2024 NFL Draft Position/Tracker - Final Pick #2

[Rufus T Firefly]

3 hours ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

Here's the likely outcome with the chalk-y results. Even if the Pats beat the Jets in Week 18, we have too much to overcome re: SOS. Now, if the Pats somehow upset the Chiefs or Bills or Broncos the next two weeks, that changes everything.

 

 

Now, if the Pats upset, say, the Broncos, here's the order:

 

 

If the first scenario holds, and the Jets beat the Pats in Week 18 (Pats lose out) and we beat the Jets, you're looking at this ... and I do not know who would get the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders:

 

 

 

And if the Pats beat the Jets in the final week, and we beat the Jets ... here's what you'd have ... again, the tie-break between Chargers and Commanders would determine whether we pick #5 or #6 

 

 

Bottom line, I think we're locked into the Top 6 even if we beat the Jets. But we could go as high as #2 depending on what the Pats do, if we lose out. And our rooting interests in Week 18 will entirely depend on whether we lose to the Jets and are in play for #2, or if we beat the Jets and want them to get to 6 wins with a victory over the Pats. 

 

Where are you actually getting these SOS rankings? They don't line up with anything else I've seen. 

[JamesMadisonSkins]

1 minute ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

Where are you actually getting these SOS rankings? They don't line up with anything else I've seen. 

 

They are live SOS based on the simulator results that I played out. 

[zCommander]

Are there any rooting interest for the 3 games on Saturday?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

7 minutes ago, zCommander said:

Are there any rooting interest for the 3 games on Saturday?

 

Week 15 Rooting Interests re: SOS and Draft Positioning:

Panthers over Falcons

Patriots over Chiefs

Browns over Bears

Rams over Commanders

Bills over Cowboys

Seahawks over Eagles

Lions over Broncos

[YouLikeThat]

Based on most recent drafts Williams Maye and Daniels in some order will all be picked on the top 3. If we are in the top 3 run the card up immediately and pick Williams or Daniels. If we not in the top 3 and we don't want Harrison which i would easily take at 4 then I'd trade down to the 6-8 range and get the best OT left

[JSSkinz]

@Skinsinparadise@JamesMadisonSkins Does anyone think Daniels has a chance to climb into that top 10 and drive some urgency for a desperate team?

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, JSSkinz said:

@Skinsinparadise@JamesMadisonSkins Does anyone think Daniels has a chance to climb into that top 10 and drive some urgency for a desperate team?

 

Yes. I think he's already been talked about in that range based on a lot of mock drafts. A lot depends on who holds those picks, but I would guess as we move closer to the draft, the changes of those 3 QBs going Top 5 will come into clarity as a reality.

[Koolblue13]

Why is everyone so convinced that the Cards will take MHJ, instead of Daniels? I just don't see it. I know they're tied into that awful contract, but Kyler is a **** and doesn't love football. I can absolutely see Gannon wanting to move away from him. It puts Kyler on a very hot seat and if he gets benched half way through the year, his contract can be reworked to trade him if he wants i to. 

2 minutes ago, JSSkinz said:

@Skinsinparadise@JamesMadisonSkins Does anyone think Daniels has a chance to climb into that top 10 and drive some urgency for a desperate team?

I think his ceiling is #2 overall.

[YouLikeThat]

This is how foolish people are and can't see the big picture. You build up around Howell who is a average web with average attributes (Name an elite qb trait) he can probably get you 7-9 wins and with that you picking around 10-15. Guess what you most likely won't get an elite qb then either. So take advantage of a top 4 pick in a qb rich draft when you have a question at qb

Edited December 15, 2023 by YouLikeThat
Hit enter prematurely

[JSSkinz]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Yes. I think he's already been talked about in that range based on a lot of mock drafts. A lot depends on who holds those picks, but I would guess as we move closer to the draft, the changes of those 3 QBs going Top 5 will come into clarity as a reality.

So I'm thinking this is our scenario for the best haul if we trade out.  I think the 3rd pick is probably the best case and if someone right behind us wants him we could end up getting that Niners type deal you mentioned earlier. Maybe wishful thinking but we know teams are desperate for young talented QBs.

[mac8887]

Just now, YouLikeThat said:

This is how foolish people are and can't see the big picture. You build up around Howell who is a average web with average attributes (Name an elite qb trait) he can probably get you 7-9 wins

This!!! You look at daniels, he has elite speed, that rpo offense would look real good with him, and williams looks to be elite at improvising and making great plays on the move and getting out of a busted pocket. They elite abilities can mask some offensive deficiencies

[JamesMadisonSkins]

Just now, mac8887 said:

This!!! You look at daniels, he has elite speed, that rpo offense would look real good with him, and williams looks to be elite at improvising and making great plays on the move and getting out of a busted pocket. They elite abilities can mask some offensive deficiencies

 

And that might be what the new front office ultimately decides to do. We have no idea what path they take. But we've talked about it in here pretty extensively. 

 

Option A: Draft a QB you think can be the franchise QB

Option B: There's enough faith that Howell could be that guy, build around him

Option C: Leverage the draft pick to get future draft picks to hedge bets on Option B. Future drafts and QB prospects are unknown, but the least you can do is load up on future picks to make a play for a QB if Howell is not the answer, and you already have started building the team around him.

[Rufus T Firefly]

28 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

They are live SOS based on the simulator results that I played out. 

So, they don't seem to have anything to do with anything, yet you are posting them and making declarative statements based on them. 

 

Right now New England's is .525 and ours is .529, which is basically two games out of all the games still to be played by our opponents, but you're telling everyone "there's too much to overcome" for us to finish ahead of them in the tiebreaker. 

 

This is just nonsense, frankly. 

[mac8887]

Just now, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

And that might be what the new front office ultimately decides to do. We have no idea what path they take. But we've talked about it in here pretty extensively. 

 

Option A: Draft a QB you think can be the franchise QB

Option B: There's enough faith that Howell could be that guy, build around him

Option 😄 Leverage the draft pick to get future draft picks to hedge bets on Option B. Future drafts and QB prospects are unknown, but the least you can do is load up on future picks to make a play for a QB if Howell is not the answer, and you already have started building the team around him.

I like option a the most unless we win enough to where we'd have to mortgage the future to trade up fro one of the top 3 qbs. I wouldn't even mind if we had to give up maybe a second this year and next. But if we have to give up next year's 1st then I say stick with Howell another year

[JSSkinz]

I dont think it's a no brainer for AZ to pick a QB, they could add Harrison and change the dynamics of their offense, and revitalize Kyler's career.  

[mac8887]

Just now, JSSkinz said:

I dont think it's a no brainer for AZ to pick a QB, they could add Harrison and change the dynamics of their offense, and revitalize Kyler's career.  

I hope they go with Marv, that makes us more likely to have a chance for one of those qbs.

[Voice_of_Reason]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Of course its all subjective.  I've not watched all of them yet.

 

The main difference in skipping the top 2 choices is you are moving from LT to RT.  Alt and Fashanu are natural LTs.  Mims, Lathan, Fauga are RTs -- all high ceiling RTs.  Some would rank Guyton, Morgan in that group, too.   Fautanu is more likely a guard but he could play tackle, too.

 

So cliff notes is it LT or bust?  if so its those 2 early on.  If you are open to a RT, plenty of fish in the sea. 

 

2nd roundish:  LT, Patrick Paul, Saumataia

 

In short a lot of depth, a lot of good RTs and guards-centers in this draft.  So if you trade down and focus purely on the O line.  you can get a RT, guard -- and maybe a LT with potential.   If you want a high floor LT, IMO take Fashanu or Alt early.  

For me, if I had a top 5 pick, let's say QB was off the board and so was Harrison Jr., I'm taking a LT.  And then I might double-dip in the second round and get a RT also.  

 

But from what I can tell, the LT FA market isn't going to be super hot, and they HAVE to get somebody better than Leno.  For that reason, again, all things being equal, I'd take the LT over the RT.  

 

UNLESS you have a better answer than Leno at LT already, can move down and collect additioanal firsts for next year, and then I'll hear you out on that.

 

But all things being equal, I'm taking a LT at #4 or #5.

 

And FWIW, I think that's where we're going to be drafting.  Call it a hunch.  I don't think we'll get up to #2 or #3, and I do think we'll win another game somewhere.  So will a lot of the 5-X teams now, so we're going to end up around #4-#5.  

 

I HOPE we don't screw it up and we lose out.  But I'm pretty sure we'll screw it up.  

[JamesMadisonSkins]

16 minutes ago, Rufus T Firefly said:

So, they don't seem to have anything to do with anything, yet you are posting them and making declarative statements based on them. 

 

Right now New England's is .525 and ours is .529, which is basically two games out of all the games still to be played by our opponents, but you're telling everyone "there's too much to overcome" for us to finish ahead of them in the tiebreaker. 

 

This is just nonsense, frankly. 

 

I literally wrote out a week by week rooting interest that included all of the games that would have an impact. 

 

Our SOS is going to fluctuate greatly. I ran the simulator dozens of times and changed individual matchups each week to get us to overcome the Patriots SOS. It isn't impossible, but there are really only a few situations that allow for us to overtake them on that tie-breaker, because our common opponents.

 

If Dallas beats the Dolphins and Bills ... that's 4 losses for the Pats and 2 losses for us. That's also 2 wins for us and 1 win for the Pats. The Eagles also play the Dolphins.

 

That's just one example of about 20 that could change between now and Week 18, but there's probably a 5% chance that we overtake them based on the matchups that I ran. Of the 34 remaining matchups that impact SOS (I'm sure I missed a couple here or there), we'd need about 28 of the 34 to come true, and that includes at least 12-15 straight upsets.

 

I said it was a week-to-week thing that we are going to have to analyze. The Pats SOS actually jumps to .540 and ours drops to .498 after Week 15 if "everything goes in our favor" but then it completely flips back in favor of the Patriots if the Cowboys beat the Bills and the Eagles beat the Dolphins. 

Edited December 15, 2023 by JamesMadisonSkins

[Est.1974]

8 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

Our SOS is going to fluctuate greatly.

Probably need to leave it be and circle back around in two weeks to be honest.

[JSSkinz]

Leno, Wylie, and Gates will cost us over $21MM in dead cap next year once cut, brutal mistakes by this FO will haunt us for a couple of years.

[justice98]

1 hour ago, zCommander said:

Are there any rooting interest for the 3 games on Saturday?

 

There's not even any players I wanna see get snaps.  Literally the only interest is Howell's performance.  Can he ball out and finish strong, or will he keep throwing pick sixes.

[The Consigliere]

22 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I know some here (not you) would like to see Daniels wear Giants blue not me.  The Giants are an odd team.  Their recent draft classes look good.  Some good FA signings too.  Yet they've stunk this year -- feels like a combination of bad QB play and injuries especially on the O line.  But I am not gung ho to see how they do with potentially a better QB.  A season ago, they were a playoff team and won a playoff game.  It's part of the reason why I want to see the Giants win streak continue.

 

 

 

The Giants don't have a QB, don't have a long term answer at RB, don't have any WR's worth a ----, an old if quality TE, and a bottom quartile Defense, I have no idea how good their OL is, hopefully for them it's solid. 

 

They are miles away from relevance, just like we are. Having a couple of special players does not a great team make. They need to rebuild pretty much every single positional cohort just like we do. There's a reason we've been neck and neck all season amongst the worst teams in the NFC, and league wide. 

 

I'm assuming Schneier is either a NY based guy, or a generalist media guy because that's an incredibly moronic take. 

[Rufus T Firefly]

20 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

Probably need to leave it be and circle back around in two weeks to be honest.

You mean, you don't want random people projecting how all 17 opponents (technically 14 with divisional opponents counting twice) will fare in all 4 remaining games and then declaring their guess to be a virtual fact?

 

Not going to keep going with this, but when one team's opponents have a .525 win pct and the other .529, declaring that there is only a 5% chance one or the other will do better during the reminder of the season is... let's just call it "silly."

[The Consigliere]

19 hours ago, clskinsfan said:

I actually think Sam is a better prospect than Baker. He has a WAY bigger arm and knows how to protect himself far better than Mayfield. Baker is probably a better decision maker right now. Bit Sam could grow into that. 

We'll see, I think Sam is more of a known. At this point, Baker's around 70 starts into his career, he's a known commodity, having played in 3 systems for a slew of coaches and team builds. He's been fine in half of his seasons, basically league average, bottom quartile in the other. Sam's shown greater upside to me, but also a lower floor. 

[Skinsinparadise]

1 hour ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

 

The reality is probably less about Maye at #2 and what happens if we sit at #3 or #4. I would assume the Bears go Caleb and the Pats go Maye. Then the Cardinals probably go Harrison, Jr. at #3. 

 

That would leave us at #4 with Jayden Daniels on the board. If his hype is also real, then we are in the Lance position that the Dolphins were in 2021. And to get that type of draft haul from #4 we'd certainly need to move back to #10-12 range. I think you could still get a 1st, 2nd and 1st in that trade back, but it might be a bit more of a stretch. Maybe the 1st and 3rd and a future 1st? Would we take that to move off the Top OTs and Daniels? At least that's a bit of an easier decision for a new GM than passing on Maye at #2. 

 

Agree much more likely about picking 3 or 4.   

 

Might be easier for the GM to make the call in that case, I agree.  But he still better be right.  For exampe, if the Lamar comps end up on the money for Daniels -- the irony of passing on him considering so many attribute the Ravens emergence with younger fans in the DMV as having to do with Lamar makes it an interesting twist if the pass up on Daniels and he lives up to that hype.

 

They need to win and need to sell tickets, too.  If lets say Daniels ends up Lamar Part 2 especially if its against us in our own division and Sam ends up the 2nd coming of Derek Carr or less -- that's a death blow decision for the GM.  I know some think its meanginless if the Giants end up with whomever they pass over.  But lets say we got 50% of the stands full of Giant fans in a big game towards the end of the season when lets say Daniels is one of the better QBs in the league and are 10-4 facing the 6-8 Commanders and Sam is pedestrian -- and the crowd goes wild for Daniels as he helps beat us -- I don't think Harris will find it meaningless if the GM passed over the QB and in turn a division rival benefitted from said decision.   It adds to the stakes of this IMO. 

 

My point in short is they need to research the heck out of these QBs.   This franchise isn't used to picking this high with ballyhooed QBs up for grabs -- so for the GM to pass over the decision he better be right.  

Edited December 15, 2023 by Skinsinparadise