The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[kingdaddy]

I think, someday, we are going to look back and realize how much coaching ineptitude and adversity Sam Howell had to play through in his first shot at being an NFL starter. That doesn't mean Howell is gonna be a star, but I have a feeling he was so poorly equipped to go out there and perform due to his coaching that he looked much worse than the player he is. 

That's just a statement that I believe, not a comment on who we should draft or trade for. I really want to see what Kingsbury can do with Sam Howell, even if we do go QB at #2 overall.

[Warhead36]

Maye is nowhere near as raw as Love was coming out, that's an absurd comparison. 

 

Also, Love sat for 3 years because he was playing behind Aaron freaking Rodgers. Tell me who the Hall of Famer is on our team that'd be starting over a top 2 draft pick? 

29 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I think, someday, we are going to look back and realize how much coaching ineptitude and adversity Sam Howell had to play through in his first shot at being an NFL starter. That doesn't mean Howell is gonna be a star, but I have a feeling he was so poorly equipped to go out there and perform due to his coaching that he looked much worse than the player he is. 

That's just a statement that I believe, not a comment on who we should draft or trade for. I really want to see what Kingsbury can do with Sam Howell, even if we do go QB at #2 overall.

Possibly, but at the end of the day 5th round picks whos rookie contracts are already halfway up simply don't get very many chances.

 

Howell got dealt a bit of a raw hand but he got 18 games to start as a late round pick. Most don't get anywhere near that many. 

 

Nothing wrong if he ends up being a high end backup. That's better than most guys picked at his position.

[88Comrade2000]

26 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I think, someday, we are going to look back and realize how much coaching ineptitude and adversity Sam Howell had to play through in his first shot at being an NFL starter. That doesn't mean Howell is gonna be a star, but I have a feeling he was so poorly equipped to go out there and perform due to his coaching that he looked much worse than the player he is. 

That's just a statement that I believe, not a comment on who we should draft or trade for. I really want to see what Kingsbury can do with Sam Howell, even if we do go QB at #2 overall.

The 2023 Commanders were not a team that would lead Sam to have a realistic shot at having a nfl career.

 

You had a disastrous offensive line. You had a poor offensive coordinator. You had a lame duck head coach.

 

 

He was never going to succeed here. The best thing for him is to go somewhere with an aging veteran and sit and learn and then get a second shot when that veteran is done.  Jets would be good. Despite what Aaron says, I doubt he plays more than a couple of years.

[kingdaddy]

1 minute ago, 88Comrade2000 said:

The 2023 Commanders were not a team that would lead Sam to have a realistic shot at having a nfl career.

 

You had a disastrous offensive line. You had a poor offensive coordinator. You had a lame duck head coach.

 

 

He was never going to succeed here. The best thing for him is to go somewhere with an aging veteran and sit and learn and then get a second shot when that veteran is done.  Jets would be good. Despite what Aaron says, I doubt he plays more than a couple of years.

Given how many backups played multiple games last season, I'm willing to bet Sam gets more chances to crack the code and stick, especially given the reports that multiple teams are interested in trading for him. If you've ever played in high school, college or beyond, the comfort level of knowing the game is night and day from year one to year two/three. So much was thrown on his plate, he'll be better for it in the coming years. I'd wager a 6-pack that Sam is in the league way more than just a couple more years. 

[dunfer]

If sam was 6'3 id run it back and trade down.

 

Sam is still here and has every opportunity even if we draft a guy at 2. Sam is going to be able show all these new coaches hes the guy if he is. Still dont think a short qb works for long though

[kingdaddy]

4 minutes ago, dunfer said:

If sam was 6'3 id run it back and trade down.

 

Sam is still here and has every opportunity even if we draft a guy at 2. Sam is going to be able show all these new coaches hes the guy if he is. Still dont think a short qb works for long though

Did you know, Jalen Hurts is listed as being 6'1, Pat Mahomes 6'2., Tua, 6'1.....Sam Howell, 6'1. 

I actually thought Sam was shorter than this but this is what I found. 

[NOLA2DC]

38 minutes ago, Conn said:

You’re missing the point. Breakout age refers to when the player broke out in college…not when they break out in the NFL. A 19 year old player proving to be elite against older, more experienced players is more impressive than a 23-year old 5th year player looking elite against younger, less experienced players. 
 

When a young 21 year old prospect is good enough to enter the draft after three years out of HS, and he’s competing for draft position against a 23 year old prospect, it’s only fair to ask “wow, how good would this 21 year old be if he stayed in school for two more entire years before trying the NFL?” He’d likely be an even more elite prospect, setting aside potential injury—right?

I misunderstood the reference; I thought it was their pro breakout. If that's the context, is it suggesting that the earlier you break in college, you will be a better pro? It's almost like the NBA, where most top-drop draft picks in the US are one-and-done if they go to college. Is that analogous to the situation? I can accept that logic to a certain degree because in a pre-NIL world, the goal was to get to money as quickly as possible.  

[NOLA2DC]

50 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

I think, someday, we are going to look back and realize how much coaching ineptitude and adversity Sam Howell had to play through in his first shot at being an NFL starter. That doesn't mean Howell is gonna be a star, but I have a feeling he was so poorly equipped to go out there and perform due to his coaching that he looked much worse than the player he is. 

That's just a statement that I believe, not a comment on who we should draft or trade for. I really want to see what Kingsbury can do with Sam Howell, even if we do go QB at #2 overall.

Is that any different than any other QB? Where you land is critical to your future success. Steve Young in Tampa and Tannehill in Miami both bombed before moving to a better environment.  

[kingdaddy]

3 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

Is that any different than any other QB? Where you land is critical to your future success. Steve Young in Tampa and Tannehill in Miami both bombed before moving to a better environment.  

yep

[dunfer]

12 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Did you know, Jalen Hurts is listed as being 6'1, Pat Mahomes 6'2., Tua, 6'1.....Sam Howell, 6'1. 

I actually thought Sam was shorter than this but this is what I found. 

I dont buy that. tua and sam must have been wearing some tall cleats standing on concrete when they took those measurements

[Conn]

28 minutes ago, NOLA2DC said:

I misunderstood the reference; I thought it was their pro breakout. If that's the context, is it suggesting that the earlier you break in college, you will be a better pro? It's almost like the NBA, where most top-drop draft picks in the US are one-and-done if they go to college. Is that analogous to the situation? I can accept that logic to a certain degree because in a pre-NIL world, the goal was to get to money as quickly as possible.  

Not always. It’s a data point, but it trends as useful. Obviously an older prospect can end up better than a younger prospect, but it gives context to their college production and how impressive they were in relation to their peers. It’s not the end-all be-all, but it does correlate  with elite prospects/eventual elite pro players when you zoom out. There are always exceptions, but you can’t make a living betting on exceptions. It’s an excellent tiebreaker between similar prospects at worst, but it does tend to present in true blue chip prospects. 

[Always A Commander Never A Captain]

29 minutes ago, kingdaddy said:

Did you know, Jalen Hurts is listed as being 6'1, Pat Mahomes 6'2., Tua, 6'1.....Sam Howell, 6'1. 

I actually thought Sam was shorter than this but this is what I found. 

 

Tua was measured at 6'0 even. Exactly 6 feet.

 

Howell was measured at 6'0 and 5/8ths. He hits 6'1 from rounding.

 

Mahomes was measured at 6'2 and 1/8ths.

 

Jalen Hurts is exactly 6'1.

 

Those are official combine measurements. Howell is short. But you're also comparing him to mostly other short QB's, besides Mahomes. Mahomes is on the low side of average for NFL QB's, but still average. If we take a bell curve of QB heights, I believe most fall into the 6'2 to 6'3+ range. 6'4 and up is less common. 6'1 and lower is also less common.

 

Drew Brees remains the only short QB to succeed without heavy use of his legs.

[NOLA2DC]

16 minutes ago, Conn said:

Not always. It’s a data point, but it trends as useful. Obviously an older prospect can end up better than a younger prospect, but it gives context to their college production and how impressive they were in relation to their peers. It’s not the end-all be-all, but it does correlate  with elite prospects/eventual elite pro players when you zoom out. There are always exceptions, but you can’t make a living betting on exceptions. It’s an excellent tiebreaker between similar prospects at worst, but it does tend to present in true blue chip prospects. 

I agree it's a data point, but given the high number of QB failures, I'm not sure it has any utility. All these guys are blue-chip guys coming out of high school, and the college choice may not provide the ideal situation, so you transfer somewhere else or sit longer than planned. For example, if Arch Manning stays four years at Texas because Fromm didn't leave this year, does that undercut his breakout argument? I doubt he would come out with only one year as a starter. However, he may leave after one year just because he already knows he's going first overall. I'm not trying to harp on exceptions, I just consider this whole process a crap shoot(particularly with QBs), and nothing has any significant predictive weight.  

 

Edited March 9 by NOLA2DC

[Sacks 'n' Stuff]

If we nail this and it looks like we’ll have the opportunity to compete for a decade plus, I’m not sure if I’ll be able to handle it emotionally.

Edited March 9 by Sacks 'n' Stuff

[skinsfan66]

10 hours ago, kingdaddy said:

Given how many backups played multiple games last season, I'm willing to bet Sam gets more chances to crack the code and stick, especially given the reports that multiple teams are interested in trading for him. If you've ever played in high school, college or beyond, the comfort level of knowing the game is night and day from year one to year two/three. So much was thrown on his plate, he'll be better for it in the coming years. I'd wager a 6-pack that Sam is in the league way more than just a couple more years. 

2 different Offenses to learn in those 2 years too, 2 different coaches.  Hope he learned a lot from his time spent here and making it through those18 games( a feat in it self). Brissett could not even start the game he was supposed too. 

[HigSkin]

Keim said in his FA podcast that he didn't think they'd bring Brissett back.  

[DogofWar1]

12 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Keim said in his FA podcast that he didn't think they'd bring Brissett back.  

Nooooooooooooooooo

My best laid plans!

Curses!

 

Lol.

[Voice_of_Reason]

13 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Keim said in his FA podcast that he didn't think they'd bring Brissett back.  

That might be more because Brissett doesn’t want to come back and wants to go to a team where he has a legitimate shot to play.

 

I think they’re going to try and find a backup who has some experience with the air raid offense terminology, either college or pro, assuming they will use Kingsbury’s base offensive terminology for the offense before they modify it.

 

I don’t know who that is but it’s my guess.

[Skinsinparadise]

10 hours ago, Conn said:

Not always. It’s a data point, but it trends as useful. Obviously an older prospect can end up better than a younger prospect, but it gives context to their college production and how impressive they were in relation to their peers. It’s not the end-all be-all, but it does correlate  with elite prospects/eventual elite pro players when you zoom out. There are always exceptions, but you can’t make a living betting on exceptions. It’s an excellent tiebreaker between similar prospects at worst, but it does tend to present in true blue chip prospects. 

 

Especially relevant in the context that most of these older QBs weren't nearly as good at 21 as they are at 23.

 

 

 

 

[88Comrade2000]

29 minutes ago, HigSkin said:

Keim said in his FA podcast that he didn't think they'd bring Brissett back.  

He’s going back to New England probably.  The Pats May trade down and take qb elsewhere.

[Warhead36]

I wonder if we're offering Howell to any of the teams that need a QB. Would love to get even a 4th for him although that's unlikely. 

[Command The 414]

16 hours ago, RVAskins said:

My guess is the UFL.

I agree.. I can’t imagine anyone really seeing him (Mac Jones) as a true starting QB after the last 2 seasons, has to be as a backup and that not be a guarantee either… i might get blasted for this but if it came down to Mac Jones and Zack Wilson, I’d be trading for Wilson if I’m a GM… (not for the Commanders, but as a GM) 

[Warhead36]

2 minutes ago, Command The 414 said:

I agree.. I can’t imagine anyone really seeing him (Mac Jones) as a true starting QB after the last 2 seasons, has to be as a backup and that not be a guarantee either… i might get blasted for this but if it came down to Mac Jones and Zack Wilson, I’d be trading for Wilson if I’m a GM… (not for the Commanders, but as a GM) 

I mean that's like asking if I'd rather swallow poison or take a bullet to the head.

[Command The 414]

Just now, Warhead36 said:

I mean that's like asking if I'd rather swallow poison or take a bullet to the head.

I know I know … but sometimes we got to do the unimaginable 😝

[HigSkin]

42 minutes ago, Voice_of_Reason said:

That might be more because Brissett doesn’t want to come back and wants to go to a team where he has a legitimate shot to play.

 

I think they’re going to try and find a backup who has some experience with the air raid offense terminology, either college or pro, assuming they will use Kingsbury’s base offensive terminology for the offense before they modify it.

 

I don’t know who that is but it’s my guess.

 

One guy they do have on staff (asst QB coach) is David Blough.  Makes one wonder if they even plan to have an active roster mentor.

 

 

Edited March 9 by HigSkin