The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, illone said:

Ill speak for everyone here and make gross assumptions that are guaranteed to come true:

 

whoever is picked the entire fan base will support, buy jersey, etc.  
 

Doesnt mean we wont argue and throw things at the TV. Or post “he sucks” after a bad game. 
 

Similar to the Dan Quinn thing. He is here now and he is ours. 
 

QB will be the same. 
 

Plus most fan bases pound the table this time of year for the guy we think will help us the most. 
 

For me its Caleb or JJ. But if Maye is the pick I give it 1-2 weeks before he is my favorite player ever 😂

 

If its Daniels it might take longer but i’ll get there eventually. Cocaine will help 😃

If it’s Daniels I’m calling him a bust day 1. I gave Haskins (RIP) 2 games and that was too much leeway. 

[Est.1974]

1 minute ago, MartinC said:

He is not just on an island with that view he's on an asteroid orbiting Jupiter. Thats a heck of an outlier POV.

 

But if thats his view its legit. Its his view and hes entitled to it. Its hard to think many teams view Maye as QB6. It seems Maye is at worst QB3 on the majority of teams boards.

 

 

Agreed. And at this stage nobody knows how accurate or inaccurate that take can be. 

[illone]

1 minute ago, SoCalSkins said:

If it’s Daniels I’m calling him a bust day 1. I gave Haskins (RIP) 2 games and that was too much leeway. 

yea that was a bad pick and a worse situation for the kid. 
 

Im willing to give a little more leeway this time around since its an entirely new staff with a front office structure many of us have been asking for since 1999. 
 

At this point I just assume the QB will bust but at least we have the appropriate structure in place. 

[mistertim]

4 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

It might all be BS, we don’t know do we.

 

Of course it's BS. It's such a wild outlier that almost by definition it's BS. Sort of like the couple of randos who say Daniels is a 3rd rounder. It's BS, it's nonsense, probably clickbait. As SIP noted, Simms seems to enjoy having wildly different takes. I think it's more of a PR thing for him than anything else.

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, illone said:

yea that was a bad pick and a worse situation for the kid. 
 

Im willing to give a little more leeway this time around since its an entirely new staff with a front office structure many of us have been asking for since 1999. 
 

At this point I just assume the QB will bust but at least we have the appropriate structure in place. 

If Peter’s actually had a 5th round grade on him last year and picks him at 2 overall as his first pick as GM then we need some of the cocaine he’s snorting that you said would help us get through! 😂 

[FootballZombie]

6 minutes ago, illone said:

whoever is picked the entire fan base will support, buy jersey, etc.  

 

For me that part will be contingent on other non related circumstances.

 

But I'll totally buy in to supporting the QB as long as they bring home one of the big 3. Anybody else and I can not guarantee my levels of salt.

[Skinsinparadise]

14 minutes ago, Est.1974 said:

It might all be BS, we don’t know do we. That said, you are the one who shares all of that information with us, which is greatly appreciated, yet you really don’t like follow up comment or opinion that differs to yours. You seem very sensitive of Maye.
 

Regarding Maye - a number of days back it was claimed Peters and Kingsbury had Maye as QB1. My view being, if that is true, great, draft him and get to work.

 

Who the Hell knows where these QB careers end up. It’s incredibly subjective.

 

I think we all got our quirks on this thread.     

 

Maybe my memory is skewed but there are people here who seem to leave every negative comment on Jayden alone to die and also double down on any Maye negative comment to give it life.   While saying they aren't much biased one way or another.     When it feels that way to me (whether true or not) I tend to respond. 

 

I would guess more pro Maye people on this thread than Daniels.  But as far as bringing life to something that's been said negative on Maye -- it gets a lot more play than Daniels from my observation.   I can balance that out and spend more time posting the hits on Daniels but it feels a bit silly to do that.  So that's my button.  😎.

 

But I'll probably get bored with it soon.  I had like a 2 week span where I spent almost no time on this thread.  It felt good.  I might do that again, will see.  

 

As for big picture I got no angst about it because I like all three.   Caleb #1.  Maye #2.  Daniels #3.

Edited March 6 by Skinsinparadise

[illone]

2 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

If Peter’s actually had a 5th round grade on him last year and picks him at 2 overall as his first pick as GM then we need some of the cocaine he’s snorting that you said would help us get through! 😂 

 

its not a stretch to believe that grade, but I think that was a year or two ago which also makes sense. Im sure that grade has gone up some, but yea id be very shocked if his name is called while we are on the clock at #2. Very shocked. 

[illone]

10 minutes ago, FootballZombie said:

 

For me that part will be contingent on other non related circumstances.

 

But I'll totally buy in to supporting the QB as long as they bring home one of the big 3. Anybody else and I can not guarantee my levels of salt.

 

I stopped buying any and all merchandise related to the team back in the Vinny days, just saying the jersey will sell. 

 

Ultimately if the kid wins games and embarrasses our rivals, everyone will clap and Mondays will not suck.

[redskinss]

16 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

So I looked at QBs drafted since 2008 in top 5:

 

Bryce Young

CJ Stroud

Anthony Richardson

Trevor Lawrence

Zach Wilson

Trey Lance

Joe Burrow

Tua

Kyler Murray

Baker Mayfield 

Sam Darnold

Mitch Trubisky

Jared Goff

Wentz

Jamies Winston

Marriotta 

Blake Bortles

Andrew Luck

RG3

Cam Newton

Sam Bradford

Stafford

Matt Ryan

 

We can give an incomplete to Stroud, Richardson and Young even though Young is definitely a bust since they were drafted so recently. 
 

That leaves 20 guys. Burrow and Luck I would put at elite level. Cam, Matt Ryan and Stafford next tier below that. Tua, Trevor Lawrence and Kyler below that tier. Rest are busts

 

So 2 out of 20 elite. 10%
3 out of 20 decent. 15%

3 out of 20 above busts. 15%
12 out if 20 busts.  60%

 

Seems about right in my estimation. Decent player chance actually higher than I expected but given our franchise history let’s not get over optimistic! 

 

 

Just an opinion of mine but there's another factor that is difficult to quantify and that is, every draft that has a couple top 5 picks at quarterback aren't the same.

 

The positional value almost always pushes a couple guys Into the top 5 that wouldn't necessarily be there in other drafts and that makes them more likely to bust because they're being overdrafted. 

 

For example if williams, maye and daniels weren't in this draft, let's say they just don't exist, I'd bet  mcarthy, penix and nix would all be in the top 5 conversation and 2 of them probably would go top 5 with one going first.

 

There's so much quarterback talent in this draft that nobody is being pushed to the top because of positional value, the three guys in the top 3 are actually worthy of it this year and I think it increases the likelihood of success. 

 

That's not to say any one of them can't or won't bust but when factoring in the busts from the last 15 years of top 5 quarterbacks the ones who busted in down years for qb talent probably bring down the averages a little more than we would expect from the top 5 this year.

 

[The Consigliere]

28 minutes ago, illone said:

Ill speak for everyone here and make gross assumptions that are guaranteed to come true:

 

whoever is picked the entire fan base will support, buy jersey, etc.  
 

Doesnt mean we wont argue and throw things at the TV. Or post “he sucks” after a bad game. 
 

Similar to the Dan Quinn thing. He is here now and he is ours. 
 

QB will be the same. 
 

Plus most fan bases pound the table this time of year for the guy we think will help us the most. 
 

For me its Caleb or JJ. But if Maye is the pick I give it 1-2 weeks before he is my favorite player ever 😂

 

If its Daniels it might take longer but i’ll get there eventually. Cocaine will help 😃

Don't agree lol. Really don't. If I hate the pick, I hate the pick. I don't get in line, pretty much, ever. I will admit, when we make picks, I really, really, really hope I'm wrong about it being stupid, when I hate it, and sometimes that happens (McLaurin, some of those day 3 hits the past few years, rb's we've drafted that I've liked), and sometimes I'm probably right (Forbes, Jamin Davis, Chase over a QB was stupid etc, every TE we've taken the last decade). 

[mistertim]

2 hours ago, mac8887 said:

I don’t suggest or think we will trade for him, but I’m not as sure that he is a bust. He might pleasantly surprise whatever team he lands on. It won’t be this team. More than likeley he flames out at his next stop and hangs around the league as a backup.

 

The problem is that this is what we hear pretty much every time a team drafts a QB in the 1st round and then moves on from him quickly. And it never happens. It was said about Rosen, Darnold, and god knows how many other 1st round busts.  *

 

 

 

* I know you don't consider Fields a bust, and some others don't either, but IMO if a team picks a QB in the top half of the 1st round and moves on from him after his 3rd year, then he's sort of by definition a bust in my book. At the very lease he absolutely didn't live up to his draft position.

Edited March 6 by mistertim

[The Consigliere]

8 minutes ago, illone said:

 

I stopped buying any and all merchandise related to the team back in the Vinny days, just saying the jersey will sell. 

 

Ultimately if the kid wins games and embarrasses our rivals, everyone will clap and Mondays will not suck.

Whomever it is, if they hit big, we'll be happy, but initially, plenty of us won't be. I would've hated the Josh Allen pick intensely in '18, but I would've been cheering by '19, I own that. I just will freely admit, if I hate a pick, I hate it. The only time I tend to change my mind is with compelling evidence and arguments that I'm wrong, or sustained long term success on the field. 

[illone]

6 minutes ago, The Consigliere said:

Don't agree lol. Really don't. If I hate the pick, I hate the pick. I don't get in line, pretty much, ever. I will admit, when we make picks, I really, really, really hope I'm wrong about it being stupid, when I hate it, and sometimes that happens (McLaurin, some of those day 3 hits the past few years, rb's we've drafted that I've liked), and sometimes I'm probably right (Forbes, Jamin Davis, Chase over a QB was stupid etc, every TE we've taken the last decade). 

 

 

I should have put a qualifier in there: the kid gotta win too

 

If he sucks everyone will hate it.

 

Hey I already admitted I'd need illegal substances to cope if we pick Daniels... ❄️❄️❄️

[veteranskinsfan]

Food for Thought- - - There have been 38 first round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1909 starts in the NFL.

Their combined record is 1034 wins 1035 losses and 7 ties.  Only one of these quarterbacks has led their team to the Super Bowl- Mahomes.

 

So how many Mahomes are there is this draft?

[SoCalSkins]

1 minute ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Food for Thought- - - There have been 38 first round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1909 starts in the NFL.

Their combined record is 1034 wins 1035 losses and 7 ties.  Only one of these quarterbacks has led their team to the Super Bowl- Mahomes.

 

So how many Mahomes are there is this draft?

Burrow led his team to a Super Bowl he lost to Stafford who was also a first overall pick. You have your stats wrong.

[FootballZombie]

1 minute ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Food for Thought- - - There have been 38 first round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1909 starts in the NFL.

Their combined record is 1034 wins 1035 losses and 7 ties.  Only one of these quarterbacks has led their team to the Super Bowl- Mahomes.

 

3 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Burrow led his team to a Super Bowl he lost to Stafford who was also a first overall pick. You have your stats wrong.

 

Goff too

Matty ice...

 

There are a bunch.

[illone]

3 minutes ago, veteranskinsfan said:

Food for Thought- - - There have been 38 first round quarterbacks who have made a total of 1909 starts in the NFL.

Their combined record is 1034 wins 1035 losses and 7 ties.  Only one of these quarterbacks has led their team to the Super Bowl- Mahomes.

 

So how many Mahomes are there is this draft?

 

 

This feels wrong, are you sure about these numbers?

 

Just from memory, Burrow, Peyton Manning, Eli Manning, Wentz (partial credit), Goff, Stafford, Newton, Flacco, and Im sure I am missing some guys... 

 

Plenty of first rounders have gotten to the big game.

 

All that said, it's more than just the player.  It's also the implementation pathway that player has coming into the league, the people around him, staff, scheme, etc. Mahomes was in the perfect situation for him, had he come to Washington there is no way things would have turned out the same...

 

6 minutes ago, SoCalSkins said:

Burrow led his team to a Super Bowl he lost to Stafford who was also a first overall pick. You have your stats wrong.

 

 

Beat me to it lol.

[SoCalSkins]

Just now, FootballZombie said:

 

 

Goff too

Matty ice...

 

There are a bunch.

Exactly. I only pointed out one recent one to negate the argument rather than keep typing! 
 

Matty Ice is retired so I think he might be talking about active quarterbacks winning the Super Bowl with team who drafted them in the first. 
 

Even then Rodgers did it with the Packers. So the stat is all kinds of wrong. 

[Skinsinparadise]

 

JDins5 (@JDins_5): Do you think we’ll see a lot of competition between teams to move into the two to eight range with a handful wanting their favorite QB and another handful wanting their favorite WR? (Not to mention O line)

I think the Chicago Bears are taking USC’s Caleb Williams at No. 1. Then the Washington Commanders and New England Patriots will have a lot of action on their picks; after North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are picked, there will be a dropoff (something the teams that like Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy would obviously dispute).

I also believe that, while the likelihood is both stick and take quarterbacks, the Commanders and Patriots will listen to offers for those picks.

[bird_1972]

55 minutes ago, RWJ said:

More entertainment than pure analyst.  Fun to listen to but that's all they do for me.  Logan needs to see if he can get on the coaching staff as an intern.  

 

I think Logan Paulsen is really impressive. 

 

He said he wanted to work for Quinn.

[veteranskinsfan]

Here's  a list of gems since 1990 taken in the early first round:

 

Andre Ware, #7 (1990)

Rick Mirer,   #2 (1993)

Trent Dilfer, #6 (1994)

Akili Smith,  #3 (1999)

Tim Couch, #1  (1999)

Joey Harrington, #2 (2001)

David Carr, #1   (2002)

Vince Young, #3 (2006)

Sam Bradford, #1 (2010)

Blake Bortles  #8 (2011)

Mitch Trubisky, #2 (2017)

Zach Wilson,   #2 (2021)

Trey Lance, #3 (2021)

[veteranskinsfan]

Albert Breer was asked if Marvin Harrison would get to being the 4th pick in this draft and he said most likely he would not go lower than the 4th pick.

Here is what else he said about Harrison:

 

"We’re overcomplicating this, the same way we’re overcomplicating the quarterback discussion with Williams. Harrison has been, by a distance, the best receiver in college football in each of the last two years. He’s big and fast with rare ball skills, has a work ethic that’s become legendary in the Ohio State program and a strong character. He’s the best to come out at his position in more than a decade.

[illone]

6 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

 

I think Logan Paulsen is really impressive. 

 

He said he wanted to work for Quinn.

 

 

I like Paulsen, but he and Smoot are homers of the highest order.  Ashburn Sydrome is their normal temperature.

 

I'd trust Brian Mitchell takes long before Paulsen, but I do agree that he might be pining for a coaching job.

[FootballZombie]

13 minutes ago, bird_1972 said:

I think Logan Paulsen is really impressive. 

 

I like Logan's breakdowns.... when he is not talking about our team.

He is very good at breaking down other teams and explaining what they are doing, or are trying. I like how he looks over players in the draft too.

 

 

He can just be problematic when addressing our team b/c he has a tendency to pick a position group and apply ALL the fluff. Man stepped into the "you sound like a fool" solo que line with his recent takes on some of our TE groups or OL groups... and it was obvious to even casual fans.

Edited March 6 by FootballZombie