The Official QB Thread- JD5 taken #2. Randall 2.0 or Bayou Bob? Mariotta and Hartman forever. Fromm cut

[Skinsinparadise]

 

 

[skinsfan66]

49 minutes ago, DogofWar1 said:

well hopefully our oline improves between now and opening day, haha.

 

There's some solid OL talent out there this draft, wouldn't be surprised if we went OL on both our 2nds and got solid dudes.

There was even more talent last year. We got zero solid dudes.

1 hour ago, Warhead36 said:

I'd happily trade Howell for a 4th. We don't need two young developmental QBs and I don't like the Maye/Howell friendship dynamic. Could make things awkward in the meeting rooms.

Kind of like Kirk looking over Bob's shoulder.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, DogofWar1 said:

 

I mean, in fairness, the teams picking 1-3 tend to not be very good and are drafting a QB out of desperate need.  It being the norm that QBs start year 1 doesn't make it the optimal choice.

 

Mahomes sat pretty much the first whole season, Jackson sat roughly half of one, Allen sat for like 5 games, Goff sat for half a season, Tua came in week 6.

 

Ultimately, you want them to come in ready, and not push them out the gate too early.  If Maye/Daniels are looking ready for prime time immediately, run em, but the CJ Stroud's of the world are pretty few and far between.

Mahomes and Jackson were not top 3, Second tier QB's. They were not blue chippers.  All 3 blue chippers from last year started. 1Good, 1Bad, 1Hurt.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, dunfer said:

yeah sitting a guy when your team and oline is **** isnt a bad thing

Why draft a blue chipper then? 

[dunfer]

25 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

 

Kind of like Kirk looking over Bob's shoulder.

this is just fan created housewives of dc ****. If another qb in the room is too much competition and makes your golden child uncomfortable, then wtf..if thats a situation youre ****ed

2 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Why draft a blue chipper then? 

for the next decade instead of ruining him his rookie year by getting beat up behind a terrible line

 

Edited February 20 by dunfer

[Rogue Jedi]

 

Hot take.

[skinsfan66]

1 hour ago, ThatNFLChick said:

 

Thats my thought, his value will only go down from here and getting a 4th for a 5th round pick would be ideal. It is HIGHLY unlikely his value will increase and if we're not starting him we should get something for him. He only has 2 years left on his rookie contract so we're not saving that much. 

 

Also some Kirk stuff that may effect FA for everyone:

 

 

To the highest bidder like always. (Kirk)

Edited February 20 by skinsfan66

[ST_DaGoat21]

Can’t wait for Daniels Disciples to lose their minds over this one.

[Skinsinparadise]

23 hours ago, Anselmheifer said:

This might also be the meme for all of us rooting for us to lose out to get the second pick, to finally get a shot at our franchise QB, only to read a million posts about trading down to wait for a crappy QB class, or for McCarthy. People just get comfortable not having nice things. Like a bunch of lifetime convicts finally getting out and not being able to handle it. 

 

I like the analogy.  We are so afraid of what could go wrong outside of prison that it feels to some safer in prison.

 

For me reading some of the posts it makes me think of business.  I run my own business and know a bunch of colleagues who likewise run theirs.  Some, not most, are VERY risk averse -- that's what i equate this too -- they'd rather be stuck in a C plus range than shoot for an A if that shot if it misses can bring them down to a D.   

 

Breer below who is plugged in.

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/19/takeaways-chiefs-parade-shooting-draft-justin-fields-kirk-cousins

If the Bears, Commanders or Patriots are willing to deal out of the Top 3, there will be a hot market for their picks. The reason why, as you’d expect, is the makeup of the quarterback class. USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are considered a cut above the second tier (made up of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.) at this early juncture. Which increases the chances QBs go 1-2-3, and the value of picks in that range.

There are a couple of pieces of history to examine here that can serve as your guide.

The first is the rate at which Top 3 picks are actually moved. In the last 10 drafts, seven teams traded up into, or within, the Top 3. Six of the seven moves were for quarterbacks. The seventh was the Texans’ trade up last year for Will Anderson Jr., and a quarterback was part of that equation, since Houston had just taken C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. So in this era, teams really only trade into that range if it involves landing a young, potential franchise quarterback.

The second piece is the premium paid for such high picks that result in teams landing such quarterbacks of the future. Five of the seven involved a first-rounder the following year. In one of the two that didn’t, the Colts got two current-year second-round picks (37th and 49th overall), plus a second-rounder the following year from the Jets, while only dropping three spots in the draft order. In the other, the Niners got two thirds (one current year, one the following year) and a fourth from the Bears for dropping one spot.

So that tells you the moves up would have to be for a quarterback, and they’d be expensive for the team moving up.

Then, you can look at the teams that might be in play to move up—and you can easily come up with scenarios where the teams picking 6 (Giants), 7 (Titans), 8 (Falcons), 11 (Vikings), 12 (Broncos) and 13 (Raiders) could have an interest in making that move. Which tells you there very well should be a market for one of the first three picks, and even moreso if, say. only one of the top three teams is willing to move its pick.

Now, my guess would be the Bears stay where they are and take Williams at 1. Washington, then, would probably have the ability to move its pick, though my guess would be the Commanders probably stick and take a quarterback, too. And they could do that soon, in selling another team the choice between Maye and Daniels. It’s a little trickier for New England, given that, if you try to move the pick before draft day, then the trading team would have to be comfortable with all three quarterbacks. But Miami pulled it off in 2021.

Regardless, those three picks have very real, premium value right now. And my guess would be there’ll be at least some preliminary trade talks on them, whether it’s coming from the teams holding the picks or teams looking to get them, in Indianapolis next week.

Edited February 20 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

14 minutes ago, dunfer said:

this is just fan created housewives of dc ****. If another qb in the room is too much competition and makes your golden child uncomfortable, then wtf..if thats a situation youre ****ed

for the next decade instead of ruining him his rookie year by getting beat up behind a terrible line

 

Seems like everybody wants a backup option for the Blue Chipper. You pull the trigger, you got to go for it, no second thoughts. Why bring a vet in to hold your Blue Chipper's hand? All 3 Blue Chippers started last year.  I can see letting a 2nd tier QB maybe sit for a year.  

[ThatNFLChick]

2 minutes ago, ST_DaGoat21 said:

Can’t wait for Daniels Disciples to lose their minds over this one.

 

Bless your heart for thinking someone is about to sit and watch a 2 hour video. 

 

6 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Seems like everybody wants a backup option for the Blue Chipper. You pull the trigger, you got to go for it, no second thoughts. Why bring a vet in to hold your Blue Chipper's hand? All 3 Blue Chippers started last year.  I can see letting a 2nd tier QB maybe sit for a year.  

 

Because they still have flaws. Just because they are taken early doesn't mean they are a perfect prospect. 

[dunfer]

4 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Seems like everybody wants a backup option for the Blue Chipper. You pull the trigger, you got to go for it, no second thoughts. Why bring a vet in to hold your Blue Chipper's hand? All 3 Blue Chippers started last year.  I can see letting a 2nd tier QB maybe sit for a year.  

Id rather throw sam or jacoby out there until i saw it was safe. we arent going to win a superbowl next year so why throw caution to the wind

[Skinsinparadise]

23 minutes ago, ST_DaGoat21 said:

Can’t wait for Daniels Disciples to lose their minds over this one.

 

The Drake Maye part is from 1:21.  For people like me, @Going Commando, @clskinsfan, @Koolblue13 among others its a great watch.  I've said this about totally different subject based draft conversations about other players over the years, Sikkema from PFF is one of my favorite draft analyists.  

 

But watching that got me even more jacked about Maye.  Among their points Washington has been waiting to draft a prospect like this at QB forever, no brainer choice at #2, no debate, franchise QB. 

Edited February 20 by Skinsinparadise

[skinsfan66]

1 minute ago, dunfer said:

Id rather throw sam or jacoby out there until i saw it was safe. we arent going to win a superbowl next year so why throw caution to the wind

Of course if he cannot beat out either you have no choice. But Brissett is not cheap and may move on still do not want another castoff coming in.

[ThatNFLChick]

Just now, skinsfan66 said:

Of course if he cannot beat out either you have no choice. But Brissett is not cheap and may move on still do not want another castoff coming in.

 

Sam did not play better than Brisett down the stretch so I am very confused about why he would be competing again. 

 

Also there is the factor of th rest of the team. I think they liked Sam but you could feel their frustrations when Sam was under center, especially compared to Brisett (who actually moved the ball down the field)

[dunfer]

3 minutes ago, skinsfan66 said:

Of course if he cannot beat out either you have no choice. But Brissett is not cheap and may move on still do not want another castoff coming in.

im more worried about the line. id rather let the line figure itself out a little before dropping our rookie franchise guy behind it

Edited February 20 by dunfer

[Warhead36]

10 minutes ago, dunfer said:

im more worried about the line and putting our future franchise qb behind it. id rather let the line figure itself out a little before dropping our rookie franchise guy behind it

Sack #s are as reflective of the QB as the OL. A good QB makes an OL better automatically.

[DogofWar1]

2 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Sack #s are as reflective of the QB as the OL. A good QB makes an OL better automatically.

And of scheme.  OC can help get plays where the ball comes out faster.

 

Just a lot of concerns alllllll around there.

[NOLA2DC]

36 minutes ago, ST_DaGoat21 said:

Can’t wait for Daniels Disciples to lose their minds over this one.

No need to be so dramatic, it does not change the view of anyone who thinks Daniels is ahead of Maye. I've never heard of these guys, and the only consensus I've seen among analysts is all three represent the top tier, and the other guys are a notch below.  I think we're taking Maye and I'm cool with that. 

[DogofWar1]

Have y'all seen the Pocket Presence breakdown of Daniels' Bama game?  I assume it got posted in here already.

[dunfer]

8 minutes ago, Warhead36 said:

Sack #s are as reflective of the QB as the OL. A good QB makes an OL better automatically.

yeah sure but its a rookie. he can make the o-line look good when we know weve got a decent oline. Sam or Jacoby can figure that out first is all im saying. Id hate for coaches to have to pull the rookie to protect him or even worse they waited too long

[clskinsfan]

27 minutes ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

The Drake Maye part is from 1:21.  For people like me, @Going Commando, @clskinsfan, @Koolblue13 among others its a great watch.  I've said this about totally different subject based draft conversations about other players over the years, Sikkema from PFF is one of my favorite draft analyists.  

 

But watching that got me even more jacked about Maye.  Among their points Washington has been waiting to draft a prospect like this at QB forever, no brainer choice at #2, no debate, franchise QB. 

Yep. It took me watching more games from Maye, Especially his 2022 stuff to realize how special he really is. The only thing that would be better than picking Maye at 2 for me would be Chicago thinking Maye is the better choice and us landing Williams at 2 instead. The most exciting thing is that for the first time in over a decade we are about to be out of QB hell imo. And we dont have to waste any draft capitol to get there. 

[MartinC]

2 hours ago, SkinsFan70s said:

I honestly don't buy this  Bro. First it is too early and then every year, there are can't miss QB prospects and no matter the situation, a QB-needy team trades up to take them. I am sure there will be another can't miss, top-10 QB when it's all said and done, but I am not an expert so there is that 😂

Yeah but that QB needy team doesn’t trade up with another QB needy team.

[ThatNFLChick]

I assume he has been informed that they will be drafting a QB. I think its in the Bears best interest not to wait. 

 

 

5 minutes ago, MartinC said:

Yeah but that QB needy team doesn’t trade up with another QB needy team.

 

I mean did people think that about us when we passed on Tua and Herbert to take Chase Young when we very clearly needed a QB? Also, besides the Raiders, the other reported trade up partners would be in the NFC

Edited February 20 by ThatNFLChick

[RWJ]

1 hour ago, Skinsinparadise said:

 

I like the analogy.  We are so afraid of what could go wrong outside of prison that it feels to some safer in prison.

 

For me reading some of the posts it makes me think of business.  I run my own business and know a bunch of colleagues who likewise run theirs.  Some, not most, are VERY risk averse -- that's what i equate this too -- they'd rather be stuck in a C plus range than shoot for an A if that shot if it misses can bring them down to a D.   

 

Breer below who is plugged in.

 

 

https://www.si.com/nfl/2024/02/19/takeaways-chiefs-parade-shooting-draft-justin-fields-kirk-cousins

If the Bears, Commanders or Patriots are willing to deal out of the Top 3, there will be a hot market for their picks. The reason why, as you’d expect, is the makeup of the quarterback class. USC’s Caleb Williams, North Carolina’s Drake Maye and LSU’s Jayden Daniels are considered a cut above the second tier (made up of Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Washington’s Michael Penix Jr.) at this early juncture. Which increases the chances QBs go 1-2-3, and the value of picks in that range.

There are a couple of pieces of history to examine here that can serve as your guide.

The first is the rate at which Top 3 picks are actually moved. In the last 10 drafts, seven teams traded up into, or within, the Top 3. Six of the seven moves were for quarterbacks. The seventh was the Texans’ trade up last year for Will Anderson Jr., and a quarterback was part of that equation, since Houston had just taken C.J. Stroud with the second overall pick. So in this era, teams really only trade into that range if it involves landing a young, potential franchise quarterback.

The second piece is the premium paid for such high picks that result in teams landing such quarterbacks of the future. Five of the seven involved a first-rounder the following year. In one of the two that didn’t, the Colts got two current-year second-round picks (37th and 49th overall), plus a second-rounder the following year from the Jets, while only dropping three spots in the draft order. In the other, the Niners got two thirds (one current year, one the following year) and a fourth from the Bears for dropping one spot.

So that tells you the moves up would have to be for a quarterback, and they’d be expensive for the team moving up.

Then, you can look at the teams that might be in play to move up—and you can easily come up with scenarios where the teams picking 6 (Giants), 7 (Titans), 8 (Falcons), 11 (Vikings), 12 (Broncos) and 13 (Raiders) could have an interest in making that move. Which tells you there very well should be a market for one of the first three picks, and even moreso if, say. only one of the top three teams is willing to move its pick.

Now, my guess would be the Bears stay where they are and take Williams at 1. Washington, then, would probably have the ability to move its pick, though my guess would be the Commanders probably stick and take a quarterback, too. And they could do that soon, in selling another team the choice between Maye and Daniels. It’s a little trickier for New England, given that, if you try to move the pick before draft day, then the trading team would have to be comfortable with all three quarterbacks. But Miami pulled it off in 2021.

Regardless, those three picks have very real, premium value right now. And my guess would be there’ll be at least some preliminary trade talks on them, whether it’s coming from the teams holding the picks or teams looking to get them, in Indianapolis next week.

It's a tough call.  Not directed at you, SIP but we need OL.  We can get one of the top guys trading down with the Falcons, Jets (I think they need a QB too) and Vikes and get one of the better OL in the draft.  Our fixes on D are in FA. Then who do you take at QB?  As many have mentioned, each of the top 3 QBs has his own issues here and there.  Purdy was selected in the 7th round.  It wouldn't surprise me to see Peters take two QBs in the draft.  Anything is possible.  I think a trade down or two will happen if not, three.  Peters is Beathard in the mid/late rounds.  I'm just saying.  

Edited February 20 by RWJ