2024 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[philibusters]

2 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

Should also mention this board and a lot of draftnik's were very, very down on Richardson, and he looked fantastic, when healthy this year for the Colts. 

 

Richardson looked competent which was very promising given how raw he was supposed to be, but saying he looked fantastic is probably too strong.  He had a meh PFF grade and a solid, but nothing special 87.3 QB rating, which coincidentally is the exact same rating as Howell so far this year.   Richardson's QBR was 46.4 vs. Howell's 49.2.  I myself was surprised at how competent Richardson looked, but lets not confuse the year he was having with say the year CJ Stroud is having, which is truly a fantastic year for a rookie QB.   Richardson year was viewed as better given the low expectations for him since he was viewed as very raw.

[Skinsinparadise]

4 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

How the Cards deal with Murray will be very interesting and very impactful for the top half of the draft most likely.

I'm curious though--what is the talent difference between Alt/Fashanu and say Mims or Fuaga. Is it worth trading back to the teens for one of those two and picking up extra picks? Or possibly drafting MHJ and moving back up for one of the 2nd Tier OTs?

 

I am higher here than some on Fashanu and Alt but I'd still trade down.  I love Fauga, haven't watched Mims yet.   I am not married to taking a tackle in the top 10 but if the conversation is boxed in to purely tackle i'd ideally trade down. 

[Riggo#44]

Howell has pretty much the same QBR as Jalen Hurts, his first full year starting, with a worse cast, while asked to do A LOT more. Jalen Hurts OC also went on to become the Colts HC. I don't think anyone on this staff is going to be an HC. I'm very interested to see what Howell does under the new staff.

[philibusters]

3 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

 

I'm curious though--what is the talent difference between Alt/Fashanu and say Mims or Fuaga. Is it worth trading back to the teens for one of those two and picking up extra picks? Or possibly drafting MHJ and moving back up for one of the 2nd Tier OTs?

 

Thats a tough question.  In terms of talent difference I would rank them Fashanu, Alt, then Fuaga.  I view Mims as a different sort of prospect.  He could be a homerun, but he is the most raw of the prospect, so the chances of a bust or probably higher with him.  A bit like Broderick Jones last year who seems to be working out for the Steelers now that he has moved into the starting lineup.

 

My very early take is Fashanu is my number 1 and Alt and Fuaga are pretty close.  Alt is the better technician, while Fuaga is the RT who is very physical and will be a solid, but not amazong pass protector, but who is a very good run blocker.  If I could pick up extra picks and be sure of getting Fuaga, I would probably do it assuming the extra pick was meaningful (like a 2nd rounder or two third rounders) but its pretty early in the process.

[The Consigliere]

9 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

You watched that many RBs already?  Wow.  That's a lot of time.

 

I've watched 9 of those players but only 6 of them heavily.  Judging by those players alone i got a very different take than you.  But I got a long way to go.

 

I like Jonathon Brooks but with a torn ACL in Novemeber, not sure he's coming out in the draft from what I've read.

That latter point is relevant. I'd love to sneak draft Brooks in like the 6th or 7th round, but what are the chances he goes into the draft knowing at best, he's a late day 3 pick w/that ACL issue? Yeah, probably goes back to school. 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Surprised that maybe the most QB obsessed person here thinks that the Cardinals should pass over one of the most hyped QB prospects we've had in the last 10 years.

 

Murrary had one very good year, the other three, ranked 15th, 19th in QBR and is struggilng this season.  Top 10 QB with legit upside, doesn't characterize his career so far and now he's coming off an ACL injury, has looked bad, and he's a QB reliant on his legs, but the best is yet to come?

 

Same dude who has been characeterized via various leaks as being a sour dude in the locker room, bad leader, and doesn't work hard. 

 

I think the Cards would be idiots to pass over Drake Maye.  but you never know. will see.

 

The Bears took Trubisky, Fields in the top 10 in recent years, should they pass over Caleb?

Nope on the Bears, but Kyler isn't Fields or Trubisky. He's a legit QB, top 10 when healthy and with weapons, league average when not. 

 

Now your last point, or 3rd to last is the tag I put in my post, is the one caveat I have/had. Note I mentioned that if the new crew thinks they can work with him and build a team around him, keep him. I don't know how they feel about him. Last year was a total disaster and this year he was injured for half the season.

 

I don't have a problem with them going in another direction at QB, if the bridges are burned, but they need to know that in doing so, they'll be selling a QB asset for dimes on the dollar and buying a 50/50 option when Murray is proven. He's not tier 1, but I do think with weapons and an OL he's a top 10 QB for sure, with better upside on his good days. You won't get that return if you deal him. It's a risk, there's no guarantee whatsoever Maye even comes close to Murray, that's my concern, bird in hand. I don't view Murray as league average or as low as you do, I view him as a guy who can be very good to above average w/anything remotely like solid talent around him. He's not a Dalton/Carr to me, he's a guy who can climb inside the top 10 in a good year, and sit around league average+ in a bad one. I see your QBR, but when I look at their assets, no run game, hmmmm OL, and usually not much in terms of pass catchers, its not surprising to me that he's been up and down. 

1 hour ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

I'd be all for it. I also agree with your assessment there are no sure fire studs as Jonathan Taylor this class but some IMO come pretty close. 

The Ohio State kid and a few others basically had some heat coming in, but none delivered for the most part. I just don't see it. I viewed Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, Akers as much better, that '17 class as much better, the '18 class that mostly busted as much better, '21 and '22 were very top heavy (like 2-3 guys and then meh) but all the top guys hit except Harris. This one just seems pretty yuck, oddly kind of similar to last years class in the sense of A TON of guys that will go between the 3rd and 5th round, but it lacks the top backs that '23 did have. The top backs in this class are either hurt, were hurt a lot in college, or underwhelming in their final year. 

[Chump Bailey]

4 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

The Ohio State kid and a few others basically had some heat coming in, but none delivered for the most part. I just don't see it. I viewed Dobbins, Taylor, Swift, Akers as much better, that '17 class as much better, the '18 class that mostly busted as much better, '21 and '22 were very top heavy (like 2-3 guys and then meh) but all the top guys hit except Harris. This one just seems pretty yuck, oddly kind of similar to last years class in the sense of A TON of guys that will go between the 3rd and 5th round, but it lacks the top backs that '23 did have. The top backs in this class are either hurt, were hurt a lot in college, or underwhelming in their final year. 

 

For me, Dobbins, Taylor and Javonte Williams were some of the best RB's I've seen come out in a long, long time. It's a shame injuries have likely ended Dobbins career. Swift is not far behind either. The Chiefs whiffed badly drafting CEH instead of Swift. That offense would be insane. If memory serves that is - too lazy to check but think that's accurate.

[The Consigliere]

18 minutes ago, philibusters said:

 

Richardson looked competent which was very promising given how raw he was supposed to be, but saying he looked fantastic is probably too strong.  He had a meh PFF grade and a solid, but nothing special 87.3 QB rating, which coincidentally is the exact same rating as Howell so far this year.   Richardson's QBR was 46.4 vs. Howell's 49.2.  I myself was surprised at how competent Richardson looked, but lets not confuse the year he was having with say the year CJ Stroud is having, which is truly a fantastic year for a rookie QB.   Richardson year was viewed as better given the low expectations for him since he was viewed as very raw.

I wouldn't. Stroud is basically having a Joe Burrow level breakout, a Dan Marino level "no doubt about it" which is flushing that S2 test down the toilet damn it (was hoping for something, anything, to help evaulating QBs but alas, the Bryce Young S2 genius, Stroud S2 washout narrative went down in a burst of flames). But Richardson was vastly better than anyone expected as a thrower and a ridiculous weapon in general. Nobody reasonable expected him to be a Burrow in terms of throwing the football, and he isn't, but when you can get around league average throwing production w/the rest of what he brings, he's a mega hit of a prospect. The problem is health. He's getting injured like RGIII did. If he cant stay healthy, none of it matters. We'll see. 

[Skinsinparadise]

10 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Nope on the Bears, but Kyler isn't Fields or Trubisky. He's a legit QB, top 10 when healthy and with weapons, league average when not. 

 

Now your last point, or 3rd to last is the tag I put in my post, is the one caveat I have/had. Note I mentioned that if the new crew thinks they can work with him and build a team around him, keep him. I don't know how they feel about him. Last year was a total disaster and this year he was injured for half the season.

 

I don't have a problem with them going in another direction at QB, if the bridges are burned, but they need to know that in doing so, they'll be selling a QB asset for dimes on the dollar and buying a 50/50 option when Murray is proven. He's not tier 1, but I do think with weapons and an OL he's a top 10 QB for sure, with better upside on his good days. You won't get that return if you deal him. It's a risk, there's no guarantee whatsoever Maye even comes close to Murray, that's my concern, bird in hand. I don't view Murray as league average or as low as you do, I view him as a guy who can be very good to above average w/anything remotely like solid talent around him. He's not a Dalton/Carr to me, he's a guy who can climb inside the top 10 in a good year, and sit around league average+ in a bad one. I see your QBR, but when I look at their assets, no run game, hmmmm OL, and usually not much in terms of pass catchers, its not surprising to me that he's been up and down. 

 

 

I don't view him as a top 10.   Somewhere between 12-16 range.  And a dude like that who also is undersized, who also is coming off a bad injury on his knee when his legs are a big part of his game, who also has played his worse football in recent years and who also maybe gets trashed more than any other Qb in the league right now as for how he acts in the locker room.  He's had plenty of good pass catchers in his career.

 

To me its a no brainer to move on from him to Drake.  But will see what they do.

[JamesMadisonSkins]

I was listening to SiriusXM the other day and they were saying the Bears almost have to take Caleb Williams #1 ... and that the market for fields should be really hot. I think it might have been Jim Bowden on SXM Fantasy --- said he suspects Fields will be traded for a minimum of a 1st. Maybe not this year, but something like a 2nd and 3rd this year and a 2025 2nd that becomes a conditional 1st based on performance.

 

If that's the case, with so many QB-needy teams, and the upside Fields has exhibited, if I were a team that was built well but lacked an impact QB, I'd be all over that. Also, good for the Bears too, continuing to load up on picks. 

 

We'll see how it ends up turning out but that was the first time I heard and thought about Fields possibly getting high capital in return to the Bears.

[The Consigliere]

25 minutes ago, Chump Bailey said:

 

For me, Dobbins, Taylor and Javonte Williams were some of the best RB's I've seen come out in a long, long time. It's a shame injuries have likely ended Dobbins career. Swift is not far behind either. The Chiefs whiffed badly drafting CEH instead of Swift. That offense would be insane. If memory serves that is - too lazy to check but think that's accurate.

No, you're right. He was quoted repeatedly as seeing Brian Westbrook in CEH, and then CEH just wasn't a special player, at all, even his pass catching chops which were supposed to be first rate were hugely disappointing.

 

That year it was basically pre-combine:

1. Swift

1b. Taylor

3. Dobbins

-------------------

4. Akers

5. CEH

-----------

6. Vaughn

7. Dillon

8. Moss

------------

9. Gibson

10. J. Kelley

-------------------

11. Eno

12. Lynn Bowden

 

The draft shot CEH to 1.01/1.02 on a lot of draft boards. That might be the last time that happens as the previous year AJ Brown's value collapsed after Tennessee drafted him and then CEH's rises 50% on landing spot and then the reverse is whats relevant (the talent). Landing spot still matters, but people can be too swayed by it at times. 

 

 

[The Consigliere]

1 hour ago, Riggo#44 said:

Howell has pretty much the same QBR as Jalen Hurts, his first full year starting, with a worse cast, while asked to do A LOT more. Jalen Hurts OC also went on to become the Colts HC. I don't think anyone on this staff is going to be an HC. I'm very interested to see what Howell does under the new staff.

I'm pretty alarmed at how non-Redskins/WFT/Commanders fans see him as "whatevs,", I try to keep my biases in check. the dude at theringer ranked him quite low, though adjusted for draft prospects it's around 21st or 22nd. I still see that as too low, most of his measurables suggest he's somewhere between 8th-24th in most categories, he has a few super low one's. Now adjust for ---- show OL, terrible coaching, and bottom 3 pass catching performance, and it probably should be a tick higher, but it is true, most people outside of DC just don't see it, and/or view him as Baker Mayfied Part II. I worry a bit but am still cautiously optimistic. 

41 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I don't view him as a top 10.   Somewhere between 12-16 range.  And a dude like that who also is undersized, who also is coming off a bad injury on his knee when his legs are a big part of his game, who also has played his worse football in recent years and who also maybe gets trashed more than any other Qb in the league right now as for how he acts in the locker room.  He's had plenty of good pass catchers in his career.

 

To me its a no brainer to move on from him to Drake.  But will see what they do.

Yeah, but let's talk about all the good things, <crickets> 😅.

 

Well when you put it that way, yeah, I could see that. I just worry if I'm a team like the Cardinals, using 3 picks in 6 years on QB's, when one of them hit, is not the way to build a franchise, but if the bridges are burned, then yeah, you probably move on, it's just gonna take longer to fix, but the key selling point of going QB is that when you suck, it's rare you suck well enough to land in the top 2-3, and do it for a great top end QB class. Arizona managed to accomplish both, from that perspective, pulling the trigger on a reboot now is probably wiser than waiting and hoping. 

[The Consigliere]

21 minutes ago, JamesMadisonSkins said:

I was listening to SiriusXM the other day and they were saying the Bears almost have to take Caleb Williams #1 ... and that the market for fields should be really hot. I think it might have been Jim Bowden on SXM Fantasy --- said he suspects Fields will be traded for a minimum of a 1st. Maybe not this year, but something like a 2nd and 3rd this year and a 2025 2nd that becomes a conditional 1st based on performance.

 

If that's the case, with so many QB-needy teams, and the upside Fields has exhibited, if I were a team that was built well but lacked an impact QB, I'd be all over that. Also, good for the Bears too, continuing to load up on picks. 

 

We'll see how it ends up turning out but that was the first time I heard and thought about Fields possibly getting high capital in return to the Bears.

It's hard for me to imagine a market for Field's thats hot after how he's played his first 3 years, and only having 1 season left on his rookie deal before you have to sign off on the 5th year option. I just don't know how valuable that is, and I like Fields (though not nearly as much as 2 years ago, what a disappointment that class has been, nobody, not one of the QB's from a loaded class has played closed to expectations and most have flat out busted: Lawrence, Z. Wilson, Trey Lance, Justin Fields, Mac Jones, what a ---- show). Reminds me a lot of 1999, and 2018, where you basically had to dodge busts like Indiana Jones dodges, arrows, rolling rocks and spike pits: Tim Couch, Akilli Smith, Cade McNown, my beloved Daunte Boat Party Culpepper, all <fart in church> level disasters of varying sorts, and then in '18, Darnold, Josh Rosen, yikes, Baker-okay, only Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson, who seemed like the lowest floor guys, hit. Just awful. It's happened a lot too, 1999, I think 2006 (or was it '07), '12, '18, and '21-all big classes, all were more busty than normal, only ones that seemed to hit were those classes with 3 guys like '04, '17, '20, seems like the good but not plentiful classes have higher hit rates, I know that's randomness, but its odd. 

Edited December 1, 2023 by The Consigliere

[Skinsinparadise]

@RWJ you asked me to list my view of this teams needs, I'll post it here since it belongs here.  I'll start with i absolutely loath working the draft round by round based on needs.  That's what this regime did and i hated it.   

 

Some think I felt differently because I killed them for not taking o line in the first two rounds.  My thing with them with the O line is they did nothing to help the unit this year IMO.  Did little to nothing in FA and did little to nothing in the draft.  And if they do that again, I'll blast them.  And they boxed themselves in where they needed to do something.  So i couldn't let that go. 

 

But I am not a stickler where it has to be this or that.  If they are aggressive in FA for example i am not as driven by the draft.  They don't have to take an O lineman in the first.  Early 2nd is fine.  That would be different than what they did last year where they didn't take a single O lineman that by their admission from the start would help them this year.

 

Having said that, here's the order.  And again this doesn't mean this is how I'd approach the draft round by round.   It's tough for me because all of these positions are close so its another reason why i can easily go BPA.   I''ll rank the intensity of the need from 0-10.  10 being the highest.  I'll add an earty guess as for where they can address it draft or FA.

 

1. RT or LT.  10. Draft

2. LG or C.  i want an interior O lineman. 10. Draft

3. Edge. 10. FA

4.  TE. 9. Draft

5.  Mike LB  9. FA

6.  Ball hawk safety. 8.  FA

7.  CB. 8. Draft

8 .  Tall WR. 8. FA

9. Speedy RB. 7.5. Draft

Edited December 1, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[Riggo#44]

39 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

8 .  Tall WR. 8. FA

Are you thinking what I’m thinking?!

[Skinsinparadise]

21 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Are you thinking what I’m thinking?!

 

Trading for?...

 

 

 

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

@RWJ you asked me to list my view of this teams needs, I'll post it here since it belongs here.  I'll start with i absolutely loath working the draft round by round based on needs.  That's what this regime did and i hated it.   

 

Some think I felt differently because I killed them for not taking o line in the first two rounds.  My thing with them with the O line is they did nothing to help the unit this year IMO.  Did little to nothing in FA and did little to nothing in the draft.  And if they do that again, I'll blast them.  And they boxed themselves in where they needed to do something.  So i couldn't let that go. 

 

But I am not a stickler where it has to be this or that.  If they are aggressive in FA for example i am not as driven by the draft.  They don't have to take an O lineman in the first.  Early 2nd is fine.  That would be different than what they did last year where they didn't take a single O lineman that by their admission from the start would help them this year.

 

Having said that, here's the order.  And again this doesn't mean this is how I'd approach the draft round by round.   It's tough for me because all of these positions are close so its another reason why i can easily go BPA.   I''ll rank the intensity of the need from 0-10.  10 being the highest.  I'll add an earty guess as for where they can address it draft or FA.

 

1. RT or LT.  10. Draft

2. LG or C.  i want an interior O lineman. 10. Draft

3. Edge. 10. FA

4.  TE. 9. Draft

5.  Mike LB  9. FA

6.  Ball hawk safety. 8.  FA

7.  CB. 8. Draft

8 .  Tall WR. 8. FA

9. Speedy RB. 7.5. Draft

Thanks, SIP.  KDawg was talking about the OG Beebe from Duke and I could go for that with our 1st second round pick as we do need OL big time and then comeback with our 3rd pick in the 2nd and nab an EDGE.  I like your list. 

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

Trading for?...

Taller….

[Skinsinparadise]

8 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Taller….

 

 

[Riggo#44]

3 hours ago, The Consigliere said:

I'm pretty alarmed at how non-Redskins/WFT/Commanders fans see him as "whatevs,", I try to keep my biases in check. the dude at theringer ranked him quite low, though adjusted for draft prospects it's around 21st or 22nd. I still see that as too low, most of his measurables suggest he's somewhere between 8th-24th in most categories, he has a few super low one's. Now adjust for ---- show OL, terrible coaching, and bottom 3 pass catching performance, and it probably should be a tick higher, but it is true, most people outside of DC just don't see it, and/or view him as Baker Mayfied Part II. I worry a bit but am still cautiously optimistic.

The Eagles were roundly questioned for ticking with Hurts going into the 2023 season, too. In now way am I saying Howell is Hurts, but the talent is there. Too many people are taking a present view of Howell without any improvement 

1 minute ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Taaaaallllller….

[Skinsinparadise]

9 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

The Eagles were roundly questioned for ticking with Hurts going into the 2023 season, too. In now way am I saying Howell is Hurts, but the talent is there. Too many people are taking a present view of Howell without any improvement 

Taaaaallllller….

 

 

[Riggo#44]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

Keep climbing. Really, really ridiculously tall

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

47 minutes ago, Riggo#44 said:

Keep climbing. Really, really ridiculously tall

 

[Ball Security]

Cam Ward is entering the transfer portal. Not sure if that’s procedural or if he does indeed plan to stay in college. I think it would make sense if he does.

[RVAskins]

30 minutes ago, Sacks &#x27;n&#x27; Stuff said:

 

I was thinking Harold Carmichael too. Perhaps Anthony Mix......