

Wether or not Jason has proved that he isn't the answer why can't Colt be the next Redskins QB? He's further along then any QB we draft.

Colt has 2 training camps, 2 preseason and 1 season learning the NFL from the bench. Imo that puts Colt closer to being able to take the reigns then any QB we draft.

On why we should KEEP Jason Campbell for next year:

Campbell has proven that he can perform at a mediocre level with a piss-poor offensive line. His toughness cannot be questioned and he can take hits as well as any quarterback in the league. Furthermore, he has proven to be an effective passer despite the decrepit line in front of him.

(As of Week 11: )

His completion percentage is 66.0% - 8th in the league. (Above notables Jay Cutler, Donovan McNabb, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Tony Romo sits to pee, Matt Ran, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel, etc.)

His average yards per play is 7.3 - 12th in the league. (Above notables Kurt Warner, Carson Palmer, Kyle Orton, Jay Cutler, Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco, Matt Cassel)

His passes for 1st down percentage is a 38.8% - a whopping 6th best in the league. (Above notables Tom Brady, Matt Schaub, Aaron Rodgers, Carson Palmer, Eli Manning, Donovan McNabb, Tony Romo sits to pee, etc.)

Now, for those that argue that Campbell is nothing more than a backup - it is hard to argue with these stats and say that he can't do a respectable job. It can be assumed that if he had a decent offensive line and anything but a line full of retreads and backups, his overall numbers would improve: total yards, touchdowns, and invariably quarterback rating. It should be noted that Campbell has only 29.1 pass attempts per game, 24th in the league (below notables Alex Smith, David Garrard, and even Kerry Collins). With more opportunities to pass, he would naturally have more yards and likely, more touchdowns. Of course, he doesn't have a running game to lean on or even move the chains consistently - this, we will get to in a bit.

Campbell can continue to take licks next year with an offensive line that will, in all likelihood, continue to break down but will almost definitely be better. He is a true professional - the contrast in personality and professionalism is clear with someone like the alienating Jay Cutler. He can teach the franchise rookie the ropes - what it means to be a hard study, how to be a true professional. These are two of Campbell's better qualities, essentials for any quarterback to succeed (see, Jamarcus Russel). There isn't a veteran free agent available that is even remotely close to an upgrade over Campbell (list of planned free agents: http://www.extremeskins.com/showthread.php?t=308228). Kyle Orton will be franchised or re-signed. I've read that people want a Marc Bulger or a Jake Delhomme - these people need to start watching more football and read more. Campbell is a far better quarterback and has more potential than either, and they both have been failing despite top running games. They have been more or less dreadful this year and in recent years past.

Another quick point - Campbell has clearly improved each year as a starter. This is obvious through a quick glance at his statistics. But if you can't see this by watching the games on the field, you must be blind or too biased to notice. His completion percent is 3.7% higher than last year, even accounting for his hot streak and our 6-2 start. And his yards per attempt is at 7.3, .9 yards per play higher than last year. Yes, he has more interceptions, but this is a result of more chances taken, a decrepit line that is even worse at blocking than in 08, and more tipped and dropped passes (the Dallas int and the Fred Davis int are the first two that immediately come to mind). Overall, he's been a more effective quarterback in much more trying circumstances.

It's funny you assess JC situation pretty much the exact way that i do except you still think that JC can't be the Redskins QB.

If JC is brought back next year and the OL improves i think everyone will view JC in a different light.

To summarize: We will draft a quarterback. He will be the future of our franchise. However, Campbell is decent enough to not discard. He will be better than any rookie next year (you can compare Campbell's numbers this year to the #1 and #5 picks Stafford and Sanchez - I can't imagine anyone could possibly put up a good argument that will say that they have been better than Campbell on a consistent basis). With an offensive line that will see some replenishment, and with our young pass catchers Thomas, Kelly, Michell and Davis continuing to develop, perhaps Campbell can even put up some more gaudy stats. I believe he may be worth a 2nd round pick this year (given that Sage Rosenfels went for a 4th round pick last year and there is a dearth of quality free agents), but he may certainly be worth a 2nd round pick in 2011 if he continues to show improvement. By that time, he will be 28 and won't have even reached his prime yet. With almost 70 career starts, at least one veteran franchise built to "win now" would jump at the chance to add that steady quarterback.

There is a scenario that no one seems to consider.

JC could turn out to be the QB we've been looking for all along despite our franchise making all the wrong moves to prepare him to be the "franchise" QB.

If the OL is addressed/re-vamped JC could take the next step everyone was looking this year but couldn't because the sub-par OL play, non-exsistent running game and the coaching/playcalling farce.

Our running game is terrible, Clinton Portis needs to go

Portis contract and his relationship with Danny make him a Redskin next year.

But the Portis as 'bell cow' days are over welcome to the RB by committee.

He needs to accept fewer carries but make them count.

Our offensive line is, quite obviously, atrocious. It needs to be rebuilt. Adding Russel Okung to our team would be a dream for me and would make us instantly better running the ball and protecting our quarterback. This move, however, would be the smartest thing to do if we wanted to win next year.

Hell freakin yeah! Russel!Russel!Russel!Russel!Russel!Russel!Russel!Russel!

What we can do to rebuild the offensive line

The biggest wildcard in all of this is whether or not Chris Samuels can return. Although he is past his prime and may not return to a pro-bowl level (although he was a probowler as recently as last year), if he returns, he will immediately return as our best offensive lineman hands down.

Everyone thought the same thing about Randy Thomas.

If we plan on Samuels to return to pro-bowl form after 2 injury plagued seasons were not really planning we're hoping.

We need to add talent at Running Back

Portis needs to go. Betts will be 31 and Rock will be 30 - I am in favor of both being kept around as backups but at this stage in their careers, neither is the future at running back for this franchise....We need to add a running back that has an "X" factor - a running back that is small and shifty, with great acceleration, speed and open field moves that can give us some big plays. Or, perhaps a running back that is big, tough and bruising - the type of back that doesn't go down on the first hit, punishes defenders and gets the tough yards between the tackles. One of these players can be found in the 4th round of the draft - a speed back that fell because of lack of size or a big back that fell because of lack of speed. Despite the player's potential faults, his physical deficiencies and an inherent rookie weakness in pass protection, he will help us in one specific area. He will make our overall running game more deadly, even if he's splitting carries. In time he could become part of a highly effective runningback-by-committee.

I don't think Portis needs to go, i think Portis needs to get healthy and have more fewer carries but make them quality carries.

After another knee injury i think Betts might be done.

I think we're good at RB, imo we should take a look at a speed back that can return punts in the later rounds 4th and down.

[myzhi]

If we are going to draft a Top 10 QB this year or the following, why would JC want to resign with the team for what amounts to small 1 year contract? There's no way in hell he's going to resign unless he gets a huge extension which in essence says he's the "future" QB. Not going to happen so just accept the dude is gone after this year.

[TheGoodBits]

Simply amazing analysis. What I found cool is that you voiced my opinion on the Redskins practically word for word the entire way through. So I really have nothing to add.

[Dallsux]

We may not be but a few years away from becoming top dog in the NFC East again, as improbable as that may seem. A top coach, franchise quarterback, good-to-great defense, a rebuilt offensive line and strong lockerroom - these are the most vital cogs to continued upper echelon success in the NFL.

That whole post...I was just getting ready to post the exact same thing, word for word.

For real, that was a great analysis & very well thought out. I personally don't like the idea of Rogers staying, however if there isn't any talent in that position to draft or pick up in FA (which is not something I necessarily want), then I would rather take my chances keeping him a little longer until we can find someone who can do that job well. I don't feel confident in Rogers-ever. He doesn't seem to me to be the smartest guy on the field & often bites on double moves & pump fakes. Aside from that, as I have mentioned in other threads about him, he has hands of stone & seemingly can't catch. He also plays the receiver far too much instead of playing the ball, which gets him in trouble more often then not. He either gets burned for big gains or PI penalties because he isn't looking for the ball, but rather at the receiver himself.

I also don't know how I feel about Samuels. I think he is solid, but has steadily declined over the years, IMHO. Sometimes, he makes bonehead mistakes that I think a lineman of his caliber should not be making. To add to that, he has become more & more injury prone over the last few seasons & this last injury may have been the nail in the coffin for his career. If so, he had a long good one & my hat's off to him.

"Thanks for all the hard work & for every time you restructured your contract so that you could stay here & be the stand-up lineman that you are. Peace out."

After reading & thinking about it, I think keeping Campbell is probably the best bet as well. I like Campbell, more for his character & his toughness then anything else & agree that he could be an asset for a new QB to learn from. Campbell is a quiet leader & his actions have spoken louder then anything he could have said. Unfortunately, what we need here is someone who will get in the face of a Santana Moss that has recently & consistently been dropping catchable passes.

I agree that Portis needs to go. I've always liked Portis, I've liked the way he ran prior to this season & even most of last season. At first, I didn't mind that he didn't want to practice that much because he was running like a beast for a while. It has finally caught up to him now I think & it's time to let him go. His attitude has become an issue as well.

I think the most important move that Snyder can make is to get rid of Cerrato pronto. If he doesn't do that, none of these things will happen. At that point, I will be convinced that Snyder is not interested in winning here, only continuing to buy FA with big paychecks & little result. But I don't think that's what Snyder wants. I think, like you, that he wants to win so bad he can taste it & he is devastated that it hasn't happened yet.

[Dallsux]

If we are going to draft a Top 10 QB this year or the following, why would JC want to resign with the team for what amounts to small 1 year contract? There's no way in hell he's going to resign unless he gets a huge extension which in essence says he's the "future" QB. Not going to happen so just accept the dude is gone after this year.

If he is, I wouldn't blame him. Although, the OP points out that if he is RFA, then they can control his future, even if for only one more year. After that, we can move him along. Quite honestly, I think he could be very successful with a team like Arizona.

[Dallsux]

Wether or not Jason has proved that he isn't the answer why can't Colt be the next Redskins QB? He's further along then any QB we draft.

Colt has 2 training camps, 2 preseason and 1 season learning the NFL from the bench. Imo that puts Colt closer to being able to take the reigns then any QB we draft.

We need another QB behind Colt Brennan. We are currently running with 2 as Brennan is on IR. Randle-El is our 3rd/emergency QB right now, so regardless, we need another QB.

[myzhi]

If he is, I wouldn't blame him. Although, the OP points out that if he is RFA, then they can control his future, even if for only one more year. After that, we can move him along. Quite honestly, I think he could be very successful with a team like Arizona.

It takes two to tango. We force to sign him, but he can play hardball by not showing up for offseason workout, training camp and so on. That's going to work out very well with new HC / system. At this point, neither person wants to tango. It's better to just accept it and move on. If we are lucky, maybe trade him for 4th rd pick.

[Dallsux]

It takes two to tango. We force to sign him, but he can play hardball by not showing up for offseason workout, training camp and so on. That's going to work out very well with new HC / system. At this point, neither person wants to tango. It's better to just accept it and move on. If we are lucky, maybe trade him for 4th rd pick.

The thing is, I could accept this as well. I like JC & hate that the FO treated him so poorly. I would like to see him succeed somewhere because I think he is a good QB.

That being said, Az would work for me because we would only have to face him the one time they pit us against the Cards. That's a good system, I think & I would venture a guess that he would fit well there.

[HailToTheRedskins14]

Would you be our GM?

I pretty much agree with everything said. I wouldn't mind Zorn/Campbell getting another year, but you're right in the fact that JC has been playing okay based on his circumstances. He's no Tom Brady but he's no Ryan Leaf.

I would be okay with giving him a 3/4 year contract, drafting a QB in the first round, then letting the rookie sit for a year/year and a half before starting. We could then trade Campbell to a team that wants is built to win with a game manager QB, and JC would have 2 years left on his contract that might entice them to make it happen.

I hate to say it, but I think Clausen might be the guy at QB. If not him, Bradford. But that's what our scouts are for.

I, too, have worried about the regression of the defense, but you have to realize our young guys rarely get a chance to play. We have to just throw them to the wolves sometime, and I think next year is the year (or this year). Let them make their mistakes and grow from it. Give The Predator more playing time, as well as Kareem Moore, Tryon, Barnes, etc.

We desperately need an OLB to put Orakpo at DE. Karlos Dansby is available in free agency, and I believe his stock has dropped significantly since last year's Superbowl run. He's not the best in the league, but he's pretty darn good and pretty stable. If we could lock him up for 4 or 5 years, I'd say do it ASAP. I don't think he'd be too expensive. Arizona does have lots of cap space (or did this offseason) though, but I get the idea they've been cheap lately.

As for drafting a RB in the fourth this year, I'd be okay with that, and I think I like that guy from Stanford if he falls. I'm not sure if he will, but anyone taking him in the first or second round is fooling themselves. Third rounder most likely, but you never know in the draft. Plenty of good players fall. If he falls, take him. There's your power back for a good time. Then pick up a speedy back in the Undrafted Free Agent pool, or go with Marcus Mason. I'm so down with cutting Portis. We'd also be good to get rid of Betts and Rock. Decent players but they're hindering the rebuilding process.

One of the reasons I was nervous about drafting a QB this year is just what you said - missing on this pick could set us back 5 years. Look at Cleveland going in circles at the QB position. It'd be even worse than where we are now. But you're right and you kinda changed my mind, if you think he's there when you pick, you take him. We might not be able to wait a year because we might be selecting #15 overall next year instead of #7 overall. Huge difference in the NFL and the only way to jump is to package some other high picks. The cycle would continue.

This year's #7 pick could be the biggest pick for the franchise ever. I don't even know what to say to that...Godspeed???

Great post.

[frerotte for president]

You mentioned Grimm for HC. With the talk about Shanahan et al I forgot about Grimm. I would be thrilled to have him working for a competent GM and put the emphasis back on O Line and running game.

[KevinthePRF]

Everything in that long post hinges on Danny firing Cerrato. An obvious move to everyone except Danny.

[darrelgreenie]

We need another QB behind Colt Brennan. We are currently running with 2 as Brennan is on IR. Randle-El is our 3rd/emergency QB right now, so regardless, we need another QB.

Why?

We don't have one now and were not the only the team that does it.

The Pats have Brady and some dude named Hoyer?

Alot of teams have 2 QBs and an emergency QB.

Stash a QB on the practice squad to call up active roster the week after a QB goes down.

[blueskin]

OP, you need to send this to Snyder, stat. sounds like a great plan.

Hell, maybe YOU should be head of scouting or even assistant GM. Well, maybe I'm exaggerating a little.

Still, kudos for the analysis.

BTW- I (weakly) disagree about Portis. I think IF we can get him to take conditioning more seriously and IF we can get him to renegotiate, as well as get him some decent blocking, he can be productive again.

[Warhead36]

Well said...ultimately it comes down to Snyder hiring the right people and letting them do their jobs...

[Popeman38]

We need another QB behind Colt Brennan. We are currently running with 2 as Brennan is on IR. Randle-El is our 3rd/emergency QB right now, so regardless, we need another QB.

Wrong. We signed Richard Bartel last week to serve as our 3rd QB.

[TheGreatBuzz]

I think all of this sounds like a great plan. There are a few small points I may not agree with totally but they aren't the point I want to make right now. My point is:

If we wait until the end of the season to get our next GM, will he/she have enough time? This whole plan rests on having a new GM (and to a lesser extent, the uncapped year). The length of the OP shows how much there is to be done. What Darth Snyder should have done is bring in a new GM earlier in the season. This way, the GM could move people around, get a few people in as he/she saw fit and have more time to evaluate. The fact the Snyder failed to do this makes me question if he is really smart enough to get rid of Vinny. What is the point of keeping him now if Snyder "knows" he isn't going to be there next year?

:dallasuck

[youngestson]

I read the OP last night but only got a chance to post today.

Very comprehensive analysis and I have to join in the compliments. There are little things here and there I would quibble with but they are just that; quibbles.

The one point we disagree seriously on however is the Snyder element. I know he says he wants a winning team and I know he says he is a life-long fan, but what we have seen over the last decade tells us otherwise.

As you mentioned, Danny has joined the scouts in checking out potential QBs for next years draft. This tells me he has learned nothing. He has Zero business injecting his presence in the evaluation and acquisition of talent for the team. This is a job left to professionals who have dedicated years and years to the job. Not a man who is no more than a dilettante.

No team in the NFL one would call stable and successful has this element of owner/GM. Dallas has since JJ left and they have stalled out at so-so. Cincy is good this year but has a record of failure stretching back over a decade with Mike Brown handling both roles, and this is a man who grew up in the NFL. Who's family business he has studied since childhood, is professional football.

Dan Snyder has created a situation where he actually repels quality people who don't want to work for a meddling boss when they have options elsewhere. And I won't believe Vinny is going anywhere until it happens. Yes Joe Gibbs came back when Dan Snyder asked him but the man is about as emotionally attached to the team as we are. No other top coach or GM out there is. They will look for the work where they can put their own plans in action, not follow the whims of an amateure. Even if he fires Vinny and goes through the FO with a leaf blower, Snyder has a long way to go before he can get the help he needs to clean up the mess he has made.

Obviously we disagree on this point, and I understand hope springs eternal. If you are right and Dan Snyder has/is changing his ways then please call me out when that happens. I hope and pray that you are 100% right and I have to eat serious amounts of crow, but I aint waiting up nights.

[Braxford]

Good post. A lot to read but good stuff anyways. Your analysis is very well thought out. I think there is a real possibility that snyder might scare off any top coaching, GM talent regardless of whether vinny is around or not. If the Skins can't get a RB in the fourth, I think they need to MLB over OLB. I love Fletcher but if he goest down, uh oh plus eventually age will have to catch up with him, either way if no RB in the 4th the Skins have got to go OL or LB depth.

[SWFLSkins]

i'm pretty sure that that post took more time to write than vinny's shift in his office.

Good gravy, sadly you are right.

It was as good and well thought out post as any in recent memory. I do disagree with a few items, retaining Rogers is probably number one. I have seen nothing that would warrant paying him this year what he will probably expect. We could go corner in the mid-draft and then lineman later, with QB or a standout tackle coming in the first.

I am not sold on any of the retread coaches out there but who knows. I would prefer Russ Grimm to any of the experience guys. What I would ultimately like to see is a coaching and GM tandem that can work togther for the next decade and develop some in-house coaching talent.

The OP did not really address the major failing of the past regime(asuming they get fired). The FO hired coaches before they hired the HC, I don't think any new GM would be willing to deal with that scenario. Also what happens to the exisiting support staff and lower level coaches, is the entire staff going to go? How long then are we the fans going to allow for positive results.

All in all I don't think Zorn failed the team, I think the team failed him. I would love nothing more than Holmgren to come in as GM and retain Zorn for at least two more years. Zorn did help Campbell grow as evidenced by the production you listed.

Great JOB OP.

[Dallsux]

Why?

We don't have one now and were not the only the team that does it.

The Pats have Brady and some dude named Hoyer?

Alot of teams have 2 QBs and an emergency QB.

Stash a QB on the practice squad to call up active roster the week after a QB goes down.

It's not common tho. Not a lot of teams do this. It's not something that most teams like to do, but it does open another roster spot for someone else we may need. It just makes me nervous thinking that if Campbell went down for extented time & the Collins went down, Randle-El is our next option. Randle-El.

Not to mention, Randle-El may not be here next year, which would be ok with me, so even if our QBs stay the same, we'll still need someone who can do the emergency position, might as well be a QB.

[Dallsux]

Wrong. We signed Richard Bartel last week to serve as our 3rd QB.

Oh that's right. What was that contract for? Is he going to be here for more then the rest of this year?

[Snagletooth]

My wish list begins with Shanahan and then Bradford.

Future is still too cloudy with 5 games still on the schedule. One win over the Raiders and the draft strategy may be significantly altered. Rams, Browns, Raiders, Seahawks, Bills, and Panthers may all be looking at QB. We may be forced into OT with that first selection, and not likely the top guy Okung. My fear is that BPA is by far one of the safeties, or Hayden at our pick.

It appears to be a safe assumption that Zorn will be gone. Once we get the HC in place things will begin to fall into place.

I will also assume, with time running out, that no new CBA is agreed upon. Making JC a restricted FA, and eliminating a huge variable.

If JC is retained and a win over the Raiders pushes us out of the running on the consensus top QB's then our forward strategy is drastically altered. Its a full rebuild vs a retool-Oline scenario in my mind.

[Springfield]

Great OP, it was a joy to read. I hope you are right about everything. Snyder should take notes.

I'd honestly like to see more of a Russ Grimm type head coach than a Shanahan or Gruden. I'd rather have a fresh guy who hasn't done coaching before (Zorn was just wrong for the spot) than the same ol' song and dance.