2023 Comprehensive Draft Thread

[Chump Bailey]

I think I've settled on a late round RB I'd love the Commanders to draft or sign.

 

Jordan Mims, Fresno State

[Conn]

Figured this would interest you fellas 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

1 hour ago, Conn said:

Figured this would interest you fellas 

 

I bet having good anchor IOL also matters for the shorter QB's that rely on pocket mobility. They're more likely to try and buy time by having reliable escape lanes rather than the taller comparators who sidestep and can still fire strikes.

 

If so, does that mean pass pro anchor will matter more for us because of Sam Howell?

 

Some QB's just prefer to bail out the back too, and I doubt IOL anchor matters as much for them.

[RandyHolt]

On 4/6/2023 at 5:13 PM, Warhead36 said:

7th in the league in Nickel sets and we currently have two starting quality CBs and one is injury prone. We absolutely need to land a quality CB in this draft.

It seems like we have done fairly well not drafting CBs in the first round in recent years. Both our starters are 3rd rounders and that first you want use on one may end up injury prone as well. Wildgoose a 6th seemed serviceable while we inked a high priced free agent corner a first rounder Will Jackson that was a bad fit. Those that thought he was a good fit are STILL here. I don't trust their judgement regardless know CBs have to fit the big picture puzzle to make the D work.

 

Is free agency absolutely no help? It seems every year I see big names moving for mid round picks. 

 

That all aside again I have NO faith we will use our shiny new first round falsely anointed ball hawk (read: improvisor) corner to their strengths. Lets go offensive stud with our first rounder and support our QBs. QB is the key to unlock the entire team. Spending top picks on our DL for years now including Mathis AGAIN last year and now extending Payne all should afford getting by with serviceable corners. Is that completely wrong to assume that? If drafting need on D we should focus on LB IMO.

Edited April 8, 2023 by RandyHolt

[Warhead36]

I'm fine with drafting offense though I don't like the idea of taking a RB at 16. But we absolutely need to address CB and ideally with a premium pick.

[method man]

13 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I hope they don’t use a Day 1 or Day 2 pick on a backup hybrid safety. Use a pick round 5 and beyond on one

[Going Commando]

15 hours ago, Conn said:

Figured this would interest you fellas 

 

Those are absolutely some of the things I look for, and look for consistency in doing so.  As a run blocker, is the guy explosive enough to get across the face of a DL shaded playside shoulder and reach block him?  Ditto for backside cutoffs.  Those are super difficult blocks that are actually the markers of an elite run blocker, more so than being able to blow guys off the LoS.  Seeing those kinds of blocks is what put me on to Anton Harrison and Wanya Morris and Cody Mauch, and they are why Skoronski is the best run blocker in the class.  It's how I could tell they were high end athletes with elite play speed that would test well at the combine well before the combine came along.  It's also the reason I liked Scherff so much.  I first really started seeing that stuff after Lance Zierlein broke it down in a Matt Wildman RSP episode about Scherff.

 

In pass pro I look for comfort level on the set, flexibility in the legs, coordination of the hands with the feet, hand strength, and markers of reactive athleticism like the ability to mirror rushers who go back inside.  You definitely want to see that ability to grab DLs and "sit down" on them like Scharnecchia spoke of, which is where you can see the OL literally sink his hips and redirect all of that forward power of the DLs rush downward into the ground.  Takes a lot of flexibility and functional strength to do it, and not being able to do it without lunging forward is why I could tell someone like Alex Leatherwood wasn't good, for example.  It's one reason why I love Dawand so much. That dude is a tree but he can extend those arms out and sit down on anyone without leaning his body back into the rusher to generate the counter force. 

 

He also has really good hands.  One of the reasons why I don't like Darnell Wright as much as Dawand is because I don't think he's got strong hands. He snatches down leaning DLs because he is so clever and explosive and has a great feel for when they overextend on rushes, but Darnell has very small hands and I didn't like seeing him being unable to clear Bryan Bresee's hands when he got into Darnell's pads.  That is him going against NFL caliber DL strength and losing.  Dudes like Jonathan Allen are going to tractor Darnell's 330 pound ass right back into the QB if he can't clear their hands when they beat him to the punch.  On the flipside, no one is keeping their hands on Dawand and bull rushing him.  In addition to the size and strength and length, he's also a really savvy hand fighter.

 

Other important rubrics are in the playing demeanor.  You want someone who is aggressive enough to hold his blocks, which is a really unpleasant thing to do and takes some meanness and fight.  You want someone who likes that smoke and even looks for work when he's got no immediate and obvious assignment in his area.  You want someone who will throw his weight around and be a leader on his line, and set the tone of the game for the defenders so that they start avoiding him.  It's the reason I am scared of Broderick Jones even though he shows those great traits like reactive athleticism and great run blocking potential and ability to sink his hips and anchor against inside rushes.  The guy plays really passive and doesn't have the aggressive and active demeanor of a typical first round OL.  It's also another reason I don't like Blake Freeland despite his elite grades and athleticism.  He's really soft and struggles to hold his blocks, plus suffers from a disappointing lack of functional power for a dude his age and with so many starts.  I can forgive Broderick Jones for some passive play since he was pretty inexperienced this season, but after 40 some starts, your playing personality emerges.

 

Those are some of the things I look for anyway, and you also have to develop a feel for how to weight issues.  Rarely do prospects excel at everything, there are always warts.

[Going Commando]

Also wanted to say that I'm a little concerned about the flexibility of O'Cyrus Torrence and JMS.  I thought that there was some stiffness and a lot of crow hopping technique when they were trying to anchor against inside power at the SB, and I see some of it in the Florida cut ups when I watched Richardson.  I think there is some stiffness there, and some difficulty in sinking the hips upon contact.  That's why I ultimately decides that I don't think Torrence should be a first round pick.  In the late 20s and 30s, OK.  But there is no way he'll be even close to BPA at 16.  The only IOL worthy of that range is Skoronski.

[DWinzit]

7 minutes ago, Going Commando said:

Also wanted to say that I'm a little concerned about the flexibility of O'Cyrus Torrence and JMS.  I thought that there was some stiffness and a lot of crow hopping technique when they were trying to anchor against inside power at the SB, and I see some of it in the Florida cut ups when I watched Richardson.  I think there is some stiffness there, and some difficulty in sinking the hips upon contact.  That's why I ultimately decides that I don't think Torrence should be a first round pick.  In the late 20s and 30s, OK.  But there is no way he'll be even close to BPA at 16.  The only IOL worthy of that range is Skoronski.

Skoronski and Johnson right? Not that he'd be there. 

 

Whether I or others agree with you OL takes or not, I love the way you think through and write posts with such passion and insight. 

 

I normally have distinct favorites on the OL at this point. I do have C's that I like but I question any of them being able to man LG also. 

At tackle I not able to grasp the Dawand love but think he would be okay at some point after 16. I feel the same for Harrison which I like more than Wright and Dawand. 

[Daniel.redskins]

If Broderick Jones is there at 16 do we take him?  As much as I like D. Wright and D. Jones, I don't think they can play on the left side and should honestly deserve second round grades.  We have a great situation for Broderick because he can come in and sit for a year behind Leno.  From what I'm reading the o-line experts say if B. Jones was more polished he would be the clear #1 tackle.  

[Going Commando]

31 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

Skoronski and Johnson right? Not that he'd be there. 

 

I just meant among the IOLs, Skoronski is the only one I'd take at 16.  I would definitely take PJ at 16.  I would also take Anton Harrison and Dawand at 16 too.  IMO all three of those guys are tackles with Pro-Bowl upside.  Strong tackle prospects in any year, but for some reason Dawand and Anton are not well loved by draftniks and I don't really understand why.

[Going Commando]

34 minutes ago, DWinzit said:

I normally have distinct favorites on the OL at this point. I do have C's that I like but I question any of them being able to man LG also. 

 

This is an unusually large and good crop of good center-only prospects.  Usually there are only like two guys who are of interest like that, whereas this year most of the centers are center-only guys.  One of the curious things about this OL class is that it is pretty short once you get past a few outliers.  Most of the IOLs are like 6'2 / 6'3 and 300, which is going to fall outside the size parameter for guard for a lot of teams.  Guys like Jordan McFadden are going to have to kick inside to center, but he's interesting there.  So we're about to get a nice big crop of starting caliber centers who are unusually athletic, but they're going to have to find teams with job openings at OC to really take over a starting spot.  It was kind of frustrating seeing all of the center-only prospects in the mock draft thread drafting for a team like Jacksonville, for example.  They've discovered a young mainstay at C who started every snap for them their as a rookie, they aren't moving him for another prospect.  Couldn't draft guys like Stromberg/Olu/JMS/Wypler/McFadden, even though I needed IOL help.

 

A lot of those centers are going to end up going later than expected because of similar roster dynamics around the league.

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[DWinzit]

1 hour ago, Going Commando said:

 

This is an unusually large and good crop of good center-only prospects.  Usually there are only like two guys who are of interest like that, whereas this year most of the centers are center-only guys.  One of the curious things about this OL class is that it is pretty short once you get past a few outliers.  Most of the IOLs are like 6'2 / 6'3 and 300, which is going to fall outside the size parameter for guard for a lot of teams.  Guys like Jordan McFadden are going to have to kick inside to center, but he's interesting there.  So we're about to get a nice big crop of starting caliber centers who are unusually athletic, but they're going to have to find teams with job openings at OC to really take over a starting spot.  It was kind of frustrating seeing all of the center-only prospects in the mock draft thread drafting for a team like Jacksonville, for example.  They've discovered a young mainstay at C who started every snap for them their as a rookie, they aren't moving him for another prospect.  Couldn't draft guys like Stromberg/Olu/JMS/Wypler/McFadden, even though I needed IOL help.

 

A lot of those centers are going to end up going later than expected because of similar roster dynamics around the league.

It is crazy there are so many center-only's. Many of them will easily become starters. It almost makes me wish we had not signed Gates but spent that money on a LT or LG. They could have brought Larsen back, drafted their future starting Center in the 2nd or third round and cut Roullier. 

[Warhead36]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

I could see Buffalo moving up for Bijan. They're in desperate need of talent around Allen on offense and he'd be a perfect fit.

[Skinsinparadise]

33 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

I could see Buffalo moving up for Bijan. They're in desperate need of talent around Allen on offense and he'd be a perfect fit.

 

Looks like keep track of this -- Chiefs, Bills might want to trade up.  Saints seem to like trading up in general.  Ravens want to trade down.  Pretty sure Washington wants to trade down, too.

[Skinsinparadise]

Spent some time on the centers, still have to watch some more but I recall like them all that I ranked even Forsyth.  Tough for me to differentiate between JMS and Tippman and Stromberg.   I favor by a hair JMS for consistency.  The top 3 IMO -- JMS, Tippman, Stromberg are really good across the board, not superstars but are good run blockers and pass blockers, they don't get pushed in the pocket much.  All three bring some punch in the run game.   Tippman might have the most upside of the three.

 

But I like what i consider the next tier too. Wypler, Olu, Forsyth.  I small edge to Wypler for me because he's slightly more consistent and is the better athlete.

 

I highlight the three combine categories that PFF considers the most important based on historical success.   the players in bold are ones this team met with.

 

 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

Looks like keep track of this -- Chiefs, Bills might want to trade up.  Saints seem to like trading up in general.  Ravens want to trade down.  Pretty sure Washington wants to trade down, too.

I’m currently all in favour of that trade back. All the way back to 31 is fine by me. If we could add an extra 2nd and 3rd for example. Clearly you likely take the ‘stud’ at #16.

[Warhead36]

What are the chances one of the first round caliber OTs drops to 31? I'm sure all the CBs will be taken but OT I'm not so sure. There are some good ones but they're all kinda raw-ish. 

[Skinsinparadise]

5 hours ago, Going Commando said:

 

The guy plays really passive and doesn't have the aggressive and active demeanor of a typical first round OL.  It's also another reason I don't like Blake Freeland despite his elite grades and athleticism.  He's really soft and struggles to hold his blocks, plus suffers from a disappointing lack of functional power for a dude his age and with so many starts.  I can forgive Broderick Jones for some passive play since he was pretty inexperienced this season, but after 40 some starts, your playing personality emerges.

 

Those are some of the things I look for anyway, and you also have to develop a feel for how to weight issues.  Rarely do prospects excel at everything, there are always warts.

 

Great post by @Conn as to O line attributes and follow up from @Going Commando

 

To add a little to that, I was listening to Ross Tucker who played O line and Cosell who talked to a number of O line coaches about what they look for.

 

Interior O line

 

A. Toughness and smarts key.  He said he knew O lineman who played well on one on one in drills but when you put them as part of a unit with moving parts -- dealing with stunts, doubling up with other players, etc they were a beat behind. 

 

B.  To play off of point A.  As for smarts -- fast processing -- they want you to see it quickly and react and you follow your right assignment.

 

C.  Consistency.  Coaches hate dudes who blow assignments.   They implied don't like up and down players even if the ups are great

 

D.  Understanding how to use leverage in the run game, including redirecting to match if the runner is shifting their direction

 

E.  O lineman who are late with their hands or need to improve how they set -- O line coaches think they can teach that and improve that in college players to the pros

 

F. With guard-centers they like the ones who are competitive, feisty, play like a dog.  Its a rough war in the trenches, they (o line coaches) like those who play with a lot of fight, dudes who compete on every play. 

 

Tackle wasn't a lot different but one point Tucker said is its rare to have elite tackles who aren't elite athletes.  So he bets some on athleticism on that spot.  For the taller blockers how do they use their leverage, lateral movement skills

 

For me, I do look for players who can hold the pocket.   Though i'll give some props to O lineman who get pushed some but still don't collapse against some of the better pass rushers and allow the sack or hurry.  So I tend to grade on a curve on that front.  I am ok with O lineman who might lose the battle but win the war -- which is how i felt for example when Van Ness faced Paris Johnson.  Van Ness pushed the pocket, but Paris mostly held his own.   

 

As for mirroring, for me I like O lineman who can keep the defender square as much as possible versus allowing the defender to get to their outside shoulder where they start losing leverage.   I figure if that as a habit happens a lot with an O lineman, I think eventually it will do them in when they face a really good pass rusher.   It's part of the reason why I got turned off Jon Gaines -- especially considering in the games I watched he wasn't facing killer pass rushers.     So while I love the athleticism he has to me his pass protecting has some red flag components to it.

 

I like Darnell Wright overall.  But my issue with him is a different than @Going Commando which is his balance.  As far as core tightness-stiff hips one sign of it beyond seeing how easy they sink their hips is to see their balance on the move. 

 

On that front the top centers in this class, to different degrees, as much as I like them have some hip stiffness, they end up on the rear end on a bunch of plays when blocking on the moves or when longing at a defender if they get to their outside shoulder.  They have plenty of other good triats though to offset that but its just something in the soup.  As far the better centers, they all really are good at holding the pocket, and they seem smart as far as helping with double teams, etc, among other attributes.

 

I have become personally famiiar with core stiffness -- had two different hernia surgeries on both sides just above my hip during my life time.  So I've been working with a friend who is a physical therapist-personal trainer helping me improve my core strength and flexibility -- a lot of work on my lower body in the process.   And I know from the research and my own exercises -- your ability to maintain your balance on the move in different forms is one of the tests of having good core flexibility versus stiffness.

Edited April 8, 2023 by Skinsinparadise

[KillBill26]

3 hours ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

 

16 for 27 and 59 is an almost perfect swap on the trade value chart - 1000 vs 990 (16th pick is the more valuable side).

 

www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Edited April 8, 2023 by KillBill26

[HoggLife]

32 minutes ago, KillBill26 said:

16 for 27 and 59 is an almost perfect swap on the trade value chart - 1000 vs 990 (16th pick is the more valuable side).

 

www.drafttek.com/NFL-Trade-Value-Chart.asp

Then use our 3rd comp pick with 59 to move back up into the 40s and have 3 picks in top 47. We would get good players at OL, CB and TE. 

[Warhead36]

Trade value chart is a bit outdated these days. I feel like we should get a smidge more for that far of a drop. Maybe an additional 4th or something. 

[Est.1974]

1 hour ago, HoggLife said:

Then use our 3rd comp pick with 59 to move back up into the 40s and have 3 picks in top 47. We would get good players at OL, CB and TE. 

We could swap 16 and 97 with NO and end with 29,40,47