Eagles Rewind- Contextualizing Mr. Jackson

[PortisBetts]

I found these 2 articles written on a blog called Eagles Rewind. They are in depth analysis of the type of play maker Desean is by using actual statistcal analysis. Totally worth the read as it shows his true value vs the entire NFL. I know there are a lot of Desean threads, but this one i thought deserved its own thread. The second piece really shows his value on the deep ball and how valuable he truly is.
 
Contextualizing Mr. Jackson
Posted on March 25, 2014
Another day, another confusing report about DeSean Jackson.  Until something actually happens (like a trade or release), I’m not going to spend too much time discussing it.  There’s just not much value in speculating when we’re clearly missing a lot of information.  However, I have noticed something worrisome over the past week.  Namely, people seem to be underrating DeSean Jackson.
Make no mistake about it, DeSean Jackson is a great WR and he cannot be easily replaced.  I find it remarkable that I feel compelled to write a whole post about this, but here we are.
D-Jax entered the league in 2008.  He’s played 6 mostly healthy season with the Eagles, with 87 games played.
 
http://eaglesrewind.com/2014/03/25/contextualizing-mr-jackson/
 
More on DeSean
Posted on March 26, 2014
I told you there was more…today I’ll try to knock a few more things off the list.  For this post, I want to focus entirely on the 2013 season.  While it’s not a large sample, it does represent the “DeSean under Chip” timeframe.  Seeing as how Chip Kelly remains the coach, it seems as though this might be pretty relevant information with which to evaluate DeSean’s importance to the team for next season.
So just how good was DeSean’s 2013 season?
 
Yesterday I covered Approximate Value and Receiving Yards.  Instead of repeating the analysis, I’ll just say that DeSean had a 2013 AV of 11 and 1332 receiving yards.  That puts him in a tie for 10th in Approximate Value and 9th in yards.
 
http://eaglesrewind.com/2014/03/26/more-on-desean/

[HuhWHATdefense]

Yeah I don't think it's a secret, I believe he has the most 40+ yard catches of any WR in the league

Dude is definitely going to help, I'm not even worried about him. I think he's now got a chip on his shoulder and he will make the eagles regret their decision

[Riggo-toni]

Fantastic analysis!

[Riggo'sRangers]

This is good stuff.  Great use of the graph to visually illustrate his value.  The more I look at this deal, the more I am convinced we committed highway robbery.  Good times a coming....HTTR

[PortisBetts]

This is good stuff.  Great use of the graph to visually illustrate his value.  The more I look at this deal, the more I am convinced we committed highway robbery.  Good times a coming....HTTR

 

Seriously. If he keeps himself in line, we totally pulled off a fantastic move. I honestly can't remember a free agent of his caliber in his prime being released like this.

[SkinsTillIDie]

Another good stat posted in the comments:

 

'Jackson had the highest QB rating in the league when thrown to. In other words, QBs (Foles, Vick and Barkley) had a QB rating of 124.4 when throwing to Jackson. The next highest was Demaryius Thomas at 122.2, then Boldin at 118.6'

[TSO]

Thanks for sharing this with us PortisBetts... call me crazy, but I thought this chart was the most interesting, lol: 

 

 

 

 

Not to get off topic, but there's so much to glean from here I don't know where to start. I find it really interesting how tackles and centers taken in the first two rounds are almost always sure-fire hits. The drop off at TE from the 1st round to the 2nd is weird. You'd think TEs taken in the 2nd at least would be pretty much guarantees.

 

In the later rounds, the highest hit rate seems to consistently be Guards and Centers. I'm excluding Kickers and Punters, of course.       

 

This is just "starters" though, so it doesn't mean they're particularly good. A lot of those players starting might be just by default. Still, very interesting nonetheless. Especially the later rounds. I think this says more about scouting and what positions are hardest to judge than anything else.  

[kjames35]

I'm sorry, but I had to add this. I think it's hilarious!!

 

This is an Eagle's fan that is pissed about Desean being cut.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNUQdIkm8nA&feature=youtu.be

[nemocystem]

I'm sorry, but I had to add this. I think it's hilarious!!

This is an Eagle's fan that is pissed about Desean...

Pure gold.

This is how I figure most sane Eagles fans would react. The ones remaining indignant about how the Eagles FO operates, or belittling his impact are waiting for paper Gods to answer their prayers.

The real, tangible evidence suggests this is a dumb move by the Eagles, smart move for us.

[rskin72]

Good Analysis there, thanks for providing the links on that Portisbetts.  I always thought Jackson was a top notch WR.....great speed, and can actually catch the ball when thrown to him......

 

I am very optimistic about this....even went so far as to re-up for season tickets again!! 

 

BTW....just listened to that Philly fan....that was hilarous. 

[Koolblue13]

I'm sorry, but I had to add this. I think it's hilarious!!

This is an Eagle's fan that is pissed about Desean being cut.

better put NSFW in your post, because, well, you better believe that's a paddlin.

Good thing we have our fourth or fifth DJax thread too. I think it's time for an official ES thread.

[PortisBetts]

better put NSFW in your post, because, well, you better believe that's a paddlin.

Good thing we have our fourth or fifth DJax thread too. I think it's time for an official ES thread.

 

 

Desean is pretty big news. Fans are excited. Did you even read the article or did you just decide to come here and throw out rules and complain?

Another good stat posted in the comments:

 

'Jackson had the highest QB rating in the league when thrown to. In other words, QBs (Foles, Vick and Barkley) had a QB rating of 124.4 when throwing to Jackson. The next highest was Demaryius Thomas at 122.2, then Boldin at 118.6'

 

I always thought DJax was a very big threat. I never realized how all around he helped out the entire team from quarterbacks, to other receivers, running backs and special teams. I love finding these facts about our new stud.

[warskins65]

Ohh crap, getting excited for Redskin football in April, AGAIN. 

 

I just hope everyone stays healthy and focused until September and all the drunk driving and gang banging is done to the ballas in San Andeas.....

[PortisBetts]

I'm sorry, but I had to add this. I think it's hilarious!!

 

This is an Eagle's fan that is pissed about Desean being cut.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bNUQdIkm8nA&feature=youtu.be

 

Off topic....This guys dog is awesome

[PortisBetts]

Thanks for sharing this with us PortisBetts... call me crazy, but I thought this chart was the most interesting, lol: 

 

 

 

 

Not to get off topic, but there's so much to glean from here I don't know where to start. I find it really interesting how tackles and centers taken in the first two rounds are almost always sure-fire hits. The drop off at TE from the 1st round to the 2nd is weird. You'd think TEs taken in the 2nd at least would be pretty much guarantees.

 

In the later rounds, the highest hit rate seems to consistently be Guards and Centers. I'm excluding Kickers and Punters, of course.       

 

This is just "starters" though, so it doesn't mean they're particularly good. A lot of those players starting might be just by default. Still, very interesting nonetheless. Especially the later rounds. I think this says more about scouting and what positions are hardest to judge than anything else.  

 

I gave this a cursory glance, but you are right. That is crazy how high the success rate is for lineman in the high rounds and speaks to where we should be looking and when.

[BleedBNG]

This is an Eagle's fan that is pissed about Desean being cut.

 

Yeah, the guy reminded me that they picked up Sproles, and when I heard it about a week or so earlier on the radio, I was like "Oh jeeeez" with my head down. I hope he's right in that DJax will burn them twice this year. Yup, karma's a **** Mr. Lurie.

His dog was obviously a Redskins fan... it was just so damn happy.

[TSO]

Some of the comments on the blog post were pretty interesting: 

 

 

pcausey on 

March 27, 2014 at 1:19 pm said:

First time reader. Loved this post. You have me hooked. Question: was there a difference in Jackson’s production between Vick and Foles? I saw some stats showing that Jackson’s catches, yards and touchdowns dropped fairly significantly once Foles became the quarterback. Does the same hold true for his catch rate and/or EPA? If so, I think an argument can be made that we need to look at an even smaller (and yes, less reliable) subset of this, and focus exclusively on his catch rate, target rate and EPA with Foles as his QB in 2013.

 

 

Greezy Neal on 

March 27, 2014 at 4:39 pm said:

Another interesting stat is that Jackson had the highest QB rating in the league when thrown to. In other words, QBs (Foles, Vick and Barkley) had a QB rating of 124.4 when throwing to Jackson. The next highest was Demaryius Thomas at 122.2, then Boldin at 118.6.

The comments on here and other sites on Jackson’s drop rate re Maclin also need to be kept in perspective. Jackson had a very low drop rate in 2012 and 2013, but he had one of the highest rates (horrible rates) in the league in 2010 and 2011. Maclin has been fairly steady at about the league average.

[Laxpunk2006]

Really great information in those links.  Thanks for sharing.

[PortisBetts]

Some of the comments on the blog post were pretty interesting: 

 

Another interesting stat is that Jackson had the highest QB rating in the league when thrown to. In other words, QBs (Foles, Vick and Barkley) had a QB rating of 124.4 when throwing to Jackson. The next highest was Demaryius Thomas at 122.2, then Boldin at 118.6.

The comments on here and other sites on Jackson’s drop rate re Maclin also need to be kept in perspective. Jackson had a very low drop rate in 2012 and 2013, but he had one of the highest rates (horrible rates) in the league in 2010 and 2011. Maclin has been fairly steady at about the league average.

That second comment stood out for me. He is making really mediocre qb's look great is pretty much what that is telling me. Imagine him playing with a qb who is very accurate?

[RSanz]

Great reads.  Thanks for posting!

 

I'm confident that DJax will provide our offense with a big boost.  Really excited to have him on our side!

[NickyJ]

"Make no mistake about it, DeSean Jackson is a great WR and he cannot be easily replaced."

Yeah, well he's on the Redskins now, so he's actually a dirty, rotten little crybaby who is the scum of the earth, hangs out with gangs, and shoots cars passing by on their way to the stadium as his first pastime over football. /media&Eagles fans

[Larry]

Another good stat posted in the comments:

 

'Jackson had the highest QB rating in the league when thrown to. In other words, QBs (Foles, Vick and Barkley) had a QB rating of 124.4 when throwing to Jackson. The next highest was Demaryius Thomas at 122.2, then Boldin at 118.6'

 

Yeah, I saw somebody else posted a chart, where they broke down which route DJax ran, and what his completion % was, his YAC, and his QB rating, for that route. 

 

What I remember from that chart was that his best route was the crossing route.  The out route was like his 3rd-4th best. 

[skins2victory]

Great information right there.  Thanks for sharing!  

[JaxJoe]

I am very optimistic about this....even went so far as to re-up for season tickets again!! 

Same here, I re-upped as soon as I read about the signing.  I live in FL and it was getting too difficult to see games and it's a hell of a lot of money and time to fly up there two-three times a year.  And after last seasons dismal finish, the wife and I decided to give up on the season tickets.  But I got totally pumped when I read we had an agreement.  I then plunked down the cash (ouch) for this next season.

[JaxJoe]

Not to get off topic, but there's so much to glean from here I don't know where to start. 

I don't think you're off topic at all.  The point of this OP was two-fold:  1) That we signed a great receiver; and 2) That the Eagles will not be able to replace him in this years draft. This chart supports #2.

 

I too started to look at these probabilities with more speculation.  It was the decreasing likelihoods per position that stood out to me.  For instance, if I was purely a statistician, I would select a center with the first pick because it was 100% starter, right?  My second round would always be a Tackle because it too has the highest 'sucess' rate for a starter. And, so on.  But I'd end up with three punters each time I drafted. So that is obviously not the proper way of looking at this table.

 

What I propose is to look at this table as a Risk Analysis tool.  Meaning, "what is the likelihood that I can I select a certain position who can start his first year versus the round I select that position in?"

 

I can do this by looking at the difference in percentage value between the first and second round per position and compare that drop versus other positions; therefore identifying the risk trends per position.  So, In the frist round, the Offensive Center drops from 100 to 70 percent, a significant decline of 30% whereas an Offensive Tackle only declines by 12%.  See what I mean?  Again, this is purely a statistical assessment and not a evaluation of the player himself. The least drop off is the Linebacker position for all three rounds.  So, I'd be less likely to draft a linebacker in the first or, maybe even the second round.

 

We don't have a 1st round selection but my methodology still applies.  Looking at this chart and trying to lessen my risk at finding a starter, I would probably select a defensive back (i.e. a Safety) because that position has the steepest drop-off between the 2nd and 3rd rounds (31% drop).  The next steepest 2nd to 3rd round drop is Offensive Guard (29% drop). So those would be my two position targets for the second round. However, to maximize Risk Reduction, the Safety position in the 2nd round has a 51% chance of starting versus the Offensive Guard at 64%.  So I would select the Offensive Guard Position as my second round pick.

 

But you can't ignore Offensive Tackle.  Even though the tackle position drop is only 18% drop between 2nd and 3rd round, it has the greatest drop between 3rd and 4th round meanining: its twice less likely that  I'd find a starting Tackle in the 4th round compared to the 3rd.  So, I would likely take a Tackle in the third, and not the safety I passed up on in the 2nd.

 

My conclusion based purely on this chart:  An Offensive Guard (but Safety isn't a bad choice either) in the second and an Right Tackle in the third.  But the silly thing about statistics is that each year I'd select a Guard in the second and a Tackle in the third.