2021 Playoff Tracker Thread

[Cooleyfan1993]

52 minutes ago, SAli457180 said:

Given that they're 10th in the NFC and have to overtake multiple teams to get in, Yes.  A long shot at best.

Seeing as how the saints have to start a 4th string rookie QB on MNF, and the Vikings play the rams and packers, it’s not crazy to think the Vikings go 0-2, and the saints lose to the dolphins. And the falcons aren’t just going to lay down in the final week either, against the saints...

 

IF we can win the rematch against Dallas, we have a good chance. 

[NoVaSkins21]

3 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

Seeing as how the saints have to start a 4th string rookie QB on MNF, and the Vikings play the rams and packers, it’s not crazy to think the Vikings go 0-2, and the saints lose to the dolphins. And the falcons aren’t just going to lay down in the final week either, against the saints...

 

IF we can win the rematch against Dallas, we have a good chance. 

Losing to the Saints really hurts.  They may lose to Miami, but I don't see them going on a losing streak vs the Falcons and the Panthers.  It's possible, but not likely.

[Cooleyfan1993]

15 minutes ago, SAli457180 said:

Losing to the Saints really hurts.  They may lose to Miami, but I don't see them going on a losing streak vs the Falcons and the Panthers.  It's possible, but not likely.

It’s possible. Which is why we are still in the playoff race. And as this season has shown us, any given Sunday. 

[kingdaddy]

Win tomorrow night and we run the table.....I just don't see that happening though. We are limping in and virtually out of bullets while on life support. Heinicke will have to turn into a 25 year old Fran Tarkenton to pull out a win tomorrow night.

[kleese]

10 hours ago, Peregrine said:

Whats true is not true?  Strange take.  Its absolutely true we have to win out to go to the playoffs, the fact we cant be eliminated with 2 weeks left is meaningless.  The fact that Eagles, Saints, and Vikings would all have to go 1-2 is the reason why.

Well, if we win out, it automatically means Philly has one loss— so they’d then need to lose to either the Giants OR the Cowboys. 
 

And is your confidence level high that Minnesota will beat the Rams tomorrow and win in Lambeau next week? Even if we concede the Bears game to them in week 18? 
 

The Saints going 1-2 is the biggest stretch there, but they are underdogs Monday Night, starting Ian Book at QB. 
 

The odds of us getting in at 8-9 aren’t great. However, it would NOT take some crazy set of miracle scenarios either. So in fact, as of right now, we do not need to win out to make the playoffs. Do our odds nosedive if we lose tomorrow? Yes. 

[kleese]

OK, I think we can call this one, so moving on now to the 8-9 scenarios. Thankfully, there aren’t any 7-10 scenarios so we can enter into next week saying definitively it’s a “must win.” 
 

Rather than get super specific right now about how we make the playoffs (I’ll do that later in the week) I’ll focus right now on something a bit more simple— what do we need in week 17 in order to still be alive entering week 18? 
 

Believe it or not, we don’t need much. 
 

The big key is the Dolphins-Saints game tomorrow: 

 

If the Saints lose to Miami, then all we need to do is beat the Eagles and we will remain alive entering week 18 regardless of any other outcomes week 17. It’s that simple. 
 

If the Saints beat the Dolphins, then we would need some additional help. 
 

Considering that game is less than 24 hours away, I’ll just wait and see what happens there. Once it’s over, I’ll update it again. 
 

But if you still care to hope, then root for Miami Monday Night. 
 

 

 

[BleedBNG]

This article has it laid out

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/washingtons-4-chance-reach-playoffs-includes-7-unlikely-paths

[Stefanskins]

1 hour ago, BleedBNG said:

This article has it laid out

 

https://www.nbcsports.com/washington/football-team/washingtons-4-chance-reach-playoffs-includes-7-unlikely-paths

SCENARIO #1 – Washington gets No. 6 seed, Saints/49ers/Vikings/Falcons at No. 7

49ers LOSE out (vs. HOU, at LAR)

Falcons LOSE one of two (at BUF, vs. NO)

Eagles LOSE out (at WSH, vs. DAL)
Vikings LOSE one of two (at GB, vs. CHI)

 

I know…I know…but does this sound plausible…I mean more than a 4% chance…we just need Dallas to have something to play for against the eagles…

[88Comrade2000]

You do know when we get our 10th loss that kills all scenarios.

[kleese]

Alright, here we go… the Saints loss tonight really makes it fun if you are a playoff sceneries nerd because now it really doesn’t take crazy gymnastics to get us in. We absolutely need help, but it isn’t the kind of help that requires a series of insane or even unlikely outcomes. 
 

I will lay it out as simply as possible: 

 

First of all, we cannot get in without 8 wins. A tie is the same as a loss as it relates to us in the playoffs. So we MUST go 2-0 and we will be eliminated with the next loss/tie regardless of everything else. So…in all the discussion moving forward it ASSUMES we win the next two. So I’m not going to continually include that— it has to happen, so just assume it. And where NBC has it wrong is it’s only a 4% chance if you also include our outcomes. If you grant us the things we can control, I’d say our odds of getting in are probably closer to 40% based on what else would need to happen. 
 

I look at this in two ways right now: 

 

1. How do we actually make the playoffs?

2. What is needed to stay alive entering week 18? 
 

Let’s start with the easier one. What do we need to happen this week to stay alive heading to the Giants game. This is a simple answer. We need ONE of the following three outcomes: 

 

Falcons lose in Buffalo 

Saints lose to Panthers 

49ers lose to Texans 

 

If ONE of those outcomes occurs, we will be alive entering week 18. Period. So if that’s all you care about for now, you can stop reading. 
 

Sticking with this theme, let’s look at the ideal pie-in-the-sky scenario, and then the more realistic scenario. 
 

Pie-in-the-sky

 

Falcons, 49ers, Saints, Vikings (at Packers) all lose next week. If that happened we’d enter week 18 with two WC slots still open. We’d need a win over Giants and EITHER a 49ers loss at Rams OR an Eagles loss at Cowboys (not both). Outcomes of other games would not matter. 
 

More realistic scenario 

 

Falcons lose in Buffalo, 49ers and Saints win, Vikings lose at Packers. This would clinch for 49ers and leave one spot open. Then in week 18 we would need the Eagles to lose to Cowboys AND Saints to lose at Falcons. This is the scenario I am predicting— and it wouldn’t be a terrible one for us. If Dallas beats Arizona this week they guarantee they will be alive for #1 seed entering the Philly game. Atlanta would be eliminated, but it’s a division game, they generally play Saints tough, Saints offense is dreadful, it’s in Atlanta, and there would be no reason for the Falcons to just lay down and not try against a division rival— they’d play it like their Super Bowl. What is unknown to me is let’s say Dallas loses to Cardinals and #1 seed isn’t on table— would they play for seeding or not care? I would think having home field in round 2 would be desirable, but hard to say how they would handle that. One thing seems for sure— unless the Texans beat SF, we are going to need Dallas to beat Philly. 
 

Now let’s say the above scenario plays out except the Saints lose. In that case we’d ONLY need the Eagles to lose week 18 with one small twist— we’d either need Atlanta OR Minnesota to actually win so we avoid a three-way tie with Saints and Eagles which is only multi-team tie-breaker we’d lose. 
 

This is really it for now. 
 

The actual schedule plays out pretty nicely for us. 
 

We play the early game next week. Falcons do as well. Obviously if we lose, then we are done and we won’t be wasting any time or energy rooting against others the rest of the way. If our game and the Falcons game go our way then we will be guaranteed to be alive entering week 18 before the late Sunday games even kickoff. We’d then sit back and root against the Niners, Saints, and Vikings. If you REALLY wanted Dallas to be motivated for week 18 then I guess you could root for the Vikings to beat Packers, but then we’d likely need Bears to beat Vikings the next week. Odds seem better with Vikings just taking the loss at Lambeau and taking our chances that Dallas will play it out in Philly. 

[method man]

48 minutes ago, kleese said:

Alright, here we go… the Saints loss tonight really makes it fun if you are a playoff sceneries nerd because now it really doesn’t take crazy gymnastics to get us in. We absolutely need help, but it isn’t the kind of help that requires a series of insane or even unlikely outcomes. 
 

I will lay it out as simply as possible: 

 

First of all, we cannot get in without 8 wins. A tie is the same as a loss as it relates to us in the playoffs. So we MUST go 2-0 and we will be eliminated with the next loss/tie regardless of everything else. So…in all the discussion moving forward it ASSUMES we win the next two. So I’m not going to continually include that— it has to happen, so just assume it. And where NBC has it wrong is it’s only a 4% chance if you also include our outcomes. If you grant us the things we can control, I’d say our odds of getting in are probably closer to 40% based on what else would need to happen. 
 

I look at this in two ways right now: 

 

1. How do we actually make the playoffs?

2. What is needed to stay alive entering week 18? 
 

Let’s start with the easier one. What do we need to happen this week to stay alive heading to the Giants game. This is a simple answer. We need ONE of the following three outcomes: 

 

Falcons lose in Buffalo 

Saints lose to Panthers 

49ers lose to Texans 

 

If ONE of those outcomes occurs, we will be alive entering week 18. Period. So if that’s all you care about for now, you can stop reading. 
 

Sticking with this theme, let’s look at the ideal pie-in-the-sky scenario, and then the more realistic scenario. 
 

Pie-in-the-sky

 

Falcons, 49ers, Saints, Vikings (at Packers) all lose next week. If that happened we’d enter week 18 with two WC slots still open. We’d need a win over Giants and EITHER a 49ers loss at Rams OR an Eagles loss at Cowboys (not both). Outcomes of other games would not matter. 
 

More realistic scenario 

 

Falcons lose in Buffalo, 49ers and Saints win, Vikings lose at Packers. This would clinch for 49ers and leave one spot open. Then in week 18 we would need the Eagles to lose to Cowboys AND Saints to lose at Falcons. This is the scenario I am predicting— and it wouldn’t be a terrible one for us. If Dallas beats Arizona this week they guarantee they will be alive for #1 seed entering the Philly game. Atlanta would be eliminated, but it’s a division game, they generally play Saints tough, Saints offense is dreadful, it’s in Atlanta, and there would be no reason for the Falcons to just lay down and not try against a division rival— they’d play it like their Super Bowl. What is unknown to me is let’s say Dallas loses to Cardinals and #1 seed isn’t on table— would they play for seeding or not care? I would think having home field in round 2 would be desirable, but hard to say how they would handle that. One thing seems for sure— unless the Texans beat SF, we are going to need Dallas to beat Philly. 
 

Now let’s say the above scenario plays out except the Saints lose. In that case we’d ONLY need the Eagles to lose week 18 with one small twist— we’d either need Atlanta OR Minnesota to actually win so we avoid a three-way tie with Saints and Eagles which is only multi-team tie-breaker we’d lose. 
 

This is really it for now. 
 

The actual schedule plays out pretty nicely for us. 
 

We play the early game next week. Falcons do as well. Obviously if we lose, then we are done and we won’t be wasting any time or energy rooting against others the rest of the way. If our game and the Falcons game go our way then we will be guaranteed to be alive entering week 18 before the late Sunday games even kickoff. We’d then sit back and root against the Niners, Saints, and Vikings. If you REALLY wanted Dallas to be motivated for week 18 then I guess you could root for the Vikings to beat Packers, but then we’d likely need Bears to beat Vikings the next week. Odds seem better with Vikings just taking the loss at Lambeau and taking our chances that Dallas will play it out in Philly. 

 

Depending on what is up with Jimmy G's hand, if Lance has to play, I think the Texans-9ers game will be a lot closer than we think. Mills has been playing well the past few games. Let's also see what happens with the Saints QB situation. All hope is not lost with the Panthers-Saints either. The Panthers have fallen off a cliff since the start of the season but they did smash the Saints early in the season. It is going to be a one dimensional game with both teams pounding the ball. We can just cross our fingers here and hope for the best.

 

I know it was a terrible loss to the Cowboys but all hope is not lost. Scherff, Holcomb and Davis will all be back for Sunday and Miles Sanders is out for the Eagles. Their rushing attack is not as scary with Sanders out as he is the big play guy in that backfield. Furthermore, it is clear Hurts's ankle is still bothering him and he hasn't run like he has pre injury. 

[kleese]

4 hours ago, method man said:

 

Depending on what is up with Jimmy G's hand, if Lance has to play, I think the Texans-9ers game will be a lot closer than we think. Mills has been playing well the past few games. Let's also see what happens with the Saints QB situation. All hope is not lost with the Panthers-Saints either. The Panthers have fallen off a cliff since the start of the season but they did smash the Saints early in the season. It is going to be a one dimensional game with both teams pounding the ball. We can just cross our fingers here and hope for the best.

 

I know it was a terrible loss to the Cowboys but all hope is not lost. Scherff, Holcomb and Davis will all be back for Sunday and Miles Sanders is out for the Eagles. Their rushing attack is not as scary with Sanders out as he is the big play guy in that backfield. Furthermore, it is clear Hurts's ankle is still bothering him and he hasn't run like he has pre injury. 

And as we’ve seen all year in the NFL, there are absolutely no guarantees for any team on any given week. And yes, Texans are legitimately playing well. My personal feeling/prediction is that that game is not going to go our way even if Jimmy G is out. I sort of “trust” Kyle in that situation to scheme up enough. Even if Houston plays them tough, I think Niners grind it out. Spread is -13 for a reason (again even with QB uncertainty). 
 

I feel a bit better about Carolina— division game and I don’t think Panthers are quite as bad as they’ve looked lately. Hoping Darnold plays. They are also having Covid issues— maybe the new five day isolation stuff will help there. But NOLA’s offense is just dreadful now, making no game for them a gimmie at all. 
 

Here is what I personally THINK happens: 

 

We beat Philly (I truly believe this and I’ll be putting my money where my mouth is on it BTW). I love this spot for us and I REALLY love it as a gambler at +3.5. I also think Buffalo handles Atlanta— perhaps easily. So I think entering the late window Sunday we will have already clinched staying alive. I then think neither the Niners or Saints games go our way— maybe tight, but both SF and NOLA pull it out. Then Packers hang on to beat Vikings Sunday Night. 
 

If my predictions come to fruition 100% (probably unlikely), we’d be left with the following week 18 scenario: 

 

—Beat Giants 

—Need Saints to lose in Atl

—Need Eagles to lose vs Dallas

 

My “goal” for Sunday would be for either SF or NOLA to also lose. Let’s say SF wins, NOLA loses, then we’d need:

 

—Beat Giants 

—Need Eagles to lose vs Dallas

—Need either Saints to lose in Atl OR Vikings to beat Bears 

 

Now let’s say NOLA wins and SF loses, we’d need: 

 

—Beat Giants 

—Need Eagles to lose vs Dallas OR 49ers to lose at Rams. If the Eagles lost and 49ers won, we’d then need either the Saints to lose OR Vikings to win. 
 

If it ALL goes our way, Falcons, Saints, Niners, Vikings lose, we’d need: 

 

—Beat Giants 

—Only way we would NOT get in would be in Niners and Eagles both win their games and Vikings lose to Bears. Or something like that 😁

[CobraCommander]

 

I did the math, it ain’t happening. Please join us over in the draft position thread for some reality. 😂

[kleese]

26 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

 

I did the math, it ain’t happening. Please join us over in the draft position thread for some reality. 😂

 
Ha, it’s like The Outsiders. 
 

This thread is definitely The Greasers. Not siding with you Socs.

[CobraCommander]

21 minutes ago, kleese said:

 
Ha, it’s like The Outsiders. 
 

This thread is definitely The Greasers. Not siding with you Socs.

I hip to that reference. The greasers cried way too much for my taste. Stay gold, Ponyboy. 

[kleese]

9 minutes ago, Florgon79 said:

I hip to that reference. The greasers cried way too much for my taste. Stay gold, Ponyboy. 

It just seems like The Greasers would stay and fight for the playoffs while the Socs would tuck tail and run to next year…

 

(I grew up in Tulsa by the way where that movie was set/filmed- house is a mini museum now) 

Edited December 28, 2021 by kleese

[DCdangerous]

Even with the NO loss to MIA, I don't see NO losing to CAR and ATL. This is the real wishful thinking because I think NO will get their players back from COVID.

I think the only way WSH can make it to the playoffs now is if more than two NFC teams end with an 8-9 record.  That way our Conference record will beat all of them.
In order for that to happen is with the following:
WSH wins out
SF lose out

     -They will definitely lose to LAR in Wk 18, but I think with David Mills doing well and Garrapolo with an injured thumb, it is possible HOU will beat SF)

PHI lose out (After we beat PHI in Wk 17, I am sure DAL will beat PHI in Wk 18)

MIN lose one more game (they will definitely lose to GB)

[kleese]

6 minutes ago, DCdangerous said:

Even with the NO loss to MIA, I don't see NO losing to CAR and ATL. This is the real wishful thinking because I think NO will get their players back from COVID.

I think the only way WSH can make it to the playoffs now is if more than two NFC teams end with an 8-9 record.  That way our Conference record will beat all of them.
In order for that to happen is with the following:
WSH wins out
SF lose out

     -They will definitely lose to LAR in Wk 18, but I think with David Mills doing well and Garrapolo with an injured thumb, it is possible HOU will beat SF)

PHI lose out (After we beat PHI in Wk 17, I am sure DAL will beat PHI in Wk 18)

MIN lose one more game (they will definitely lose to GB)

Saints don’t need to lose twice— once would do in almost all scenarios. 
 

The one thing we know for sure, if the Niners and Eagles BOTH win one more, we can’t make it. We need one of those two teams to lose out. Of course we play Philly, so for them, what we are talking about isn’t so much losing twice— just need them to lose to Dallas. 

[DCdangerous]

3 minutes ago, kleese said:

Saints don’t need to lose twice— once would do in almost all scenarios.

I just think the odds are in favor of NO not losing again.
CAR and ATL both are not good enough to beat NO.
HOU beat Herbert's LAC. I think they are capable of beating SF.

[kleese]

Just now, DCdangerous said:

I just think the odds are in favor of NO not losing again.
CAR and ATL both are not good enough to beat NO.
HOU beat Herbert's LAC. I think they are capable of beating SF.

Saints offense (even with Hill) is dreadful. Their defense is very good. But when you are that bad on one side of the ball I don’t think it’s safe to assume back to back division wins— especially that Falcons game. 

[88Comrade2000]

This will be settled Sunday at Fed Ex and I think we get eliminated.

[LetThePointsSoar]

So IF and I mean it's a BIG IF.... But IF we win out plus Dallas beats Philly in week 18, then we're in?  Am I reading that correctly? 

[Cooleyfan1993]

1 hour ago, LetThePointsSoar said:

So IF and I mean it's a BIG IF.... But IF we win out plus Dallas beats Philly in week 18, then we're in?  Am I reading that correctly? 

Plus a couple of teams going either 1-1 or 0-2 or something like that. We’d need help from a couple of other teams. If we lose Sunday, we’re eliminated officially 

 

EDIT: wanted to make it clear, after Sunday’s debacle of a game, I’m no longer even predicting playoffs, if we beat Philly on Sunday, yay. If we lose, oh well. I’ll let these last two games play out however they play out. 

Edited December 30, 2021 by Cooleyfan1993

[Spearfeather]

On 12/28/2021 at 10:42 AM, DCdangerous said:

I just think the odds are in favor of NO not losing again.
CAR and ATL both are not good enough to beat NO.
 

 

Just noting that Carolina and Atlanta have beaten NO once already this year.

Carolina game wasn't really close.

 

May not happen again, but ...

[Voice_of_Reason]

3 hours ago, Cooleyfan1993 said:

I’ll let these last two games play out however they play out. 

Did you really have any other choice?