The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[illone]

14 minutes ago, mistertim said:

JJ was also asked to do far less and was surrounded by a dominant team. 

 

 

Another false narrative bandied about by folks who don't follow college football close enough.  Michigan had a very talented roster, but were lacking in pass catcher talent hence they relied on their oline and running game a lot. More than anything they played like a team, were well coached, and had JJ to bail them out on 3rd down all year. (JJ was the best 3rd down QB in college football, another stat that NFL teams care about).  So to make a sweeping statement like this proves nothing even though I know you are doing it to try to diminish JJ.

 

 

14 minutes ago, mistertim said:

As far as the arm thing...so if Colt McCoy has a higher completion percentage than Patrick Mahomes does that mean he has more arm talent? 

 

 

Nice strawman fallacy.  Seeing as though you conveniently ignored the other numbers I posted I'm just gonna leave this one alone 😂

 

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, illone said:

 

 

Another false narrative bandied about by folks who don't follow college football close enough.  Michigan had a very talented roster, but were lacking in pass catcher talent hence they relied on their oline and running game a lot. More than anything they played like a team, were well coached, and had JJ to bail them out on 3rd down all year. (JJ was the best 3rd down QB in college football, another stat that NFL teams care about).  So to make a sweeping statement like this proves nothing even though I know you are doing it to try to diminish JJ.

 

 

Nice strawman fallacy.  Seeing as though you conveniently ignored the other numbers I posted I'm just gonna leave this one alone 😂

 

 

It's not a "narrative", it's a fact. He had to pass much less than other top QBs because his team had a great running game and OL plus a dominant defense. You can try to spin it however you want, but it's the truth. It's also much easier to be efficient on 3rd down when you're surrounded by that same great OL and running game. And you know all of this.

 

As far as arm talent, you directly correlated completion percentage with it. So is it correlated or isn't it? You can't have it both ways.

[Llevron]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

My bad brother. It is my 4 day birthday weekend and I am literally hammered AF. Carry on. 

Happy Birthday homie 

[Dah-Dee]

45 minutes ago, illone said:

(JJ was the best 3rd down QB in college football, another stat that NFL teams care about). 

 

 

*Jayden Daniels' mom has once again entered the chat, with a stick*

 

 

[zCommander]

3 hours ago, Dah-Dee said:

Can people please make up their minds, are the Commanders getting Josh Allen 2.0, or Andrew Luck 2.0, we need to know:

 

 

I hope neither. I want a QB who can take the team to a SB instead. 

[e16bball]

1 hour ago, Dexter said:

I do know Daniels was excellent at Arizona State and has progressed every year.  He beat #6 Oregon as a true freshman and has always protected the ball and has been a real playmaker.

The bolded is just patently untrue.

 

That Oregon game was the high point of his career until the last 10 games. His next 3 seasons were, at best, totally stagnant. Many would say he “regressed,” particularly in his 3rd season, when he threw 10 picks to match his 10 TDs.

 

He was a legit prospect after that excellent freshman year. Then he basically disappeared from the radar for 3 seasons. Glad he finished so strong…he seems like a nice kid. But he absolutely did not “progress every year.”

[alaroche04]

the Jayden Daniels fans are losing their minds. I think they're coming to grips with reality now.

[mistertim]

5 minutes ago, alaroche04 said:

the Jayden Daniels fans are losing their minds. I think they're coming to grips with reality now.

 

I think we've lost most of the McCarthy Marauders, but it looks like @illoneis holding down the fort nicely.   

[Dah-Dee]

5 minutes ago, e16bball said:

The bolded is just patently untrue.

 

That Oregon game was the high point of his career until the last 10 games. His next 3 seasons were, at best, totally stagnant. Many would say he “regressed,” particularly in his 3rd season, when he threw 10 picks to match his 10 TDs.

 

He was a legit prospect after that excellent freshman year. Then he basically disappeared from the radar for 3 seasons. Glad he finished so strong…he seems like a nice kid. But he absolutely did not “progress every year.”

 

I agree Daniels did not progress each year.

 

I think it's the general consensus pretty much everywhere that college players in all sports get a pass for the (at-best) truncated 2020 season, so I don't really 'count' that for Daniels.

 

2021 was indeed a rough year for him, both on and off the football field (e.g., both grandparents died, a month apart, from covid in 2021); but it's true he didn't play well. 

 

2022 was actually a pretty good season for Daniels, and in fact it's so similar to his freshman year statwise that if we consider that an "excellent" season then 2022 certainly qualifies as well, especially with the upset win over Alabama and the general context of playing against tougher competition in the SEC.

 

Also agree with your sentiment about being glad he finished strong, and being a good kid. I hope he does really well in the NFL, including staying healthy.... somewhere else. Minnesota would be fun to watch with him throwing to Jefferson. Ditto for Vegas and Adams. Just not Washington.

 

[e16bball]

51 minutes ago, illone said:

Another false narrative bandied about by folks who don't follow college football close enough.  Michigan had a very talented roster, but were lacking in pass catcher talent hence they relied on their oline and running game a lot.

Yeah, those of us who “don’t follow college football enough” have been fooled into thinking that Michigan had pass-catching talent. That a Day 2 receiver (Wilson), a Day 3 receiver (Johnson), a Day 3 tight end (Barner), a likely Day 2 tight end next year (Loveland), and the best RB duo in the country (both of whom were weapons in the pass game) is a strong group. Most college teams have 6 surefire upper-class draft picks at the skill positions to throw to.

 

You’re 100% right that they leaned on their OL and run game a lot. That was their calling card. Moreso than any elite team since the Jalen Hurts Bama team, probably. They had a special group, and everything you said that I didn’t quote is true — well-coached, cohesive team, good leaders, all that stuff. And that includes McCarthy.

 

But again, there are those of us among the uneducated masses who think maybe one of the main reasons they didn’t totally trust their passing game, even in big situations, is because their QB singlehandedly put 14 points on the board for a grossly inferior TCU team in last year’s CFP Semis and dug them a hole too deep to escape.

[mistertim]

3 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

 

I agree Daniels did not progress each year.

 

I think it's the general consensus pretty much everywhere that college players in all sports get a pass for the (at-best) truncated 2020 season, so I don't really 'count' that for Daniels.

 

2021 was indeed a rough year for him, both on and off the football field (e.g., both grandparents died, a month apart, from covid in 2021); but it's true he didn't play well. 

 

2022 was actually a pretty good season for Daniels, and in fact it's so similar to his freshman year statwise that if we consider that an "excellent" season then 2022 certainly qualifies as well, especially with the upset win over Alabama and the general context of playing against tougher competition in the SEC.

 

Also agree with your sentiment about being glad he finished strong, and being a good kid. I hope he does really well in the NFL, including staying healthy.... somewhere else. Minnesota would be fun to watch with him throwing to Jefferson. Ditto for Vegas and Adams. Just not Washington.

 

 

But an "excellent season" for a freshman is different than for a senior. 17 TDs and 2 INTs for a true freshman is excellent. For a senior it's more meh.

[Dah-Dee]

1 minute ago, mistertim said:

 

But an "excellent season" for a freshman is different than for a senior. 17 TDs and 2 INTs for a true freshman is excellent. For a senior it's more meh.

 

I have previously called Daniels' 2022 season "good, not great" and I'll stand by that, looking at his entire production that also included just under 900 yards rushing and 11 more TDs. Was just using "excellent" per the prior description of his 2019.

[e16bball]

5 minutes ago, Dah-Dee said:

2022 was actually a pretty good season for Daniels, and in fact it's so similar to his freshman year statwise that if we consider that an "excellent" season then 2022 certainly qualifies as well, especially with the upset win over Alabama and the general context of playing against tougher competition in the SEC.

2022 is a weird season to evaluate, I feel like. 
 

I’m totally on board with cutting him some slack there, given new teammates and coaching and playbook (and zip code). Definite step up in competition. And you have to like 17 TDs to 3 picks.

 

But he was just SO gunshy, presumably in large part due to uncertainty. He just wouldn’t let the ball fly, which is clear when you watch him but even just in the numbers. The 2022 pressure to sack ratio is deeply disturbing, and 7.5 Y/A with those playmakers is just awful — that number placed him squarely between Kedon Slovis (Pitt) and Graham Mertz (Wisconsin), among noteworthy names, neither of whom should be drafted at all.

 

It wasn’t a bad season. But it’s probably comparable (at best) to his freshman year on its face — and I think the step up in competition is more than balanced out by the fact that he was a senior and a 4th-year starter (as compared to a true freshman). He was fine, but I still think it was mostly just plateaued from where he was in 2019. Which I think was the case right up until the day he absolutely destroyed Grambling and the light bulb went on (in a major, major way).

[clskinsfan]

All of you. Look closely at this. IT IS OVER.

 

 

6'4 and 227 pounds.....Yeah. Its over.

[HTTRDynasty]

 

[Jags]

3 hours ago, Dexter said:

Maye regressed this year

 

Did he regress or did the offense overall?  I think a lot of people would argue that throwing for 300 yards and 2 touchdowns per game is pretty good for a QB dealing with the installation of a new offense and a significant downgrade in both receiving and O-line talent.  I mean, which season means more when you consider the transition they're about to make to shaky NFL teams:  The guy who played in God Mode with a stacked offensive roster in his 5th year or the guy who adapted and dealt with a lot of adversity switching offenses and dealing with lackluster talent around him in his 2nd year?

 

Daniels played versus superior talent, so that mitigates it a bit, but Maye just had a college year very similar to the year he's about to have if the team that drafts him has him start.  Showing he could still thrive despite a new offense and weak O-line isn't nothing considering that's exactly what he's likely to be dealing with this year in the NFL.

 

I'm certainly no expert, and I'm torn as to which guy figures to be better, but while figuring out how I feel about each candidate I've found that it helps to be honest.  I don't think Maye regressed at all.  I think he did the best he could despite the team around him disintegrating significantly year-to-year.  

[illone]

36 minutes ago, mistertim said:

 

I think we've lost most of the McCarthy Marauders, but it looks like @illoneis holding down the fort nicely.   

 

"mauraders"?

 

No way dude, if I am by myself I get to slap my own sign up.

 

For now, let's just go with "Camp JJ" until I can think of something better.

 

 

I've got a warm fire with enough smores, gin, and all-beef hotdogs to last a few years out here...

 

So back to your little colt mccoy strawman. By the way Colt is a good comp for Bo Nix, but I digress...

 

Not even sure why you brought that guy into the discussion.

 

I was comparing Maye to JJ.

 

In college. 

 

That's it.

 

JJ is superior to Maye in several metrics that are related to arm talent. Accuracy is important. In college, JJ has been a more accurate passer than Maye, and has a better TD to Int ratio, and blows every other QB in college football AWAY on 3rd and long situations.

 

If you want to contend that 3rd down execution can be removed from the discussion, I'd buy that since maybe that falls under the "talent" column and not "arm talent".

 

So if you are isolating that Maye can throw a deeper ball than JJ, then I'd agree. Perhaps he can throw it faster? Not sure if that is even worth quantifying.  I think JJ threw 61 mph at the combine?

 

But bottom line for me, McCarthy is a better football player than Drake Maye is right now. JJ executes at a higher level and is a more accurate passer than Maye.

[FootballZombie]

I thought Maye had a good season in 2023, but clearly it was not as good as his 2022 campaign.

 

His film was so much better to me in 2022 and new problems arose in 2023 that I did not see in the previous years film to the same extent. I'd be hard pressed to say he did anything other than take a bit of a step back overall, even if his 2022 was good, simply b/c his 2023 was great.

 

The problem, as with all these issues, is that even if you believe there is a reason for this, like the drop in team quality, it does not change what happened and it again does not allow the assertion of an opposite reality. That is wishcasting. You are what you are until you prove otherwise and that is as true for Maye as it is for any prospect.

 

He's still a blue-chip prospect, but I'm not gonna pretend things that happened didn't occur.

[Tress Is The Way]

Maye the force be with you

[Est.1974]

2 hours ago, illone said:

 

But bottom line for me, McCarthy is a better football player than Drake Maye is right now. JJ executes at a higher level and is a more accurate passer than Maye.

Not sure I’d fully agree, but I’ll buy into the notion it’s very close. And much closer than people give JJ credit for. It’s all about what the respective teams around the league project as each prospects ultimate ceiling, and realistic timeline of progression required IMO.

 

[KDawg]

I am really struggling why propping up the guy you want means taking shots at the other guys… 

 

One poster made a great post and then took a shot at McCarthy because of bad passes in the ‘22 season… but neglects to mention that Daniels wasn’t very good in ‘22 or really any season prior to this year.

 

There is the idea that Maye regressed, but it’s ignored he had no talent.

 

There is the convo that Daniels only had one good season, but that one good season was absolutely absurd. 
 

People hold it against JJ that Michigan was a running team but that team had the talent to be a running team more than a passing team, and as fans we always want our coaches to do what the personnel fits, don’t we? Why is that a major strike against McCarthy?

 

In my opinion Michigan had the best back in the class, why wouldn’t you use him and Edwards with an OL built to run the ball? 
 

Stop looking at stats. 
 

Watch plays. Watch the way these guys move. Watch their playmaking. Watch their arm under duress and with a clean pocket. Just watch. 
 

Hold them all to an equal standard. Instead of completion percentage, look at % of completable passes. Why? Because receivers can screw that stat up. 
 

Instead of interceptions, look at % of interceptable passes. Why? Because defenders drop them, too.

 

If you evaluate this stuff honestly, you’ll find that they all have strengths and all have weaknesses in their on field games. All of them.

 

If you evaluate physical traits the board changes. Maye sky rockets in value. Penix would also, if injuries and age weren’t such a concern (but they are, so he won’t). McCarthy and Daniels could both stand to gain some weight and Caleb is small for a high end QB prospect.

 

I keep saying this, and I mean it… if we get Maye, Daniels or McCarthy I’ll be happy. Why? I think all four, if put in a good situation, can develop and be a great quarterback.

 

(I also think all four, if put in a bad situation can totally **** the bed)

 

If pass playmaking is your thing it’s Caleb and it’s not close.

 

If speed is your thing it’s Daniels, and it’s not close.

 

If size/athletic combo is your thing, it’s Maye.

 

If unmolded clay who did a little of everything above well and also didn’t do a little of everything above well is your thing, it’s McCarthy.

 

im truly good with whoever.

[Est.1974]

6 minutes ago, KDawg said:

 

I keep saying this, and I mean it… if we get Maye, Daniels or McCarthy I’ll be happy. Why? I think all four, if put in a good situation, can develop and be a great quarterback.

Yep, it’s does boil down to this really. If we create that ‘good’ situation and do an outstanding job of developing the QB we take from those 3, well end up with a real good one.

[FootballZombie]

Keims vid on JDs pro Day was a good watch.

have not listened to his one on Maye yet but I will.

 

 

 

[Llevron]

I just actually think they like Maye the best. Once I saw him hit Dan Quinn with the 🤙🏻🤙🏻 it was over in my mind. I don’t think there is anything wrong with that either. 

[Koolblue13]

1 hour ago, KDawg said:

I am really struggling why propping up the guy you want means taking shots at the other guys… 

 

 

Welcome to the internet. If you think sports is bad,............